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Archive 2006Hassy's big mistake
p.4 #1Hassy's big mistake
shirozina wrote:
MF digital is a small market - mistakes like this can sink a company quite easily. Unlike the Microsoft example I don't think Hassleblad quite has the market dominance required to succede with this anti competative strategy and unlike the PC market ( back then) the MF digital market is likely shrinking rather than rapidly expanding. MF digital has not been success it was meant to be IMO - most working pro's who used MF film cameras for their work have now found that Canon FF DSLR's do the job just as well and have no need to make the...Show more →
To say that the digiMF market is not a success and is shrinking sounds very wrong.
The limiting factor is how fast the chip manufacturers are able to deliver the sensors. Both Leaf and PhaseOne are selling more then they can deliver and there are waiting lists from each manufacturer.
Most pros I know are shooting with MF digital, and several of them have been the 1ds route before finally going back to MF. In additon 5x4 is slowly replaced by Digibacks on smaller cameras like the Cambo Wide etc.
I dont think that digiMF has ever been more healthy. Just look at all the buzz about the Hy6, H3D, new Phase backs, new Leaf backs and etc. A few years ago, these news would never have been so widely discussed as they are now.
MF digital is a small market - mistakes like this can sink a company quite easily. Unlike the Microsoft example I don't think Hassleblad quite has the market dominance required to succede with this anti competative strategy and unlike the PC market ( back then) the MF digital market is likely shrinking rather than rapidly expanding. MF digital has not been success it was meant to be IMO - most working pro's who used MF film cameras for their work have now found that Canon FF DSLR's do the job just as well and have no need to make the...Show more →
To say that the digiMF market is not a success and is shrinking sounds very wrong.
The limiting factor is how fast the chip manufacturers are able to deliver the sensors. Both Leaf and PhaseOne are selling more then they can deliver and there are waiting lists from each manufacturer.
Most pros I know are shooting with MF digital, and several of them have been the 1ds route before finally going back to MF. In additon 5x4 is slowly replaced by Digibacks on smaller cameras like the Cambo Wide etc.
I dont think that digiMF has ever been more healthy. Just look at all the buzz about the Hy6, H3D, new Phase backs, new Leaf backs and etc. A few years ago, these news would never have been so widely discussed as they are now.
Oct 02, 2006 at 04:14 PM
p.4 #2Hassy's big mistake
foto-z wrote:
Not yet. I believe the only limiting factor was price and that will inevitably continue to drop.
I dont see price as the limiting factor. MF digital is not really that expensive at all, at least if you are a pro shooting with it every day. Buying a new car for your Pizza delivery service is more expensive..
Oh, and my Profoto and computer systems are all more expensive then my Leaf A75. I think the price is pretty correct. As they are selling all they can make.. why reduce the prices?
Would I love lower prices? Sure... But its about what is the right price for the market...
shirozina wrote
MF digital has not been success it was meant to be IMOI dont see price as the limiting factor. MF digital is not really that expensive at all, at least if you are a pro shooting with it every day. Buying a new car for your Pizza delivery service is more expensive..
Oh, and my Profoto and computer systems are all more expensive then my Leaf A75. I think the price is pretty correct. As they are selling all they can make.. why reduce the prices?
Would I love lower prices? Sure... But its about what is the right price for the market...
Oct 02, 2006 at 04:18 PM
p.4 #3Hassy's big mistake
sundstei wrote:
I dont see price as the limiting factor. MF digital is not really that expensive at all, at least if you are a pro shooting with it every day. Buying a new car for your Pizza delivery service is more expensive..
If there were a car which cost one quarter the price new and was 80% as good, most pizza deliveries would buy that instead.
The point is that MFDBs are facing strong price competition in a way in which cars are not. If a 30MP back came on the market tomorrow for under $10K then it would be a huge success. Price is certainly the main reason that thousands of pros have switched from MF film to DSLR.
I hope and suspect that MF is about to make a comeback.
I dont see price as the limiting factor. MF digital is not really that expensive at all, at least if you are a pro shooting with it every day. Buying a new car for your Pizza delivery service is more expensive..
If there were a car which cost one quarter the price new and was 80% as good, most pizza deliveries would buy that instead.
The point is that MFDBs are facing strong price competition in a way in which cars are not. If a 30MP back came on the market tomorrow for under $10K then it would be a huge success. Price is certainly the main reason that thousands of pros have switched from MF film to DSLR.
I hope and suspect that MF is about to make a comeback.
