I saw this, thanks for posting for wider circulation. Interesting he speaks confidently of DJI's postive impact on Hasselblad. AI - enthusiasts may become the backbone of photography in short order. How to stop it, at least in stills photography? Why did Leica feel they should say this? :
from recent interivew Dietmar Struble with Bobby Tonelli
That guy will do anything for clicks. If he really thought the industry is about to collapse, he’d be busy finding a new job instead of making videos that are dependent on said industry.
His nonsense was debunked several times over the years. But isn't his job about working for the Google U-Tube? If the industry collapses there should be a lot of cheap gear around.
Northrupt is probably the worst source anyone can reference. Strictly does what ever he can to gain clicks and could care less if what he is saying has any validity. I have and will continue to avoid his efforts.
Yeah, Tony's click-bait titles and news sensationalism and exaggeration can really be annoying; however, I'm not throwing the "baby out with the bath water". There might be some underlying truths, here.
Camera sales have been continuously falling for a number of years, partly due to smartphones. There is little question that AI content generation will displace real photography, to some degree. I have a lot of professional photographer friends and their businesses continue to shrink, year after year.
It really hit home for me a couple weeks ago. My wife asked if I could take some portrait headshots of her for her business. I started to think about which studio backgrounds and strobes/modifiers I would use. Later that day, she said she no longer needed the shots. She took a selfie with her phone, then sent the image to an AI processor. They sent back 30 images with different backgrounds, etc. They looked great. While as a photographer I could tell they were AI manipulated, I would guess that most folks would never know. This is just a hobby for me, but if I was a pro, and she was a potential client, this could have been a situation where I lost income.
I am starting to see on social platforms where non-photographers are starting to post some fairly sophisticated images that previously would have taken a Photoshop expert to create. This movement is growing and AI image manipulation/generation is growing more realistic at an astounding rate. On YouTube, I'm starting to see videos where I need a really discerning eye to see that they were AI generated. In a year, or two, I would guess that the technology will improve to where it will be really tough to distinguish real from fake.
IMHO, to think that all this will not impact the sale of cameras/lenses is just burying our heads in the sand. Tony may not be completely correct in his proclamations, but he may not be completely wrong, either.
Tony isn't horrible, most of us just arent' his target audience. It is obvious that he comes from a software product marketing background who then transitioned into photography book-writing and content maker fulltime. He loves to tinker with product and brand competitive analysis, and make predictions.
Also, newly divorced from Chelsea, and moved to New York...
But come on, anything he says is obvious. Of course, AI will have a huge impact photography, video and content creation. High end clients will always pay for authentic professional work, but forget about the low to mid market SMB/Enterprise market. Some boat manufacturer in Spain looking for a new video for YT or photos for a broschure or campaign will surely no longer pay for a pro photographer but will have AI generate the images and it will be good enough.
InFocus2014 wrote:
Yeah, Tony's click-bate titles and news sensationalism and exaggeration can really be annoying; however, I'm not throwing the "baby out with the bath water". There might be some underlying truths, here.
Camera sales have been continuously falling for a number of years, partly due to smartphones. There is little question that AI content generation will displace real photography, to some degree. I have a lot of professional photographer friends and their businesses continue to shrink, year after year.
It really hit home for me a couple weeks ago. My wife asked if I could take some portrait headshots of her for her business. I started to think about which studio backgrounds and strobes/modifiers I would use. Later that day, she said she no longer needed the shots. She took a selfie with her phone, then sent the image to an AI processor. They sent back 30 images with different backgrounds, etc. They looked great. While as a photographer I could tell they were AI manipulated, I would guess that most folks would never know. This is just a hobby for me, but if I was a pro, and she was a potential client, this could have been a situation where I lost income.
I am starting to see on social platforms where non-photographers are starting to post some fairly sophisticated images that previously would have taken a Photoshop expert to create. This movement is growing and AI image manipulation/generation is growing more realistic at an astounding rate. On YouTube, I'm starting to see videos where I need a really discerning eye to see that they were AI generated. In a year, or two, I would guess that the technology will improve to where it will be really tough to distinguish real from fake.
IMHO, to think that all this will not impact the sale of cameras/lenses is just burying our heads in the sand. Tony may not be completely correct in his proclamations, but he may not be completely wrong, either.
