p.4 #1 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
goosemang wrote:
the point is that people like us (photo forum posters, etc.) think that we somehow know more about the industry than those running it. which is patently absurd.
On the other hand, under-estimating the opinions of the self-labelled enthusiasts is also not clever. We may not be able to run a successful photographic manufacturing company, but we are capable of recognising mistakes when we see them.
p.4 #2 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
Well how about John Chambers Cisco CEO ?. Does he know anything about routing ? Does he write any darn code ? Which company has the most routers in the world ?. Guess what ? Cisco.
When you say he is wrong how do you know ?. Do you know better about the market than Maeda ?.
carstenw wrote:
Did he design some of their most successful cameras? Did he design some of their most successful lenses? Did he single-mindedly orchestrate some amazingly successful strategy which put them on top? No, no, no => random guy, org chart filler
Err... So does everyone else. What is the point of this sentence?
p.4 #3 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
Well how about John Chambers Cisco CEO ?. Does he know anything about routing ? Does he write any darn code ? Which company has the most routers in the world ?. Guess what ? Cisco.
When you say he is wrong how do you know ?. Do you know better about the market than Maeda ?.
carstenw wrote:
Did he design some of their most successful cameras? Did he design some of their most successful lenses? Did he single-mindedly orchestrate some amazingly successful strategy which put them on top? No, no, no => random guy, org chart filler
Err... So does everyone else. What is the point of this sentence?
p.4 #4 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
carstenw wrote:
On the other hand, under-estimating the opinions of the self-labelled enthusiasts is also not clever. We may not be able to run a successful photographic manufacturing company, but we are capable of recognising mistakes when we see them.
Photographic nerds are also more likely to purchase newer gear every year or two, and will probably be the ones "new" photographers looking to move up from a camera phone may be willing to ask for advice. For instance, I recommended to my brother to buy a NEX rather than a tradional dslr around the world (despite myself owning two camera bodies at the time), I played with it a little, and now full circle I have purchased one as well to supplant my traditional DSLR.
Sometimes the market moves a lot slower than the early adopters, but eventually that mass grows. It took a couple of generations of the iPhone before it really exploded.
Something may yet move the market in a different direction, but for now, it seems like those that are looking for something different are looking elsewhere beyond their dslr.
p.4 #5 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
carstenw wrote:
Did he design some of their most successful cameras? Did he design some of their most successful lenses? Did he single-mindedly orchestrate some amazingly successful strategy which put them on top? No, no, no => random guy, org chart filler
Well, considering that their cameras aren't significantly better than the competition, and their lenses aren't significantly better than the competition, and yet they dominate in terms of market share: yes, I would say he has orchestrated an amazingly successful strategy which has put them on top.
p.4 #6 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
kewlcanon wrote:
Well how about John Chambers Cisco CEO ?. Does he know anything about routing ? Does he write any darn code ? Which company has the most routers in the world ?. Guess what ? Cisco.
Did you deliberately leave out the part I wrote about execution? This is about execution. As an aside, I don't expect that in this segment the two deviate significantly, but high sales numbers alone are not impressive. High sales numbers and high profit are. In our case, selling millions of P&S cameras will not make as much profit as selling an order of magnitude less DSLRs, and so on.
p.4 #7 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
alwang wrote:
Well, considering that their cameras aren't significantly better than the competition, and their lenses aren't significantly better than the competition, and yet they dominate in terms of market share: yes, I would say he has orchestrated an amazingly successful strategy which has put them on top.
p.4 #8 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
kewlcanon wrote:
When you say he is wrong how do you know ?. Do you know better about the market than Maeda ?.
