danmitchell
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 p.16 #24 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread | |
An exchange from an earlier post:
First: "is it just me? or does it seem like if Canon were to put out a 30D replacement that was 10.1 MP, then Canon would no longer be excelling, but just following the lead of other companies?"
Reply: "How? Didn't they just do exactly that with the 400D (Rebel XTi)?"
I think the point is valid. During the 20D/30D/350D period Canon surpassed everyone else on an MP basis. (We could argue about how important the MP count is or is not, but let's not go there...:-) Canon sold 8MP cameras while everyone else was selling 6 MP bodies.
All of a sudden, Canon found its camera being equalled or exceeded in this area. Their bodies were at 8MP while essentially all of the competitors were coming out with 10MP crop sensor bodies. Canon went from being the leader in this regard to being a follower, almost overnight.
The 400D is a fine camera, but one could argue that it no longer surpasses the competition in the way that the 350D and 300D did when they came out.
The 30D and its replacement (should there be one) might be even more problematic for Canon. Yes, the 30D is a fine crop sensor camera body. However, it no longer surpasses all of the competitors in the way that it (and the 10D and the 20D) did in this category in the past. It still sits at 8MP while the competition has moved on to 10MP, and it doesn't have additional features (whose value we could debate, but again, let's not) like dust reduction, etc. In fact, there are quite a few people who feel that Canon's own 400D beats the 30D in certain areas and for certain types of use.
The sort of 30D replacement (OK, I'll call it the "40D") that we might expect would certainly be a nice solid camera: 10MP, dust reduction, larger display, and all the rest. However, it would no longer be a product that was unqeuivocally ahead of the competition in the way that the 20D and perhaps the 30D were. It becomes harder and harder for Canon (or any other company) to produce a crop sensor body that stands out from the competition. (Again, the significance of the differences between the 400D and such a "40D" are going to be seen as less significant than they might have been in the past.)
I still feel that some reorganization of the product line might be coming. If so, while we are unlikely to see a wholesale introduction of all new cameras this spring, I'd bet that Canon sees a path forward and new introductions might be seen in light of such changes.
I'm still of the opinion that the only way for Canon to retain strong differentiation between its products in the 30D segment and those of the competition is to move that model level to full frame before too long. For some time I have felt that it would be possible and desirable for Canon to push a 5D-like 12MP full frame body into a price range where it could appeal to current 30D buyers.To my way of thinking, the initial price should be within a few hundred dollars of the inflation adjusted original list price of, say, the 20D. (Upgrading the 400D may have helped make this possible.) In addition, this would permit the introduction of a more capable (sealed, etc.) 16 MP body at about the original price of the 5D - though this probaby can't happen before the 1-series bodies are updatd.
I use a 350D (and L lenses). I would not bother upgrading to a 30D, a 400D, nor to a 10MP 40D. I would upgrade - and quickly - to a less expensive 12MP full frame body or to the 16MP full frame body I described above.
Dan
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