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Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

jhapeman
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p.2 #1 · p.2 #1 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

tsdevine wrote:
I guess we'll see whether the a1 follows the longer (seemingly, excluding the a9 II) a9 update schedule, or the 3'ish year schedule of most of a7 cameras. The a1 was released in January 2021.

Exactly, three years is pretty long these days and let's not forget that Canon will likely have their R1 available for their Olympics camera. An updated A1 would likely steal all of Canon's thunder. A new A9III seems like it would be a "meh" kind of thing. We shall see.

Oct 30, 2023 at 09:29 AM

j4nu
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p.2 #2 · p.2 #2 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

My bet is on A9III because Sony wants you to buy more cameras, not consolidate. So I think a lower res, but ultra fast (60+ fps) is what we're going to see (with all the new goodies: AI, screen, controls/dials, etc.).
Maybe a a paid major firmware update for A1...

Oct 30, 2023 at 10:18 AM

RoamingScott
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p.2 #3 · p.2 #3 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

A wire service doesn't want a 50mp file, nor do they want to overpay for a 50mp camera even if that camera can output at smaller resolutions.

Oct 30, 2023 at 10:21 AM

jhapeman
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p.2 #4 · p.2 #4 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

RoamingScott wrote:
A wire service doesn't want a 50mp file, nor do they want to overpay for a 50mp camera even if that camera can output at smaller resolutions.

Right but you can get 21 or 12mp files by using the new medium and small raw file sizes. And you're assuming that an A9III would be cheaper; the only reason the A9II is cheaper is its older technology. If they have to develop a totally new sensor and amortize that over the cost of a camera that's not a small nut to crack.

Oct 30, 2023 at 10:30 AM

jhapeman
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p.2 #5 · p.2 #5 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

j4nu wrote:
My bet is on A9III because Sony wants you to buy more cameras, not consolidate. So I think a lower res, but ultra fast (60+ fps) is what we're going to see (with all the new goodies: AI, screen, controls/dials, etc.).
Maybe a a paid major firmware update for A1...

If they do release an A9III it will have to have some compelling reason it's better than an A1 for anyone to look at it. 60fps or more would be one thing that would set it apart.

There's an assumption by some it would be cheaper, in line with the A9II prices, but that price was set ages ago when the costs of the sensor development had already been amortized. If they end up making a new sensor like some are saying it will be very difficult to keep the costs down as they have to recoup those sensor development costs.

Maybe it will just be the same A9 sensor but updated with the latest tweaks? That would be way less expensive, and could allow for super fast fps.

We'll know in a week I guess.

Oct 30, 2023 at 10:34 AM

RoamingScott
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p.2 #6 · p.2 #6 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

jhapeman wrote:
Right but you can get 21 or 12mp files by using the new medium and small raw file sizes.

I addressed that in my post. A wire service won't buy a 50mp camera to shoot it at 20mp because that means they are overpaying.

They also don't pay MSRP when they sign a big deal with Sony for a fleet of hardware, so whatever MSRP we'd pay is meaningless. I'm also not convinced many services would buy into the A9iii right off the bat, but if Sony releases in time for the 2024 games (99% chance that will happen) their hardware services tent will be full of them.

It's interesting how this thread (along with the THIRTY FIVE PAGE A1 fw rumor thread from almost a year ago) reveals the hunger for an A1ii based mostly on the non-existent firmware update policy from Sony.

Oct 30, 2023 at 10:56 AM

jhapeman
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p.2 #7 · p.2 #7 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

RoamingScott wrote:
I addressed that in my post. A wire service won't buy a 50mp camera to shoot it at 20mp because that means they are overpaying.

They also don't pay MSRP when they sign a big deal with Sony for a fleet of hardware, so whatever MSRP we'd pay is meaningless.

And my point is that is 100% based on the assumption that a new A9III will be significantly less expensive than an A1.

Apart from the sensor pretty much 100% of the BOM to build an A1 and an A9II are identical. The old sensor in the A9 has been out since 2017 and was no doubt in development since several years before that. Given that a huge portion of the cost of a sensor is the size of the chip, not necessarily the pixel count, a brand new sensor is going to bring with it a whole new set of development costs to be amortized.

If they bring out a new A9III they will need more than just a lower price and lower megapixel count to make it interesting enough to carve out a niche big enough to recoup any development costs on a new sensor.

Looking back on the A9/A1 series you have the A9 in 2017, the A9II in 2019, the A1 in 2021...so that's every two years there's an update on the "flagship" camera. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if what we see is the A1 II.

