unchecked wrote:
Oh it'll drop by Christmas. The Z8 dropped by $300 for Christmas last year. Give the Z6iii 3 to 6 months and street prices will go down gradually and then stabilize at maybe $300~$500 off MSRP by the year. Cameras don't have yearly refresh cycles like phones and don't get bought in volumes like phones. The discounts will kick in soon after the initial rush is over and production catches up and start filling up storage space.
It's not that the Z7iii doesn't have it's place. You have the pockets of users who want more than 24MP but don't want to spend $3.5k on a Z8 or $4k+ on a Z8ii when it gets released. There's your market. When Nikon says they're evaluating the market, they could be just trying to ascertain that it's not a matter of "correlation doesn't mean causation". And again, the Z7 and Z7ii sales gave them cold feet. It will take a while for those feet to get warm again....Show more →
We'll see. It'll go on sale, but i doubt a permanent price drop. Not even still, a 300 to 500 price drop isn't enough even they are going to have to price a Z7III at $2800-$3000. A Z8 at $3500 isn't enough of a price difference. Why would anyone buya Z7III over a Z8 at that point?
I just highly doubt there's a place for aZ7III. The other tell take sign it the fact that a Z6 and Z7 always launched together and there is no Z7III anywhere to be found. That plus the Nikon Rep saying that Nikon is evaluating the market means it's likely not even in development
It's all speculation. I'm just reading the tea leaves and they are saying that a Z7III isn't very likely
Refurb Z6iii units will be plentiful by end of year (people who bought from and returned to Nikon to test the camera) and will likely sell for at least 15% off, judging by the Z8 and Z9 sales.
RoamingScott wrote:
Refurb Z6iii units will be plentiful by end of year (people who bought from and returned to Nikon to test the camera) and will likely sell for at least 15% off, judging by the Z8 and Z9 sales.
If Nikon is to be believed and there will be a pretty good delay in filing orders, it may be sometime in 2025 before there are very many returns for refurbished sales. Though personally i don't think there's going to be a crazy high demand like there was for the Z9 and even to a much lesser degree of the Z8. i also think that many many more people will want to buy new and not refurbished in general and for warranty considerations
Eric214 wrote:
Oh it'll drop by Christmas. The Z8 dropped by $300 for Christmas last year. Give the Z6iii 3 to 6 months and street prices will go down gradually and then stabilize at maybe $300~$500 off MSRP by the year.
I am not saying it hasn't or couldn't happen, but they won't put the Z6III on sale if availability is low or they haven't fulfilled preorders until October or later. But I said I don't think there will be that heavy of demand. I said as much with the Z8 and the preorders were fulfilled in 3 months which I also said would be the timing.
If the Z6III doesn't have strong overall sales, then obviously they will put it on sale. That I think would also turn Nikon off to a Z7III. They'd have to neuter it to much compared to the Z8 then what would be the point in the 2 bodies only $500 apart?
Eric214 wrote:
I am not saying it hasn't or couldn't happen, but they won't put the Z6III on sale if availability is low or they haven't fulfilled preorders until October or later. But I said I don't think there will be that heavy of demand. I said as much with the Z8 and the preorders were fulfilled in 3 months which I also said would be the timing.
So far the mumbling out of Nikon HQ is that Z6iii pre-orders far outstrip their projections h/t NR. Of course this says nothing about their ability to catch up within a few months, and does not jive with the fact that a few days post introduction B&H and Adorama are still taking pre-orders and showing an estimated ship date of 6/25. On the other hand Amazon is not taking pre-orders, I wonder if there is some fallout with Nikon.
GroovyGeek wrote:
So far the mumbling out of Nikon HQ is that Z6iii pre-orders far outstrip their projections h/t NR. Of course this says nothing about their ability to catch up within a few months, and does not jive with the fact that a few days post introduction B&H and Adorama are still taking pre-orders and showing an estimated ship date of 6/25. On the other hand Amazon is not taking pre-orders, I wonder if there is some fallout with Nikon.
