'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

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Archive 2006 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

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p.49 #1 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

From speaking with a number of dealers. In each case, they said that their spread was about 50 to 1 and that that was pretty much matching what the Canon reps were telling them was normal. In addition, there was a poll here (a group that tends to be more advanced than the average user) and the results came out right about at that 50-1 mark.

I wouldn't bet the farm that 50-1 is dead on accurate but I suspect it is close. Also, I suspect that the Rebel outsells the 20D/30D by way more than 10X as it is their mass market line and handled by the big merchandisers such as Best Buy et al.

The real point isn't what the exact product line sales split is but rather that Canon's main profit center isn't on equipment that interests many of the people here.

Aug 27, 2006 at 01:57 PM

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p.49 #2 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

Unfortunately, the "rest of us" don't really matter all that much. The 20D/30D outsell the 5D by 50 to 1 and I would suspect the Rebels outsell the 20D/30D by 10X that. I would be surprised if the Series 1 bodies even register as a blip on the sales charts.

We don't know, however, what expectations Canon Inc has for 1D sales. Canon produces a comprehensive line of cameras to capture the full range of the market.

I doubt they even bother to closely compare numbers of units sold between their own camera models. Does a grocery store compare the number of apples sold to the number of oranges sold? (This is a different question from tracking percentage of units sold against percentage of units produced.)

I suspect, rather, that they are looking at market share at each market segment. How much of the top-end professional market do they have? How much of the low-end hobby market do they have? Regardless of actual units sold, a commanding market share in either would be a rosy picture from the sales standpoint.

Whether even owning the majority of market share is profitable is another issue that Canon would have already worked out before making the decision to enter or remain in a market segment.

Aug 27, 2006 at 02:00 PM

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p.49 #3 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

Peter and Guy,

Thanks for appreciating my lack of mental stability. My wife doesn't and my kids warn new friends that their father is likely to behave like the Mad Hatter but not to be frightened as I am usually harmless.

Aug 27, 2006 at 02:02 PM

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p.49 #4 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

RDKirk wrote:
I doubt they even bother to closely compare numbers of units sold between their own camera models. ...
(This is a different question from tracking percentage of units sold against percentage of units produced.)

I know nothing about Canon internals, but I am 100% sure: yes, they do compare. Margins etc. depend on volume; you need to plan whether to replace retired or not, etc.

Actually I think it is done automatically and just a standard part of their monthly manufacturing report.

Aug 27, 2006 at 02:44 PM

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p.49 #5 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

"You have to get off the gear part and start shooting."

Don't assume that a person who is interested in gear is not also shooting. The two are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

"I hope and pray they [Canon] go to the detachable grip ala the film 1-series. The days of the brick are, I hope, over."

Yes! I have never understood the fascination with Really Big and Heavy camera bodies where a smaller, lighter body would do quite well - and, in some cases, much better.

Take care,

Dan

Edited by danmitchell on Aug 27, 2006 at 07:30 AM GMT

Aug 27, 2006 at 03:23 PM

Tim Gray
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p.49 #6 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

Any tips on how to navigate back to page 92, which is where I left off? without clicking forever?

Without being able to track unread posts by thread, this "uber" thread concept doesn't work for me (said politely). (and I don't want 123 pages of email notifications either).

Aug 27, 2006 at 03:26 PM

Tim Gray
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p.49 #7 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

danmitchell wrote:
"You have to get off the gear part and start shooting."

Don't assume that a person who is interested in gear is not also shooting. The two are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

Take care,

Dan

In support of Dan's comment - In fact, I have 3 distinct (but related) hobbies.

1: going places and pressing the shutter
2: processing and printing
3: collecting 'stuff' related to 1 and 2

There's no reason to denigrate #3.

Aug 27, 2006 at 03:31 PM

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p.49 #8 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

Tim, it's really easy!

This page (assuming no one post before I do) has the URL:

http://www.fredmiranda.com/forum/topic/436826/122

Change the last digit to the page you want to go to and remember they start with 0. So http://www.fredmiranda.com/forum/topic/436826/91 should bring you to page 92.

