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Archive 2007 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

nikt
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p.119 #1 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Johnny Blood wrote:
Do you mean to have the 5D replace the so-called 40D?

I don't think that will result in 30% more sales at all. The prosumer market is a 1.6 crop factor market. I would think (for strictly marketing reasons), Canon needs a 1.6x camera to compliment the XTi. That's what the 20D was and that's what made it so popular. It was a reasonable upgrade at a reasonable price. The 5D, to me, is a completely different camera.

Give the consumers a camera to compete with the D200 on the same playing field, which autmoatically differentiates the D200 from the 5D,...Show more →

No no, absolutely not. The 40D exactly like you said, a 1.6x camera. Just in a better body is what I was getting at.

Feb 18, 2007 at 09:53 AM

M Martin
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p.119 #2 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Like all of you I've been glued to this site since the first post. I just sold my 20D
and want to jump up to a 1DmkIIn upgrade. Talk about a roller coaster of emotions. Will the upgrade be released at PMA or fall seems to change with each new page. Needless to say 10 MP is a surprise/disapointment. I want the camera that can be used for sports and portrait photography and at the $3,500 to $4,000 dollar price range don't see why Canon couldn't fill that void!!!

Feb 18, 2007 at 09:54 AM

Johnny Blood
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p.119 #3 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Gotcha...same page then.

But will we see it? If what I'm seeing online from seemingly credible sources is accurate, we will all be very, very disappointed next week.

Feb 18, 2007 at 09:55 AM

caleb condit
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p.119 #4 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

to compete with a d200, in my mind, it would also need to have the built in flash transmitter for use with speedlights. I would like to see this in all of canons $1200+ cameras, or at least in the 1 series and 5d. It's such an obvious upgrade that canon doesn't do for the sake of losing out on accessories sales, but its something that would be really helpful for people wanting a nice transportable flash system, ala strobist. Even better would be a flash systerm based on radio slaves instead of infared. Imagine something along the lines of Pocket Wizard simplicity of 4-10 channels. Im sure a lack of antenna might limit distances, but would be very useful.

Feb 18, 2007 at 09:58 AM

nikt
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p.119 #5 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

I don't think you'll be disappointed , there'll be something to fit. Only whether its PMA or Q3 '07 is the wait and see.

Feb 18, 2007 at 10:00 AM

nikt
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p.119 #6 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

I think If the 40D would be spec'd like Johnny, I and numerous others have said, I think this will be a much better canidate as the D200 competitor than the 30D ever was. I think it would be unlikely that at this stage Canon sees the need to implement the same flash system as Nikon. Possible, but probably unlikely.

Feb 18, 2007 at 10:05 AM

Johnny Blood
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p.119 #7 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Well, if Canon waits until 3Q-2007 (or later) to unveil a replacement for the 30D and a direct competitor to the D200, it will prove that the 30D was NOT a stop-gap camera and they truly were caught with their pants down when the D200 came out, which leads me to believe they may be caught with their pants down again at PMA (i.e. Nikon unveils a new full-frame camera).

Look at us; we're talking about a camera to compete directly with the D200 instead of something that wills surpass and marginalize it. Nikon must be licking their chops.

Feb 18, 2007 at 10:10 AM

EB-1
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p.119 #8 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Adding 2 mp will not do anything for the crummy viewfinder and AF of the 30D successor. Even the D80 has a much better viewfinder and AF zones. If anything, the "40D" will probably be priced downmarket. Thre have been no indications yet that Canon cares about the high-res photosites for serious photographers.

EB

Feb 18, 2007 at 10:10 AM

nikt
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p.119 #9 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

EB, true. If the 40D ends up in a small '1Dn' type body (the mini 1Dn), I think this is going to be the real step forward, as I've mentioned before. What the D200 is to the D2x/D2h. That , I think, is where the best target market to aim for is.

Feb 18, 2007 at 10:17 AM

nikt
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p.119 #10 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

I don't think Nikon will come out with a full-frame camera come PMA. Could be wrong of course.

