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 p.1 #24 · D700: Canon breathe sigh of relief. | |
nikt wrote:
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But this time, it's been Canon to breathe a HUGE sigh of relief when the specs of the D700 were released. In fact, the camera is actually seen as 'old hat'.
When you think about it, it does indeed make sense for Nikon to adopt the strategy they did. My reading of what's happening in the market is that if Nikon had announced the D700 after the 5D replacement, the camera would not have had any momentum.
I agree, and for one major reason. The sensor. As clean as the D3/D700 sensor may be regarding ISO, it's fairly low res. The 5d already beats it in resolution/detail, and I think it's clear that Canon can "relatively" easily go to 16.5MP (FF version of the 1D3) with clean - thought slightly lower ISO than Nikon - results. MPs still sell cameras and amateur/pro status means nothing. Look at all the people buying the grossly overpriced 1Ds3's, a camera that offers nothing but MPs over a $3500-$4K 1D3.
It appears that the 5D replacement will not split into two lines. I would actually have preferred to see the 5D stay around and just bring in the new camera into the line. The 5D will be gone, and there will be no real price reductions.
It appears (I use this term loosely) the new camera will not be glossed over upgrade like Canon has been done with the 400/450D and 20D/30D/40D. For Canon to almost laugh at the D700 has me asking how revolutionary will it be. Could it just be Canon trying to keep the faith? My instinct says no.
Could it have 18+ MP, 16 bit processing with full weather proofing? Could it have other technology not yet implemented in a dSLR off-the-shelve today?
I think it will, but again that's my guess. The 5D was released and seen by Canon and it's users as a brand new concept and market; and I think it's replacement will do exactly the same. September can't come around fast enough for Canon. They are rubbing their hands with glee!
Well, for those of us that have nothing more to go by than rumors and past behavior, I do agree with the 'no price reductions" part. 
While I like the optimism, I see no real basis for it yet. Along with that may go a cheap, I'm not saying inexpensive, camera. What can Canon do that won't hurt the 1 series? Nothing really, short of a "sea change" in the market. Canon has never committed patricide in the 3+ decades I've used their gear. Gimmicks aside, the good, solid technology always resides in the top of the line. The OK stuff goes in the other cameras.
If Canon has a new sensor type or vastly improved processing capabilities they may be willing to offer a "little" as in very little, new features for a new camera (5d or whatever) but they won't go overboard and make people ecstatically happy with value. My prediction is that the 1D3 will go to the gallows soon (PMA 09) and may be followed by the 1Ds3 a year'ish later, but until those cameras are well mapped out and Canon has a plan, they won't do anything to hurt their sales IMO.
market segmentation is often key. Canon and Nikon are not competing directly except in a few areas (the extreme low end and the 1d3/D3). The price differential puts the cameras into different purchasing segments. When less fanatical people, compared to those found here, buy cameras, they may say, I'll pay X, but not X + $500 or more (D300 vs. 40d). Canon can still slip a mediocre offering into the line up at $2500 and compete on price. Crummy AF, VF, small buffer, slow FPS, etc. can all be used to beat Nikon on price without fear that all buyers will want the better features. It will still protect the high end, give Canon a new camera, but put many of us to sleep. 
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