Steve Spencer wrote:
The Canon lenses both have a max aperture of f/11, this is f/6.3 so a huge 1 and 2/3rds stops of light faster aperture.
Actually, I was replying to a person who had forgotten that Canon also produced PF (DO) lenses other than the 400 f4 DO and the forgettable 70-300 DO. I guess the other part is that these lenses are considerably less expensive than the 500PF and the soon to arrive 800PF. I met someone who had the 800 and he loved his. Actually, if Nikon produced an 800 f11 PF, I would be a lot more likely to purchase it than the 800 f6.3.
jwolfe wrote:
No one said anything about cheap. Nothing going forward is going to be cheap due to low sales volumes.
Personally I’m shooting with a D7500 and it does pretty much everything I need. It’s mostly due to weight. But I will probably add a D500 soon. I don’t need all those wizbang features. I just need solid AF.
I actually said something about cheap and I think it is important. We know that Z6 series cameras are going to less than $2,000 and Z5 series cameras are going to be less than $1,200, so a $2,500 or even higher Z90 (or whatever a D500 type mirrorless would be called) might have a very small market. A lot of people might well prefer the higher MP, cheaper FF cameras over such a Z90. In addition, Nikon needs to flesh out the APS-C line of lenses for such a camera. I think the small market plus the needs for more APS-C lenses suggests that Nikon is not going to build this camera any time soon. There are simply a number of other cameras that will make them more money and are better supported by lenses already on the roadmap. As I said previously I think they will build such a camera, but I think 2025 is a good guess for when they will.
Dec 18, 2021 at 12:59 AM
Steve Spencer Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: Off
JasonTheBirder wrote:
Definitely true but for some and perhaps many applications, a mirrorless Z90 on the AF level of the Z9, might actually make more sense than a Z9 even if it's priced at $3500 instead of the Z9's $5500, as long as it still has significantly better AF than the other non Z9 FF models. That's especially true if it's lighter. The Z9 is already 500g heavier than the D500, so I think a mirrorless Z90 that is maybe 100g lighter than a D500 would be a very compelling travel birding package paired with a 500pf or the upcoming 200-600.
I think a smaller 45 MP camera with the same sensor as the Z9 but with a smaller buffer and much weaker video for $4,000 would sell a lot better and Nikon would have time to flesh out their APS-C lineup. I think that camera, whether it is called a Z8 or is the Z7 III will likely come before that Z90 APS-C camera with a stacked sensor. Like I said I think a Z90 will come eventually I just don't think it will be a priority for Nikon. My guess is 2025 for the Z90.
I'm not sure another 45mp camera would make any sense for Nikon or Nikon shooters at this point. There's already Z7/II for great price and then the Z9 for pro action and sports work that's priced competitively. Had Nikon priced the Z9 somewhere greater than 6K USD, maybe a smaller camera with the same sensor couldve made sense. I feel Nikon should now try to have a Z8 with higher pixel count like 80 or even 100MP that can replace the D850 as a great all round camera. That coupled with a 30MP DX pro camera priced like a D500 or slightly more could be the best set of mirrorless offerings IMHO.
Steve Spencer wrote:
I think a smaller 45 MP camera with the same sensor as the Z9 but with a smaller buffer and much weaker video for $4,000 would sell a lot better and Nikon would have time to flesh out their APS-C lineup. I think that camera, whether it is called a Z8 or is the Z7 III will likely come before that Z90 APS-C camera with a stacked sensor. Like I said I think a Z90 will come eventually I just don't think it will be a priority for Nikon. My guess is 2025 for the Z90.
gannis wrote:
I'm not sure another 45mp camera would make any sense for Nikon or Nikon shooters at this point. There's already Z7/II for great price and then the Z9 for pro action and sports work that's priced competitively. Had Nikon priced the Z9 somewhere greater than 6K USD, maybe a smaller camera with the same sensor couldve made sense. I feel Nikon should now try to have a Z8 with higher pixel count like 80 or even 100MP that can replace the D850 as a great all round camera. That coupled with a 30MP DX pro camera priced like a D500 or slightly more could be the best set of mirrorless offerings IMHO.
I don't think it is either or. I think there is room for a high MP camera and room for a smaller 45 MP camera with the stacked sensor from the Z9. I think Nikon needs both. One can be called the Z8 and the other can be the Z7 III (or maybe the high resolution camera can have another name an the smaller camera with the 45 MP stacked sensor can be the Z8), but Nikon needs to follow up the success of the Z9 with additional compelling cameras and they need to address the Canon R5 and Sony A9 with a compelling smaller action camera. They also need to address the Canon R6 and the Sony A7 IV with a camera to replace the Z6 II. Finally both Canon and Sony are likely to have a super high MP camera before long and they need a camera to compete there too. To me this leaves a camera line up something like:
Z30 - still to come ultra low cost APS-C camera
Z50 II - middle of the road APS-C camera but will go up in MP to somewhere in the low 30s
Zfc - retro middle of the road APS-C camera
Z90 - fast APS-C camera with a stacked sensor
Z5 II - budget FF camera will likely get the sensor from the Z6/Z6II but will obviously come out after the Z6 III
Z6 III - bigger processor and new sensor with faster sensor read out, but probably just double the current sensor not the five times faster of a stacked sensor, likely more MP as well. 36 MP would be great.
Z7 III - my current guess is this will get the sensor from the Z9 but it will have a smaller buffer and be a much less capable video camera. It of course has the bigger processor too.
Z8 - current guess is an 80 MP or so sensor but won't shoot particularly fast. I doubt rumors of a stacked sensor but I do expect it to have the new bigger processor too.