Nikon simply hit a home run with the D200. No-one saw it coming and then surpassed everyone's expectations in sales.Canon weren't prepared, but then again nor was Nikon. The market shifted signficantly. Good stuff I reckon. Doesn't that just put a fire cracker up all the manufacturers' ass'.

Feb 18, 2007 at 10:22 AM

Tentacle
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p.119 #11 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Oh, and all this talk about resolution and framerates got me to speculate on the subject some more...

What is known from various documentation is that Canon makes sensors with different numbers of output channels. The sensor itself also houses the AD converters. This is a bit of a strech but it doesn't really matter for the rest of the educated guesswork that is about to follow.

The next step in the data path is front-end processing circuit. This is a separate chip, by the look of the DIGIC II PCB shown here: http://www.canon.com/technology/canon_tech/explanation/digic_slr.html

Next comes DIGIC, buffer is "to the side" and the end of the chain is the card storage.

Now, here's the numbers bit... A 10D would do 3 FPS with a sensor that has 2 channel read-out. The current 400D has a sensor with a 2 channel output which cranks out 3 frames per second. 6.3 MPixel vs 10.1 Mpixel means that the sensor read-out speed has increased by 60%.

This is a wild guess on my part, but if a 60% increase in pixel throughput is realistic, then this means that it's realistic to assume that 8 FPS can be achieved for 12.8 mpixel. (Yes, even though a 1DMk II (N) and 1Ds Mk II sensor uses an 8-channel output, not 2 or 4. The same relative increase applies.)

Feb 18, 2007 at 10:27 AM

lordcarl
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p.119 #12 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Johnny Blood wrote:
Well, if Canon waits until 3Q-2007 (or later) to unveil a replacement for the 30D and a direct competitor to the D200, it will prove that the 30D was NOT a stop-gap camera and they truly were caught with their pants down when the D200 came out, which leads me to believe they may be caught with their pants down again at PMA (i.e. Nikon unveils a new full-frame camera).

Look at us; we're talking about a camera to compete directly with the D200 instead of something that wills surpass and marginalize it. Nikon must be licking their chops.

Canon had expected the D200 even before Nikon announced it. It was overdue anyway. The 30D could have been made a 10MP camera but Canon didn't do it as this would put the brakes on the D200's sales.

Remember the D2H? 4.15MP, 8 fps, announced in Fall of 2003, available early Jan 2004. Was a worthy challenger to Canon's original 1D but the company upped the ante and announced the EOS-1D MK II on January 29, 2004. Whatever gains made by the D2H went south the moment the 1D MK II was unveiled.

A 10MP 30D would do the same to the D200's existence in the marketplace. If the Japan Camera Inspection Council didn't request Canon to slow down for 2006, it would have make it practically impossible for the rivals to compete on equal footing and recoup their investments in DSLR technology - no point making newer cameras if a newly-launched version is set to gather dust on the shelves the moment it is shipped.

Feb 18, 2007 at 10:58 AM

Hrow
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p.119 #13 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Just an observation... Interestingly, there seems to be very little discussion on the Nikon Forums as to what Nikon will do at PMA. In fact, most of the concern about Nikon seems to be from Canon users. On the other hand, from glancing at the various forums, it doesn't appear that Nikon users give a rat's ass about what Canon does or does not release at PMA.

Just something to ponder as we near 300 pages of knowledgeless banter. On the plus side, a whole new generation of Canonites have been introduced to the wonders of pookas and we have all benefited by having our knowledge base on Saturn expanded.

Feb 18, 2007 at 10:58 AM

Paul Schmidt
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p.119 #14 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

nikt wrote:
The 40D needs to go into a 1D type body without grip (optional extras of course), and lose the consumer modes. It needs to aim at the 'second body' market of the 1D shooters. Otherwise, yep, everything you said, even at 10MP.

No matter what folks around here want, Canon will bring to market, what they think they need to sell cameras. The 350D and 400D compete directly with Nikons D40 and D50, no real need to do anything there. There is no FF sensor camera by anyone else, so the 5D, 1D and 1Ds can stay as they are. The problem in the bunch is the middle, the 30D is now getting old, and is falling behind, so I expect a 40D, which will be the sensor from the 400D with anti-shake, the DIGIC II processor, and some extra features, mostly implemented in firmware, possibly some weather sealing, so you have a new camera for the middle range, without breaking the bank.

