According to a thread on dpreview, and the OP seems to know what he's talking about, one new camera from Nikon at PMA will be an upgraded D40 with a 10MP chip, probably because the supply of the 6MP chip is drying up. Interestingly, Nikon had a 49.9% DSLR market share in Japan in January, mostly due to the D40 and D80 models, both of them cheaper than the competing Canons (400D and 30D). Here's the statistics:
FWIW, jeff-c has been extremely accurate in his predictions. To my recollection he's never made a statement on a Nikon model that wasn't borne out and he doesn't engage in rumor-mongering.
Which means that if you want the cleanest 6MP shooter out there...better grab one while you can
