'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

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Josef Isayo
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p.6 #1 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

I don't believe Canon will update the 30D anytime soon but they will introduce a camera above the 30D and below the 5D that would compete with the Nikon D200 much better than the current camera. Think about it.

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 04:00 AM

EOS20
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p.6 #2 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

danmitchell wrote:

It wouldn't surpise me if before long (though maybe not PMA) Canon decided to move the current 30D segment to full frame. In other words, rather than upgrading to a 40D that isn't much different from the competition, they could leapfrog the competition in this segment with a reasonably prices full frame body. It would cost more than the 30D, but not much more than the inflation adjusted price in this category

Isen't the 5D pritty much a 20D/30D with a full frame sensor and no built in flash!?

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 04:08 AM

Hrow
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p.6 #3 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Josef Isayo wrote:
I don't believe Canon will update the 30D anytime soon but they will introduce a camera above the 30D and below the 5D that would compete with the Nikon D200 much better than the current camera. Think about it.

Sincerely hope you are right. This is the camera that I have been waiting for.

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 04:08 AM

danmitchell
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p.6 #4 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

I write: "It wouldn't surpise me if before long (though maybe not PMA) Canon decided to move the current 30D segment to full frame. In other words, rather than upgrading to a 40D that isn't much different from the competition, they could leapfrog the competition in this segment with a reasonably prices full frame body. It would cost more than the 30D, but not much more than the inflation adjusted price in this category"

And ESO20 asked: "Isen't the 5D pritty much a 20D/30D with a full frame sensor and no built in flash!?"

Yup. :-)

My wild speculation and raving depends upon changes at other places in the lineup as well. Using current model numbers but imagining the replacement cameras might have different names:

350XT --> 400D

30D --> 5D (but really some new model with similar specs - e.g. 12 PM)

5D --> 3D/5DII (or whatever people have called it in their speculation :-)

1-Series --> Good guess. I happen to subscribe to the 22MP theory, but I'm not sure about the higher frame rate model.

I share the doubts of many who can't see all of this happening at PMA. I'm thinking about a longer term change.

Dan

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 04:20 AM

DmitriM
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p.6 #5 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

They won't make 40D a full frame for quite a while. They didn't introduce 17-55 IS a year ago to die make it obsolete.Not to mention,that a lot of people do prefer 1.6 crop.

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 07:19 AM

EB-1
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p.6 #6 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

DmitriM wrote:
Not to mention,that a lot of people do prefer 1.6 crop.

Yes, like me.

EB

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 07:49 AM

Tentacle
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p.6 #7 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

DmitriM wrote:
They won't make 40D a full frame for quite a while. They didn't introduce 17-55 IS a year ago to die make it obsolete. Not to mention, that a lot of people do prefer 1.6 crop.

Canon is between a rock and a hard place. They want to move to full frame for anything except entry level. That makes sense, because they know they can't crank up pixel densities forever without hitting some serious limits. But the average consumer happily sits in APS-C Lala Land and doesn't care about future limits. So, Canon will have to force FF on consumers eventually. That will push back EF-S to the entry level market.

Either way, it takes a hit. From my perspective, the hit taken from not pushing full frame seems worse than the hit taken from EF-S sales if full frame is pushed. There is plenty of room in the entry level for the EF-S line-up to make a decent return of investment, because even the most expensive EF-S, the praised 17-55 IS, doesn't really break the bank. An EF 24-105L or 24-70L costs more.

I don't think the 40D will go full frame. If Canon plays it (too) safe it will stay with APS-C and get mauled by the D200, K10D, D80 and the D200 successor. If Canon moves the 40D to 1.3x crop it will strike two birds with one stone: It will beat all competition because it will have a lower pixel density and thus better IQ and it will push EOS users towards full frame. While at the same time not take the big price penalty that comes with full frame sensor production. APS-H (1.3x crop) is a sweet spot, cost-wise.

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 08:01 AM

EOS20
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p.6 #8 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

I rekon Canon will eventually add new lines to there digital range and follow a similar lineup as they use to have in the film days.

My predictions for the future digital lineup:

*EOS 3000D - Entry level APS-C to compeate against Nikon D40
*EOS 400D/500D - A mid range entry level model
*EOS 40D/50D - A Premium APS-C camera
*EOS 6D/7D - Entry/Mid range Full frame model
*EOS 3D - Premium semi pro full frame. Or APS-H sensor (If Canon continues with APS-H).
*EOS 1Ds/1D2n merge into one camera - Flagship pro full frame camera

I would also like to see a pellicle mirror 1D for sports/action shooters with 10-12 f/ps shutter and huge RAW Buffer and high speed crop mode and good high ISO performance!