One option is to add a 4D, this would essentially be a 5D, but redesigned to be cheaper to build, possibly using the electronics from the 40D, but the existing sensor, frame and mirror box, and a new body shell made of plastic bits.
Then the progression becomes 400D, 40D, 4D, 5D, 1D, 1Ds.

Feb 18, 2007 at 10:59 AM

Monito
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p.119 #15 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Quote: "Well, if Canon waits until 3Q-2007 (or later) to unveil a replacement for the 30D and a direct competitor to the D200, it will prove that the 30D was NOT a stop-gap camera and they truly were caught with their pants down when the D200 came out, which leads me to believe they may be caught with their pants down again at PMA (i.e. Nikon unveils a new full-frame camera). Look at us; we're talking about a camera to compete directly with the D200 instead of something that wills surpass and marginalize it. Nikon must be licking their chops."

Too much handwringing in this thread. Too much over-reading of fragmentary sales figures. Too much short term thinking. Canon is not especially worried about one quarter or even two. They are thinking two years and ten years ahead.

Canon doesn't owe you (collectively) anything. You bought your camera and either you are happy with it or you are not. If you are wise, then in the first case you sold it and bought something else or in the second case you are making pictures. After Feb. 22, your camera will not make pictures any worse or any better.

Canon could skip PMA and just show printers there and drive a few zealots bonkers. Then put the hammer down in August and recapture any small amount of market share lost and then some again. Canon doesn't think small. They didn't get to where they are now by thinking small.

If Canon announces no new DSLRs or only minor incremental changes on Feb. 22, there will be some nitwits who will sell up their systems, perhaps for the second or third time, only to be completely bamboozled six months later. There would be loud howls in the forums and the wastes of Cyberia would echo with the anguished cries of lonely early adopters with nothing to adopt.

If Canon announces revolutionary changes to their camera lineup on Feb. 22, there will be some nitwits who will sell up their systems, perhaps for the second or third time, only to be proven wrong before long, just like EOS rejecters where soon proven wrong after 1987. There would be loud howls in the forums and the wastes of Cyberia would echo with the anguished cries of isolated loyalists feeling abandoned.

I expect exciting developments from Canon about DSLRs this year. The year will still be young Feb. 23. But if Canon announced nothing new all year, I would be only minorly disappointed. Many of you, or for all I care, most of you may have maxed out a complete Canon collection. For myself, I have a small fraction of what is currently available and I am still the limiting factor.

Feb 18, 2007 at 11:14 AM

danmitchell
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p.119 #16 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

"The 45 point system is 9 years old!"

Yeah, and how about the use of a single lens reflex system? :-)

Do you mean to have the 5D replace the so-called 40D?

I don't think that will result in 30% more sales at all. The prosumer market is a 1.6 crop factor market. I would think (for strictly marketing reasons), Canon needs a 1.6x camera to compliment the XTi. That's what the 20D was and that's what made it so popular. It was a reasonable upgrade at a reasonable price. The 5D, to me, is a completely different camera.

There is a way that could happen. As we know, the 400D is much more capable than the 300D/350D bodies that preceded it. Some argue (I'm one of them) that many buyers of a 30D class camera would actually be better served by the 400D - in any case, what differences there are a less and less significant, with the result that the 30D is having a hard time differentiating itself.

A strategy could be to allow the cost of a 12MP full frame 30D-like body to drop into the sub-$2000 range where it would be more attractive to buyers who had chosen the 30D in the past. Those who don't find this to be a worthwhile value could instead purchase a 400D. (I suspect that many of these buyers could be those who get a 30D not because they really need it but because it is "suppsed to be good.") Canon could even introduce a lower-priced (350?) body.

The result would be that rather than adjusting current models at the price points, they would realign their models, still covering all market segments and perhaps becoming a bit more attractive at the low end, where they could also compete better against the lowest price alternatives. (And this is where they sell the most cameras.)

