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Archive 2006 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

  
 
wjmeyer
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p.50 #1 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


Over at Northlight Images it is mentioned that
"No new 1Ds this year but a 1D Mk3
[list}
  • Full-frame
  • 16.7mpix
  • 8 fps
  • Digic-III "

    I find this hard to believe, because if they introduce this without an upgrade to the current 1Ds MkII they would effectively kill all sales of that body. I find it more likely that a new 1D and 1Ds will be announced together...



  • Aug 28, 2006 at 11:13 AM
    dcmiller
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    p.50 #2 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    I don't believe this either. A "brush up" would be adding a larger LCD as in a 1DsIIn. But I don't thinl that would happen either.
    I'm don't think many people want those MK3 specs at full frame. Files too big and no crop.



    Aug 28, 2006 at 12:41 PM
    ipacmm
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    p.50 #3 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    It would be nice to see an upgrade to the Mark II N but so far all I want is something new to come out in the 1-series bodies....


    Aug 28, 2006 at 01:12 PM
    Richie S
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    p.50 #4 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    1000!!!!! Woo Hoo.How long til this show starts?


    Aug 28, 2006 at 01:18 PM
    Dan Martin
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    p.50 #5 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    My friend at Canon who was responsible for the 400D info I posted a few weeks ago is saying no new 1 series this year. He mostly deals with consumer bodies up to the 5D level, so there may still be a chance that something could be released. He has seen a 1-series Digic III body but he wasn't allowed to play with it, so he doesn't know if it was full frame or cropped. No clue what the megapixel count would be or any other specs for that matter. All he knows for sure is Digic III will be available on the next 1 series that's announced.

    He says that Canon does an excellent job of protecting information within their company, which is why leaks are rare. You pretty well have to directly be involved with a product to know when it will be available. The branch offices typically don't get model information until one month before the product is announced publicly. I'm sure the execs at the branches are well aware of the company roadmap, but anyone lower on the totem poll who could leak this info is kept well out of the loop.



    Aug 28, 2006 at 02:53 PM
    RDKirk
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    p.50 #6 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    wjmeyer wrote:
    Over at Northlight Images it is mentioned that
    "No new 1Ds this year but a 1D Mk3
    [list}
  • Full-frame
  • 16.7mpix
  • 8 fps
  • Digic-III "

    I find this hard to believe, because if they introduce this without an upgrade to the current 1Ds MkII they would effectively kill all sales of that body. I find it more likely that a new 1D and 1Ds will be announced together...


    Actually, Canon execs themselves said two years ago that such a camera would be the "next generation" of 1D. I fully expect them to do at least as much as they said they would do.

    AFAIK, no Canon exec has breathed a word publically about a 20+ mp camera, so that is therefore less probable based on actual words from Canon officials.



  • Aug 28, 2006 at 03:29 PM
    JCDoss
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    p.50 #7 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    jwil wrote:
    3. Upgrade to the CMOS on the 30D, with very little upgrade to the rest of the camera
    4. 20D and 30D are discontinued

    ...things seem to be shaping up for me to bat 5 for 5.


    How so are things shaping up for #3 and #4 to occur this fall?



    Aug 28, 2006 at 03:45 PM
    dcmiller
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    p.50 #8 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    The 20D went out of production when the 30D went in. It stays on the Canon web site until it is gone from retail. The web site supports the retailers. It's not an announcement of what is discontinued.
    Any changes to the 30D will make it a 40D. If they contimue that line. It seems that would happen first half of next year.



    Aug 28, 2006 at 04:03 PM
    jwil
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    p.50 #9 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    To my #3 prediction, announcing the 10MP APS-C CMOS on the XTi leads me to believe this same sensor is destined for a 30D replacement, I shouldn't have to explain the basis of that prediction in much detial here.

    As for timing of the announcement though, I think internal pressure on the product line from the XTi and external pressure from the Nikon D80 and D200 will force Canon to get a 10MP 30D replacement out the door ASAP.