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 08:18 AM

Geoff Costello
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p.6 #9 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Hi,

I posted on this topic in August 2007 way back in the old Photokina Rumour thread. My ‘source” has just come back from one of his regular business trips to Japan (days ago) where he again met his old colleague buddy now involved in DSLR marketing at Canon at their favourite Sushi bar…

Summarising the previous post Canon was going to replace all their DSLR range in 2007 except for the 400D. There would be:

30D Replacement (40D?) with
• Anti-dust
• 5D like AF
• 10.2mp 4 channel sensor (though they were testing a 12 mp one)
• Still 1.6 crop for those EF-S lenses
• DIGIC III and sensor changes to give better high ISO and lower noise (especially at 1600 and 3200 ISO)
• Very similar appearance to 30D

5D would be split into FF two lines to create full frame demand
• Low end – similar to current 12 Mp sensor but with a more 30D like body (could be a 7D?) and DIGIC III. This low end and xxD series were meant to provide a more cost effective choice between 1.6 and FF for the advance amateur and allow a gradual migration to more full frame over time driven by the market.
• High end with more MP (16mp but not the 1D sensor), improved AF for the full frame, DIGIC III etc. (could be a 3D?)

The 1 Series was being replaced as well
• Canon were very excited by this replacement
• A different division markets these to the normal DSLRs so details were more sketchy (DIGIC III and much better ISO and dynamic range mentioned)
• There had been some late changes which back then (August 2006) were risking the 1 series not making Photokina.
• Canon were working on two new 1 series abut would probably only release one of them for now.

History shows that the 1 series replacment was not announced at Photokina. So that leaves a lot of cameras for 2007

Anyway, according to my “source” this is all still true and Canon is ready to produce these cameras (technology finalised). Indeed 1 series samples are apparently out there (Jeff / Fred?). But the 1 series delay has meant that they need to select what to announce at the PMA – they don’t want to announce all 4 cameras as the dealer channels would complain (too much change / obsolete product at once.) Canon’s thinking (as far as my sources contact was ‘on the inside” was to announce 2 cameras at PMA and 2 later in the year.

This is where it gets interesting - the dilemma for Canon here is:

• The 1 series should be announced first for pride / reputation with the new features
• Even though the 1 series sells in very limited quantities, the professional camera division in Canon has a lot of clout - seen as creating a brand image leadership in the whole camera space.
• The 30D replacement is badly required as the 20D/30D’s combined market share has dropped radically over the last few months due to a combination of internal competition from the 400D and the market impact of the Nikon D80 and Sony A100 etc.
• The 30D series segment is seen as important to Canon because of lens on-sell. This market and upwards tends to buy extra lenses, including high value lenses (I interpret that to be “high profit”).
• The two 5D replacements make the most sense if sold together. Though they could announce the high end one first (as a 5D replacment) and then follow with the low end (entry level FF). The low end 5D repalcement is thought too similar to the 5D to be released while the 5D is in the market.
• The 5D has not sold as well as hoped in most markets except when rebates are offered. However Canon still sell lots more of them that the 1 series and they are nicely profitable. They also have excellent resell on high value lenses.
• The combination of Nikon's aggressive D40 / D80 / D200 range, with the Sony A100 is taking more DSLR market share than Canon predicted. The 400D is selling very well but Canon know they need to regain more of the midrange DLR market quickly to maintain the lens sales and ‘own’ the system for the advanced amateur and semi-pro etc.
• Sony is known to be working on CMOS sensors at 1.6 and FF for their DSLR range and are expected to continue to complete aggressively on features. (Interesting to see what this does for Nikon who currently buy their CCD sensor from Sony) (Also interesting to see no mention of Pentax, which seems stange..).
• Hence the big dilemma – 30D replacement and 1 series replacement now or 30D and one of the 5D replacements now and leave the other 5D and 1 series for later. Or do they upset their channels (never a good idea) and issue 3 cammeras to give the market at knockout puch. In terms of revenue and immediate market share protection delaying the 1 series further makes sense. But the new high end 5D replacement to very close to the 1 series performance (16mp etc), and in terms of prestige, the 1 series should be the best… (Note, no mention of delaying the 30D replacement so I guess that is a given?)

Apparently the internal discussions at Canon have been “very vigorous”. As far as my “source’s” contact was concerned it was 99% likely to be the 1 series and 30D replacement for PMA, the 5D replacements being left to later this year and potentially even split into 2 years.

Anyway – still a grain of salt needed – these are Sushi and Saki conversations in Japan and my “source’s” colleague buddy may be boasting / trying to impress etc… But it makes some sense..

Interesting that there is no mention of a Nikon D40 competitor… Maybe too soon for Canon to react…. Regardless it would seem that the free market is working with Nikon and Sony likely to force a faster pace out of Canon than we have had over the last few years where they have dominated the DSLR market. This can only be good!