Z9 - we know what this is.
In 2022 I expect we will get the Z30 and Z6III and maybe the Z8 or Z7 III
In 2023 I expect we will get whichever of the Z7 III or Z8 that we didn't get in 2022 and the Z5 II
In 2024 I expect a Z9 II and a Z50 II
In 2025 I expect a Z6 IV, a Z30 II, and then a Z90 (one of these camera might make it into 2024, but I think that is less likely).
These are just guesses of course but Nikon really needs to be competitive next at the low end, IMO and the Z90 I think will be a camera for later.
lionsfan54 wrote:
hey guys, what is the primary use case for a lens like this?
saaketham wrote:
- Birds (you can almost never get close enough without cropping)
- Wildlife that will eat you if you get within chasing distance
- Ex-wives
I find this so true about never having enough reach for birds without cropping. Yesterday I photographed a hawk and though it was about as close as they ever really get to me I still had nowhere near the reach needed at 500mm on my D850 and had to crop deeply for this image. For me the 800/6.3 will be a very welcome addition to the Z9 for BIF work if the price is not too high.
saaketham wrote:
- Birds (you can almost never get close enough without cropping)
- Wildlife that will eat you if you get within chasing distance
- Ex-wives
I don’t buy it. Sony has a whole line of these. And Canon is expected to put out the R7 APS-C next year. There’s a huge market of bird photographers out there. I’m guessing the Canon will be about $1999 or so. These cameras sell way more than a Z7ii or a Z9.
Steve Spencer wrote:
I actually said something about cheap and I think it is important. We know that Z6 series cameras are going to less than $2,000 and Z5 series cameras are going to be less than $1,200, so a $2,500 or even higher Z90 (or whatever a D500 type mirrorless would be called) might have a very small market. A lot of people might well prefer the higher MP, cheaper FF cameras over such a Z90. In addition, Nikon needs to flesh out the APS-C line of lenses for such a camera. I think the small market plus the needs for more APS-C lenses suggests that Nikon is not going to build this camera any time soon. There are simply a number of other cameras that will make them more money and are better supported by lenses already on the roadmap. As I said previously I think they will build such a camera, but I think 2025 is a good guess for when they will....Show more →
lionsfan54 wrote:
hey guys, what is the primary use case for a lens like this? Birding? Even the concerts I shoot, from way back, this would be way too much reach.
i'd use it with a z9 to shoot surfing, skiing, airplanes/helicopters, some extreme automotive situations, etc.
if it works with a tc, it could be a compelling case to either switch platforms or at least add the combo to whatever brand you already shoot.
osv2 wrote:
i'd use it with a z9 to shoot surfing, skiing, airplanes/helicopters, some extreme automotive situations, etc.
if it works with a tc, it could be a compelling case to either switch platforms or at least add the combo to whatever brand you already shoot.
I would add airshow photography.
I would bet that within a year 50% of the military plane photographers who can afford it will have bought this lens. It opens totally new opportunities.
jwolfe wrote:
I don’t buy it. Sony has a whole line of these. And Canon is expected to put out the R7 APS-C next year. There’s a huge market of bird photographers out there. I’m guessing the Canon will be about $1999 or so. These cameras sell way more than a Z7ii or a Z9.
To be clear Sony has exactly zero stacked sensor APS-C cameras. I don't expect they will bring one out soon. I don't think Nikon will either. I don't think the Canon R7 will have that type of sensor as well. You may be interested in an APS-C camera with a slow sensor scan speed, but I am not and I don't think it would do this lens we are talking about here justice but that is just me. If you like that sort of camera fine, but what I am talking about is a stacked sensor APS-C camera and I don't see that happening soon.
arbitrage wrote:
I wonder what will have better IQ....Z800S or Z400S TC with the built in and an external 1.4TC engaged? You will have 800/5.6 v 800/6.3. I'd assume the Z800S will be better. It is hard to get 2 TCs and still best a native lens.
The Z400S TC still is calling to me more than the Z800S for the versatility and ability to shoot at f/4 and f/2.8 during the dreary winter. But TCs rub me the wrong way these days despite years of using them all the time. Hmmmmm.....
I would have thought you'd want the 400S and 800S combo. 400S covers the 600S range, and 800S would be ideal for smaller species and much lighter than the 400S. And you can get 1120 f/9 with the 800S which would be all the FL range you'd ever need IMO and AF will still be excellent on the Z9. For me I doubt I could afford the 400S and 3kg+ is still heavier than I like to hand hold even though I can, I've just gotten used to how refreshing it is to use the 500 PF compared to my 500 f/4. I really hope they release 400 PF details early next year. If it's f/4-4.2 I may sell the 500 PF. What would be doubly fantastic is a 400 f/4 PF with built-in 1.4x TC.
this is me wrote:
I'm excited for this 800PF but I'll wait to see the numbers(weight) of the 400mmf2.8S. This will give us an idea of what the 600mm f4S will be. The two lens usually track each other pretty well in terms of weight and price.
hard to see how the 400 f/2.8S would be under 3kg, with the added 1.4x TC built-in. I think the Sony and Canon versions are at the limit of what's possible with glass elements and available alloys. I'd guess about 3.1kg and 600 f/4S I presume will have 1.4x TC built-in too, so looking at around 200g heavier.
One day we may see plastic polymer lenses with the requisite optical quality so we could reduce weight even more and maybe also composite non-metallic bodies. A 2kg 400 f/2.8 come 2030!
800PF. I met someone who had the 800 and he loved his. Actually, if Nikon produced an 800 f11 PF, I would be a lot more likely to purchase it than the 800 f6.3. 
