p.5 #1 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
I can see low and mid-end APS-C DSLRs being replaced by mirrorless cameras especially as AF continues to improve on them. Though, I don't think the DSLR form factor will disappear any time soon. Some lenses like a FF 24-70mm f2.8 or a 70-200mm f2.8 would be rather unfriendly ergonomically on a mirrorless camera.
p.5 #2 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
kewlcanon wrote:
How do I know ?. I don't direct a camera company. I only read and participate in several photography forums but they're small scale markets.
The only thing I can tell you from my experience on B&S or Craigslist forum that it's a lot harder to sell m43 or NEX gear for example than selling DSLR cameras or lenses. I've also observed people ditching mirrorless for a newer, cheaper, and lighter FF DSLRs.
Don't forget that the US is the worst market for mirrorless cameras, according to the Canon guy, so what you see is at one extreme end of the spectrum. The other thing is that while these cameras are new and establishing themselves, it may well take a salesman to explain the features. Once people understand what these cameras are about a bit better, they will probably sell better used.
p.5 #3 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
goosemang wrote:
I mean think about this statement:
"The management at Canon are unaware of the impact that new, mirror-less camera systems are having on the world market. Blind to this, they are making uninformed business decisions that will result in a serious decline in the profitability of their camera division in the future."
This is like saying McDonalds is going to go out of business because they're unaware that people think beef is high in cholesterol. It's absurd to think that these massive companies aren't making informed decisions about this type of stuff. Maybe they are, but I'd put my money on Canon before some loudmouth in his bedroom on dpreview....Show more →
I agree that Canon must be seeing what is happening, and that they are making decisions, informed even. But I don't see anything yet which looks like a sensible response, just a mild jab at it, with the G1X and EOS-M. It will take a lot more than that to make a dent, and even more to swing the momentum back towards Canon.
My personal opinion is that the more successful companies are, the harder it is for them to react to disruptive changes, and we may well be witnessing the beginning of the weakening of Canon's strength.
p.5 #4 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
kewlcanon wrote:
No leader can do that, even Steve Jobs, do you think he designed the iphone/ipod hardware. It's clear what Maeda provides is a leadership which doesn't always mean he has to get his hands dirty like those engineers.
Huh? It is like you didn't see my quote. Here it is again:
"Did he single-mindedly orchestrate some amazingly successful strategy which put them on top?"
What Steve Jobs provided was the leadership and decision-making required to get Apple from the bottom back to the top. Has Maeda done that for Canon, or did he inherit the company at a high, and just keep it there, more or less?
p.5 #5 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
sebboh wrote:
they did do something to plug the leak – they introduced their own line of mirrorless cameras. in the japanese market, which tends to be pretty important to japanese companies (though there is a lot of interest markets with large potential for growth in china and south asia as well), mirrorless cameras accounted for almost half the sales of interchangeable lens cameras. that is a huge change from a few years ago. thom hogan lists some of the numbers here: http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/december-2012/bcns-preliminary-2012-numbe.html
So far there is no evidence that Canon's strategy is effective:
"Olympus 29.8%, Panasonic 23.6%, Sony 20%, Nikon 14.3%, and Canon 2.1%"
We will have to re-evaluate in one year, but if Japan is Canon's best market, then their mirrorless strategy is nowhere. Nikon has done really well in Asia with the 1 system, but in Europe and especially the US, there is less penetration than MFT and NEX.
p.5 #6 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
alba63 wrote:
Well, here's my take. When I bought my first Nex (the 7) last year, I did not think about a change of paradigmas at all. This year (2 weeks ago) I bought the Fuji X-E1 and since I have it, it was almost the only camera I used (except for comparision shots with my 5dII). Once getting into it, DSLRs quickly start to feel very very big and heavy.