    From an engineering perspective, dropping the new sensor into the existing 30D body wouldn't amount to much of a feat. If that happens then the 30D will go out of production, if I had better ties in retail it would be pretty easy to gauge this based on stock levels.

    And if that's the case then prediction 4 is true. (as dcmiller already pointed out, the 20D is out of production already, Canon is just waiting to dry up inventory)

    The real wild card is current channel stock levels. If Canon has done a poor job of product transition planning then distribution may be choking on 20D's and 30D's whose sales are slowing down. Introducing a new body now would be catastrophic. So Canon may be left in a bad position with a new product ready to announce and a glut of old product yet to sell. In that case, they would probably hold announcement of the new body for sometime between Photokina and PMA, or it'll be announced at Photokina but not available until the channel clears.

    In fairness, I should mention that I work in strategic planning for one of Canon's competitors (printer market though) so I have more than a passing knowledge of how these things tend to play out.

    Edited by jwil on Aug 28, 2006 at 07:03 PM GMT



    Aug 28, 2006 at 05:50 PM
    ChaseH
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    p.50 #10 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    They would be foolish to discontinue the 20d/30d line. There needs to be a "sports shooters" type 5d body.......something more for action (higher fps) and possibly a crop factor of some sort to get the lower market for action type photography IMO. I know i certainly wouldnt want to drop my 30d to be using a 5d for sports.


    Aug 28, 2006 at 05:53 PM
    jwil
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    p.50 #11 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    ChaseH wrote:
    They would be foolish to discontinue the 20d/30d line. There needs to be a "sports shooters" type 5d body.......something more for action (higher fps) and possibly a crop factor of some sort to get the lower market for action type photography IMO. I know i certainly wouldnt want to drop my 30d to be using a 5d for sports.



    Did I miss something?

    I'm talking about an upgrade replacement for the 30D, not outright discontinuation. However, they would be equally foolish to carry a 20D, 30D and (for example) a 40D at the same time. There isn't enough market space for that lineup, nor would they be functionally different enough to justify it.




    Aug 28, 2006 at 07:02 PM
    Dan Martin
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    p.50 #12 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    There will be no 30D replacement at photokina... they're still ramping up production to fill orders. The absolute earliest would be at PMA.


    Aug 28, 2006 at 07:56 PM
    Tom_W
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    p.50 #13 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    Dan Martin wrote:
    There will be no 30D replacement at photokina... they're still ramping up production to fill orders. The absolute earliest would be at PMA.


    It strikes me as odd that production is "ramping up". I would think that sales are relatively flat. It's a great camera, and as good or better than anything in its price range in terms of image quality, but I'm not seeing sales going anywhere but down with all the 10 mpx cameras around.

    I'm not saying that the 30D isn't as good as any 10 mpx camera - what I'm saying is that a good portion of the market wants megapixels first.

    Anyway, I expect that Canon's next move at the 30D level will be big, and I suspect that they're not going to make that move until the new camera is ready. Unfortunately, I don't think that is going to be the case in September. Hope I'm wrong.



    Aug 28, 2006 at 08:54 PM
    jwil
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    p.50 #14 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    A manufacturer is not "ramping" anything up halfway through a products life cycle. (particularly when stock of the previous generation is hanging around) I'm betting that the 30D was supposed to have a 10MP sensor to begin with but CMOS production wasn't ready in time for the launch, so it was released with the old sensor.

    The 30D is still a consumer level camera (admittedly at the upper end of that segment) but it's still in a position where megapixels = marketshare and if it doesn't get bumped to 10MP, Canon will start losing ground in the $1k~$1.5k segment.

    Ask yourself, what is the real advantage of a 30D in a market with the Rebel XTi at $500 less and the Nikon D80 (and Sony Alpha) with higher resolution at $300 less? Other than brand loyalty, the 30D has no real advantage here. Let's be honest: the 30D is actually 2 year old design. The "upgrade" from 20D to 30D was minor at best, making the camera pretty overdue for an overhaul.



