DaveMart
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 p.83 #7 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread | |
danmitchell wrote:
I still have this thought that there is another way for Canon to evolve the product line besides introducing a 1.3 crop sensor model to replace the 30D.
Thinking out a bit into the future, and looking at market segments rather than just buyers of current models, it seems like there are at least 4 identifiable groups :
1. P&S photographers
2. "Consumers"
3. "Prosumers"
4. Professionals
Clearly these categories of pretty general and there are those who cross over the categories. (As timbop pointed our when he wrote - about me? - that there are "serious amateurs like Dan who absolutely love their 400D and are happy to buy the $1200 glass to go with it")
Currently Canon markets 1.6 crop sensor cameras mostly to the middle two categories - what I referred to as "consumers" and "prosumers." Formerly the 350D was aimed at consumers and the 30D at prosumers.
I have a hunch that Canon would eventually like to move prosumers up into the full-frame cameras. (Or, looked at from Canon's point of view, push full-frame cameras into the prosumer space.)
Replacing the 30D with a 1.3 crop sensor camera would effectively differentiate market groups by sensor size. (Tiny P&S sensors, 1.6 consumer sensors, in-between 1.3 prosumer sensors, and full-frame pro sensors.)
Given some of what we've heard and seen from Canon, I think it is more likely that they would like to see prosumers on full-frame cameras. I have a hunch that the 400D may become the high end 1.6x sensor camera before too long and that something (the 5D? a cheaper version of the 5D?) will draw prosumers away from crop sensor cameras. Along with that, Canon could eventually introduce a more basic and less expensive 1.6x body below the 400D.
While a full-frame "replacement" for the 30D segment would, indeed, be more expensive than the 30D, adjusted for inflation I doubt it would be more expensive than the "prosumer" models originally were. In addition, the full-frame sensor would bring sufficient increased perceived (and, I'd argue, real) value to convince quite a few more 20D/30D owners (and even this 350D owner) to upgrade.
(I acknowledge that I have absolutely no actual knowledge of Canon's plans - but you knew that, right? - and that there are complications to my theory. But what is a RUMORS forum if not for wild speculation?)
Dan
If you check out the Canon White Paper, it certainly doesn't look according to them that there is any reason to expect FF at the 30D price point for ages.
My guess is that they can do a bit better than they have told us, and that there will indeed be a 7D around Feb, with 12MP and priced at perhaps $2500 intitially, gradually on offers and so on going for about $2100
That's why I am keen on the 1.3 - much more viable at teh 30D pice point.
For entry level, according to Chuck Westfall in his 'futures' paper, then EVF looks promising.
I'd expect that, perhaps as early as next autumn.
Regards,
DaveMart
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