To me it seems obvious that the great days of DSLRs are over. The AF speed of mirrorless will get better, with integration of phase detection AF. Right now the AF of those mirrorless still has this "compact camera" feeling, but once the transistion will be done, this will be the point where bigger chunks of the DSLR mass market will start to fall towards mirrorless systems (including the micro 4/3). They already do. Same for EVF quality. Not very exciting now, but in 4 years will be a different story....Show more →
Yes, at some point the acceptance will hit a high, and things will look very different. I am actively watching the segment, but for now I am happy to just have an MFT camera and watch things unfold. I still prefer using my D800, I just don't like carrying it with several lenses unless I am doing something focused. The E-PL3 I bring everywhere I don't bring the D800.
I would be very curious to see your X-E1. I have only seen the MFT cameras (of which I prefer the E-PL models) and the NEX cameras (whose construction, menus and operation I generally don't like much, but of the ones I have tried, I found the NEX-6 quite nice, with the NEX-7 a little behind).
p.5 #7 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
carstenw wrote:
Dominate? Numbers please.
Numbers for Japan, from Thom:
"Overall interchangeable lens camera sales (mirrorless and DSLR) in Japan put Canon at 28.6%, Nikon at 25%, Olympus at 14.3%, Sony at 13.3%, and Panasonic at 11.3%."
For the mirrorless segment, Olympus+Panasonic gives MFT, more or less, and this puts them right in the fight with Canon and Nikon, but purely with mirrorless.
p.5 #8 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
As I've said no leader has done it..not even Steve Jobs, he had great people surrounding him. Maybe a question for you why NeXT didn't fly ?. It's a basic foundation on how to have a great company.
Are you saying without those great people around him Steve would make it ?. As far as Maeda his circumstances is different just like Chambers or many CEOs.
Since you enjoy researching probably you can tell me who own DSLR/camera market right now ?.
carstenw wrote:
Huh? It is like you didn't see my quote. Here it is again:
"Did he single-mindedly orchestrate some amazingly successful strategy which put them on top?"
What Steve Jobs provided was the leadership and decision-making required to get Apple from the bottom back to the top. Has Maeda done that for Canon, or did he inherit the company at a high, and just keep it there, more or less?
p.5 #9 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
kewlcanon wrote:
Since you enjoy researching probably you can tell me who own DSLR/camera market right now ?.
canikon own the ILC market. if you include p&s cameras maybe you could say canon dominates nikon but in the ILC market canon has lost a lot of it's dominance since the time nikon only did DX. thom hogan (again cause i'm lazy) says: "Canon's last projection: 9.2 million units. Nikon's last projection: 7.1 million". i would say there is still some heavy competition between those two globally, if you break it down by region the story could be a little different. e.g. it seems like µ4/3 has like 25% of the ILC market in japan while canon has 29% and nikon has 25%.
p.5 #10 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
eosfun wrote:
Just some random predictions:
• Software is getting more important in photography, hardware otoh is getting less important. Apps make the camera of the future.
• Android is going to be an important operating system for cameras and photographic applications
• we will see the implementation of the "open camera" a camera with a license free lens mount and Android operating system
• New technologies will make small sensors capable to emulate rendering on big sensors
• SLR segment will decrease significantly and ultimately disappear, mirrorless is the future
• phonecams are the mass cameras of the future, and will incorporate system camera segment within 10 years.
• almost every camera will be a connected camera (via smartphone or comm-mod)
• full frame is the format for professional and serious enthusiast photographers
• Prices of enthusiast cameras will go down. Prices of cameras and lenses in the (semi-) professional market will go up significantly. As a result we will see a more clear cut between a pro-segment and a segment for the enthusiast. This is in fact already happening, watch pricing of the latest pro camera models and HQ long glass, vs. new competitive enthusiast models.
• Sony and Canon have the best chances to be the brands for professional imaging and broadcast market.
• From the two dominant marketplayers at the moment, Canon will lose significantly in the enthusiast market as a result of their conservative vision on things like Android and mirrorless. Nikon not manufacturing all components and a more progressive vision on camera developments is in fact better positioned. ...Show more →
Esofun, Nice post. I agree most of what you say.
