To compete with the D200 the 40D will need more than just 10 megapixels, the D200 is a lot more body than the 30D never mind the sensor. Here is me hoping that weather sealing and a serious AF upgrade comes to the 5D!
fotographa wrote:
To recoup the development costs they would probably each cost double what the current 24/2.8, 35/2 or 50/1.4 cost (and most likely weight in at twice as much too). These are some of the best value lenses in the range - if you consider price, IQ, size/weight.
Besides, these would then cut into the more lucrative market of L-series primes (24, 35, 50 at least) which perhaps does not make marketing sense.
I agree ring USM and IF are great to have (and affordable in some lenses like EF-S 60 macro) but for me the old lenses are still great value for money, and do everything a prime should....Show more →
I had heard a rumor last fall that Canon was updating a few of the micro-motor wide-angle lenses like the 24/2.8, 35/2, and possibly the 50/1.4 with USM. If they revise them all as a group and don't make major changes to the optics, I don't see a major cost change. Of course, none would be cheaper, but I would hpe that the increase wouldn't be huge. These are bargain lenses in terms of cost vs. performance.
my speculation is that in 2007 we will see a 1Ds mkIII with 22-24 mp.
im hoping for a merged 1D/1Ds that will have 24mp and can shoot at 8.5 fps in reduced res mode. but i dont think we will see a merged camera in 07.
being im a wide wide angle shooter ive heard some rumblings about a canon ef 10-24 F/2.8 L
if this lens is released and its sharp across the board that will be heaven sent, even an updated 14L thats sharp across the board would be great.
But ... Even the EF-S 10-22mm, with its smaller projection circle only manages f/3.5-4.5. The only thing that comes close is the Sigma 12-24 f/4.5-5.6 and that one aint small, even at those slow apertures. So, appreciate the optical challenges that you have to take.
A Full frame ultra wide rectilineair 10-24 mm zoom with constant max f/2.8 will make the "Handgrenade Class" 50/1L and 85/1.2L look compact and feel lightweight.
As much as I understand how great a lens like this would be, I don't see anything with those specifications happen anytime soon. If it is possible, you may end up in 50/1L or 200/1.8L price territory because an optical challenge like this will be big and heavy. And very pricey.
yes i can appreciate the huge challeges involved to make an ultra wide recilinear sharp across the board, im sure canon can make a 14mm just as sharp as the famous zeiss 15mm but what it would cost the consumer would be too much to justify in canon's eyes
Re EF-S: Canon need two 'entry' level cameras both of which will support EF-S. They have this in place already - the xxxD and the xxD range. I don't think that's going to change - anyone wanting their 30D to be considered above entry (as in consumer) is dreaming! Therefore the 40D (and 50D, 60D etc) will stick to an APS-C sensor. At least for the forseable future.
Canon has relied on sensor leadership to sell bodies (at least to many first time DSLR owners - myself included). The competition is catching up fast though. As such, Canon needs to stop playing at body upgrades and give the users what they want. Unfortuantely, we all have different requirements!
What I'd like to see, would be the 40D and the 5DmkII being essentially the same camera, with only the sensor differing, and both offering at least the following: (in no particular order)
~21 point AF (no hidden points) with f2.8's around the 1/3 intersections.
Spot metering linked to active focus point.
5 FPS for both models.
Built in GPS.
Built in wireless flash transmitter.
Custom front & rear dials (I hate changing Aperture with the rear dial in M - too confusing)
Customise the print button (obviously!)
Partial weather sealing (at least round the built in flash which is an obvious water trap, and the top buttons)
MORE DR!!!!!
Things that would be nice:
Focus distance in EXIF (that'll test the AF accuracy!).
Wireless image transfer.
Built in flash memory for about 20 shots (when card runs out)
Somehow, I doubt that any of the above will happen Shame on Canon...
I cant believe a 10-24L f2.8. It would have to be a fisheye zoom to be possible, wouldn´t it?
But I will sell my 15 fish and 16-35L to get it, fisheye or not, if it actually turns out to be true somehow.
As much as I like to read the semi-technical musings of others, this thread is about what can be expected for PMA. And with the total lack of any solid information, we'll have to do with educated guesswork. But educated guesswork IS NOT NECESSARILY the same as a wish-list.