More fuel for the fire…

(Oh and after Photokina I bought a new 5D as I felt that 6+ months of great photos with a fantastic camera was better than waiting and waiting for rumours and promises. And I haven’t regretted this for 1 second! After whatever actually is announced and released comes on sale the 5D will be just as good…)

Geoff

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 08:29 AM

dturina
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p.6 #10 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Hello Geoff,
the rumor seems plausible, but for me the 5d works well enough to completely ignore the future developments and just use it as a permanent, instead of just temporary solution. It's the first time I feel comfortable with that since starting to shoot digital. In a sense, I think "we have arrived", the technology is good enough and now it's more-less about packaging it in different shapes, sizes and colors, as with 35mm film cameras.

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 09:52 AM

Geoff Costello
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p.6 #11 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Hi,

I 100% agree re the 5D. I love my 5D and the pictures I take with it are just natural extensions of my desires (like 35mm film was many years ago). It also lead me down an expensive, but rewarding path of L series lenses - as I can now really see the extra "value" these lenses deliver and I like them at the (again 35mm comfortaable) focal lengths...So in many ways I don't care anymore about the rumours... Since I have no intention of upgrading the 5D for many years. For me to upgrade the 5D I'd need 2 stops equivalent better high ISO (as 99% of my photography is under available light) and the 5D is already outstanding in this area - having exceeded my expecations. I am happily expecintg the 5D to be a keeper for 5 years (I'd say 10 but the way I am taking pictures with it I'll hit the 100,000 shutter actualtions well before then! I do want / need a second body though could be tempted by the 40D or 50D or whatever if it gets a step up in image quality to approach (or even beat) the 5D. It would give me some extra reach for sports etc. Otherwise one of the 5D replacements for me...

But, more than anything, I do hope Canon are (as the rumour would sujest is starting to happen) prompted to respond agressively with new product etc this year and for the forseable future, as I want to remain having bought into a winning system for the next 10-20 years that my lenses last (and I love thoses lenses too) and be able to upgrade bodies every few years to remain contempory as technology delivers a real jump in image visible performance in FF cameras.

Geoff

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 10:14 AM

thw2
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p.6 #12 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Probably the most credible rumor I've heard so far.

Terribly boring and predictable, but totally expected.

Let's see what Canon puts in the 1-series and 30D replacement. All thanks to Nikon and Sony.

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 12:29 PM

Gib Robinson
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p.6 #13 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Geoff,

No mention of a 1.3x sensor in the 1 series. Does that mean Canon will not produce a follow-on to the 1D Mk II?

--Gib

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 12:31 PM

Gib Robinson
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p.6 #14 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

I've been shooting with a borrowed 5D which is a much more solid camera than my 20D but the images don't have the clarity or vividness of my Leica DMR images. Some of that is the result of very high quality glass but there is considerable room for improvement in sensor design and software. I'm hoping Canon is up to the challenge. I suspect they want their flagship camera to be regarded as the best 35mm in the world. Period. I hope it will be.

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 12:37 PM

Yakim Peled
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p.6 #15 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

It has just occurred to me. Do you think the new DSLRs will finally outresolve film?

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 12:52 PM

Geoff Costello
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p.6 #16 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Gib Robinson wrote:
No mention of a 1.3x sensor in the 1 series. Does that mean Canon will not produce a follow-on to the 1D Mk II?
I noticed that too. Perhaps thats one of the two 1 series Canon were working on, with FF released first and the 1.3 crop sports for later? Unless they were experimenting with a combined FF and 1.3 crop, keeping the 1.3 crop as a backup in case the combined sensor techmoogy didn't work. But this seems unlikely given the current big price differential between the 1D and 1Ds - you'ld have the 1D owners up in arms if they had to pay 1Ds prices... If the "source" is correct we should know in 6 weeks or so...

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 01:05 PM

Geoff Costello
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p.6 #17 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Yakim Peled wrote:
It has just occurred to me. Do you think the new DSLRs will finally outresolve film?

Canons Full Frame "White paper" claims they do already (preumably the 1Ds). Certainly my 5D beats most film now to my eyes except the 50 or 100 ISO very high quality stock you need to keep refrigrated. So I would guess a new 1 series FF sensor at (say) the often separately rumoured 22mp (or whatever) would be even better.

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 01:09 PM

Yakim Peled
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p.6 #18 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Pixel Perfect wrote:
It must be worrying for Canon how consistently reviews are placing the 400D/30D behind the D80/D200 even in the area of IQ only above ISO 800 do the Canons pull ahead. Given the sales figures too, I expect a 12 month cycle for the 30D as it really is a 2 year cycle given the 30D was really a point release for the 20D. But only 10.2MP IMO, Canon won't be able to deliver 12MP in a 1.6x crop and maintain it's lead in the noise stakes and DR will suffer too.