I don't take much in what Nikon says directly after an announcement. A lot of people put pre-orders in in four or five different locations trying to hedge their bet whereas a lot of those will get canceled which is why they catch up a lot of times within 2 to 3 months just like the Z8 did. The only real barometer of this is at what point can you either order off of the Nikon site and get it within a week or do you see them sitting on retail store shelves where you can just walk in and buy one.
I don’t see why the Z6III would not sell very well.
It’s best in class, price is competitive vs other brand’s offers.
The only thing is that the Z8 has become a truly insane bargain vs anything else. If that means that some photographers initially considering a Z6III end up buying a Z8 it’s even better for Nikon.
I see the following categories interested in the Z6III.
- current Z6/Z6II users
- the millions of D600/D610/D750/D780 users not having moved to mirrorless yet
- Canon 6D, 6DII, 5Dx users not having migrated to mirrorless yet not convinced by the RF lenses line up (probably including many birders)
- Z8/Z9 users looking for a back up offering similar performance in a smaller package with a bit better high ISO image quality and video files that can be edited with same workflow
- Sony users with a Nikon background tired of some issues such as average colors and UI who didn’t want to look at the Z6II yet because of it’s AF performance
We would need to get upwards of 200mp for refraction to start to set in at f4. This make me think that realistically we can 2-4x resolution of FF cameras before this really becomes a problem.
Lens design also keeps improving, for example most mirrorless lenses already have higher IQ at faster apertures, than the previous DSLR lenses. There already are some lenses that are pretty much hitting there peak IQ around f4 - f5.6. This makes me think that we will be able to design lenses that can take advantage of higher resolution sensors, even if we have to use faster apertures. Sure an f2.8 zoom will be bigger than an f5.6 zoom to carry around but so is MF gear over FF gear. The only thing we can't really accommodate for optically is the shallower DOF, but software improvements over time will probably make DOF stacking more practical....Show more →
DWOfPaul wrote:
Also if Nikon did put out a camera in the 65MP + range they could, at least for a while, claim they have the highest resolution FF camera. Which could be a fairly powerful marketing tool. While we know there is more to sensors then just resolution, at the end of the day many people buy on specs alone.
Yes, but Nikon buys sensors from Sony semiconductors. Sony has the A7r line for high res cameras. If they have a new sensor ready for use Im not sure they would let Nikon use it first.
This isn't how Nikon's partnership with Sony works.
E.g. it is widely known that Sony manufactures, e.g., the 20 MP sensors in the D500 and D5/D6, the 45 MP sensors in the D850, Z7/Z7II and the Z8/9 and none of these sensors are used in cameras other than Nikon's. Nikon also was the first to use the 36 MP sensor until later it was used by other brands at well.
Also the partially stacked 24 MP sensor for the Z6 III is new and has not been used in other cameras. While the manufacturer is unknown, it is likely to be Sony.
It is possible that Nikon could use the 61 MP sensor in the A7RV but they like to do their own thing, something a bit different from its competitors.
I think it makes sense for Nikon to use the same basic sensor design and evolve it for a longer time (to make the costs per camera lower), rather than make small changes in resolution which are not particularly visible in the images. A doubling of pixel count is probably visible and so Nikon could start using a 90-100 MP sensor when it has been developed, assuming it brings an overall improvement in image quality. However, it seems Nikon is more focused on improving speed while maintaining image quality for the time being, and becoming more competitive in video.
ingekj wrote:
Yes, but Nikon buys sensors from Sony semiconductors. Sony has the A7r line for high res cameras. If they have a new sensor ready for use Im not sure they would let Nikon use it first.
ilkka_nissila wrote:
A doubling of pixel count is probably visible and so Nikon could start using a 90-100 MP sensor when it has been developed, assuming it brings an overall improvement in image quality. However, it seems Nikon is more focused on improving speed while maintaining image quality for the time being, and becoming more competitive in video.
This does seem to be the tack that Nikon is taking -- and it is exactly why I haven't bought a new Nikon FF camera.