    Aug 28, 2006 at 09:58 PM
    timbop
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    p.50 #15 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    jwil wrote:
    A manufacturer is not "ramping" anything up halfway through a products life cycle. (particularly when stock of the previous generation is hanging around) I'm betting that the 30D was supposed to have a 10MP sensor to begin with but CMOS production wasn't ready in time for the launch, so it was released with the old sensor.

    The 30D is still a consumer level camera (admittedly at the upper end of that segment) but it's still in a position where megapixels = marketshare and if it doesn't get bumped to 10MP, Canon will start losing ground in the $1k~$1.5k segment.

    Ask yourself, what
    ...Show more

    May I be the first to say: relatively clean ISO 3200 and 5fps. A parent of one of my soccer players is a pro Nikon shooter, and she was astonished to see my indoor soccer pics shot at ISO3200. As for being an "old" design, it still competes quite well with anything from Nikon. True it does not command the market share that the 20D once did, but it is still in decent shape.



    Aug 28, 2006 at 10:39 PM
    jwil
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    p.50 #16 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    Guy Mancuso wrote:
    Like I said many posts back just revolutionary stuff and nothing evolutionary and comments like 'jwil' just said proofs my point. Not picking on you 'jwil' but what i am saying is what is the point , consumers are not stupid and will look elsewhere when they see camera's coming out with obvious upgrades that really do nothing except try to earn money for Canon. Let' s face it the 1dMKII to the 1dMKIIn what was the selling point a larger LCD and the upgrades could have easily been in a firware upgrade . i may be mssing something
    ...Show more

    First and foremost, Canon is a corporation out to make money and meet the demands of a board of directors and the shareholders. NEVER forget that about any major corporation. A company cares about the consumer only as far as it takes to part them from their money. Period.

    People talk about customer satisfaction, loyalty, and the needs of the market, but understanding what drives consumer behavior is a self serving for a company, not philanthropy. It's about ensuring there is a widget that a consumer will pay top dollar for in whatever market a company is after. It's not about giving the consumer the worlds greatest product and taking a financial bath on it because it somehow moved the industry forward.

    So, when you say Canon appears to be churning out products with marginal feature benefit for the sake of selling more product, I'd suggest that's exactly what they have in mind. Same as Nikon, and Sony, and Olympus, et. al.

    Consumers are not typically driven by a mindset of "this company just wants my money so I'm going to boycott them", the normal drivers are aquisition cost, feature set, reliability, past experience (loyalty to brand) and reputation. Typically in about that order, and this is all well documented by companies like JD Power, Gallup, Harris etc.

    Now the interesting thing is that as you move up the range in Canon's camera line there is a pretty major change in mindset. The lowend is dominated by consumer sheep that think more megapixels is the end-all be-all of quality, and the higher end is dominated by advanced consumers and pros that realize a gimmick is a gimmick and there's no need to dump a 1DM2 for a 1DM2n just to get a larger LCD. The drivers at the high end are more about total cost of ownership, output quality, duty cycle and MTBF/lifetime reliability.

    For the upmarket, you are correct in that a new new camera needs to be a significant improvement over the outgoing model. I think Canon messed up with the 1DM2n and didn't provide a compelling reason to upgrade. My theory is that sales of the new 1DM2n would have probably been quite disappointing if the old 1DM2 had hung around in the channel at a lower price than the 1DM2n.

    For the upmarket a very significant upgrade needs to be offered, further cementing my belief that a new 1D or 1Ds replacement will not appear at Photokina. The current Marks are VERY hard acts to follow. However for the mass market, Canon needs to be spec competetive with not only the competition but their own new low end. Again, the segment that the 30D lies in is still very consumer oriented in the mass market and only a 2fps advantage over a D80 at a cost of $300 will not be enough to satisfy consumers.

    (both cameras have 3200ISO and 'usable' is subjective in it's value toward the price difference)

    Long story short, I'd love to see Canon introduce some astonishingly good products that are targeted toward a discriminating users needs, but that simply isn't their focus as a corporation. Canon has a cash cow in it's camera line and it'll milk it for all it's worth, bank on that.