40D and 1D III @ PMA, 5D II and 1Ds III in September.

EF-S 18-200 f/3.5-5.6 IS
16-50 f/2.8L IS
EF-S 8mm fisheye

16-50 f/2.8L IS? Shame on you Whayne. You have just made me wet myself...

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 01:12 PM

Gerry Szarek
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p.6 #19 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Well, my 2 cents worth, we get a really cheap entry 1.6 DSLR priced at $300, horrible interface but CHEAP at 6Mp, the high end version goes to 10Mp for $900. The 5D gets split to 2 cameras, a cheaper version of the current one down at $1500 or so, smaller buffer, lower frame rate this kills the 30D. The second version of the 5D gets a real 45 pt AF, 5 fps, 30 shot buffer, and for a mere cost of $2500. The 1DmkII becomes a 10fps, full frame 10MP or so. The 1Ds goes to 25 MP.

I also predict that Nikon releases are really cheap DSLR at $300, ditto Pentax and Sony.

Gerry

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 01:13 PM

tootalew
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p.6 #20 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

I would hope they announce that they have teamed up with Zeiss and we can all get some AF CZ's on our cameras

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 02:01 PM

Steve Spencer
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p.6 #21 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Given Geoff's comments and the need to be competitive let me suggest the following guesses about what cameras Canon may role out and when:

2007 PMA:
1DMKIII - at least 12 megapixel APS-H, 10 frames per second, bigger buffer, much better battery, Digic III lots of small improvements.
40D - 10 megapixel APS-C, at least 15 point autofocus with better spot metering, bigger buffer, Digic III, anti-dust, etc.
5D price cut to about $2,300 or $2,400

June, 2007 (maybe a low level consumer DSLR to be better than D40 and anything Sony offers)

Fall 2007:
1DSMKIII - 22 megapixel full frame, 7 frames per second, huge buffer, Digic III, much better battery, lots of small improvements.
New body (maybe 3D?) - better body build but still smaller form factor than ID (partial weather sealing?) 10 megapixel APS-H, 7 frames per second, 20 to 25 point autofocus, excellent spot metering, big buffer, Digic III. Price: $1,600. It will be positioned to be clearly better than the D200 (and hopefully its successor)

2008 PMA:

5DII - 16 megapixel full frame, 5 frames per second, bigger buffer, Digic III - price still Drops to $2,000 to $2,200

June 2008 - likely a 450D and exactly configuration is likely to be highly dependent on competition

2008 Photokina -

50D - at least 10 megapixel APH-S, 5 frames per second, slightly better autofocus, and other small improvements

November - likely a revision of ultra low cost consumer camera if Canon decides to compete in this market

2009 PMA -

3D (mkII?) - 16 megapixel full frame, 7 frames per second, Digic IV?, other stuff not yet thought about. 5D is phased out

1D MkIV - fovean sensor? - really hard to predict here

Fall 2009

1Ds MkIV - fovean sensor? maybe 22 megapixel full frame? - who knows

2010 PMA

60D becomes full frame

Of course this gets sketchy as it gets further out, but the basic premise is that Canon will have 2 consumer, 2 prosumer, and 2 pro cameras. At the consumer and prosumer level they will try to position them so that they have a model that is cheaper than their competitors (typically by $200 to $250) that they can credibly argue is equivalent to the higher priced competition, and that they will have a model that is $200 to $250 more than the competition that they can credibly argue is considerably better than the slightly lower priced competition. The pro cameras also need to stay well ahead of the prosumer cameras. These principles seem likely to drive any reasonable upgrade path.

Edit: sorry I had the dates all screwed up.

Edited by Steve Spencer on Jan 17, 2007 at 11:39 AM GMT

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 04:01 PM

johnastovall
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p.6 #22 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

I seem to have missed the 22mp Canon at the Photokina 2006 LAST FALL.

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 04:16 PM

wtlloyd
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p.6 #23 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Better take a look at your post, Steve.

And, I believe Photokina is held once every two years. The next photokina Cologne – World of Imaging – will take place from Tuesday, September 23 to Sunday, September 28, 2008.

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 04:26 PM

Roy NN7DX
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p.6 #24 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Isn't it about time for a pro version of the 1.6x crop camera?

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 04:33 PM

Philippe Arnez
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p.6 #25 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

I've also seem to have missed some stuff last year

But as long as the 5DII comes like described at PMA 2007, I'm happy

Edited on Feb 26, 2007 at 06:15 PM

Jan 17, 2007 at 04:37 PM


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