In a recent article on Nikon's quarterly report, Thom Hogan inserted a blurb on Fujifilm that was particularly interesting.
"I know a lot of folk reading this site are interested in Fujifilm’s position in the market. They reported their quarterly results last week. Breaking down their numbers I found that Fujifilm said they sold about 840k X cameras in the previous year (remember, that includes the compact X30 and X100T). Even if we assume that interchangeable lens cameras are half that, it would put them at 1% of the ILC market."
1% market share! i knew that Fujifilm had a low market share. For certain they were at the bottom, but 1%?
Indeed - you could times that by a factor of 8 or so for the Thai market. Now that's just a guess, but Fuji certainly aren't at 1% in my small local pool.
Paul Mo wrote:
Indeed - you could times that by a factor of 8 or so for the Thai market. Now that's just a guess, but Fuji certainly aren't at 1% in my small local pool.
Well Hogan is calculating his numbers from Fujifilm''s world wide sales along with CIPA's world wide sales figures. Of course there deviations from the average in various locations.
In my own case, it would be no problem at all, zero, to try to find 99 other branded cameras for every 1 Fujifilm camera I could find. I'd bet my entire net worth that I could do this. Easily. Of course, that's excluding my own holdings as I own 12 Fujifilm cameras. I'd fail right away if I included myself.
According to the CIPA report for 2014 non-reflex interchangeable camera sales were 3.166.481 units. If half of X-camera sales were interchangeable camera, or about 420.000 cameras it's market share is 13-14% (and about 4.5% including DSLR's)
hauxon wrote:
According to the CIPA report for 2014 non-reflex interchangeable camera sales were 3.166.481 units. If half of X-camera sales were interchangeable camera, or about 420.000 cameras it's market share is 13-14% (and about 4.5% including DSLR's)
Also, my guess is that it's far more than half. The X100T/s sell fairly well, but the X30 isn't exactly a hot seller in comparison to the ILC X series. All of Fuji's reports make note to say how well the X-T1 has sold. My guess is that the ILCs account for at least 2/3 of the Fuji sales, giving them about 17.5% of the mirrorless market for last year, which is pretty darn good. That's got to put them up there with Olympus and Panasonic, as I think Sony had over 50% of the mirrorless market share last year, if I'm remembering correctly. Sure, that's only 4.1% of the total ILC market, but for a small player against Canon and Nikon, which make up by far the biggest chunk, that's not bad at all.
hauxon wrote:
According to the CIPA report for 2014 non-reflex interchangeable camera sales were 3.166.481 units. If half of X-camera sales were interchangeable camera, or about 420.000 cameras it's market share is 13-14% (and about 4.5% including DSLR's)
Jman13 wrote:
Also, my guess is that it's far more than half. The X100T/s sell fairly well, but the X30 isn't exactly a hot seller in comparison to the ILC X series. All of Fuji's reports make note to say how well the X-T1 has sold. My guess is that the ILCs account for at least 2/3 of the Fuji sales, giving them about 17.5% of the mirrorless market for last year, which is pretty darn good. That's got to put them up there with Olympus and Panasonic, as I think Sony had over 50% of the mirrorless market share last year, if I'm remembering correctly. Sure, that's only 4.1% of the total ILC market, but for a small player against Canon and Nikon, which make up by far the biggest chunk, that's not bad at all. ...Show more →
I agree with Hauxon's numbers above, but no way do I think that Fujifilm is anywhere near Olympus or Panasonic. From store presence to observations out in the wild, one can find 20-30 times the amount of micro 4/3rd cameras for each Fuji. At least in China and Japan where I spend 99% of my time. I rarely see more than 1 or 2 Fuji's per day and for many many days see none. That simply doesnt happen with Olympus or Panasonic.
rattymouse wrote:
I agree with Hauxon's numbers above, but no way do I think that Fujifilm is anywhere near Olympus or Panasonic. From store presence to observations out in the wild, one can find 20-30 times the amount of micro 4/3rd cameras for each Fuji. At least in China and Japan where I spend 99% of my time. I rarely see more than 1 or 2 Fuji's per day and for many many days see none. That simply doesnt happen with Olympus or Panasonic.
So you see 40-60 Olympus or Panasonic bodies every day?
I'm not in a photographer's haven, and in the US, mirrorless is a very small market, so any 'this is what I see' is so sparse as to not be statistically significant regarding market share. When I was at Photokina, however, about 30% of the people there were carrying mirrorless bodies. While Sony was the most popular, I saw a lot of Olympus, a lot of Fuji, and a bit less Panasonic. I even saw a few people using Samsung NX bodies and even one guy with an M9 and 50 Noctilux.
Jman13 wrote:
So you see 40-60 Olympus or Panasonic bodies every day?