Maintaining IQ instead of improving IQ is not a forward looking objective. Improving IQ should be Nikon's goal if it wants to be a leader rather than a follower.
Being competitive in video is not necessary for a stills camera.
I think there's room in the marketplace for a stills camera that is focused on high IQ that doesn't require all of the automation bells and whistles, and don't require video. This type of camera could be marketed at the same price point as another camera that offers lower resolution with all of the automation bells and whistles. The way that I see it there's a market niche for a high-res stills camera at the Z6iii price point. The Z7iii could do that if Nikon were to dispense with everything that's not necessary in making a high resolution stills camera.
I need a noise free high resolution sensor for a still image camera. I don't need automation. I am not a bird paparazzi or a fast-action sports shooter, so I am not swayed by advancements in AF and frame rates. I don't care about video. What I do care about is high IQ at high resolution. When Nikon makes a camera that markedly improves on their high resolution cameras I'll buy it, but until that happens I'm left unimpressed by the path Nikon is taking.
The problem is that many camera manufacturers are trying to create cameras that are universal all-purpose cameras that are everything for everyone. Packing every feature into every camera raises the average unit cost, it doesn't lower it. I would be happy if Nikon took away all of the ancillary add-ons and made a basic-featured high-res stills camera at a lower price. Conceptually, there's no reason that a minimalist high-res camera couldn't co-exist at the Z6ii price point.
coralnut wrote:
The problem is that many camera manufacturers are trying to create cameras that are universal all-purpose cameras that are everything for everyone. Packing every feature into every camera raises the average unit cost, it doesn't lower it. I would be happy if Nikon took away all of the ancillary add-ons and made a basic-featured high-res stills camera at a lower price. Conceptually, there's no reason that a minimalist high-res camera couldn't co-exist at the Z6ii price point.
I think I want the same camera you want, and that’s also why I’m still shooting the original Z7.
But, to play Devil’s advocate, the potential flaw in the above reasoning is volume. Volume drives costs lower than almost anything else and loss of volume is what has plagued the ILC market. A minimalist high-res camera can only exist at the Z6ii price point if said camera has a commensurate volume to a Z6ii. As much as that is the camera that I want, I seriously doubt that very many others do. It is a niche, and low volume niches produce very expensive cameras for what they can do (just go talk to the m43 folks).
So the reason they are creating “universal all-purpose cameras” is likely because if they instead made multiple special purpose cameras the result would be higher cost cameras with less features, which really isn’t a win for anyone.
Fundamentally this is still a contracting ILC market and one that has no compact market to support it like in the past. So the reasoning about what models “make sense” is potentially very different than in the past.
But again, personally I hope for a Z7III centered on IQ rather than speed.
According to CIPA, the ILC market (in terms of camera sales volume) grew from 2022 to 2023 and is again greater for the first months or 2024 than 2023.
It's more of a wild rumor, but since any thread about a fictitious Z7 III at this time can only be based on pure speculation due to a lack of information, I'll put it here anyway.
Nikon Z7 III with 88MP BSI CMOS sensor [WILD RUMOR]
ilkka_nissila wrote:
According to CIPA, the ILC market (in terms of camera sales volume) grew from 2022 to 2023 and is again greater for the first months or 2024 than 2023.
Indeed, we may have found a floor which is better news than continued contraction! But that floor is still vastly different than 10 years ago.
2013 was 16.8M ILCs produced
2023 was 6.2M ILCs produced
And the current floor is pretty flat. 2023 was just 3.5% more ILC than 2022. Apparent “boost” in 2022 from the trough of around 5.3M in 2020 and 2021 is likely explained by recovery of the supply chain and vacation travel. So we are unlikely to see much growth and the manufacturers are dealing with a “new normal” of one third as many ILC units than a decade ago. And of course no compacts at all which in 2013 brought in as much revenue as ILC.
