dcmiller wrote:
They need to sell stuff to make money. The current 1 series is very well made and most are probably no where near 1/2 useful life. If they don't give people a reason to move up, there's little demand to replace. And as been said several times - who's going to be buying a 1DsII now? Since last summer sales have probably been low. When big erwin is released, I'll buy that. If a MF camera above Big Erwin is released I'll buy that too. (What would be a good Asian name - Super Lucky Biggest Erwin?). But they don't get my money until they deliver. I'm sure I'm one of many, many people waiting to write a check....Show more →
I remember two years ago when I was buying my 1Ds II people were telling me wait! Don't buy it! Hold off because Canon will be releasing the new 1Ds III at the next trade show. Man am I glad I didn't wait for that one.
Really the difference between 16MP and 22MP is very small. Rather than just upgrade the MP count which they could have probably done a couple of years ago I think they were right to wait until they could really come out with a whole package of new improvements which I hope we'll get in the next 1Ds series replacement.
In the meantime you can't beat the deal on the used 1Ds II's right now used. ~$5200 for a used one and it will last forever. Even after big Erwin comes out the old 1DsII will probably still be able to be sold again for $4000. So around a $1K price tag to "rent" one. Who knows when Canon will be ready for big Erwin.
The "purchase" that Canon made that they are talking about was actually of some production lines and tools sold to Canon by Contax. One of the authors mistakenly said Mamiya which is incorrect. Contax was the Japanese contract manufacturer for Zeiss and Contax Zeiss made awesome medium format cameras with Zeiss optics. These were compatible with various medium format backs (Phase, Leaf, etc) up 48mmx36mm..But in the early 2000's Contax couldn't complete and stopped making medium format cameras. They sold their production lines and tools to Canon.
I would say the contax 35mm glass was great, and the MF glass was good. Canon would want to bring the MF glass up a notch. I remember the rumor as Mamiya however, and I don't remember it as long as five years ago.
But whatever, the point is to not start from scratch with the tooling. I suspect that Canon would make an integrated camera, however. Not a MF that accepts back.
dcmiller wrote:
I forgot the Canon buying Mamiya/contax equipment rumors of a couple years ago. They would certainly change the mount, but could certainly use the production equipment and employees.
Now THAT would explain the MF back makers freaking out. The P45 suddenly seems less attractive. The next 1 series will likely handle data rates of 100-120mps. Canon could build MF cameras at 24 and 44 mp and have 3fps. Same processors, and software essentially the same. Glass needs to be brought up a notch from the last Mamiya 645 offering (good but not zeiss/hassy good).
Canon only bought equipment from Contax. Mamiya was sold to a different company which is still doing business in Europe and Asia mainly for digital. Mamiya may make a big comeback this year in the US. Who knows.
Canon could crush the Mamiya and Hasselblad medium format cameras and the medium format model from Rollei/Sinar/Leaf. But the digital medium format market is tiny. I think it used to be like 5000 units total worldwide per year, probably a little more than that by now but less than 10,000 units per year. That is chump change for a company like Canon.
netexpress wrote:
Canon only bought equipment from Contax. Mamiya was sold to a different company which is still doing business in Europe and Asia mainly for digital. Mamiya may make a big comeback this year in the US. Who knows.
Canon could crush the Mamiya and Hasselblad medium format cameras and the medium format model from Rollei/Sinar/Leaf. But the digital medium format market is tiny. I think it used to be like 5000 units total worldwide per year, probably a little more than that by now but less than 10,000 units per year. That is chump change for a company like Canon....Show more →
Thats has been my thought, but I've become more optomistic. I believe the market is growing a lot. Canon is looking five or ten years down the road. There asking question like "What are all these young photogs using 1DsII going to be shooting in five years?" Digital SLR was the final blow killing film MF. But we really don't know what digital MF brings. What does a 40x50 native 300 dpi print look like?
dcmiller wrote:
I would say the contax 35mm glass was great, and the MF glass was good. Canon would want to bring the MF glass up a notch. I remember the rumor as Mamiya however, and I don't remember it as long as five years ago.
But whatever, the point is to not start from scratch with the tooling. I suspect that Canon would make an integrated camera, however. Not a MF that accepts back.
