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Archive 2006 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

  
 
RDKirk
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p.45 #1 · p.45 #1 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


I hope you are correct but help me understand how the 16mp full frame would compare, pixel density wise, with the current Mark2N. I know this has been chewed over before but I can't find a reference to how it would compare to a 1.3 crop snesor. In other words, would a full frame 16mp body give a better, worse, or the same image resolution as the current 1.3 crop Mark2N? Anyone? Thanks.

They already have a 16mp full frame sensor in the 1Ds, and it produces better resolution than the current 1.3 crop sensor. It just can't produce the same frame rate per second.



Aug 25, 2006 at 06:53 AM
clocksley
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p.45 #2 · p.45 #2 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


RDKirk wrote:
I'm still predicting two cameras:

1. 16mp, 24x36mm, 8fps, $4500 (maybe up to $5000 initially)
2. 22mp, 24x36mm, 4fps, $8000 (maybe up to $10000 initially)

I don't think they will waver far from those price points. They've already said that their plan is to make all the pro cameras 24x36mm, and all it should take is DIGIC III (already announced) to push even the current 1Ds sensor to 8fps.

The introduction of the 5D suggests that they have solved most problems with 24x36mm sensors. A more modern design and assembly process should be able to get it down to $4500. People who want
...Show more

At the moment the 1Ds II retails for around £4500 - what would happen to this if they make an almost identical camera with 8fps and costing £2500? The retail price of the 1Ds II goes from £4500 to £1995 - not a chance!



Aug 25, 2006 at 06:57 AM
RDKirk
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p.45 #3 · p.45 #3 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


EOS20 wrote:
There is still a chance a new 1 series camera is on the way in a few weeks. There was a leak in the Canon US press release of the Digic III processor, So we may still see another camera or 2 in a few weeks time!


Photokina is too significant for them to walk in having already spent their wad weeks earlier. I expect them to hold their really big professional news until just before Photokina opens.

Getting their consumer cameras into the market now is a smart way to build momentum for the holiday buying season, but the professional market is not so subject to those considerations.



Aug 25, 2006 at 06:58 AM
RDKirk
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p.45 #4 · p.45 #4 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


At the moment the 1Ds II retails for around £4500 - what would happen to this if they make an almost identical camera with 8fps and costing £2500? The retail price of the 1Ds II goes from £4500 to £1995 - not a chance!


They would not continue selling the current 1Ds II. I suspect they stopped production months ago (and they don't care about the used market).



Aug 25, 2006 at 07:01 AM
DaveMart
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p.45 #5 · p.45 #5 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


Completely unsubstantiated, but I heard the following from someone who claims to be 'in the know' - a replacement for the 30D - which has a bigger body than the 30D, and outdoes anything in this class in resolution.
My own gloss - no reason for it to be bigger, if it uses the same mirror box as the 30D, so onlyh a 1.3 would make sense to me, as the 5D fills the FF niche and FF costs are still out of line for a camera in the 30D class - from the recent Canon white paper the costs of 1.3 did not sound unreasonable for a camera in this class - the sensor might cost perhaps 2-3 times that of an APS-C sensor, and that could easily have 12MP or more.
Canon have also recently indicated that the 'would like' to continue using the 1.3.
Of course, this would not be good news for the EF-S mount, and 30D users might be miffed, but I think the introduction of the 400D indicates that this sort of consideration does not always weigh too heavily on Canon.
Anyone heard anything/ Thoughts?
Regards,
DaveMart



Aug 25, 2006 at 07:06 AM
Geert Koning
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p.45 #6 · p.45 #6 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


lordcarl wrote:
EOS 5D is a 2-year cycle product - the replacement won't be due until next August.


