Hey folks, as the rumor chatter is on the increase, we're making another Command Decision, and bringing back the wildly popular 'Un-Official' Rumor Thread! From now until eternity (approximately the date of PMA or not-so-shortly thereafter ), all rumor-related (and 'want', 'need', 'request', 'price speculation', etc.) posts shall be posted here, in this thread, not in their own, often redundant thread. Please note that knowingly 'false' information or rumors should not be circulated for the 'fun' of it.

Any separately-posted rumor threads will be deleted, so get them in the right spot, people. As previously discussed late last year (ad nauseum), this is put into effect in the interest of keeping the Canon forum's interface relatively 'clean', so rampant duscussion on the merits of the approach is unnecessary.

Carry on.

Jeff
FM.com Moderator

PS: FredMiranda.com is in no way advocating nor lending credence to anything that appears below; I am simply trying to keep the forum organized during this 'busy' time of year. Buyer beware.

Oh yeah, I guess I'll start things off: I think there'll be an update to the venerable 1Ds-Series camera.

You can quote me on that.

And I think there will be an update to the venerable 1D :

Look at this:
http://skyblue04.egloos.com/2864840

However, must be treated with a Double Grain-Of-Salt ...

I think there will be a new lens introduced...

Another one, 1Ds Tc

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1032&message=21590547

But... Let's recap.

1Ds Mk III: Rumour and expectations suggest possibly 22 mpixel, possibly hybrid 5 fps full frame and 8 fps auto-crop, maybe even a Foveon style 12 mpixel 3-layer sensor. DIGIC III is very likely.

1D Mk III: Not much to go on, bump to 12 mpixel, still the fps machinegun for sports we know and love.

5D: Will likely get a 20D/30D like upgrade, bump in resolution not very likely, minor adjustments and improvements and DIGIC III. After all, this baby is 18 months old, come PMA, and it could do with internal reworkings to save on cost and decrease warranty issues. There is no competition out there, so nothing dramatic is expected. Maybe it will get sensor cleaning.

40D: Yes, yes, the 30D really needs a successor, with the likes of the D200 and Pentax K10D breathing down its neck. Bump to 10 mpixel, sensor cleaning, improved AF, DIGIC III. The debate on wheter it will make the move to APS-H is chugging along nicely, no clear winner on APS-C or APS-H yet. It may be too early for APS-H, that may be a thing for the 50D, in 2 years time.

APS-H would distinguish the 40D nicely from all the 10 mpixel competition out there, with 50% more sensor surface compared to APS-C, so it would alleviate the problems of increased pixel density. But, it'd take a bite out of EF-S sales. Then again, as far as wel can tell, Canon is committed to full frame for anything except entry level, so who knows...

400D: It will have... Oh, wait, it's here already

And if I go into speculation overdrive, then there may be a 4000D, a 8 mpixel APS-C lovechild of a digicompact and a dSLR, with a live viewfinder, no mirror, and EF/EF-S mount. But maybe that's a bit too much uncertainty.

Oh, and thanks to Doug Pardee's dilligent work, here's when to expect announcements:

Let's look at the history:

2006: All announcements (including 30D) on Feb 21; show started Feb 26
2005: Most announcements (including 350D) on Feb 17; show started Feb 20
2004: Most announcements on Feb 9 (1DmkII on Jan 29); show started Feb 12
2003: All announcements (including 10D) on Feb 27; show started Mar 2
2002: All announcements (including D60) on Feb 22; show started Feb 24

So generally, 3 to 5 days in advance.

PMA this year starts March 8.
Original post here: http://www.fredmiranda.com/forum/topic/492792/0

Edited by Tentacle on Jan 15, 2007 at 03:55 PM GMT

roli_bark wrote:
And I think there will be an update to the venerable 1D :

Look at this:
http://skyblue04.egloos.com/2864840

However, must be treated with a Double Grain-Of-Salt ...

That's a foveon like sensor with three layers of pixels, without a AA-filter ?

I would like that for the sucessor of the 5D

1DMk3, (renamed 3D). Prediction only.

Lisa

Yeepee! We've got our official romping place!

See my avatar (and sig), for what I'm waiting for

That's all I want. With improved AF which comes with viewfinder filling AF points. I mean it's FF. No need of new sensor for me. Improved LCD and slightly higher FPS will do the job. Weather-sealing would be nice, then again, it's not a 1-series.




Edited by Philippe Arnez on Jan 15, 2007 at 04:16 PM GMT

I think there will be a new camera introduced.

lisantica wrote:
1DMk3, (renamed 3D). Prediction only.

I'm trying to get my head around the "why". Can you elaborate? When I read 1D, I think "Brick", "Bulletproof", "Über AF" and "Weathersealed." Oh, and "Wannahave!!!" too, but that's beside the point.

The EOS 3 has the 45-point AF system, but it doesn't have the weathersealing. So why would Canon all of a sudden ignore the EOS 1V pedigree and point to a lesser cousin?

I don't have (and probably never will) the 1-series body, but I think the dire need for an upgrade is in battery area. I think everyone's mad with the batteries that look like M16A2 ammo magazines and the archaic NiMH design too.
That would require a slight redesign of the body though, it would make it a bit smaller/lighter IMO (which is a welcome improvement, since it weights 1.5 kg).