Oct 02, 2006 at 04:38 PM
p.4 #4Hassy's big mistake
foto-z wrote:
The point is that MFDBs are facing strong price competition in a way in which cars are not. If a 30MP back came on the market tomorrow for under $10K then it would be a huge success. Price is certainly the main reason that thousands of pros have switched from MF film to DSLR.
Who would want to make such a back? It would eat into the existing products from the large manufacturers. Mamiya tried to be the "rebel" in the market with the ZD...but failed. It would probably have to be someone new or someone desperate. Still its pretty controlled by the prices of the chips..
I also think we need to clarify the "pro" label. A newspaper photographer would probably not think the H1+A75 was a good combo when shooting a rally in rain.
I shoot in situations where I use a crew, and have (usually) full control of the parameters of a shoot. In such a situation the A75 is more than a few percent better than a 1DsmkII. Really screwing up the job would probably cost me as much as an A75 cost.
If you are shooting "fine art landscapes" you probably have other "values".
Deprecation on cars are bad...but digibacks are probably even worse
The point is that MFDBs are facing strong price competition in a way in which cars are not. If a 30MP back came on the market tomorrow for under $10K then it would be a huge success. Price is certainly the main reason that thousands of pros have switched from MF film to DSLR.
Who would want to make such a back? It would eat into the existing products from the large manufacturers. Mamiya tried to be the "rebel" in the market with the ZD...but failed. It would probably have to be someone new or someone desperate. Still its pretty controlled by the prices of the chips..
I also think we need to clarify the "pro" label. A newspaper photographer would probably not think the H1+A75 was a good combo when shooting a rally in rain.
I shoot in situations where I use a crew, and have (usually) full control of the parameters of a shoot. In such a situation the A75 is more than a few percent better than a 1DsmkII. Really screwing up the job would probably cost me as much as an A75 cost.
If you are shooting "fine art landscapes" you probably have other "values".
Deprecation on cars are bad...but digibacks are probably even worse
Oct 02, 2006 at 04:51 PM
p.4 #5Hassy's big mistake
sundstei wrote:
Mamiya tried to be the "rebel" in the market with the ZD...but failed.
That's true, but I don't think price is the problem with Mamiya. They were plagued by huge delays, then bad press, no marketing, then they sold the business off. On top of all that it's not a digital back, i.e. it's system-specific at a time when Mamiya's future is unclear.
All the above gave many potential buyers cold feet, so I don't think it's a meaningful comparison.
sundstei wrote:
Who would want to make such a back?
Sooner or later it will make financial sense for a company to try this, and once they do the other will be forced to follow. You can make more by selling 5000 backs at only $3K profit each, then by selling 100 backs at $15K profit each.
Mamiya tried to be the "rebel" in the market with the ZD...but failed.
That's true, but I don't think price is the problem with Mamiya. They were plagued by huge delays, then bad press, no marketing, then they sold the business off. On top of all that it's not a digital back, i.e. it's system-specific at a time when Mamiya's future is unclear.
All the above gave many potential buyers cold feet, so I don't think it's a meaningful comparison.
sundstei wrote:
Who would want to make such a back?
Sooner or later it will make financial sense for a company to try this, and once they do the other will be forced to follow. You can make more by selling 5000 backs at only $3K profit each, then by selling 100 backs at $15K profit each.
Oct 02, 2006 at 05:08 PM
p.4 #6Hassy's big mistake
foto-z wrote:
That's true, but I don't think price is the problem with Mamiya. They were plagued by huge delays, then bad press, no marketing, then they sold the business off. On top of all that it's not a digital back, i.e. it's system-specific at a time when Mamiya's future is unclear.
Actually, there was supposed to be a ZD digtal back (presumably for the Mamiya 645AFD) as well as the ZD DSLR.
sundstei wrote
Mamiya tried to be the "rebel" in the market with the ZD...but failed.Actually, there was supposed to be a ZD digtal back (presumably for the Mamiya 645AFD) as well as the ZD DSLR.
Oct 02, 2006 at 05:23 PM
p.4 #7Hassy's big mistake
foto-z wrote:
Sooner or later it will make financial sense for a company to try this, and once they do the other will be forced to follow. You can make more by selling 5000 backs at only $3K profit each, then by selling 100 backs at $15K profit each.
I believe the profit per back already is in the $3K range. What they need to be able to produce backs that are as inexpensive as you want them is a cheaper sensor. Canon can make the full size 1DsMkII and 5D sensor because it invested heavily in CMOS technoloy (cheap to produce) and has its own chip manufacturing facilities. To get a new back with such a low price tag you would have to get a chip that is equally cheap. None exist at the moment in "new production". 22megapixel chips are still better than 1DsmkII, so there might be some options with old sensor stock.