    Edited by Jeff on Aug 28, 2006 at 09:56 PM GMT (Reason: quote tags for clarity)



    Aug 28, 2006 at 11:30 PM
    Dan Martin
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    p.50 #17 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    jwil wrote:
    A manufacturer is not "ramping" anything up halfway through a products life cycle. .


    You sound pretty confident about that, but my source has another opinion. Do you also have insider info? Several major distributors have low inventory levels of the 30D and Canon is trying to fill those orders now. Despite the fanboys that think they know the business better than Canon, the 30D is selling quite well, as is the 1DmkIIn for that matter.

    I guarantee there will not be a replacement for the 30D at the end of next month. Even PMA is pretty early but it's a possibility that they might announce a replacement then if market conditions warrant its release. If they replace the 30D at the end of next month, I will take back everything I said and ignore my friends first-hand knowledge (even though I was the first to break the new Rebel XTi info to this site).



    Aug 28, 2006 at 11:32 PM
    jwil
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    p.50 #18 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    Dan Martin wrote:
    You sound pretty confident about that, but my source has another opinion. Do you also have insider info? Several major distributors have low inventory levels of the 30D and Canon is trying to fill those orders now. Despite the fanboys that think they know the business better than Canon, the 30D is selling quite well, as is the 1DmkIIn for that matter.

    I guarantee there will not be a replacement for the 30D at the end of next month. Even PMA is pretty early but it's a possibility that they might announce a replacement then if market conditions warrant its
    ...Show more

    I think you might have just provided the key yourself with "Several major distributors have low inventory levels of the 30D and Canon is trying to fill those orders now."

    I could be wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time but I've seen this pattern more than a few times with product transitions. The 30D never seemed to be that much of an upgrade, I thought that when it was released and still do. It didn't follow the upgrade path of the D30-D60-10D-20D and seemed a bit crippled. A "major" upgrade and it amounted to picture styles, a bigger LCD and a spot meter? Yeah, right.

    And this is for the second most important segment (financially) of their digital camera line. Either a) Canon management really didn't understand what the competition was up to and they got caught with their pants down, b) they arrogantly thought the competition couldn't be so close to closing the feature gap in that segment, or c) they ran into technical problems getting higher res CMOS out the door in time for the 30D launch.

    I'm betting on C, and that would explain inventory constraints as they try to clear the channel now in advance of a replacement. I'd be interested in two things, first supply chain conditions of the 20D and what the ETA is (from Canon) on 30D shipments to suppliers. IF the 20D is drying up and 30D's are forecast for more than 30 days then I think a new body stands a better than 60% chance of hitting at Photokina.

    If Canon purposely retards production of the 30D, not only does channel inventory on that model dry up, and consumers may opt for a cheaper 20D as well ('it's almost the same thing after all' says the sales guy). Supply of both models go the way of the dodo as Canon changes the production line for a 30Dmk2 or 40D (or whatever) that ends up being the same camera with a 10MP sensor. Elegant transition, no, but it is certainly making the best of a bad business situation.

    But what do I know....

    Edited by jwil on Aug 29, 2006 at 12:02 AM GMT



    Aug 28, 2006 at 11:58 PM
    tom2517
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    p.50 #19 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    10DFT wrote:
    It strikes me as odd that production is "ramping up". I would think that sales are relatively flat. It's a great camera, and as good or better than anything in its price range in terms of image quality, but I'm not seeing sales going anywhere but down with all the 10 mpx cameras around.

    I'm not saying that the 30D isn't as good as any 10 mpx camera - what I'm saying is that a good portion of the market wants megapixels first.

    Anyway, I expect that Canon's next move at the 30D level will be big, and I suspect that
    ...Show more


    I agree, my friend who runs a camera store told me 30D's sale has been average at best, same with his distributor. He says (Canon buyers) mostly either buy the rebel or jump straight to 5D.

    So I highly doubt 30D is in shortage.



    Aug 29, 2006 at 12:01 AM
    stuuke
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    p.50 #20 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


    How long before the professional level Mark II N has higher resolution than that camera the tennis players use? I'm being somewhat sarcastic.


    Aug 29, 2006 at 12:03 AM
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