That's soon enough for me, I really like my 5D as it is but there is always something to wish for:

maybe a little more resolution ( how about the 16.7 mp sensor )
anti dust sensor ( because I like primes and change lenses a lot )
split focussreen as an optional ( I like to manual focus )



Aug 25, 2006 at 07:07 AM
timparkin
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p.45 #7 · p.45 #7 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


I think another point of this is that they don't want the 400D news to completely obscure the professional news (i.e. 1dsmkIII or whatever). If they released news all at the same time they wouldn't get any extra publicity, it would be about the same or possibly slightly longer, If they spread the release over a couple of months, they get two swipes at publicity, one nice and open now to compete with Nikon and planted firmly in the consumer territory (with a couple of lenses to get at least some pro interest) and then another story during photokina to get yet more column inches (and the difference of a whole month is the difference between being featured in one magazine (september) or two magazines (september and october)..


Aug 25, 2006 at 07:27 AM
Hrow
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p.45 #8 · p.45 #8 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


RDKirk wrote:
Photokina is too significant for them to walk in having already spent their wad weeks earlier. I expect them to hold their really big professional news until just before Photokina opens.

Getting their consumer cameras into the market now is a smart way to build momentum for the holiday buying season, but the professional market is not so subject to those considerations.


I totally agree with RD. The writing is on the wall, so to speak, given the very subtle manner that they said DIGIC III exists. The release of the Rebel is a harbinger of things to come, not the totality of the Photokina releases. But even if it is...

Over the next six months, I expect that we are going to see a near total realignment of Canon's bodies. Unlike RD, I do not think that the 1.3x sensors are going to be eliminated. The cost savings for this format are real and they obviously have the ability to bump up the MPs to the 12+ range. DIGIC III should be able to deliver the same frame rates and with the improvement in sensor technology, incrediable image quality. For sports and wildlife shooters, an enormously important segment to Canon because of their advertising value, this would come close to being the Holy Grail of cameras.

Here's my prediction of where Canon is heading...

1DsMkIII - FF - 20+ MP, 4 to 5 FPS, Pro Body with revised control system - $6500
1DMkIII - 1.3X - 12+ MP, 8 FPS, Pro Body with revised control system - $4000
5Dx (3D) - FF - 12 MP, 5 FPS, Series 1 focusing, weather sealed (sort of) - $3000
5D - FF - existing camera - $2000
30D - 1.6X - existing camera - $1200
400D - 1.6X - new model - $900

Please note that I think you are going to see the integration of some pretty neat features into all or at least the new bodies. It wouldn't surprise me to see ECF appear on the 5Dx and the dust control system - assuming it works - should be included on all. I'm thinking that the much discussed 3D is really a pretty easy add in to the model line-up but as a step-up to the 5D rather than the 30D.








Aug 25, 2006 at 07:52 AM
Numfar
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p.45 #9 · p.45 #9 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


markshaxted wrote:
All this talk of merging the 1 series doesn't make much sense. I know that Canon have stated that as their desire, but think about it.

Current 1DIIN users (sports/journalists) bought that camera for a reason, rather than the 1Ds. It was for speed/crop/price, A combined 1 series is going to be extremely expensive - sure it may have a high speed crop mode, but your going to pay an awful lot for stuff you don't need/use.

This doesn't make marketing sense to me.


It may make sense from a production cost stand point (making one camera is cheaper than making two). I don't know about camera production, but this is the case with vehicles - the more you can harmonize production, the greater the savings.

It may be a necessity from a competitive standpoint - Nikon's pro stuff is very good, and cheaper than the 1dsII

Combine the savings from streamlining production and the need to be more competative, perhaps the new merged camera sells for just a bit more than the previous 1DIIn.

But I also think this is why the 3D makes sense. Make it a fast shooter, lighter, less MPs and weather sealed, and the sports types who shoot for newsprint, reporters etc will be happy with it. Glossy shooters, fashion, anything needing high MP - go for the 1D.

B



Aug 25, 2006 at 08:38 AM
joebee
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p.45 #10 · p.45 #10 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread




I don't think the 5D will be changed or a new model introduced between it and the 1 series for the next year. The 30D would be my canidate for change in early 2007. I would be surprised if Canon upgraded both the 1Ds and 1D this fall. The more likely route would be to change the 1Ds in the fall and the 1D in early 2007.