This isn't directly about what we would like to have. This pre-PMA speculation is, ultimately, about what Canon thinks its in their own best interest for us to be able to have. That's quite a subtile big difference
Tentacle wrote:
As much as I like to read the semi-technical musings of others, this thread is about what can be expected for PMA.
I'm expecting Canon to respond to other manufacturers, with features that are missing at the moment...
And with the total lack of any solid information, we'll have to do with educated guesswork. But educated guesswork IS NOT NECESSARILY the same as a wish-list.
My educated guess is that Canon will respond by adding features that people feel are missing... especially when they're already available in competing models.
This isn't directly about what we would like to have. This pre-PMA speculation is, ultimately, about what Canon thinks its in their own best interest for us to be able to have. That's quite a subtile big difference
The list I gave, in my opinion, outlines features that Canon DSLRs should have, but don't. If these features are present in competing cameras, and the public buys cameras because of these features, then it IS in Canon's best interest to provide them too. My list wasn't a 'wouldn't it be nice' wish list - more of a 2007 requirement list.
And exactly what part of the EF10-24 f2.8 is educated guesswork? Sounds like PURE fantasy to me
At this point in time, there is exactly ZERO information available as to what Canon will be releasing in 2007. Unless of course you look at the competition, which does give us a clue - like 10MP, anti-dust devices which was included in the mass market model... because of the competition...
Here is a piece of guesswork that tries to be educated, mostly copied from another recent post of mine:
Canon’s DSLR range works fine at both ends: 400D sells well, and 1Ds has not yet any 35 mm size competitors. So there seems to be no urgent need to upgrade either in 1H2007, providing next upgrades in the middle range don’t affect the ends too much.
In middle range Canon has
- 1D against Nikon D2 models
- 5D disturbing 1Ds sales to some degree
- 30D against Nikon D200
each with a different sized sensor!
If Canon sees the middle range diversity as a problem (= if they need to get more volume benefit for them), one way to sort it might be a modular structure, which could mean 2 to 6 variants from the above by mixing a few interchangeable modules (in production phase), i.e. max 2 bodies (consumer & pro) and max 3 sensors (APS-C, APS-H and FF).
A simplification of this idea would be to offer just 2 versions with one pro style body, alternatively with a 1.6x crop and a FF sensor. Such a pro style body could be something between current 1D brick and 30D/5D small body. Natural choices for those 1.6x and FF sensors are already in production, in 400D and in 5D, but both used at 3 fps. If the FF sensor in such a body would not have more pixels than 5D, it would not directly step on 1Ds' toes.
In this line-up, the current 5D could stay in production as a lower cost FF version as long as there is demand for it, or it could be eventually replaced with an even lower cost FF version.
There would still be room for an über camera to replace 1Ds at a later time, with or without a high speed crop mode.
Koivulehto wrote:
[...] Natural choices for those 1.6x and FF sensors are already in production, in 400D and in 5D, but both used at 3 fps. If the FF sensor in such a body would not have more pixels than 5D, it would not directly step on 1Ds' toes.[...]
No, those sensors are not in production today. A 400D sensor has 2 channel read-out, clocked at 28 MHz, good enough for 3 fps. If you want to put that sensor into a pro body with 8 or 10 FPS, you have to go to 6 or 8 channels which means ... exactly, a sensor re-design Because you will not be able to triple the sample rate frequency just like that.
The same is true for the 5D sensor. Its current form could not be used or a Pro version without a re-design.
(400D sensor: 2 channel output, at about 28 MHz, 5D is 4 channel, about 18 MHz, 1DsII and 1DII(N) are both 8 channel, 16 MHz. Haven't seen info on the 20/30D, but that could be 4 channel at roughly 19 MHz. 350D sensor has a 2 channel output at about 22 or 23 MHz.)
1DsMkIII - long overdue, and will be the star of PMA. Happy Birthday EOS! Probably with much sought after DR increase.
5DmkII - Bound to get a resolution increase, god knows it needs it (!!!!). With better DR.
1DMkIII - More pixels - but not too many.
40D - I'm sure Canon will wait until the 30D's 18 months are up, and shoehorn a 12MP sensor in there just to beat Nikon to it - you can bet your life the D300 will be 12MP.
