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 p.30 #15 · Official Z Series Camera and Lens Discussion | |
1bwana1 wrote:
Nikon has already said that mirrorless has slowed sales of it's traditional DSLR cameras significantly. They also project that they will be selling more mirrorless than DSLR by 2020. That is a fast shift in my opinion. Mirrorless is an existential challenge for Nikon (and all ICL companies) which is why I believe that they will solve the issues in the Z7/Z6 come out with a class leading mirrorless camera.
If you're referring to the dpreview interview, they said "Right now, mirrorless market share is around 40% but by 2020 and afterwards we expect that mirrorless will surpass DSLR." but this is referring to the overall mirrorless and DSLR markets and not Nikon's share of them. I don't think they have any realistic chance of matching their DSLR market share in mirrorless by 2020. Native lens line has a lot to do with market share and also certain brands are more popular than others (e.g. Canon). I am sure Nikon will in the long run be able to compete in and take a good market share in mirrorless (5+ years) but for now it seems like there is a long road towards it.
I actually think Nikon's entry in the full frame mirrorless is pretty impressive, the handling, operation and my first experiences with its performance are better than I would have expected. However, I don't have the intention of purchasing anything until at least certain key lenses are available, this includes native telephoto lenses such as the 85/1.8. It could take a few years before it becomes viable to me. 35/1.8+50/1.2+ 85/1.8 would be an interesting kit to me, augmented with FTZ adapted F mount lenses. However, it's not clear yet whether I will get a mirrorless camera. The Z6 is the first one which I might seriously consider, but more likely I will wait for the next generation. The Z7 seems overkill in terms of file size for my purposes, and is priced unnecessarily high.
I don't consider the automatic subject tracking a priority for me, I'm mostly a single point / small group of points (either group-area or 9/25 point dynamic area in DSLRs) autofocus user, preferring manual control over camera making major decisions about where to focus on. When I played around with the Z7, I didn't find any difficulty in controlling the autofocus the way I normally shoot. What was new is that the focusing was almost completely silent (35/1.8 S), I loved that aspect of it.
With regards to "No question it can be shot around with some effort most of the time. But why do that when the industry has better solutions?", as noted by others, there are many factors that influence camera choice. I have to feel I would enjoy using the camera. I want the camera to have controls which I feel at home with, and grip and positioning of buttons such that would make it easy to use it in cold weather with gloves on. I won't buy a camera which makes me feel nauseated when viewing through the EVF. Manual focus is important but not via zoomed viewfinder image, as I need to be able to see the overall composition while focusing, thus the resolution of the live view image in the EVF is important, as it lack of flickering, flashing, accentuated lines etc. artifacts. I have periodically investigated the viewing experience of EVFs over the past few years and the Z7 was the first EVF where I did not feel appalled. I don't know if I will eventually buy a Z series camera, but it didn't feel as bad as other electronic viewfinders that I've tried. The general feeling and user experience (from a Nikon shooter's perspective) was very pleasing, and this is a good start in my book. The zoomed-in EVF experience was awful but I wouldn't be using that anyway (the firmware update is said to reduce the lag there). For zoomed-in viewing for manual focusing, I would use a tripod instead, and the back LCD.
I recognize that Sony are ahead in autofocus, especially with their A9; hopefully in the next few years Nikon catches up in this respect. But in the meanwhile I have no issue using DSLRs for action, and in fact generally prefer them, the only major drawbacks are lack of usable video AF (in Nikon DSLRs), and the sound noise that comes from the DSLR cameras. With the Z7 I felt the sound was soft and pleasing. Later on perhaps Nikon can also provide an A9-like experience with fast electronic shutter.
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but not overnight like stopping DSLRs development and just going mirrorless (like Sony did with A mount which was right for them because of negligible user base. I had A68 and few primes so I know 
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