I didn't say he was wrong. I said his interview was content-free. He is only going to say what serves Canon the best, not necessarily what is true. I am not saying that they deviate, but they easily could. For example, how long do you think has to pass with mirrorless cameras outselling DSLRs before the top Canon guy would say so, just theoretically? Zero gap between the two? Years and years?
p.4 #9 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
alwang wrote:
Well, considering that their cameras aren't significantly better than the competition, and their lenses aren't significantly better than the competition, and yet they dominate in terms of market share: yes, I would say he has orchestrated an amazingly successful strategy which has put them on top.
people forget that these are businesses, first and foremost. it doesn't matter if this guy has never released a shutter once in his life. they don't pay him to make the cameras that 1% of the market wants, they pay him to generate revenue.
personally, as a photographer, i'd rather buy something like an OM-D than a t3i. but guess what? every Wal Mart, Target, etc. in the country sells the latter. Because that's what's generating the revenue. If companies with smaller market share can make it work by producing these more specialized cameras, such as the X100, that's fantastic, both for them and for us. But that's not the role Canon is playing in the market. Does anybody think that if they were seriously losing revenue and market share to these other companies they wouldn't act to plug the leak?
p.4 #10 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
I responded to your post as it was posted.
carstenw wrote:
Did you deliberately leave out the part I wrote about execution? This is about execution. As an aside, I don't expect that in this segment the two deviate significantly, but high sales numbers alone are not impressive. High sales numbers and high profit are. In our case, selling millions of P&S cameras will not make as much profit as selling an order of magnitude less DSLRs, and so on.
p.4 #12 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
How do I know ?. I don't direct a camera company. I only read and participate in several photography forums but they're small scale markets.
The only thing I can tell you from my experience on B&S or Craigslist forum that it's a lot harder to sell m43 or NEX gear for example than selling DSLR cameras or lenses. I've also observed people ditching mirrorless for a newer, cheaper, and lighter FF DSLRs.
carstenw wrote:
I didn't say he was wrong. I said his interview was content-free. He is only going to say what serves Canon the best, not necessarily what is true. I am not saying that they deviate, but they easily could. For example, how long do you think has to pass with mirrorless cameras outselling DSLRs before the top Canon guy would say so, just theoretically? Zero gap between the two? Years and years?
p.4 #13 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
I mean think about this statement:
"The management at Canon are unaware of the impact that new, mirror-less camera systems are having on the world market. Blind to this, they are making uninformed business decisions that will result in a serious decline in the profitability of their camera division in the future."
This is like saying McDonalds is going to go out of business because they're unaware that people think beef is high in cholesterol. It's absurd to think that these massive companies aren't making informed decisions about this type of stuff. Maybe they are, but I'd put my money on Canon before some loudmouth in his bedroom on dpreview.
p.4 #14 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
No leader can do that, even Steve Jobs, do you think he designed the iphone/ipod hardware. It's clear what Maeda provides is a leadership which doesn't always mean he has to get his hands dirty like those engineers.
carstenw wrote:
This is what I was referring to:
"Did he single-mindedly orchestrate some amazingly successful strategy which put them on top?"
p.4 #15 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
the other thing is, think about the role these companies choose to play. or rather, think about the roles other companies choose to play, and how you decide to interact (or not) with these companies.
think about fast food again. mcdonalds, wendy's, burger king... all of these companies are clamoring for the biggest piece of the pie, right? the biggest market share. now, as a consumer say you like hamburgers that, you know, don't look like they've been kept warm in someones underwear. what do you do? well, you go down the street to a smaller hamburger stand and get a real burger. BUT, the vast majority of consumers are happy to have the underwear burger. your decision to buy a real burger at a small establishment has basically zero impact on the business of mcdonalds, etc.
well, maybe not zero impact. in order to bring back the few people who are on the fence they'll release a special burger with an actual slice of tomato on it, and double the price. but you're a lost cause to them, because they're never going to produce the product you want. the real burger down the street IS the better burger, but the 99% (lol) don't want to pay $10 for it.
honestly, as photographers we should be happy that the "mcdonalds of the photo industry" are canon and nikon. imagine if these companies actually served up such low quality offerings?
although i do have to say that the crayola camera i bought my son for christmas is a real piece of crap...
p.4 #17 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
Well, here's my take. When I bought my first Nex (the 7) last year, I did not think about a change of paradigmas at all. This year (2 weeks ago) I bought the Fuji X-E1 and since I have it, it was almost the only camera I used (except for comparision shots with my 5dII). Once getting into it, DSLRs quickly start to feel very very big and heavy.
To me it seems obvious that the great days of DSLRs are over. The AF speed of mirrorless will get better, with integration of phase detection AF. Right now the AF of those mirrorless still has this "compact camera" feeling, but once the transistion will be done, this will be the point where bigger chunks of the DSLR mass market will start to fall towards mirrorless systems (including the micro 4/3). They already do. Same for EVF quality. Not very exciting now, but in 4 years will be a different story.