In the fall of 2006 Mamiya Optical transferred all assets to Cosmo Digital and formed a new company, Mamiya Digital Imaging. The Mamiya name and service as well as production of new products went into the new Mamiya Digital Imaging company. They are still happily in business. They have a popular 22MP medium format DSLR named the Mamiya ZD which they sell in Asia and the EU. The price is around $12K. They keep saying they'll bring it to the US but they haven't gotten their distribution together here. They did not sell to Canon.
Canon can't use the Contax Zeiss lens formulas. Contax refused to let those go and still holds the rights given to them by Zeiss as the sole producer outside of Zeiss to use those formulas. That really sucks because they hold the right but don't use the right. So that line is dead right now. But Canon can use all the tools and who know what deals they made about the body rights, or staff, etc.I only heard about the purchase of tools and that's it.
1. The new 12MP pro body is introduced next week.
2. The new 22MP body is announced but not introduced yet.
3. No update to 5D, but maybe a lower price? (Either by announcement or attrition...)
4. No update to the 30D
By the end of the year...
1. The folks dying for the 12MP pro body have gotten one.
2. The 22MP body is available.
3. Those waiting for a 40D move towards a less expensive 5D.
4. A 16MP "3D" is introduced, now that the pro body that was 16MP has moved to 22MP.
With a rather competent 400D and a less expensive FF 12MP body, a 40D is never going to be a big seller.
I love those "MF" rumors...
Wild speculation is fun.
Edited by danmitchell on Feb 17, 2007 at 09:40 AM GMT...Show more →
That's pretty much my best guess.
I won't be surprised at all if my guesses are absolutely, completely wrong.
"In a surprise move today, Canon denounced digital image reproduction as evil, and has introduced a all film lineup of cameras."
Edited by dcmiller on Feb 17, 2007 at 12:19 PM GMT
netexpress wrote:
In the fall of 2006 Mamiya Optical transferred all assets to Cosmo Digital and formed a new company, Mamiya Digital Imaging. The Mamiya name and service as well as production of new products went into the new Mamiya Digital Imaging company. They are still happily in business. They have a popular 22MP medium format DSLR named the Mamiya ZD which they sell in Asia and the EU. The price is around $12K. They keep saying they'll bring it to the US but they haven't gotten their distribution together here. They did not sell to Canon.
Canon can't use the Contax Zeiss lens formulas. Contax refused to let those go and still holds the rights given to them by Zeiss as the sole producer outside of Zeiss to use those formulas. That really sucks because they hold the right but don't use the right. So that line is dead right now. But Canon can use all the tools and who know what deals they made about the body rights, or staff, etc.I only heard about the purchase of tools and that's it. ...Show more →
It's not like the optical design hasn't been copied by everyone. If actual formulas for the glass is probably becoming antiquated too. It's not like the good old days when the refractive properties of radioactive heavy metals was a good thing.
My understanding is that mamiya america is a separate company, and the do not plan to market the ZD. But I thought I saw vistek in Canada has started stocking the camera. Could be wrong.
netexpress wrote:
Canon only bought equipment from Contax. Mamiya was sold to a different company which is still doing business in Europe and Asia mainly for digital. Mamiya may make a big comeback this year in the US. Who knows.
Canon could crush the Mamiya and Hasselblad medium format cameras and the medium format model from Rollei/Sinar/Leaf. But the digital medium format market is tiny. I think it used to be like 5000 units total worldwide per year, probably a little more than that by now but less than 10,000 units per year. That is chump change for a company like Canon....Show more →
The quesions are how big will the market become as the price comes down, and how far can Canon bring the price down?
It looks like my prior observation about mixed up rumors over the new EF mount and new lenses is taking body again with the "renascence" about a possible Canon MF body announcement and these last threads about Contax, etc... Itīs like a puzzle
dcmiller wrote:
They need to sell stuff to make money. The current 1 series is very well made and most are probably no where near 1/2 useful life. If they don't give people a reason to move up, there's little demand to replace. And as been said several times - who's going to be buying a 1DsII now? Since last summer sales have probably been low. When big erwin is released, I'll buy that. If a MF camera above Big Erwin is released I'll buy that too. (What would be a good Asian name - Super Lucky Biggest Erwin?). But they don't get my money until they deliver. I'm sure I'm one of many, many people waiting to write a check....Show more →
Maybe that's what I don't see as a pressing need for the professional. I worked for over a decade using only F1s and A1s, and I never bothered with EOS film cameras. So I guess I don't see the need for constantly upgrading unless there's a very useful enhancement or a tech breakthrough.
