PetKal wrote:
Yes indeed, the prices always drop: from obscene to merely outrageous, so that great times could be had by all who have multi thousand $$ budgets even for fairly ordinary gears.
Not sure what you mean and why you react this way on my statement. Maybe I have to give a recent example in my case: After the 5D III was released, prices for the 5D II dropped, an even better, Canon sold refurbished ones for good deals (I bought my second body this way). So my point is: even if a new high MP full frame camera comes, you don't need to go for it - but you might get other predecessor models for a very good deal then.
It sounds like you expect the new camera to be a 5DIII with 35+ MP. Personally, I can't see that happening anytime soon. If Canon does feel the need to react to the D800, and I'm not convinced they need to, they are not going to do so in a way that compromises the value of existing, new products. If that was their strategy they would not have released the 5D III. Don't forget that the D800 was a not a surprise. We all knew about it before the 5D III specs were public so they wouldn't release that in March if they thought they were going to make it obsolete in September. That's not good business. Personally, I don't think Canon is at all rattled by Nikon. I'm not commenting on whether or not they should be, just that I don't think they are. Canon are still way ahead of Nikon in terms of market share - and that seems to be their current strategy.
I know a lot of photographers, amateur and professional, Nikon and Canon, and not one of them has indicated that they are even slightly tempted to change brand. For that matter, none of the Nikon users has indicated that they plan to buy a D800 until they have some other reason to buy a new body. None of this is relevant in terms of first time buyers but, realistically, how many of them are going to enter the market by purchasing a 5D or D800.
That doesn't mean no one is changing or upgrading but it does lead me to believe that megapix acquisition is not driving many people.
coranda wrote:
It sounds like you expect the new camera to be a 5DIII with 35+ MP. Personally, I can't see that happening anytime soon. If Canon does feel the need to react to the D800, and I'm not convinced they need to, they are not going to do so in a way that compromises the value of existing, new products. If that was their strategy they would not have released the 5D III. Don't forget that the D800 was a not a surprise. We all knew about it before the 5D III specs were public so they wouldn't release that in March if they thought they were going to make it obsolete in September. That's not good business. Personally, I don't think Canon is at all rattled by Nikon. I'm not commenting on whether or not they should be, just that I don't think they are. Canon are still way ahead of Nikon in terms of market share - and that seems to be their current strategy.
I know a lot of photographers, amateur and professional, Nikon and Canon, and not one of them has indicated that they are even slightly tempted to change brand. For that matter, none of the Nikon users has indicated that they plan to buy a D800 until they have some other reason to buy a new body. None of this is relevant in terms of first time buyers but, realistically, how many of them are going to enter the market by purchasing a 5D or D800.
That doesn't mean no one is changing or upgrading but it does lead me to believe that megapix acquisition is not driving many people....Show more →
Your opinion granted, but I disagree in many of your points. Out of about 30 photographers (with the majority being Canon shooters) I know two Nikon shooters who recently bought and got the D800, and two others have them in back order. In this group only one Canon shooter recently upgraded to the 5D III, three of them to the 5D II instead. None of them changed brands - a trend which I mentioned in my post earlier, too.
The D800 was a big surprise for Canon, it blew them out of the water so to speak. For many (granted not for wedding photographers often) the 5D III was/is seen as a "lame duck" next to it since its sensor was not improved a lot. Many Canon shooters told me in conversations that they would only upgrade a camera for a new more powerful sensor as being the heart of the camera (which is not the AF system).
You are right that a new high MP 5D camera would harm the sales of the current 5D III. But I believe that Canon needs to make this move to cope with the strong competition. It will be a strategic move for Canon. But let's see what happens - definitely exciting times!
Imo there will come a cheap intro FF from both companies this year. Nikon will bring their D600. And Canon will bring the 7D follow up as an cheaper FF intro, too. I would be surprised, if Canon would bring another high MP FF this year.
I saw a thread hier concerning japanese DSLR sales in the first half of 2012. If those numbers where right and those sales could be seen as a mirror to worldwide sales, Nikons D800 did not change anything (positiv) for Nikon but the oposite - D800 hype in the internet does not say anything based on those sale numbers.
But to come back to the topic. I would love a 4500 Euro price tag for 1D X.