I agree the 3D would be an upgrade to the 5D not the 30D and the 5D pricing will adjust after the Christmas season rebates. Canon has a much higher number of 30D users. If
...Show more



Aug 25, 2006 at 09:23 AM
dcmiller
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p.45 #11 · p.45 #11 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


Sony has messed up in so many areas. TV's, robots with no market, millions of potentially flaming laptop batteries. We'll see with DSLR.

Looking at Canons current lineup, it does seem that we will see another camera this year. To not release another camera this year would mean that Canon is slowing down while the market is heating up. But Canon appears to be executing better than anyone selling DSLR. Take the 400D. It will ship in quantity to dealers before the 8th. I received my 5D several days before the specific release date. How does this compare to Nikon?. Sony shows photos of a complete line of DSLR lenses. But what can one buy?

Canon's release of the sensor white papers indicated to me that they expect/need to get a significant premium on full size sensor cameras. I do think the 5D price will come down, but it's not going to compete on a dollar per megabyte basis with crop cameras. Like a lot of people I'm not sure how the xxD line fits in all of this.



Aug 25, 2006 at 09:55 AM
PimpDaddy
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p.45 #12 · p.45 #12 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


Sony has messed up in so many areas. TV's, robots with no market, millions of potentially flaming laptop batteries. We'll see with DSLR.
-------------------------------------------------------------
How about the rootkit fiasco? Sony used basically the SAME software that spyware programs used.

The PS3 is having a hard time as well.

I'm all finished with Sony. Let them do whatever they want, hopefully it will make Canon drop their prices



Aug 25, 2006 at 10:58 AM
DaveMart
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p.45 #13 · p.45 #13 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


PimpDaddy wrote:
Sony has messed up in so many areas. TV's, robots with no market, millions of potentially flaming laptop batteries. We'll see with DSLR.
-------------------------------------------------------------
How about the rootkit fiasco? Sony used basically the SAME software that spyware programs used.

The PS3 is having a hard time as well.

I'm all finished with Sony. Let them do whatever they want, hopefully it will make Canon drop their prices

It's not the expense of the Sony cameras, it's buying the flame retadant suits to use with their batteries that costs...
Regards,
DaveMart



Aug 25, 2006 at 11:06 AM
Jeff
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p.45 #14 · p.45 #14 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


dcmiller wrote:
Sony has messed up in so many areas. TV's...


Not so sure I agree that (based upon my past and current experiences), they currently have the hottest rear-projection technology out there, and were the first to choose to abandon plasma screens, which will soon die on the vine, despite all the plasma fanboys out there. Their new SXRD sets are about the finest thing out there (IQ-wise), and as with Canon and CMOS sensors, everyone said that LCOS was a dead-before-born technology that couldn't be made to be profitable, nor technologically sound. The SXRD was effectively the first set on the market to (finally) fully exploit the HDTV standard of 1920x1080 resolution, and they did it with an entirely new technology that had been abandoned by JVC as 'not viable'.

Despite all the flak they receive from people over their TVs, they've consistently produced fine sets that often last decades. I'm still using a 14-year old 27" CRT, and aside from replacing the power module once, it's been flawless, and the picture remains so. IMHO.

As far as dSLRs go, it's anybody's guess, but Sony certainly has the financial strength to make an impact on the market (one way or another), if they choose to do so.



Aug 25, 2006 at 11:17 AM
Philippe Arnez
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p.45 #15 · p.45 #15 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


Looking forward to the new joint venture technology by Canon / Toshiba: SED
(Surface-conduction Electron-emitter Display),

If it really gets as good as they say, it will probably not only be the definitive death of plasma but also outrun LCD.

FWIW: my parents Sony CRT TV is dying. This is a supposable bad moment. I'm telling them to get another CRT, since they're so cheap. I think the Flat-TV technology is still not really mature.



