Conner999
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 p.2 #19 · Price of Used 1Ds Mk II in 12 Months | |
The 1Ds2 has already taken it's big hit from the 1Ds3, used prices dropped from >$5000 to roughly $3500-4000.
Yes, any successor to the 5D will likely have a smidgen more MP, LV, etc. But the 5D has already had it's impact on the 1Ds2 and any 5DII will (as in Canon's habit) lack the attributes that make a 1 series appealing to some vs a 5D - AF system, weather sealing, clear VF (no AF points etched), no issues with mirror clearance using alternate glass, pro build quality. The MP count has only a modest influence on 1 series buyers.
Anyone who is expecting Canon to make the 5DII a Mini 1Ds2 is smoking some nice stuff. Canon, unlike Nikon, has always had a clear distinction between it's pro and pro-sumer body lines: less 'robust' AF, consumer or backup camera -grade construction, no sealing, etc. Right or wrong, that will continue.
Any 5DII will be a hybrid of the 40D and the current 5D with a couple of extra MP thrown in. Some big questions are also what will they do with the AA filter? How will the AF system perform? How ill they handle NR? There is also the issue of what seems to be their slacking QC - even in the face of Nikon's moves: Lens QC has not gotten better, the 1D3 fiasco is yet fully resolved, complaints of 40D issues, crooked 1Ds3 viewfinders/sensors....
A 16MP weather sealed 5D with an upped AF system/fps for say $2500- $3000 as some dream for would be the kiss of death to 1D3 and 1DS3 sales. You'd also have to GIVE AWAY your used 5D - a lot of which Canon retailers still hold in inventory.
Remember, big market moves like this DREAM 5DII people natter on about would kill retailer relations: existing 5D, 1D3, 1Ds3 inventories would drop in value and sales slump immediately upon announcement of this uber Camera, there would be x dry months as production built-up, pro customers would be furious, margins would be hit as would it as would be selling 1 series value at pro-sumer prices, etc., etc. It is not in Canon's best interests.
While Canon may surprise everyone and knock one out of the park, they have yet to do that and the overwhelming safe bet is the standard Canon evolutionary move.
Yes the 5D was a market-shaker, but once you've stuffed a FF sensor into a 20D body, what do you do for an encore? I've owned the 5D and liked it it, but I'm also realistic as to what it was. Revolutionary noise control (a la the D3)? Nope - 40D and 1Ds3 don't show it.
Those that argue the 1Ds2 will plunge need also to assume that the vale of every camera BELOW the 5DII will also plunge - 5Ds for well under $1000, 30Ds for $400, etc, etc. It's not solely a top-up value comparison. Look at the 1DS3 - it had a BIG impact on the 1Ds2, but little on any cameras below the DS2. Different needs and wants.
In short, I think every body will take a slight hit (couple hundred), but existing 5D prices will be THE biggest casualty as people rush to buy the latest and greatest:
Used 1Ds2 pre 1Ds3 (which people were 'expecting'): $5500.
Used 1Ds2 post 1Ds3 (even though market was expecting it): $3800.
Percentage drop: 31% - say 30%.
Clean used 5D prices today- roughly $1700
After 30% cut: roughly $1200
The compelling 'need' for people to have the latest greatest has a bigger impact on used sales prices than any technology shift.
Edited on Jun 01, 2008 at 08:46 AM
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it cost only $4.00 for 350 miles
It's all about your commitment to take a good shot.
" sales well north of $4k, the average for the 20 lowest is $3563. Predicting a camera like this to sell north of $3k in a years time is not a bet I'd take......