Ralph
Addition for retrofocus:
I know many Canon shooters, too. Like me (5D II) who not already used them all wished a sensor/IQ of 5D II. None of them asked for higher resolution. None of them for better DR. Some (like me) asked for higher usable ISO and less banding and all of them (except me) for a better AF system.
All got offered, what they wished, except me (I got some more, I guess).
Those Nikon shooters I know loved and still love their D3, D3s, D700 and all just wished a 5D II like resolution. None of them has upgraded to a D800 yet.
Well, at the end of the day, I'm just expressing an opinion. I don't have any information that isn't publicly available. But there are a couple of things I do believe:
A company the size of Canon in an industry like this is never surprised by the technology released by their competitors. To me, the claim that the D800 surprised Canon is just not plausible.
Secondly, people who are primarily photographers are not driven by technological developments unless it clearly improves their images, and for most people (but not all) megapix is not a significant factor anymore. Now it's true that a lot of people who buy this level of equipment are driven by having the latest toy (I'm certainly guilty of that) and that might well be a large portion of the market. However, the reason I don't think Canon are particularly concerned is that existing users are largely locked in and very few new adopters are entering the market at the 5D/D800 level. This is why I think all the talk of an entry level full-frame Canon is interesting. This seems like a good strategy to grow (or maintain) market share with new DSLR customers - who are less likely to pay $3000+ for a camera that doesn't even come with a lens.
But, it's all just one person's best-guess view based on incomplete information.
Coranda, I agree with you and Ralph in regard to the entry level full frame camera. Also you are right in regard that people want to have the latest toy - it is not so much about the real world difference in the prints later and if the high MP count really is needed. And yes, new camera adopters unlikely will buy a $3K priced camera in the beginning, too.
Ralph, as Coranda pointed out above, yes, we all have an incomplete set of information since the data we collect are very narrowed down to the group of people we know. You see, we both just made the opposite experience there! It will be interesting to read in a couple of months or next year how the D800 really sold in terms compared to the 5D III. Until then we can only guess.
If a S version of the 1D X comes out it'll be in the $9k to $10k range, I think. Unless they really cut back on the frills and just jack up the MP count ala the D800, then I could see it being in the $7k range.
Retro, If I understand you correctly, you are expecting the 5D III price to drop substantially because you believe Canon were caught off guard and made a mistake. I suppose my position is that:
1. I don't believe they were caught off guard.
2. But, even if they were, they would not want to admit it so they will react in a way that does not devalue the 5D III or 1DX. Saving face is important in the corporate world - particularly in Japan.
Retro is just an unhappy guy since he doesn't get his cheap 30+MP Canon camera and he doesn't need AF since he only shoots landscapes. His Canon friends mostly shoot landscapes too. Wisely he said ALL the Canon photographers don't need AF improvements only the sensor would they care. Well I'll tell you Retro it doesn't mean jack if it can't focus like your 5D II .
Oh yeah make sure Canon you have that 30+MP cheap like $2000 or Retro will yap yap yap yap .
Canon quietly developed their Mirrorless camera and extra lenses. I would think that they also have a high resolution DSLR in its finishing stages but has been kept VERY quiet. That was not the case with the 1DX which was kinda an expected upgrade (ditto with the 5D3) due to the Olympics and the sub-par AF performance of their current lineup before those 2 cameras.
I still think the 5D3 is a better camera as a whole (AF, design, menus, features, video etc) than the D800 BUT the D800 does have more resolution and clean shadow detail.
Im pretty certain a 1DXS is coming soon. But forget about a 5D4 until at the very least the next photokina 2 years from now.
My guess (and it is just a guess) is that, if Canon have a high-res sensor ready to roll, it will go into a camera that doesn't devalue the current 5 and 1 series. That way they can say to the market, "See, we can do it too". Then, rather than waiting 3 to 4 years for a 5D upgrade, it will come in 18 months to 2 years - if the D800 demonstrates that hi-res is a market winner at that level.
dld542004 wrote:
Wait till I tell my wife Ihad to get the 1DX because it was $50 off!!!
