technic wrote:
If Nikon doesn't plan to offer a Z90 within a year or so (mirrorless version of D500 / APS-C version of Z9 with some of the pro stuff left out probably) they really need a D580 because otherwise there is a big gap in their lineup and people might move to other brands, especially if the price of Z9 (and updated D850) is pretty high.
Regarding the 600PF, I wonder how many of the potential customers for such a niche lens have moved to ML body or plan to move as soon as it is available. Is the customer base really bigger than all those existing "pro"/ wealthy users who still have a nice DSLR and plan to stick to it for now?
I agree a later introduction would make a Z mount version of the 600PF more realistic. An F mount lens can be used on Z mount, other way round is impossible. One might consider that an advantage in pushing customers to Z cameras, but it could also limit sales of a 600PF Z lens if customers for such a lens don't want to move to Z yet....Show more →
My guess is we will get a D880 is a bout a year's time or maybe a month or two later. Let's say between April and June 2022 and it will be a simple upgrade of the D850 with the Z7/II sensor with on sensor PDAF, and a function a lot like the Z7 through the EVF and the video of the Z7. That will be it, however, so a D850 with excellent live view. I don't know if they will sell many, but people who have kept their DSLR can then decide between the D880 and Z9 and Nikon can be happy with whatever they buy. I then expect a high MP Z7 III then end of 2022. That will further quell the desire for the D880. The Z9 will have the same or higher megapixels and shoot action a bit better than the D880, but for a slightly higher price. The Z7 III will shoot almost as fast as the D880 but have much higher resolution for about the same price. At that point it will primarily be those dedicated to using a DSLR that will buy the D880, but I think it will be important for Nikon to make that camera exactly for those people.
arbitrage wrote:
I think there is still a chance for a D850 update. It is a no brainer that one has been under development but that doesn't ensure it will hit the market. I see no chance of a D500 update..
That makes sense to me. My feeling is that the camera makers would really like to just kill crop sensor lines, except maybe at the very bottom end. In a way, especially as resolution is increasingly easy to offer, they are saying: here are the pixels on full frame: you decide if you crop them or not, not the camera.
NorthMac wrote:
That makes sense to me. My feeling is that the camera makers would really like to just kill crop sensor lines, except maybe at the very bottom end. In a way, especially as resolution is increasingly easy to offer, they are saying: here are the pixels on full frame: you decide if you crop them or not, not the camera.
If we could crop the FF camera itself too (in size and weight) that might be a more viable option
Spend a lot more, carry a significantly bigger and heavier camera (for DSLR), accept lower framerate etc. just because the manufacturer no longer wants to bother with APS-C? Doesn't sound like a solid plan to me...
I think the main improvements in the D850 successor will be the D6 AF system (all cross type sensors, custom group area AF, much faster and better multipoint AF etc.) and better CFexpress support can improve burst depth by 1/3 or more using Expeed 6. Of course the D6's AF processor comes with that system. Fine tuning will be reproducible (you know how much nicer it is to auto tune just once rather than taking 10 or 20 readings and averaging by hand) and accommodate two focal lengths for zooms. Snapbridge will work more fluidly. There would also be the option to use e.g. record button to change AF mode and AF area as on the D6. I'd like to see WT-6 support but it's unlikely as it would require large space for electronics inside the camera and these probably don't fit inside a body without integral grip.
There may or may not be on-sensor PDAF. The 45 MP sensor doesn't offer full frame full sensor readout video so it's not as well suited for video as the 24 MP sensor in the Z6 (II) and D780. Striping and banding may not be desirable in a camera that aims for high (still) image quality and excellent dynamic range.
Plenty of people find the availability of 30 lens types instead of 370 somewhat lacking despite the excellent quality of the lenses in the Z system. No fast medium teles and no tilt-shift lenses. Lack of second hand lenses is also making Z lens purchases more expensive than people are used to in DSLR systems with vivid second markets.
If no D850 update is offered, I'll need to purchase spare D850's.
technic wrote:
If we could crop the FF camera itself too (in size and weight) that might be a more viable option
Spend a lot more, carry a significantly bigger and heavier camera (for DSLR), accept lower framerate etc. just because the manufacturer no longer wants to bother with APS-C? Doesn't sound like a solid plan to me...
Ah, but the main context of this thread is the migration to Z mount, so my meaning was intended to be in the mirrorless world, I should have made that clear. And in that world, there is no weight and bulk penalty when a Sony or Nikon Z high-res FF camera weighs two-thirds what my D500 does. You will be correct on the higher price, though. And even in the DSLR side, I can even less imagine a new APSC high end camera.
As much as I want and would buy a 600pf I would prefer a 500pf. When you need a hand holdable small and light lens there is no way to top the 500pf. Assuming the Z9 is a proper action camera to rival an A1 or Canon equivalent, I would sell my f mount and purchase a Z mount 500pf in a split second.
NorthMac wrote:
And in that world, there is no weight and bulk penalty when a Sony or Nikon Z high-res FF camera weighs two-thirds what my D500 does. You will be correct on the higher price, though. And even in the DSLR side, I can even less imagine a new APSC high end camera.
That's true but if Nikon did make an APS-C mirrorless D500 successor, it would almost surely be lighter than the Z9.
The next Nikkor Z's won't be so predictable. I keep hearing about some less expected and different specs for the next round of lenses that are moving from the design to ready-for-production stage. In particular, it appears that Nikon won't repeat the same PF specs in the Z mount (e.g. no 300mm f/4), creating entirely new Z PF lenses (as I had hoped). Could it be that we'll have a full line of PF from 200 to 800mm, only some will be F-mount and some will be Z-mount? Only time will tell, but so far the whispers I've heard are "yes." Personally, 400mm f/4 S PF is what I want, and an 800mm f/8 S PF might prove interesting, too.
The next Nikkor Z's won't be so predictable. I keep hearing about some less expected and different specs for the next round of lenses that are moving from the design to ready-for-production stage. In particular, it appears that Nikon won't repeat the same PF specs in the Z mount (e.g. no 300mm f/4), creating entirely new Z PF lenses (as I had hoped). Could it be that we'll have a full line of PF from 200 to 800mm, only some will be F-mount and some will be Z-mount? Only time will tell, but so far the whispers I've heard are "yes." Personally, 400mm f/4 S PF is what I want, and an 800mm f/8 S PF might prove interesting, too. ...Show more →
I am in the Nikon waiting room, with no hurry, D500+500PF+Sig500/4.
Only thing that will get me on the mirrorless train is a Z600mm f5.6PF or a Z800mm f8PF, for either of those lenses, I am willing to buy into z-mount (again).
I accept that such lenses, or any lenses for that matter, in F-mount are out of the question, and the D500 will stop working someday, so it would be nice if Nikon ventured into such territory.
The 500PF is such a marvel, unbelievably small and light and does it all. If they can upscale that quality to 600mm f5.6, I will certainly want to be part of z mount.
So from my point of view, it would be very smart if Nikon started filling in the PF gaps with the missing lenses like 400/4, 600/5.6 and even 800/8, it could draw many D500/D850 users with one of the PF lenses into the mirrorless camp, provided that the Z9 is the start of Nikon's action Z camera line. If Nikon can keep up the high quality standard of the 500PF, it would have a truly unique lens line not available at the other brands.