This is all I need in order to be happy like a pig on a Laguardia runway:

EF 200mm f/2.0L IS USM (MSR $3,799)
EF 400mm f/5.6L IS USM (MSR $1,399)
EF 50mm f/1.2L USM MkII (MSR $1,499)
EOS 3D (1.6 CF, 5D high ISO performance, MkIIN AF system) (MSR $ 2,399)

This thread on DPReview continues my favorite subject:

1DsTc to deliver soon continued.....

but is confused on two points:

- A full color pixel is worth more than a bayer pixel
- File size would not be greater than a bayer 16mp file

Getting straight on sensors v. pixels is important to discuss foveon/full color type chips. Also, I don't think what canon has patented will necessarily indicate their next gen cameras (whenever they are dilivered)

roli_bark wrote:
And I think there will be an update to the venerable 1D :

Look at this:
http://skyblue04.egloos.com/2864840

However, must be treated with a Double Grain-Of-Salt ...

I would bet my house that this is legit and correct. it just makes sense.

This is the 100-400 I have been waiting for. It will probably loose the stupid push pull zoom............great. With IS, I will be one of the first to buy it. I will also be in line for the 10-24mm 2.8L. Then my lens line up will be complete! I will keep my 5D until it to will have 22mp like the new 1Dsmark III. I can't wait!

Peter Reesor wrote:
This is all I need in order to be happy like a pig on a Laguardia runway:

EF 200mm f/2.0L IS USM (MSR $3,799)
EF 400mm f/5.6L IS USM (MSR $1,399)
EF 50mm f/1.2L USM MkII (MSR $1,499)
EOS 3D (1.6 CF, 5D high ISO performance, MkIIN AF system) (MSR $ 2,399)


50 f/1.2 Mk II? we can guarantee that that will not happen! Has the 50 f/1.2 even been out a year yet??

Tentacle wrote:
lisantica wrote:
1DMk3, (renamed 3D). Prediction only.

I'm trying to get my head around the "why". Can you elaborate? When I read 1D, I think "Brick", "Bulletproof", "Über AF" and "Weathersealed." Oh, and "Wannahave!!!" too, but that's beside the point.

The EOS 3 has the 45-point AF system, but it doesn't have the weathersealing. So why would Canon all of a sudden ignore the EOS 1V pedigree and point to a lesser cousin?


Not sure why Canon would do it, but they will (remember, prediction only). I'll happily eat my words. Hope I don't have to, but I might.

One future I will predict with certainty is unhappiness with L lens prices. We will see more doubling of prices, as we saw with the 700-200 f4 IS, when a lens needs major reworking.

EOS20 wrote:

50 f/1.2 Mk II? we can guarantee that that will not happen! Has the 50 f/1.2 even been out a year yet??

Heck, it looks like Canon is struggling to get the MkI production off the ground properly. And therein I think one might find the answer.....the MkII may be introduced "quietly", thru the back door, perhaps similarly to the 24-105 caper.

Hard to say what will happen, but from a business standpoint, Canon really has no choice but to upgrade the 30D to bring it into contention with the D200. Failing that, they would have to do one of two things: either reduce the price on the 1DMKIIN to make it competitive with the D200 or come out with a "mini-1DMKII" at the D200 price point.

Well, it looks like all the stuff predicted is going to be big and heavy anyway. I sure would like to see some of there first AF primes redone(18 years later), with ring USM. I know most everyone else likes the big heavy zooms, but still, I would like to see a 24/2 USM, 35/2 USM an a 50/1.4 or 2.0, with Ring USM and all with internal focusing. An XT size body with 50-3200 ISO, 8000 sec. shutter speed, better AF, more cofortable grip and a 100% viewfinder would be nice as well.

Tentacle wrote:

... So why would Canon all of a sudden ignore the EOS 1V pedigree and point to a lesser cousin?


To compete with the Nikon D200. Canon has nothing to quite match it.

10DFT wrote:
Tentacle wrote:

... So why would Canon all of a sudden ignore the EOS 1V pedigree and point to a lesser cousin?


To compete with the Nikon D200. Canon has nothing to quite match it.

Hang on

You want the 1DIIN successor to compete against the D200? You can get about two (and one-third) D200 body for the price of a 1DIIN body. Those two are not on the same plane, market wise.

Should Canon offer something to compete against the D200? Yes. Should that be the 1DIII? No.

The 40D can give the D200 a run for its money IF Canon pours on enough special sauce, like weathersealing, or maybe the APS-H crop for better DR and high ISO performance. A 40D with APS-H sensor and the pixel density of a 20D/30D would be awesome.

I agree with Rick that Canon has to do something to try and compete with the D200. The question is does it just want to match the D200 in which case they can come out with a 40D that is just a marginal improvement over the 30D. It could have 10 megapixels, slightly better autofocus, dust cleaner, etc. This should be relatively easy for them to pull off, but is more of an effort to just hold their share of the market. If they really want to compete with the D200, they will come out with a APS-H sensor with 10 megapixels and great ISO performance. A huge upgrade to the autofocus, maybe an automatic ISO adjustment mode like the D200, and put it in a 3D size body and keep it less that $1,500. Now that could really compete with the D200. I suspect they will do the former (i.e., come out with a 40D), but I would love to see them do the latter (i.e., a great 3D).

I've been asleep... what is an APS-H sensor?

Nill
~~
www.toulme.net