'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

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Archive 2006 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

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p.44 #1 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

Digital FD.

Aug 25, 2006 at 04:02 AM

Buck Forester
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p.44 #2 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

I predict Starbucks will upgrade their paper cup quality while also adding a "Sumo" size to the existing line-up. Also, look for an Arabian Mocha Sanani in a triple-shot decaf version, laden with extra flavor. Exciting times. Also, probably just a rumor, but I've heard Wienerschnitzel may be getting into the pizza business, but probably won't do home deliveries until late 2007.

Aug 25, 2006 at 05:34 AM

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p.44 #3 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

What's expected at Feb? 30D-replacement if due in Aug, right? But what for Feb if not the 1Ds?

Is that due time for 5D-replacement?

Aug 25, 2006 at 05:48 AM

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p.44 #4 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

"I'm surprised that no one has yet extrapolated the pixel density of the 400D into the full-frame (24x36) equivalent."

For what its worth - probably not too much - I did.

Aug 25, 2006 at 06:02 AM

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p.44 #5 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

DaDane wrote:
What's expected at Feb? 30D-replacement if due in Aug, right? But what for Feb if not the 1Ds?

Is that due time for 5D-replacement?
Next Feb, the 30D is only 1 year old, not even its full 18-month time frame yet.

EOS 5D is a 2-year cycle product - the replacement won't be due until next August.

1-series' time-frame on the market can be as short as 18 months (1D MK II to MK II N) to as long as 4 years (the film versions took 6-8 years to be replaced) at Canon's discretion.

Aug 25, 2006 at 06:50 AM

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p.44 #6 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

lordcarl wrote:
DaDane wrote:
What's expected at Feb? 30D-replacement if due in Aug, right? But what for Feb if not the 1Ds?

Is that due time for 5D-replacement?
Next Feb, the 30D is only 1 year old, not even its full 18-month time frame yet.

EOS 5D is a 2-year cycle product - the replacement won't be due until next August.

1-series' time-frame on the market can be as short as 18 months (1D MK II to MK II N) to as long as 4 years (the film versions took 6-8 years to be replaced) at Canon's discretion.

The D60 was replaced by the 10D within a year so it is possible to see the 30D replaced early next year.

As for the 5D being on a 2 year replacement cycle, Who says? Do you have any proof to back up that statement? The 5D is classified as a "Consumer grade" (I hate that term) camera and was designed to provide an affordable full framed camera for the masses!? I really think that the 5D will be replaced some time next year.

Aug 25, 2006 at 07:09 AM

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p.44 #7 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

The D60 came at the same time as Nikon's D100, which blew the former out of the water via the latter's faster AF and other features except image quality and pricing. There was also Fujifilm's S2 Pro to contend with.

Yes, you are right about Canon or anyone else (except me) not officially mentioning that the 5D is a 2-year cycle product - I said this based on Canon's trend in unveiling new products; twice per year, around Jan/Feb (pre-PMA) during the 1st half and Aug/Sept for the 2nd half (either pre-Photokina or pre-PhotoPlus Expo in NYC).

And supposedly, should there be 3 new EOS DSLRs for 2007 - EOS 30D, 5D and 1D-series replacements; which do you think will take the main spotlight and at which part of the year (out of the two periods mentioned) should they be announced by Canon?

Aug 25, 2006 at 07:36 AM

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p.44 #8 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

There is still a chance a new 1 series camera is on the way in a few weeks. There was a leak in the Canon US press release of the Digic III processor, So we may still see another camera or 2 in a few weeks time!

Aug 25, 2006 at 07:47 AM

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p.44 #9 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

EOS20 wrote:

The D60 was replaced by the 10D within a year so it is possible to see the 30D replaced early next year.

As for the 5D being on a 2 year replacement cycle, Who says? Do you have any proof to back up that statement? The 5D is classified as a "Consumer grade" (I hate that term) camera and was designed to provide an affordable full framed camera for the masses!? I really think that the 5D will be replaced some time next year.

There's a very good chance that the 30D, along with the 1D IIN will see a shorter lifespan this time around. Both were minor upgrades, set as place-fillers while Canon continued developing the next generation of processors and sensors. I suspect that the 5D won't go 2 years this time around either.

It's even possible that we'll see a 30D replacement before the end of the year.

Aug 25, 2006 at 07:51 AM

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p.44 #10 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

I wonder if Canon is going to make a 1D Mk III or if it will be merged with the 1Ds2?

Its going to be intresting when the new 1 series camera (Which ever it is) is anounced and which path Canon chooses to take.

Aug 25, 2006 at 07:56 AM

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p.44 #11 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

For me they have a choice of a quick fix 1Ds II N - which would be the same camera but with 2.5 inch screen, picture styles eetc - like the N version of the 1D II, or hold on for a DIGIC III 22MP or above super camera...
..no idea what they are planning of course.

Aug 25, 2006 at 09:09 AM

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p.44 #12 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

All this talk of merging the 1 series doesn't make much sense. I know that Canon have stated that as their desire, but think about it.

Current 1DIIN users (sports/journalists) bought that camera for a reason, rather than the 1Ds. It was for speed/crop/price, A combined 1 series is going to be extremely expensive - sure it may have a high speed crop mode, but your going to pay an awful lot for stuff you don't need/use.

This doesn't make marketing sense to me.

Aug 25, 2006 at 09:27 AM

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p.44 #13 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

markshaxted wrote:
All this talk of merging the 1 series doesn't make much sense. I know that Canon have stated that as their desire, but think about it.