I'm not in a photographer's haven, and in the US, mirrorless is a very small market, so any 'this is what I see' is so sparse as to not be statistically significant regarding market share. When I was at Photokina, however, about 30% of the people there were carrying mirrorless bodies. While Sony was the most popular, I saw a lot of Olympus, a lot of Fuji, and a bit less Panasonic. I even saw a few people using Samsung NX bodies and even one guy with an M9 and 50 Noctilux. ...Show more →
Not every day, but when I'm out shooting, finding 50 u4/3rd cameras (and Sony) is pretty easy here in Asia due to the HUGE crowds of people nearly everywhere you go. That's why I trust my observations as being potentially significant. (I'd have to actually record my findings to confirm everything; I dont take it that far).
I'm not sure if I've ever seen a Samsung NX in the wild. During my last trip to Suzhou at one of the classical gardens I did see a Chinese guy walking around with a Leica. Not too rare here in China, as there's such enormous wealth here in the Shanghai area.
Paul Mo wrote:
Indeed - you could times that by a factor of 8 or so for the Thai market. Now that's just a guess, but Fuji certainly aren't at 1% in my small local pool.
Numbers aside, who makes up your pool? I'd guess that the marketshare of Fuji owners at FM is higher than 1%, but we're also Fuji's target market, way more so than the general public.
I think these numbers can surprise us because of that. The math might be wrong, I don't know, but I don't think enthusiast circles provide a great basis for comparison.
arduluth wrote:
Numbers aside, who makes up your pool? I'd guess that the marketshare of Fuji owners at FM is higher than 1%, but we're also Fuji's target market, way more so than the general public.
I think these numbers can surprise us because of that. The math might be wrong, I don't know, but I don't think enthusiast circles provide a great basis for comparison.
Numbers from CIPA and Fuji take the guess work out of things. They just don't add up to 1%.
chez wrote:
Numbers from CIPA and Fuji take the guess work out of things. They just don't add up to 1%.
True. I dont see how Thom Hogan reached his 1% conclusion. I wrote to him about this and I hope that he gets back to me or issues a correction on his web page.
arduluth wrote:
Numbers aside, who makes up your pool? I'd guess that the marketshare of Fuji owners at FM is higher than 1%, but we're also Fuji's target market, way more so than the general public.
I think these numbers can surprise us because of that. The math might be wrong, I don't know, but I don't think enthusiast circles provide a great basis for comparison.
Groups can vary pretty wildly between locations.
I'm a member of a LARGE photowalks group, we walk bimonthly in large urban area and generally have 40-50 people per walk, from an active membership in the 200-300 range.
If you took this group as a sample, you'd think that Olympus is the #2 camera vendor, since we have a huge Oly contingent (the E-M1 is the most popular single camera in the group, and Oly's in general second to Canon), with Nikon and Panasonic tied for 3rd place and Sony way in the back and rivaling Pentax (Fuji's somewhat more popular than Sony in the group).
Obviously we aren't representative of the market as a whole.
arduluth wrote:
Numbers aside, who makes up your pool? I'd guess that the marketshare of Fuji owners at FM is higher than 1%, but we're also Fuji's target market, way more so than the general public.
I think these numbers can surprise us because of that. The math might be wrong, I don't know, but I don't think enthusiast circles provide a great basis for comparison.
Asian urbanites, high school and university students - hobbyists wanting to elevate imagery beyond the smartphone. Those who enjoy photography and camera ownership. Victims of Fuji's savvy marketing.
Given that Sony has 40-60% of the mirrorless market, this 13-17% for Fuji doesn't add up. Depending on what number you attribute to Sony, the rest of the market divides 40-60% between all of them (including Nikon and Canon). My guess is that Olympus still has a bigger share than Fuji, but they are not growing that share anymore. Also, if you give Nikon 5-10%, that really leave a small pie across all the rest. My guess is Fuji has single digit percentages and growing.
sflxn wrote:
Given that Sony has 40-60% of the mirrorless market, this 13-17% for Fuji doesn't add up. Depending on what number you attribute to Sony, the rest of the market divides 40-60% between all of them (including Nikon and Canon). My guess is that Olympus still has a bigger share than Fuji, but they are not growing that share anymore. Also, if you give Nikon 5-10%, that really leave a small pie across all the rest. My guess is Fuji has single digit percentages and growing.
There's no question that Olympus has a far bigger market share than Fuji. I'd have to defy every last bit of obervational data to believe otherwise.
I've read in the recent past that Fujifilm had a 4% market share, but again, no idea how the number was calculated.
Thom wrote back and clarified that his calculation is based off of the entire IL camera market, not just mirrorless. Although I still get a 3% market share result so it's still not agreeing with his 1%.
Makes sense in that DSLR's and mirrorless IL cameras are in competition with each other so ranking their market share is not out of line.
Also he wrote, "I’ve not seen a single market share report anywhere that indicates that Fujifilm has hit even 10% of the mirrorless market. Not even in Japan, where mirrorless tends to sell well."