Will this happen? I have no clue.

Edited by danmitchell on Feb 18, 2007 at 08:36 AM GMT

Feb 18, 2007 at 11:18 AM

lordcarl
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p.119 #17 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Hrow wrote:
Just an observation... Interestingly, there seems to be very little discussion on the Nikon Forums as to what Nikon will do at PMA. In fact, most of the concern about Nikon seems to be from Canon users. On the other hand, from glancing at the various forums, it doesn't appear that Nikon users give a rat's ass about what Canon does or does not release at PMA.

Just something to ponder as we near 300 pages of knowledgeless banter. On the plus side, a whole new generation of Canonites have been introduced to the wonders of pookas and we have...Show more →

That's because Nikon is less predictable than Canon in introducing new models to the market.

Since Canon introduced the original 1D, there seems to be at least 2 new EOS cameras being introduced every year, one during Spring and the other during Fall. And the proven 18-month cycle for the entry-level and midrange EOS DSLRs has made Canon users looking forward to each period with excitement. The 1Ds and 1Ds MK II has a 24-month gap between them, and so it was natural for many to believe that a replacement for 1Ds MK II was due for last Sept's Photokina show. Only thing was, Canon decided to play the unpredictable route for a change.

Nikon users have more or less given up hope on an FF Nikon to surface. They will not be expecting any FF Nikon until Sony, Fujifilm or Kodak introduce a new CMOS, Super CCD or CCD-type 35mm sensor. Neither are they expecting a D3H to surface anytime now. Most will be expecting a D200s if any, going by Nikon's preference to have an updated version within 15 months of release.

Feb 18, 2007 at 11:19 AM

Johnny Blood
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p.119 #18 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

lordcarl wrote:
If the Japan Camera Inspection Council didn't request Canon to slow down for 2006, it would have make it practically impossible for the rivals to compete on equal footing and recoup their investments in DSLR technology - no point making newer cameras if a newly-launched version is set to gather dust on the shelves the moment it is shipped.

I don't presume to understand the Japanese economy or politics, but I still find it hard to believe that anyone in Japan has the authority or clout to tell Canon (or any other company for that matter) how to run their business. In today's ultra competetive business climate (especially at the level of Canon and Nikon), one trip and you will be an also-ran and looking up at the hind quarters of your competition for a long time to come. And if true, why would Canon agree to this? It impacts its bottom line and hinders stock growth. In a free market, wouldn't Canon's investors be pissed?

I think this is more of an excuse for Canon's failure to stay on top. Again, if true, Canon will be seen as treading water and barely keeping pace with Nikon. Arguably, it could also be said that Nikon has re-taken the lead.

Edited by Johnny Blood on Feb 18, 2007 at 04:50 PM GMT

Feb 18, 2007 at 11:43 AM

Hammerli
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p.119 #19 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

Hrow wrote:
Just an observation... Interestingly, there seems to be very little discussion on the Nikon Forums as to what Nikon will do at PMA. In fact, most of the concern about Nikon seems to be from Canon users. On the other hand, from glancing at the various forums, it doesn't appear that Nikon users give a rat's ass about what Canon does or does not release at PMA.

lordcarl wrote:
That's because Nikon is less predictable than Canon in introducing new models to the market.

Nikon's current problem seems to be keeping up with the huge increase in demand they must not have expected. My local camera shop has about 1/4 the number of Nikon lenses on display as usual and they told me that most of those were the extent of their Nikon stock. They've had a lot of usually stock items on back order for as long as 6 months. If I was starting today with nothing, I'd have a tough time choosing a system with how far some of the other companies have come in relation to Canon.

I see there is a very interesting post over on DPR that has probably already been mentioned here, but the OP has been very precise about previous releases, so I'm putting some stock in his post. He states the new 1DIII is 10MP, 10FPS and 1.3 crop.

Feb 18, 2007 at 11:46 AM

Stefan
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p.119 #20 · 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread

I`d like to see something better than the 9 years old 45 point AF. Any chance, lordcarl?
Stefan

Feb 18, 2007 at 11:51 AM

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