RDKirk wrote:
But did (or could) Canon predict in 2003 or 2004 that they could produce a profitable $1200-$1500 24x36mm camera by 2010? We don't know even now if they actually can.
There is always a used market willing to accept older technology--heck, there is a used market for D30s...that doesn't mean it would be profitable for Canon to continue to produce D30s.
This assumes that Canon refuses to adapt and change to suit the market or that they're a slow and laborious beast. I find that difficult to believe considering that within the past 1.5 years, THREE different Rebels have been released.
For instance, let us accept that Canon does utilize a 5-year development cycle, meaning that Canon conceives and develops cameras meant for release 5 years ahead of time. This would mean that in early 2003, the following cameras were somewhere in the development process: Digital Rebel, Rebel XT, Rebel XTi, Rebel XSi, Rebel XS, 20D, 30D, 40D, 1DS2, 1D2, 1DS3, 1D3 and 5D all at the same time. Each Camera I listed was released in 2003-2008, which falls within the so-called 5-year development cycle. I find it difficult to believe that incremental updates of these cameras would require multiple years of constant R&D and that you could have 3 generations of cameras in development at the same time.
It may have taken a long time to develop the original Rebel or the original 5D, but once you design the base standard, it doesn't require an entire re-design to move on to the next model. e.g., the 40D and 50D look almost identical on the front and the design of the rear is very similar.