I think you think that wire services a) will care that much about a minor price difference (for them) or b) they wouldn't pay the same price anyway once it's negotiated on the basis of a large purchase.

Oct 30, 2023 at 11:17 AM

Dave Sanders
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p.2 #8 · p.2 #8 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

jhapeman wrote:
If they do release an A9III it will have to have some compelling reason it's better than an A1 for anyone to look at it. 60fps or more would be one thing that would set it apart.

There's an assumption by some it would be cheaper, in line with the A9II prices, but that price was set ages ago when the costs of the sensor development had already been amortized. If they end up making a new sensor like some are saying it will be very difficult to keep the costs down as they have to recoup those sensor development...Show more →

I'm guessing Sony will go for price differentiation here, and give folks 2000-2500 reasons to chose an A9III over an A1. I could picture the A9 coming in close to the RV, maybe a bit more. It would make sense in the 'do you want resolution or speed?' context, and if you answer 'both!' then they have the A1 sitting up on a pedestal for a cool $6500...

Oct 30, 2023 at 11:22 AM

chez
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p.2 #9 · p.2 #9 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

Dave Sanders wrote:
I'm guessing Sony will go for price differentiation here, and give folks 2000-2500 reasons to chose an A9III over an A1. I could picture the A9 coming in close to the RV, maybe a bit more. It would make sense in the 'do you want resolution or speed?' context, and if you answer 'both!' then they have the A1 sitting up on a pedestal for a cool $6500...

Agreed. This is Sony’s current positioning with their top gear cameras…why would they change that? They currently have the lower cost high resolution camera ( A7r5 ) the lower cost speed demon ( a92 ) and the high cost high resolution speed demon ( a1 ).

Oct 30, 2023 at 11:29 AM

RoamingScott
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p.2 #10 · p.2 #10 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

This discussion, along with prices, makes you really appreciate what Nikon was able to do with the Z8. No reason to have to pick speed or resolution and still comes in cheaper than the A9ii.

And yes, Sony is ALL ABOUT market segmentation. They withhold features from every camera they make to ensure you have to upgrade to a more expensive model to get it, even if the hardware supports it, or pay $6000 for a 2 year old camera. Very old school Canon.

Oct 30, 2023 at 11:30 AM

Dave Sanders
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p.2 #11 · p.2 #11 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

RoamingScott wrote:
This discussion, along with prices, makes you really appreciate what Nikon was able to do with the Z8. No reason to have to pick speed or resolution and still comes in cheaper than the A9ii.

And yes, Sony is ALL ABOUT market segmentation. They withhold features from every camera they make to ensure you have to upgrade to a more expensive model to get it, even if the hardware supports it, or pay $6000 for a 2 year old camera. Very old school Canon.

Have you had a chance to get the Z8 in your hands yet? I know lots of folks think it's too big, but it's the one Nikon I'd love to check out. Ok, that's a total lie, I'd love to check out the Z9 too

Oct 30, 2023 at 11:46 AM

RoamingScott
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p.2 #12 · p.2 #12 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

Dave Sanders wrote:
Have you had a chance to get the Z8 in your hands yet? I know lots of folks think it's too big, but it's the one Nikon I'd love to check out. Ok, that's a total lie, I'd love to check out the Z9 too

Had the Z9 for a year, traded it for a Z8 at Z8 launch, and just traded the Z8 back for a Z9

In the end, it feels amazing in hand ergo wise, but it's still quite a bit larger than something like the A1. Packing it was still more cumbersome than it was easy. I figured if I was going to be annoyed every time I packed my gear, I should have the best camera instead of the 2nd best camera

I also thought the Z8 build quality felt suspect and left much to be desired. The Z9 is better in every way in that aspect, feels like a military grade piece of equipment compared.

I miss the size of Sony cameras...packing them into a 10L bag inside a backpack and hiking with them is a dream.

Edited on Oct 30, 2023 at 11:57 AM · View previous versions

Oct 30, 2023 at 11:56 AM

saaketham
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p.2 #13 · p.2 #13 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

Having tried the z8 for several weeks, trips and impromptu shoots ...

- I have many shots where the eye is not in focus and clearly back-focused shots
- I really wanted to love it, because it seems so DSLR-like in looks and ergonomics
- In the end, I traded it for an a7R5 with someone looking to go the other way
- a7R5's subject recognition and Eye AF are (to me) much superior for portraits, pets
- A1 still rocks for BIF, stage events, and fast action without any fuss

I still have a Nikon z6ii as I do love Nikon's cleaner files and white balance
I just use Sony lenses on it with an adapter

My z9 (I had it for a few weeks) files are somehow much better than the z8 files, to my eyes.