Aug 27, 2006 at 03:34 PM

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p.49 #9 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

To make a point about Sony. It's not just Walkman's and P&S. Check out the pro vidio market. FYI

Aug 27, 2006 at 03:40 PM

Tim Gray
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p.49 #10 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

Ah..... cool tip. Thanks.

BTW, FWIW:

MR on LL:

Addendum
Along with a new Rebel, many people – this reporter included, have been expecting a new 1 Series camera from Canon this season. It seems that this is not to be, at least not this calendar year. I have now heard from more than one reliable source that a new 1 Series will be seen no earlier than the first quarter of 2007, likely about a month prior to PMA. Definitely not a Photokina 2006 announcement. One would have to assume that since Canon tends to stick to the Spring and Fall trade show schedule for its new camera introductions, a 30D replacement is still at least a half year off as well. My sources may be wrong though, or Canon may accelerate things due to competitive pressures. Time will tell. (Or, you can keep your eye on the Canon China web site. They seem to be this year's best rumour validation source).

at:

http://www.luminous-landscape.com/reviews/cameras/rebel%20xti.shtml

Aug 27, 2006 at 03:43 PM

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p.49 #11 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

justinjones wrote:
Sneakyracer wrote:

Yep, thats correct

Guys, Relax, Canon will inroduce a NEW 1Ds (20+mp) this september, so relax and enjoy this next few weeks. As always it will blow away all of the currently available DSLRs and a few medium format backs. Expend your efforts trying to get the $8K rounded up to make the purchase

Aug 27, 2006 at 05:32 PM

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p.49 #12 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

Lumious Landscape as part of hands on report off the XTi states no more new bodies this year.

Addendum

Along with a new Rebel, many people – this reporter included, have been expecting a new 1 Series camera from Canon this season. It seems that this is not to be, at least not this calendar year. I have now heard from more than one reliable source that a new 1 Series will be seen no earlier than the first quarter of 2007, likely about a month prior to PMA. Definitely not a Photokina 2006 announcement. One would have to assume that since Canon tends to stick to the Spring and Fall trade show schedule for its new camera introductions, a 30D replacement is still at least a half year off as well. My sources may be wrong though, or Canon may accelerate things due to competitive pressures. Time will tell. (Or, you can keep your eye on the Canon China web site. They seem to be this year's best rumour validation source).

http://www.luminous-landscape.com/reviews/cameras/rebel%20xti.shtml

Aug 27, 2006 at 05:40 PM

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p.49 #13 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

Sneakyracer wrote:
justinjones wrote:
Sneakyracer wrote:

Yep, thats correct

Does anyone know if the sensor is supposed to be Foveon-like or not?

Its not going to be Foveon, Canon will be continously updating their current CMOS sensor technology, they have been "quietly" doing that non stop.

Canon is supposed to have a patent on a "Foveon" like technlogy called "cyclic" sensor. where at 50Khertz the sensitivity of each photo site is switiched from R to B to G.

Aug 27, 2006 at 05:44 PM

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p.49 #14 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

I'm not sure why a Foveon-type sensor is usually considered better for the future. Given area X, is it better to stack three one color sensors, or place four side by side? So far we know it took a foveon chip with 9 million sensors to equal a bayer design with 6 million.
I would argue that to date the Foveon approach appears to be substantially inferior to Bayer.

Aug 27, 2006 at 06:28 PM

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p.49 #15 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

I have now heard from more than one reliable source that a new 1 Series will be seen no earlier than the first quarter of 2007, likely about a month prior to PMA. Definitely not a Photokina 2006 announcement.

Does a disclosure that there is nothing to disclose require a nondisclosure agreement?

Aug 27, 2006 at 06:44 PM

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p.49 #16 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

RDKirk wrote:

Unfortunately, the "rest of us" don't really matter all that much. The 20D/30D outsell the 5D by 50 to 1 and I would suspect the Rebels outsell the 20D/30D by 10X that. I would be surprised if the Series 1 bodies even register as a blip on the sales charts.

We don't know, however, what expectations Canon Inc has for 1D sales. Canon produces a comprehensive line of cameras to capture the full range of the market.