Edited by Philippe Arnez on Aug 25, 2006 at 06:48 PM GMT (Reason: link added)



Aug 25, 2006 at 11:42 AM
clocksley
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p.45 #16 · p.45 #16 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


Sony as a brand name will appeal to the uneducated masses of newbie DSLR users - everyone and their grandma will have one before long, sticking themselves in the bl**dy way at weddings, and proclaiming to be professionals and so on.
Sony is what people know - your uncle Trevor who wants a camera will think "Ooh Sony are famous so it must be good" "My CD player is a Sony therefore...." and so on. They will shift millions.
I feel it will always be at the lower end of the market though - real photographers know the merits of Canon and Nikon etc, and Sony are just sticking their oar in to grab some of the market. It will be a very very long time till all the cameras at the side of a football pitch are Sony instead of Canon - hopefully never...
Their financial strength is one thing, but look at Toyota in Formula One - biggest budget, and no success at all in years of trying - you can't buy success.



Aug 25, 2006 at 11:42 AM
Nowhere Man
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p.45 #17 · p.45 #17 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


clocksley wrote:
Sony as a brand name will appeal to the uneducated masses of newbie DSLR users - everyone and their grandma will have one before long, sticking themselves in the bl**dy way at weddings, and proclaiming to be professionals and so on.
Sony is what people know - your uncle Trevor who wants a camera will think "Ooh Sony are famous so it must be good" "My CD player is a Sony therefore...." and so on. They will shift millions.
I feel it will always be at the lower end of the market though - real photographers know the merits of Canon and
...Show more

Bitter much?



Aug 25, 2006 at 12:35 PM
clocksley
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p.45 #18 · p.45 #18 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


About what? Wedding fools getting in the way? Or Sony releasing mass-market cack?

Both actually...



Aug 25, 2006 at 12:41 PM
RDKirk
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p.45 #19 · p.45 #19 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


DaveMart wrote:
Completely unsubstantiated, but I heard the following from someone who claims to be 'in the know' - a replacement for the 30D - which has a bigger body than the 30D, and outdoes anything in this class in resolution.
My own gloss - no reason for it to be bigger, if it uses the same mirror box as the 30D, so onlyh a 1.3 would make sense to me, as the 5D fills the FF niche and FF costs are still out of line for a camera in the 30D class - from the recent Canon white paper the costs of
...Show more

"Brian Worley, product manager of D-SLR cameras at Canon Europa, said that it's a long way before all EOS models will have a full size sensor, but Canon's aim is to equip all models, except the cheapest, with a 35mm sensor in the future. "
http://www.digit.no/wip4/detail.epl?id=59456

I don't think they will put out a new 1D model with the 1.3 sensor.

The Rebels will certainly continue with the APS-C sensor for a period beyond current Canon plans, and at some point there may be a transition of the xxD level to 24x36, but with DIGIC III in production, I would not place any money on another model with the 1.3 sensor.

The white paper contained the writing on the wall for that sensor--Canon is pushing the 24x36mm sensor as Nirvana for the professional market, and even most sports pros who can afford the 1Ds are using it.

Something Canon has said repeatedly since releasing the 20D is that their 1D cameras are not marketed to the photographer who buys his own equipment. In other words, they're priced for corporate purchasers, who have tax amortization advantages.



Aug 25, 2006 at 12:52 PM
dcmiller
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p.45 #20 · p.45 #20 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


Jeff wrote:
Not so sure I agree that (based upon my past and current experiences), they currently have the hottest rear-projection technology out there, and were the first to choose to abandon plasma screens, which will soon die on the vine, despite all the plasma fanboys out there. Their new SXRD sets are about the finest thing out there (IQ-wise), and as with Canon and CMOS sensors, everyone said that LCOS was a dead-before-born technology that couldn't be made to be profitable, nor technologically sound. The SXRD was effectively the first set on the market to (finally) fully exploit the HDTV standard
...Show more


I'm not saying they won't have an impact in the DSLR marketplace. As far as TV's, go in any large store selling TV's at look at the floor space sony has now compared to ten years ago. That is if you can find a sony at all.
I'm still upset about the gawd-awful design of my clock radio



Aug 25, 2006 at 01:19 PM
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