Nikon has had a stated strategy to deal with the new normal and, after much doomsaying by internet eyeball grabbers, seems to have executed it well. I can understand why some folks predict that Nikon might abandon the Z7 line in the process of rationalizing their product line. Personally though I really hope the line continues and I think claiming the Z8 replaces it is ridiculous based on size alone.
ingekj wrote:
Yes, but Nikon buys sensors from Sony semiconductors. Sony has the A7r line for high res cameras. If they have a new sensor ready for use Im not sure they would let Nikon use it first.
No, but Nikon when they get Sony's sensor they improve it like they did with the Z9's sensor. I remember shortly after the Z9's release that is was discovered it was a 52mp sensor but binned to 45mp so it could be well be the A1's sensor but Nikon is a faster readout.
Vento wrote:
It's more of a wild rumor, but since any thread about a fictitious Z7 III at this time can only be based on pure speculation due to a lack of information, I'll put it here anyway.
Nikon Z7 III with 88MP BSI CMOS sensor [WILD RUMOR]
It's plausible, that would be fairly close to scaling up the Fuji 40mp sensor to full frame. That would also almost double the resolution of the Z8 which would help stop the cameras from competing against each other. Would probably also cause quite a bit of marketing buzz if Nikon hit 80mp before Sony and Canon.
We probably have the processing capability at this point to make a camera that can be 88mp and do around 10fps. My main question is what would that do to camera cost. If it's going to be a 4k+ camera people will probably expect a Z8 style body, which means it's not fitting the size or cost of the Z7 in Nikons line up.
Realistically I think we are more likely to see Nikon and Canon hit 60-75mp first. Even for Sony I think they would be likely to hit 70mp before 80mp. The general feeling I get is most A7rV users are not asking for more resolution but asking for faster readout times, which seam to get slower the more mp a camera has.
Since we are totally speculating what future cameras might look like at this point I can also see future 80mp+ cameras having something like a 1/4 resolution mode when they combined 4 pixels into one and create a high quality 20mp+ image, kind of like the iPhone pros do with there 48mp sensor that by default generates a 12mp image.
kwalsh wrote:
I think I want the same camera you want, and that’s also why I’m still shooting the original Z7.
But, to play Devil’s advocate, the potential flaw in the above reasoning is volume. Volume drives costs lower than almost anything else and loss of volume is what has plagued the ILC market. A minimalist high-res camera can only exist at the Z6ii price point if said camera has a commensurate volume to a Z6ii. As much as that is the camera that I want, I seriously doubt that very many others do. It is a niche, and low volume niches produce very expensive cameras for what they can do (just go talk to the m43 folks).
So the reason they are creating “universal all-purpose cameras” is likely because if they instead made multiple special purpose cameras the result would be higher cost cameras with less features, which really isn’t a win for anyone.
Fundamentally this is still a contracting ILC market and one that has no compact market to support it like in the past. So the reasoning about what models “make sense” is potentially very different than in the past.
But again, personally I hope for a Z7III centered on IQ rather than speed....Show more →
The volume question is an interesting one to contemplate as I think it largely comes down to sensor and processor volume. Given EXPEED is spread across multiple models, I’d think Nikon would want to update their entire lineup to EXPEED 7 sooner rather than later.
The sensor, being the most expensive component is where the volume question really comes in IMO. And a reason why I think Nikon had to make a Z8 for them to be able to aggressively price both the Z8 and Z9.
Nikon also has a history of being quite efficient in utilisation with their bespoke sensors, with their 45MP sensor spanning from D850 to Z7 II as well as, I believe, the basis for their stacked implementation in the Z8/9. Their 20MP DX has also proliferated over pretty much every DX model since the D500 IIRC and I think the 20/45MP DX/FX sensors likely also shared development costs.
Which brings us to our current point and seeing a new bespoke sensor from Nikon. So I believe we will see another partial stacked 24MP/EXPEED 7 combo in a different form factor, perhaps a A7c or S9 type camera.
For a high MP sensor, my guess is it’s another FX/DX bespoke combo in non or partial or full stack
Eg.
40MP non stacked/partial stack DX (Z50 III/Z70)
90MP partial stack FX/full stack (Z7 III/Z9 II)
That may be a way Nikon can achieve volume but still cater to various niches.