Oct 30, 2023 at 11:57 AM

RoamingScott
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p.2 #14 · p.2 #14 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

Not trying to instigate a Nikon derail, but the Z8 and Z9 output should be identical in terms of color and IQ. If not, there is something amiss between settings/operator.

That said, the 4.1 firmware update has made the Z9 the better performing unit in terms of AF. Good news is it's features are coming to the Z8 in Q1 2024.

Oct 30, 2023 at 12:01 PM

jhapeman
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p.2 #15 · p.2 #15 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

They've never released a newer model at a lower price. Given that that A9II is at $4,499 right now, I would expect a new one to be more like $4999. Feature-wise though it's going to be tough to separate the two. About the only thing you could do is give it something like 60fps; that would be pretty distinctive vs. the A1. Not sure if that's what everyone would want though. Personally I find myself almost never going over 20fps on the A1 as it's a terrific slog to sort through so many images.

Maybe that's all that they would feel they need, shave $1500 or $2000 off the price of an A1 and give it a higher fps. It would obviously get the new AI focus chip, too. If they delay the new A1 for another 6 months or so then that might be enough to get a bunch of buyers until the A1 is updated.

Maybe we'll see both? A1 II with the AI focus and new firmware to go with it, A9III for that new niche?

Oct 30, 2023 at 12:03 PM

RoamingScott
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p.2 #16 · p.2 #16 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

Both the A9 and A9ii launched at $4500 US. The Z8 ~simply existing~ this time around will prevent them from launching the A9iii for more than $4500 unless it has some killer new feature, which...highly doubtful. Sony will save that for the A1ii.

The market will not bear more than $6500 for the A1ii based on the ramped up competition from the other 2 sides now. The A1 is terribly overpriced there now, not that anyone is actually paying that.

The market analysis seems very straightforward to me here

Oct 30, 2023 at 12:05 PM

jhapeman
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p.2 #17 · p.2 #17 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

RoamingScott wrote:
Both the A9 and A9ii launched at $4500 US. The Z8 ~simply existing~ this time around will prevent them from launching the A9iii for more than $4500 unless it has some killer new feature, which...highly doubtful. Sony will save that for the A1ii.

The market will not bear more than $6500 for the A1ii based on the ramped up competition from the other 2 sides now. The A1 is terribly overpriced there now, not that anyone is actually paying that.

The market analysis seems very straightforward to me here

They seem to have sold bucketloads at $6500 and they have *never* priced their cameras based on what competitors are charging. Nikon *has* to charge less as they are struggling with market share loss. Sony has no such problem.

Oct 30, 2023 at 12:09 PM

RoamingScott
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p.2 #18 · p.2 #18 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

jhapeman wrote:
They seem to have sold bucketloads at $6500 and they have *never* priced their cameras based on what competitors are charging. Nikon *has* to charge less as they are struggling with market share loss. Sony has no such problem.

You do realize that between EDU and dealer specials, few are ACTUALLY paying $6500, though...right? Either way, when you google a camera and see the MSRP...that number has to make some sort of sense in the market.

Oct 30, 2023 at 12:10 PM

jhapeman
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p.2 #19 · p.2 #19 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

RoamingScott wrote:
You do realize that between EDU and dealer specials, few are ACTUALLY paying $6500, though...right? Either way, when you google a camera and see the MSRP...that number has to make some sort of sense in the market.

You really think everyone is buying them with EDU and dealer special discounts? Absolutely not. Look at what B&H and Adorama and the big places are selling them for. That's the market price. Some small fraction get those discounts, yes, but that is absolutely the exception and not the norm.

Oct 30, 2023 at 12:18 PM

RoamingScott
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p.2 #20 · p.2 #20 · Will the Sony A1 Value Increase with New Firmware?

jhapeman wrote:
You really think everyone is buying them with EDU and dealer special discounts? Absolutely not. Look at what B&H and Adorama and the big places are selling them for. That's the market price. Some small fraction get those discounts, yes, but that is absolutely the exception and not the norm.

You clearly want the A1ii so badly that it's clouding your critical thinking but that's ok. Hopefully for your sake Sony abandons their well defined business model for this one camera that you want so very badly

Oct 30, 2023 at 12:20 PM

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