Current 1DIIN users (sports/journalists) bought that camera for a reason, rather than the 1Ds. It was for speed/crop/price, A combined 1 series is going to be extremely expensive - sure it may have a high speed crop mode, but your going to pay an awful lot for stuff you don't need/use.

This doesn't make marketing sense to me.
That's what Canon thought too. Until it found out the majority of the sports photographers who shoot Formula One racing, bike racing, soccer, etc. prefer the 1Ds MK II over the 1D/1D MK II. Most Canon shooters for Nat Geo also choose the 1Ds MK II or 5D over the high-speed 1D-versions. Sports Illustrated's Walter Iooss Jr. has two 1Ds MK II as his travelling companion in addition to 1D MK II bodies.

The photographers' logic: Full-frame over high-speed.

It is only the news/paparazzi types prefering to choose the high-speed version over the 16.7MP camera.

Aug 25, 2006 at 10:24 AM

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p.44 #14 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

markshaxted wrote:
All this talk of merging the 1 series doesn't make much sense. I know that Canon have stated that as their desire, but think about it.

Current 1DIIN users (sports/journalists) bought that camera for a reason, rather than the 1Ds. It was for speed/crop/price, A combined 1 series is going to be extremely expensive - sure it may have a high speed crop mode, but your going to pay an awful lot for stuff you don't need/use.

This doesn't make marketing sense to me.

I agree. There is definitely need to provide a high speed, reasonably priced successor for 1 D II N. To make it essentially cheaper than the top-of-line successor of 1Ds II, it must use a cheaper sensor, as hinted also in the recent Canon FF white paper. This is my out-of-sleeve guess of the successors (as already posted on page 108 of this thread):

- FF sensor, 26.5 MP and 5 fps = throughput of about 133 (with equal pixel size than in 400D), with a high speed 1.25 crop mode of 17 MP and 8 fps. High speed crop mode is not compulsory here, but would address the Nikon challenge of "one-high-end-camera-for-all purposes". Price about $10000

- 1.25 crop sensor, about 16.8 MP and 8 fps = throughput of about 135 (with equal pixel size than in 400D). Price about $5000

Aug 25, 2006 at 10:28 AM

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p.44 #15 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

Aug 25, 2006 at 10:28 AM

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p.44 #16 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

I didn't want to mention 3D!

I don't think they'll use the same density as the 400D, though. I'm hoping that 20-22mp, in conjunction with greater DR, is offered. This should (hopefully) filter down to the 30D/5D sensors very quickly.

More DR... PLEASE!

Aug 25, 2006 at 10:39 AM

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p.44 #17 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

I dont want a merger 20+MP 1d series camera. 8mp is more than enought for a sportshooter/PJ like me and i dont want to pay the extra 3000$ for a huge sensor that i dont need, add to the fact that i like the extra reach of the 1.3x.

Canon should come with both 1d mark III and 1ds mark III, because i wont buy a 8000$ 22mp camera. I'll just buy mark II /N... used if i have to.

Simon

Aug 25, 2006 at 11:21 AM

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p.44 #18 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

I might not be a pro photographer but having shot a few motorbike races and other slower stuff I can't see why anyone would want a burst mode? I first used burst mode aswell untill an AP photographer standing next to me told me to stop, to use one-shot instead and try to anticipate the shot, and then click the shutter when you think the car/driver will be in the "sweet spot". My keeper percentage climbed dramatically.

Aug 25, 2006 at 11:27 AM

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p.44 #19 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

I'm still predicting two cameras:

1. 16mp, 24x36mm, 8fps, $4500 (maybe up to $5000 initially)
2. 22mp, 24x36mm, 4fps, $8000 (maybe up to $10000 initially)

I don't think they will waver far from those price points. They've already said that their plan is to make all the pro cameras 24x36mm, and all it should take is DIGIC III (already announced) to push even the current 1Ds sensor to 8fps.

The introduction of the 5D suggests that they have solved most problems with 24x36mm sensors. A more modern design and assembly process should be able to get it down to $4500. People who want smaller file sizes will shoot JPEG (although it might also have a small-file RAW capability, a la Kodak SLR/c).

As has often been noted, they can get better-than-acceptable noise levels from 20D pixel density. The new processor should be able to push that to at least 4fps. I don't see where the technology is lacking for camera 2.

Edited by RDKirk on Aug 25, 2006 at 05:55 PM GMT

Aug 25, 2006 at 11:42 AM

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p.44 #20 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

There's a very good chance that the 30D, along with the 1D IIN will see a shorter lifespan this time around. Both were minor upgrades, set as place-fillers while Canon continued developing the next generation of processors and sensors. I suspect that the 5D won't go 2 years this time around either.

It's even possible that we'll see a 30D replacement before the end of the year.

The 1D IIN was definitely only a "place-filler"....as given by the "N" designation. My belief is that it only got a refresh at what should have been its replacement cycle because a true new model is scheduled for Photokina 2006.

However, the 30D is a true model upgrade judging by the designation, even if people don't think so by the feature set.

I would not consider the fact that earlier cameras were replaced quicker to be indicative of the future. The earlier cameras were both very much more costly and significantly mroe inferior to what Canon was able to produce very soon afterward. They, too, could be considered "place-fillers" like Canon's initial efforts at focus automation...just things shoved into the marketplace quickly to establish a position.

Aug 25, 2006 at 11:48 AM

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