About Mamiya ZD; It proves how difficult it is to produce a digital back. The ZD had a lot of difficulties, as well as the ZD back not even being ready yet. The amount of money burned in r&d and manufacturing tools has to be recouped somewhere. And with as small sales margin as they already have.. its difficult to make a profit. You either have to sell a million like Canon, or keep production run as small as Phase and Leaf are already doing. If you are making 200 a month you can do it by hand. If you scale this to 2000 you need to build production machines etc. I.e. heavy upfront investment.
sundstei wrote
Who would want to make such a back?I believe the profit per back already is in the $3K range. What they need to be able to produce backs that are as inexpensive as you want them is a cheaper sensor. Canon can make the full size 1DsMkII and 5D sensor because it invested heavily in CMOS technoloy (cheap to produce) and has its own chip manufacturing facilities. To get a new back with such a low price tag you would have to get a chip that is equally cheap. None exist at the moment in "new production". 22megapixel chips are still better than 1DsmkII, so there might be some options with old sensor stock.
About Mamiya ZD; It proves how difficult it is to produce a digital back. The ZD had a lot of difficulties, as well as the ZD back not even being ready yet. The amount of money burned in r&d and manufacturing tools has to be recouped somewhere. And with as small sales margin as they already have.. its difficult to make a profit. You either have to sell a million like Canon, or keep production run as small as Phase and Leaf are already doing. If you are making 200 a month you can do it by hand. If you scale this to 2000 you need to build production machines etc. I.e. heavy upfront investment.
Oct 02, 2006 at 05:24 PM
p.4 #8Hassy's big mistake
Lotusm50 wrote:
That's true, but I don't think price is the problem with Mamiya. They were plagued by huge delays, then bad press, no marketing, then they sold the business off. On top of all that it's not a digital back, i.e. it's system-specific at a time when Mamiya's future is unclear.Actually, there was supposed to be a ZD digtal back (presumably for the Mamiya 645AFD) as well as the ZD DSLR.
The ZD back was shown at Kina.. under glass
foto-z wrote
sundstei wrote
Mamiya tried to be the "rebel" in the market with the ZD...but failed.The ZD back was shown at Kina.. under glass
Oct 02, 2006 at 05:28 PM
p.4 #9Hassy's big mistake
sundstei wrote:
I believe the profit per back already is in the $3K range. What they need to be able to produce backs that are as inexpensive as you want them is a cheaper sensor.
Actually I doubt that but it would be great if someone could chime in with a verified sensor price.
The fact that the back manufacturers can offer $10K rebates when you trade in an old back suggests that they are making more than $10K profit on a unit sale. Of course R&D has to be financed from these sales too but I stand by my earlier comment that they could make more profit by selling many more at a lower price. Perhaps limited sensor supplies are preventing this strategy?
I believe the profit per back already is in the $3K range. What they need to be able to produce backs that are as inexpensive as you want them is a cheaper sensor.
Actually I doubt that but it would be great if someone could chime in with a verified sensor price.
The fact that the back manufacturers can offer $10K rebates when you trade in an old back suggests that they are making more than $10K profit on a unit sale. Of course R&D has to be financed from these sales too but I stand by my earlier comment that they could make more profit by selling many more at a lower price. Perhaps limited sensor supplies are preventing this strategy?
Oct 02, 2006 at 06:01 PM
p.4 #10Hassy's big mistake
I should add that the ZD is retailing for not much over $10K which presumably is enough to cover various costs including R&D, manufacturing the back AND a 22MP chip. Clearly a 22MP chip is far below $10K in price. My guess is under $5K.
Oct 02, 2006 at 06:04 PM
p.4 #11Hassy's big mistake
foto-z wrote:
Actually I doubt that but it would be great if someone could chime in with a verified sensor price.
The fact that the back manufacturers can offer $10K rebates when you trade in an old back suggests that they are making more than $10K profit on a unit sale. Of course R&D has to be financed from these sales too but I stand by my earlier comment that they could make more profit by selling many more at a lower price. Perhaps limited sensor supplies are preventing this strategy?
Sensor prices would depend on what quantity you are purchasing. Mamiya did a huge deal on Dalsa chips when it was planning the ZD.
As far as a digiback, the sensor is the only "rare" raw product in its manufacturing. Everything else is pretty standard. The complexity of these chips make them difficult to produce in large quantities, hence the problems Leaf has been having with the "centerfold effect" on most all A75's.