Both 1 series will be essentially the same camera, just different sensors - Reduces production costs. I don't think both 1 series will be announced at the same time though - it's good marketing for Canon to wait a while and make two big splashes in 2007.
Note, I'm predicting both FF cameras will have increased DR - maybe the carrot Canon needs to persuade all us croppers(and Nikonians etc) to go FF. They'll then slag off the competition with "cropped sensors = crap sensors", or words to that effect...
I'm still certain the 40D won't appear till autumn, if only because of production reasons... However, having said that, for all we know the new 1Ds has been sitting in boxes waiting to ship for the lst 6 months or more.
As to lenses... well, I expect the 24-70 to gain IS + 30% on the price, the 100-400 to get a makeover - newer IS plus loose the push-pull design + 30% on price, the 400 f5.6 to gain IS + 50% on price, and most likely a new longer EF-S lens along the 18-200 lines (maybe a bit longer though, say, 50-200 f3.5-5.6, f4 would be nice but maybe too expensive).
NOTE:
It is possible that Canon have some super new sensor design waiting to go into the new 1Ds (foveonesque), but to comment on that would be UNEDUCATED and to be honest, as much as I would LOVE to see this happen, I don't think it's going to - not this time around.
EDIT: Tentacle - no problem, I'm just enjoying trying to differentiate educated & uneducated. I'm bored and it's amusing me!
Edited by Mark Shaxted on Jan 15, 2007 at 10:28 PM GMT
Well my prediction is that Canon will do something *big* ... à la new revolutionary, designed from scratch digital - with new nomenclature, new sensortech and whatever new idea Canon can come up with. This is Canon's 70th birthday and the EOS-systems 20th birthday remember? ... gotta celebrate
So here are my guesses:
The 400D will be the last of the X/XX/XXXD digitals
The 30D will evolve into the new übersemi-pro camera with 8 MP/(16 MP Bayer equiv) and 1,3 crop priced lower than a D200. Foveonesque type sensor and Prograde AF.
The 1D(s)II will merge into a new wunderkamera in the line of the 1Dmk3tc (true color) rumor previously mentioned.
Question is now: which one will they introduce first? Will they start with the middle of road like they did with the D30? Or will they assume their marketleader position and start out with the biggest guns - like Nikon did in '99.
Mark Shaxted wrote:
I'm still certain the 40D won't appear till autumn, if only because of production reasons...
They do that and they're kissing a lot of money goodbye. I can't see them doing that. The more likely event is a 40D that is just a 400D sensor and DIGIC III in the 30D body. It may be a letdown for us, but it would be the best business decision for Canon.
It must be worrying for Canon how consistently reviews are placing the 400D/30D behind the D80/D200 even in the area of IQ only above ISO 800 do the Canons pull ahead. Given the sales figures too, I expect a 12 month cycle for the 30D as it really is a 2 year cycle given the 30D was really a point release for the 20D. But only 10.2MP IMO, Canon won't be able to deliver 12MP in a 1.6x crop and maintain it's lead in the noise stakes and DR will suffer too.
40D and 1D III @ PMA, 5D II and 1Ds III in September.
EF-S 18-200 f/3.5-5.6 IS
16-50 f/2.8L IS
EF-S 8mm fisheye
Pixel Perfect wrote:
It must be worrying for Canon how consistently reviews are placing the 400D/30D behind the D80/D200 even in the area of IQ only above ISO 800 do the Canons pull ahead. Given the sales figures too, I expect a 12 month cycle for the 30D as it really is a 2 year cycle given the 30D was really a point release for the 20D. But only 10.2MP IMO, Canon won't be able to deliver 12MP in a 1.6x crop and maintain it's lead in the noise stakes and DR will suffer too.
40D and 1D III @ PMA, 5D II and 1Ds III in September.
EF-S 18-200 f/3.5-5.6 IS
16-50 f/2.8L IS
EF-S 8mm fisheye...Show more →
That makes the most sense to me. There's no real reason for Canon to upgrade the 5D at this point...maybe cutting the price would make it a better alternative to the D200 to first time buyers, but upgrading it wouldn't achieve anything from a business standpoint.
Shame on Canon...
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