I've since changed careers but at times I still need to do some "real" photo work so I fall back on my F1/A1 systems if my 20D can't handle it.
IMO, simply stuffing more (like 22) Mpix in the 1Ds could be detrimental to IQ and I think that'd be a shame. If the 1D was bumped to 12 Mpx I think the camera had better be able to store it quickly enough to not only compare with the current frame rate but maybe even improve upon it or those fast shooting PJs and sports photogs will be disappointed and continue to use their "old" 1D.
Juan55 wrote:
It looks like my prior observation about mixed up rumors over the new EF mount and new lenses is taking body again with the "renascence" about a possible Canon MF body announcement and these last threads about Contax, etc... Itīs like a puzzle
Yes, like 1.3 crop
or 1.3 crop mode
Easy to misunderstand if the listener has a preconceived idea of the camera.
I'm heavily invested in the 1DII replacement having a full frame sensor. No reason, I just want to be right.
RJJR wrote:
Maybe that's what I don't see as a pressing need for the professional. I worked for over a decade using only F1s and A1s, and I never bothered with EOS film cameras. So I guess I don't see the need for constantly upgrading unless there's a very useful enhancement or a tech breakthrough.
I've since changed careers but at times I still need to do some "real" photo work so I fall back on my F1/A1 systems if my 20D can't handle it.
IMO, simply stuffing more (like 22) Mpix in the 1Ds could be detrimental to IQ and I think that'd be a shame. If the 1D was bumped to 12 Mpx I think the camera had better be able to store it quickly enough to not only compare with the current frame rate but maybe even improve upon it or those fast shooting PJs and sports photogs will be disappointed and continue to use their "old" 1D. ...Show more →
Processing speeds/costs have improved so much since the 1D2 that there would be no problem at all in moving 12MP at 8fps or even 10fps.
So there is no worry that Canon will make a slow camera.
In fact, if they wanted to they could probably move 22MP at 8fps - not that I think they will want to.
Regards,
I don't believe it's hard to build fast processors, but it is definitely hard to build fast processors that are energy efficient. Not only does the transistor size need to shrink but such things as processing algorithm improvement and other 'soft' changes must be made.
It's all fine and dandy if Canon makes a 10fps 12MP camera but would people use it if you can only shoot 100frames before needing a battery swap?
beewee wrote:
I don't believe it's hard to build fast processors, but it is definitely hard to build fast processors that are energy efficient. Not only does the transistor size need to shrink but such things as processing algorithm improvement and other 'soft' changes must be made.
It's all fine and dandy if Canon makes a 10fps 12MP camera but would people use it if you can only shoot 100frames before needing a battery swap?
I'd imagine that that is what Canon have been working on with DIGICIII
Regards,
dcmiller wrote:
At first I don't think they would push the prices down, I think they would set a new price/performance level.
Absolutely, it would happen over time. It took how many years to take the 1Ds's full frame sensor and translate it into something close to affordable as a 5D? I'm sure that trend will continue.
If the MF rumors, which I was suggesting here a year ago (and they called me insane!), are true, the camera has to come in somewhere in the $12-$20K range. The ZD is out there at $12K, and if Mamiya Imaging can get it together in the U.S. it is a direct competitor to Canon's MF. If not Canon just has to beat the MF back prices which are around $20K at the low end.
That would be where things started. Hopefully, Canon wouldn't just wipe everyone else out, and some competition would bring the prices down.
Let's not even go there, we have enough time systems/standards as it stands on earth with greenwich actual sidereal time, greenwich mean siderial time, actual solar time, mean solar time, Universal Time, Universal Time1, Universal Time coordinated, Temps Atomique International, GPS time... the list goes on and on.