I would guess sensor supply is what regulates the rate of the digiMF market without doubt.
I think the clue is that digiMF will never be HUGE no matter how much it grows and hence the restrictions on plant capacity from Dalsa and Kodak.
sundstei wrote
I believe the profit per back already is in the $3K range. What they need to be able to produce backs that are as inexpensive as you want them is a cheaper sensor.The fact that the back manufacturers can offer $10K rebates when you trade in an old back suggests that they are making more than $10K profit on a unit sale. Of course R&D has to be financed from these sales too but I stand by my earlier comment that they could make more profit by selling many more at a lower price. Perhaps limited sensor supplies are preventing this strategy?
Sensor prices would depend on what quantity you are purchasing. Mamiya did a huge deal on Dalsa chips when it was planning the ZD.
As far as a digiback, the sensor is the only "rare" raw product in its manufacturing. Everything else is pretty standard. The complexity of these chips make them difficult to produce in large quantities, hence the problems Leaf has been having with the "centerfold effect" on most all A75's.
I would guess sensor supply is what regulates the rate of the digiMF market without doubt.
I think the clue is that digiMF will never be HUGE no matter how much it grows and hence the restrictions on plant capacity from Dalsa and Kodak.
Oct 02, 2006 at 06:15 PM
p.4 #12Hassy's big mistake
foto-z wrote:
I should add that the ZD is retailing for not much over $10K which presumably is enough to cover various costs including R&D, manufacturing the back AND a 22MP chip. Clearly a 22MP chip is far below $10K in price. My guess is under $5K.
I wont speculate in the exact price of an old 22megapixel chip, but its probably due to the quantity of the initial sale from Dalsa to Mamiya.
Also rumors have it that the ZD is sold at loss or really close to break even just to place them in the market. Mamiya had to unhand the camera department to 3rd party investors as it was no longer able to let more money sink into the company. That would be a good clue that things are not so rosy as far as initial cost of setting up the ZD production.
I should add that the ZD is retailing for not much over $10K which presumably is enough to cover various costs including R&D, manufacturing the back AND a 22MP chip. Clearly a 22MP chip is far below $10K in price. My guess is under $5K.
I wont speculate in the exact price of an old 22megapixel chip, but its probably due to the quantity of the initial sale from Dalsa to Mamiya.
Also rumors have it that the ZD is sold at loss or really close to break even just to place them in the market. Mamiya had to unhand the camera department to 3rd party investors as it was no longer able to let more money sink into the company. That would be a good clue that things are not so rosy as far as initial cost of setting up the ZD production.
Oct 02, 2006 at 06:21 PM
p.4 #13Hassy's big mistake
Guy Mancuso wrote:
Maybe that sounds a little desperate but youunderstand the point. This is one of the very reasons why i have been sitting on making a purchase. Just not a very stable place, maybe it never will be
Niche products like the DMR, digiMF, view cams etc are all always in a flux.
Its very unlikely that Canon would suddenly change their lenses so none of the old cameras could use them (ok.. so it happened with FD to EF... but that was pretty special).
It would not surprise me if something like Leica closing down the R-line happend (just an example....dont panic!!!). There are simply fewer people to scream.. and more marginal markets. Look at the whole Contax line, Bonica, Rollei 6000x series etc.
I have deep investment in Hassey H1 equipment.. and feel really cheated by the news about the H3D. I cant change to H3 as I use a Leaf back. Only option is a mount change on the Leaf back to go to some other camera, but other than Mamiya 645 no real options exists. I need to use my equipment NOW.. not in 2 months. So supplying with some used H1 stuff would probably be the only strategy from now on. Not such a good option as I would rather buy new because of financing and tax situation for my company.
Maybe that sounds a little desperate but youunderstand the point. This is one of the very reasons why i have been sitting on making a purchase. Just not a very stable place, maybe it never will be
Niche products like the DMR, digiMF, view cams etc are all always in a flux.
Its very unlikely that Canon would suddenly change their lenses so none of the old cameras could use them (ok.. so it happened with FD to EF... but that was pretty special).
It would not surprise me if something like Leica closing down the R-line happend (just an example....dont panic!!!). There are simply fewer people to scream.. and more marginal markets. Look at the whole Contax line, Bonica, Rollei 6000x series etc.
I have deep investment in Hassey H1 equipment.. and feel really cheated by the news about the H3D. I cant change to H3 as I use a Leaf back. Only option is a mount change on the Leaf back to go to some other camera, but other than Mamiya 645 no real options exists. I need to use my equipment NOW.. not in 2 months. So supplying with some used H1 stuff would probably be the only strategy from now on. Not such a good option as I would rather buy new because of financing and tax situation for my company.