Kewlcanon, goosemang, I guess your point is Canon is doing fine will do fine in the future. and Canon CEO(or whoever) know what is going on.
Given exact what have they done, I disagree with they will be fine. and I doubt they can keep it up like now. He might know what is going on, but won’t talk truth loudly in public.
The problem for Canikon is aggressively promote MILC will hurt their DSLR core business. But there is really nothing to lose but gain with Sony, Fuji, Olympus, and Panasonics. Since we all know and like talk apple: Iphone, this is the case three years ago with iphone introduction , there is nothing to lose but gain for apple.(but not anymore) Don’t you believe Motorola, Nokia or Rim doesn’t know what is going on at the time of first iphone out, but what can they do? RIM seems fine with first one or two year after iphone, but how about now?
I think what this thread talking about is: future, not now. So, 6D fly off the shelf won't be relevant as much even assume that is true. I know many people hold lots red ring lens eagerly waiting for 5DII successor for years. The first year number won't tell us anything given the back log of people waiting for such affordable FF DSLR for years.
p.5 #11 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
jonrock wrote:
I can see low and mid-end APS-C DSLRs being replaced by mirrorless cameras especially as AF continues to improve on them. Though, I don't think the DSLR form factor will disappear any time soon. Some lenses like a FF 24-70mm f2.8 or a 70-200mm f2.8 would be rather unfriendly ergonomically on a mirrorless camera.
The size and bulk of the 24-70 and 70-200 is partially due to the sensor to mount distance. I suspect that if this distance were reduced (as it would be on a milc) then the these kinds of lenses would get smaller.
p.5 #12 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
A point that not has been made in this thread so far is the production capacity of Canon and Nikon is becoming rapidly "old fashioned". One of the main advantages of compact mirrorless system cameras is they can be produced much more similar like smartphones. Manufacturing, in the ethymological meaning of the word, = assembly by hand= is still a great part of the production process of D-SLR's. The mirrorless breed of cameras can be produced in much higher volumes at much lower cost in much more automated assembly. The amount of cellphones that come out of the factories of Apple and Samsung for instance are incredibly higher than cameras. Mirrorless though comes much closer in terms of manhour per camera than DSLR's do. It's this heritage of armies of assembly personnel and equipment that is becoming a millstone around the neck of traditional camera manufacturers. They will have to cut costs sooner rather than later.
This will have consequences for the design of the camera. An EVF and it's calibration on a mirrorless is much easier and faster in the production process than a mirrrorbox, pentaprism, and it's alignment for a DSLR. The camera manufacturers need less employees for that, they rapidly start to make more profit per unit since EVF screens start dropping in price significantly. Add to that the fact that most people are used to cellphone screens as a viewfinder for their smartphone cams. There are a lot of people here at FM, who don't like the idea of the replacement of the OVF by the EVF. They are willing to pay a premium in the future for a camera with an EVF. But the mainstream will be EVF, more features and lower prices. Camera manufacturers will decide on market demand, but the state of the industry is based on the production facilities at the supply side as well. On the one hand that side doesn't change rapidly for some of the traditional camera manufacturers, on the other hand some manufacturers make use of the new opportunities that the market creates, while they have no legacy and/or a better vision on the rapidly changing technology and it's applications.
p.5 #13 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
kewlcanon wrote:
As I've said no leader has done it..not even Steve Jobs, he had great people surrounding him. Maybe a question for you why NeXT didn't fly ?. It's a basic foundation on how to have a great company.
Are you saying without those great people around him Steve would make it ?. As far as Maeda his circumstances is different just like Chambers or many CEOs.
Since you enjoy researching probably you can tell me who own DSLR/camera market right now ?.