I also think that with excellent lenses like the 35/1,4 for Fuji X the necessity for FF + fast lenses is much lower now, the look of that Fuji glass is gorgeous, and I expect the coming lenses to perform similar: 23/1,4 and 56/1,4... I hardly feel the need to adapt my manual Zeiss lenses.
However one thing I wonder is when Nikon and Canon will start to take that market more serious. I'd not be surprised if - once mirrorless systems approach a state of maturity - both manufacturers will quickly loose importance and see their market share drop dramatically.
I will keep my 5dII for now, but I don't see myself buying another DSLR anytime soon.
p.4 #18 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
alba63 wrote:
Well, here's my take. When I bought my first Nex (the 7) last year, I did not think about a change of paradigmas at all. This year (2 weeks ago) I bought the Fuji X-E1 and since I have it, it was almost the only camera I used (except for comparision shots with my 5dII). Once getting into it, DSLRs quickly start to feel very very big and heavy.
To me it seems obvious that the great days of DSLRs are over. The AF speed of mirrorless will get better, with integration of phase detection AF. Right now the AF of those mirrorless still has this "compact camera" feeling, but once the transistion will be done, this will be the point where bigger chunks of the DSLR mass market will start to fall towards mirrorless systems (including the micro 4/3). They already do. Same for EVF quality. Not very exciting now, but in 4 years will be a different story.
I also think that with excellent lenses like the 35/1,4 for Fuji X the necessity for FF + fast lenses is much lower now, the look of that Fuji glass is gorgeous, and I expect the coming lenses to perform similar: 23/1,4 and 56/1,4... ...Show more →
the x100 is slowly killing my DSLR. every day that passes i'm more likely to use the x100. now i only use the DSLR when i know i'm going to be out in crappy weather, or when i need to nail shots in fast moving, gotta-nail-it situations. can't wait for the day things like the fuji's improve to the point where i can unload all that heavy gear.
p.4 #19 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
Just some random predictions:
• Software is getting more important in photography, hardware otoh is getting less important. Apps make the camera of the future.
• Android is going to be an important operating system for cameras and photographic applications
• we will see the implementation of the "open camera" a camera with a license free lens mount and Android operating system
• New technologies will make small sensors capable to emulate rendering on big sensors
• SLR segment will decrease significantly and ultimately disappear, mirrorless is the future
• phonecams are the mass cameras of the future, and will incorporate system camera segment within 10 years.
• almost every camera will be a connected camera (via smartphone or comm-mod)
• full frame is the format for professional and serious enthusiast photographers
• Prices of enthusiast cameras will go down. Prices of cameras and lenses in the (semi-) professional market will go up significantly. As a result we will see a more clear cut between a pro-segment and a segment for the enthusiast. This is in fact already happening, watch pricing of the latest pro camera models and HQ long glass, vs. new competitive enthusiast models.
• Sony and Canon have the best chances to be the brands for professional imaging and broadcast market.
• From the two dominant marketplayers at the moment, Canon will lose significantly in the enthusiast market as a result of their conservative vision on things like Android and mirrorless. Nikon not manufacturing all components and a more progressive vision on camera developments is in fact better positioned.
p.4 #20 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
goosemang wrote:
personally, as a photographer, i'd rather buy something like an OM-D than a t3i. but guess what? every Wal Mart, Target, etc. in the country sells the latter. Because that's what's generating the revenue. If companies with smaller market share can make it work by producing these more specialized cameras, such as the X100, that's fantastic, both for them and for us. But that's not the role Canon is playing in the market. Does anybody think that if they were seriously losing revenue and market share to these other companies they wouldn't act to plug the leak?
they did do something to plug the leak – they introduced their own line of mirrorless cameras. in the japanese market, which tends to be pretty important to japanese companies (though there is a lot of interest markets with large potential for growth in china and south asia as well), mirrorless cameras accounted for almost half the sales of interchangeable lens cameras. that is a huge change from a few years ago. thom hogan lists some of the numbers here: http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/december-2012/bcns-preliminary-2012-numbe.html