Oct 02, 2006 at 06:32 PM
p.4 #14Hassy's big mistake
JJ,
Bibble Added C/A corrections as well as Vignette corrections in version 4.8, the Vignette can also be used to do creative effects. The more recent 4.9 version added a spot heal/clone facility as well as sensor defect correction (Hotpix)
Eric
www.bibblelabs.com
Bibble Added C/A corrections as well as Vignette corrections in version 4.8, the Vignette can also be used to do creative effects. The more recent 4.9 version added a spot heal/clone facility as well as sensor defect correction (Hotpix)
Eric
www.bibblelabs.com
Oct 02, 2006 at 08:21 PM
p.4 #15Hassy's big mistake
I am in a similar place.. Hassy H2 and leaf back... I also paid 2300 for a hassy h2 sliding back for my rollei x act 2. SO if i change my Leaf attachment, I am still stuck with my sliding back and have to buy another. BTW i paid extra for the H2 attachment on the sliding back. They were 400 or 500 dollars more
sundstei wrote:
Guy Mancuso wrote
Maybe that sounds a little desperate but youunderstand the point. This is one of the very reasons why i have been sitting on making a purchase. Just not a very stable place, maybe it never will beIts very unlikely that Canon would suddenly change their lenses so none of the old cameras could use them (ok.. so it happened with FD to EF... but that was pretty special).
It would not surprise me if something like Leica closing down the R-line happend (just an example....dont panic!!!). There are simply fewer people to scream.. and more marginal markets. Look at the whole Contax line, Bonica, Rollei 6000x series etc.
I have deep investment in Hassey H1 equipment.. and feel really cheated by the...Show more →
Oct 02, 2006 at 08:41 PM
p.4 #17Hassy's big mistake
Price cuts with volume production are common with consumer products but MF backs are specialist precision tools and are just not subject to the same rules - they will remain very expensive. Have the prices of Porsche's or Ferraris's dropped significatly over the years because technology to make them has become better and cheaper - hell even Leica is not likely to start slashing prices.
Oct 03, 2006 at 02:06 AM
p.4 #18Hassy's big mistake
mark1958 wrote:
I am in a similar place.. Hassy H2 and leaf back... I also paid 2300 for a hassy h2 sliding back for my rollei x act 2. SO if i change my Leaf attachment, I am still stuck with my sliding back and have to buy another. BTW i paid extra for the H2 attachment on the sliding back. They were 400 or 500 dollars more
Same here.. I shoot people for work.. but love shooting different types of landscapes for fun. So I bought the Cambo wide + 35mm with H1 attachment. So it would also have to be changed.
And I have the EcoDigital H1 adapter plate for the Mamiya RZ. It cost 1500USD i think
All would be useless if I changed main camera. Oh.. and I REALLY love my H1....
I am in a similar place.. Hassy H2 and leaf back... I also paid 2300 for a hassy h2 sliding back for my rollei x act 2. SO if i change my Leaf attachment, I am still stuck with my sliding back and have to buy another. BTW i paid extra for the H2 attachment on the sliding back. They were 400 or 500 dollars more
Same here.. I shoot people for work.. but love shooting different types of landscapes for fun. So I bought the Cambo wide + 35mm with H1 attachment. So it would also have to be changed.
And I have the EcoDigital H1 adapter plate for the Mamiya RZ. It cost 1500USD i think
All would be useless if I changed main camera. Oh.. and I REALLY love my H1....Oct 03, 2006 at 02:08 AM
p.4 #19Hassy's big mistake
I have written a letter to three hassy reps about my displeasure with their decisions.
sundstei wrote:
mark1958 wrote
I am in a similar place.. Hassy H2 and leaf back... I also paid 2300 for a hassy h2 sliding back for my rollei x act 2. SO if i change my Leaf attachment, I am still stuck with my sliding back and have to buy another. BTW i paid extra for the H2 attachment on the sliding back. They were 400 or 500 dollars moreAnd I have the EcoDigital H1 adapter plate for the Mamiya RZ. It cost 1500USD i think
All would be useless if I changed main camera. Oh.. and I REALLY love my H1....Oct 04, 2006 at 03:23 PM
p.4 #20Hassy's big mistake
they will certainly impress them!
maybe the question would be: do you really need a 28mm lens, if not everything is great, no?
maybe the question would be: do you really need a 28mm lens, if not everything is great, no?
Oct 04, 2006 at 03:44 PM