Look, this is getting silly. Independent critical thinking is desired here. About Steve Jobs: he fired the useless people and hired the great people; they weren't just hanging out there when he came.
p.5 #14 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
I don't see any critical thinking...the thing that I read is...Maeda is a nobody..an org chart filler...that kind of statement sound like ignorance and arrogance to me.
carstenw wrote:
Look, this is getting silly. Independent critical thinking is desired here. About Steve Jobs: he fired the useless people and hired the great people; they weren't just hanging out there when he came.
p.5 #15 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
kewlcanon wrote:
Since you enjoy researching probably you can tell me who own DSLR/camera market right now ?.
The market shares have been stable for the last decade, at least for the last 8 years: Canon about 40%, Nikon 10-15% less worldwide. Which is partly simply inertness of the mass of customers. I don't think the majority that stays with Canon does so for the more pleasing colour rendition or skin tones, they do because from one point Canon has been considered the better manufacturer.
However the DSLR market is saturated and while market share inside DSLRs may stay stable for another few years, the entire DSLR market will look increasingly to the mirrorless market. First only a few percent, then more rapidly. In about 5 years there will probably be no technical reason for the average shooter and camera enthousiast to choose a heavy DSLR. Mirrorless will focus quick enough the EVF will be very good etc.
Very well possible that my trusty old 5dII will be my last DSLR.
p.5 #16 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
I agree with most of EOSfun's predictions.
In addition, I predict imaging will become more and more video based.
I also feel larger formats with optical viewfinders (FF and larger) will continue to be around and rule professional and serious enthusiast needs.
People like to embrace the Nex, M43, Fuji, etc., but for me it is an "in between" search. For me, the bodies are too small, and controls always under thumb.
My prediction is that we will continue along today's trajectory: 1) small fixed lens all-in-one camera with increasing IQ and more powerful computing, and 1) pro-style interchangeable components with increased resolution and controls.
And I'm sure there will always be offerings in between, mean cameras like mirrorless.
Eventually, I think small tablet/phono style will take over and interchangeable lenses will seem archaic.
p.5 #17 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
kewlcanon wrote:
I don't see any critical thinking...the thing that I read is...Maeda is a nobody..an org chart filler...that kind of statement sound like ignorance and arrogance to me.
It is possible that I am ignorant of something he has done. Do you actually know of something significant he has done?
To me the heroes are almost always the engineers, the programmers, the designers. Very few leaders are not replaceable. Steve Jobs was one. I am not sure I am aware of others, although I am sure that there are some. Oh, Bob Moog was another.
p.5 #18 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
You can search the web if you want to know. My comment is not directed specifically to Maeda, it's just general suggestion not to belittle anybody that has been in the industry for a while.
carstenw wrote:
It is possible that I am ignorant of something he has done. Do you actually know of something significant he has done?
To me the heroes are almost always the engineers, the programmers, the designers. Very few leaders are not replaceable. Steve Jobs was one. I am not sure I am aware of others, although I am sure that there are some. Oh, Bob Moog was another.
p.5 #19 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
It is, has been and always will be the the designers - these people are the explorers of what is possible, what works for humans, what can be passed on, first to enlightened risk takers in private sector management; then finally to the engineers. The greatest force on earth is the human imagination. There is not much future in re-engineering or programming a rock.
I wonder aloud whether it it is ever going to be possible to omit the deification of the Jobs fellow, I mean I know a lot of people here have a (to me unhealthy) regard for this character but it is not too late to get over it.
FWIW, my favourite guys are Alan Cooper and Don Norman, but you will have to look them up, because household names they ain't. I guess their PR was not good enough!
p.5 #20 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
Maeda, assuming you do not refer to the fine mini cranes but the guy named John Maeda, I checked out a talk he gave, or perhaps I should say:
I kinda like turned on my computer, you have one of those too I guess, anyway I kinda found my way to his er, like, talk video, and I like listened a little and I was like, uh, wow.
He struck me as a modern day, gen Y friendly charlatan specialising in self promotion and new age design snake oil. Nice linen coat though, if a little (OK, a lot) metrosexual. He belongs in a great old movie called Liquid Sky.