I doubt they even bother to closely compare numbers of units sold between their own camera models. Does a grocery store compare the number of apples sold to the number of oranges sold? (This is a different question from tracking percentage of units sold against percentage of units produced.)

I suspect, rather, that they are looking at market share at each market segment. How much of the top-end professional market do they have? How much of the low-end hobby market do they have? Regardless of actual units sold, a commanding market share in either would be a rosy picture from the sales standpoint.

Whether even owning the majority of market share is profitable is another issue that Canon would have already worked out before making the decision to enter or remain in a market segment.

For my sins, I used to do cost and works accountancy, and I can assure you that Canon and every other manufacturer will know exactly how many of each model they sell.
How are fyou going to know how many to produce, or what parts to order, if you don't?
Regards,
DaveMart

Aug 27, 2006 at 08:27 PM

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p.49 #17 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

[For my sins, I used to do cost and works accountancy, and I can assure you that Canon and every other manufacturer will know exactly how many of each model they sell.
How are fyou going to know how many to produce, or what parts to order, if you don't?
Regards,
DaveMart

I didn't make my point well. Certainly they keep all the numbers, but my point was that their decision to stay or enter a particular market segment does not rest on a comparison of the absolute number of units they can sell in one segment to the absolute number of units they can sell in another unit, but rather on the profitability they determine they want from each segment.

I sell a lot more 16x20 portraits than 30x40 portraits, but its my 30x40 portraits that draw in both markets.

Aug 28, 2006 at 01:12 AM

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p.49 #18 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

johnastovall wrote:
Lumious Landscape as part of hands on report off the XTi states no more new bodies this year.

Addendum

Along with a new Rebel, many people – this reporter included, have been expecting a new 1 Series camera from Canon this season. It seems that this is not to be, at least not this calendar year. I have now heard from more than one reliable source that a new 1 Series will be seen no earlier than the first quarter of 2007, likely about a month prior to PMA. Definitely not a Photokina 2006 announcement. One would have to assume that since Canon tends to stick to the Spring and Fall trade show schedule for its new camera introductions, a 30D replacement is still at least a half year off as well. My sources may be wrong though, or Canon may accelerate things due to competitive pressures. Time will tell. (Or, you can keep your eye on the Canon China web site. They seem to be this year's best rumour validation source).

http://www.luminous-landscape.com/reviews/cameras/rebel%20xti.shtml

I'm sticking to my 5 predictons for Photokina:

1. Intro of a new Digital Rebel (XTi?)
2. Rebel XT remains in the line at a lower price as a starter camera until 8MP CMOS supply is depleted
3. Upgrade to the CMOS on the 30D, with very little upgrade to the rest of the camera
4. 20D and 30D are discontinued
5. Price drop on the 5D

I put those in writing on another forum on 8/23, and things seem to be shaping up for me to bat 5 for 5. I suspect Canon is having problems getting production quanities up on whatever new high res CMOS they are working on, and they need the extra 6 months between now and PMA to get it done.

Aug 28, 2006 at 02:31 AM

DaveMart
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p.49 #19 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

RDKirk wrote:
[For my sins, I used to do cost and works accountancy, and I can assure you that Canon and every other manufacturer will know exactly how many of each model they sell.
How are fyou going to know how many to produce, or what parts to order, if you don't?
Regards,
DaveMart

I didn't make my point well. Certainly they keep all the numbers, but my point was that their decision to stay or enter a particular market segment does not rest on a comparison of the absolute number of units they can sell in one segment to the absolute number of units they can sell in another unit, but rather on the profitability they determine they want from each segment.

I sell a lot more 16x20 portraits than 30x40 portraits, but its my 30x40 portraits that draw in both markets.

I thought that wan't like you, RD!

Regards,
DaveMart

Aug 28, 2006 at 02:41 AM

Johnny Bravo
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p.49 #20 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

RDKirk wrote:

Does a disclosure that there is nothing to disclose require a nondisclosure agreement?

Yes, and that will be 275 dollars, please.

Aug 28, 2006 at 02:51 AM

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