Hmm, I had to explain the inadequacies of the pending 1DX to my wife to justify getting the 5DIII and a couple of new lenses so I think it's going to take more than a $50 discount to dig me out of that hole.
retrofocus wrote:
Not sure what you mean and why you react this way on my statement. Maybe I have to give a recent example in my case: After the 5D III was released, prices for the 5D II dropped, an even better, Canon sold refurbished ones for good deals (I bought my second body this way). So my point is: even if a new high MP full frame camera comes, you don't need to go for it - but you might get other predecessor models for a very good deal then.
Sorry Retrofocus, just a sentence in your post triggered my statement of general sentiment whereby I dislike the preponderance of consumer mentality everywhere...where any price drop is construed as a "deal", where $50 off a $6,799 camera is considered a meaningful inducement, where a mere mention of a "faux" rebate makes people salivate....etc. However, that is a much bigger phenomenon that this topic.
kewlcanon wrote:
Retro is just an unhappy guy since he doesn't get his cheap 30+MP Canon camera and he doesn't need AF since he only shoots landscapes. His Canon friends mostly shoot landscapes too. Wisely he said ALL the Canon photographers don't need AF improvements only the sensor would they care. Well I'll tell you Retro it doesn't mean jack if it can't focus like your 5D II .
Oh yeah make sure Canon you have that 30+MP cheap like $2000 or Retro will yap yap yap yap .
Fortunately I am very happy - I couldn't be more satisfied with my current gear! If you don't like my opinion, this is okay - this is a discussion group, so people have all kind of point of views. And I am by far not a landscape shooter only - the only thing I do not do is wedding and studio photography. If you read my posts above, I told clearly where I got my - admittedly limited - information from. And I did not mention anything earlier about a pricing of a potential future high MP 5D - if you ask me, my guess would be slightly higher than the current D800 but certainly more than $2K!
PetKal wrote:
Sorry Retrofocus, just a sentence in your post triggered my statement of general sentiment whereby I dislike the preponderance of consumer mentality everywhere...where any price drop is construed as a "deal", where $50 off a $6,799 camera is considered a meaningful inducement, where a mere mention of a "faux" rebate makes people salivate....etc. However, that is a much bigger phenomenon that this topic.
Okay, now this this makes sense! Agree with you here
Sneakyracer wrote:
I still think the 5D3 is a better camera as a whole (AF, design, menus, features, video etc) than the D800 BUT the D800 does have more resolution and clean shadow detail.
Im pretty certain a 1DXS is coming soon. But forget about a 5D4 until at the very least the next photokina 2 years from now.
The point is, they merged the two lines.
That means, they got the technical know how and capabilities to make a sports camera full frame.
What should prevent them now to put a 45 MP FF sensor into exactly this same body? It would just mean a slower frame rate. That could be done without any problem at the same pricing imo, too.
So in the future Canon photographers have the choice to go 1D X or 1D X HR if they need higher resolution. Everything else is the same. That might have been already planed with a 36MP sensor, but of course D800 creates a less bigger future for this. The comming body imo will offer even more MP.
1D X is a nice kick in the goolies for those that used to be able to swing enough money for the 1.3x crop 1 series and had no interest in the obscenely overpriced FF models. 1D X may be better value than the 1Ds models, but that's not saying much.
Ralph Conway wrote:
The point is, they merged the two lines.
That means, they got the technical know how and capabilities to make a sports camera full frame.
What should prevent them now to put a 45 MP FF sensor into exactly this same body? It would just mean a slower framerate. That could be done without any problem at the same pricing imo, too.
So in the futur Canon photographers have the choice to go 1D X or 1D X HR if they need higher resolution. Everything else is the same. That might have been already planed with a 36MP sensor, but of course D800 creates a less bigger future for this. The comming body imo will offer even more MP.
coranda wrote:
Well, at the end of the day, I'm just expressing an opinion. I don't have any information that isn't publicly available. But there are a couple of things I do believe:
A company the size of Canon in an industry like this is never surprised by the technology released by their competitors. To me, the claim that the D800 surprised Canon is just not plausible.
But, it's all just one person's best-guess view based on incomplete information.
I disagree, D3 and D700 completely caught them off guard and it's taken several years for them to get back on similar footing with the D4 in the 1D X and they have no answer whatsoever to Sony's sensor tech at the moment. The 1D X was designed for one sole purpose, to regain the crown as maker of ultimate camera, no matter what it took.