Of course, but you know they stopped painting ads on billboards long ago too. The profession will shrink, so the demand for pro gear will shrink. But the hobby will continue and it will keep a lot of people in business producing stuff for those hobbyists. Also, we can expect a backlash against fake stuff (cause AI images are fake in terms of not resembling actual reality) and efforts to make the distinction clear (eg news, passport photos, weddings, products etc.). That too will create opportunities. And in terms of people taking pictures, there has never been a time when people took as many images as today.
InFocus2014 wrote:
Yeah, Tony's click-bate titles and news sensationalism and exaggeration can really be annoying; however, I'm not throwing the "baby out with the bath water". There might be some underlying truths, here.
Camera sales have been continuously falling for a number of years, partly due to smartphones. There is little question that AI content generation will displace real photography, to some degree. I have a lot of professional photographer friends and their businesses continue to shrink, year after year.
It really hit home for me a couple weeks ago. My wife asked if I could take some portrait headshots of her for her business. I started to think about which studio backgrounds and strobes/modifiers I would use. Later that day, she said she no longer needed the shots. She took a selfie with her phone, then sent the image to an AI processor. They sent back 30 images with different backgrounds, etc. They looked great. While as a photographer I could tell they were AI manipulated, I would guess that most folks would never know. This is just a hobby for me, but if I was a pro, and she was a potential client, this could have been a situation where I lost income.
I am starting to see on social platforms where non-photographers are starting to post some fairly sophisticated images that previously would have taken a Photoshop expert to create. This movement is growing and AI image manipulation/generation is growing more realistic at an astounding rate. On YouTube, I'm starting to see videos where I need a really discerning eye to see that they were AI generated. In a year, or two, I would guess that the technology will improve to where it will be really tough to distinguish real from fake.
IMHO, to think that all this will not impact the sale of cameras/lenses is just burying our heads in the sand. Tony may not be completely correct in his proclamations, but he may not be completely wrong, either.
I think AI will change photography, but it certainly won't eliminate it and might even expand it. Commercial applications that feature studio work are most likely to be affected by a compression of the number of people who work in the industry as AI makes high quality production easier and faster.
In other areas, AI will have an enhancing effect. For example, if you are doing any version of documentary photography--anything from family photos to event photography to travel to photojournalism--AI is likely to enhance the work and the final product, for example through computational photography. The AI tools in Lightroom Classic, for example, have vastly improved my use of masking and local adjustments in working with my images. If the point is to document, false images are useless.
Just as photography had an effect on but did not eliminate painting, AI will affect but not eliminate photography.
It might even expand interest in photography by providing more tools and variability and improving the ease of obtaining high quality outcomes without the drudgery that used to be associated with skilled retouching of images. If the technical aspects of photography get easier, more people will want to do it and will do it well--the prevalence of iPhones, for example, has dramatically expanded photography. The emphasis will fall on aesthetic differences in photographs and on how effective they are as meaningful images.
AI cannot move a penny two inches to the left on your desk. All those things requiring human activity and creativity will remain outside the powers of AI. Good wedding photographers, for instance, will always be in demand.
chiron wrote:
I think AI will change photography, but it certainly won't eliminate it and might even expand it. Commercial applications that feature studio work are most likely to be affected by a compression of the number of people who work in the industry as AI makes high quality production easier and faster.
In other areas, AI will have an enhancing effect. For example, if you are doing any version of documentary photography--anything from family photos to event photography to travel to photojournalism--AI is likely to enhance the work and the final product, for example through computational photography. The AI tools in Lightroom Classic, for example, have vastly improved my use of masking and local adjustments in working with my images. If the point is to document, false images are useless.
Just as photography had an effect on but did not eliminate painting, AI will affect but not eliminate photography.
It might even expand interest in photography by providing more tools and variability and improving the ease of obtaining high quality outcomes without the drudgery that used to be associated with skilled retouching of images. If the technical aspects of photography get easier, more people will want to do it and will do it well--the prevalence of iPhones, for example, has dramatically expanded photography. The emphasis will fall on aesthetic differences in photographs and on how effective they are as meaningful images. ...Show more →
When people see that real image you enhanced with AI, it'll be "too good" and they'll just dismiss the whole thing as AI generated. GenZ likes crap photos. Wedding photographers should trade all their gear and technique for a Rebel XT with a kit lens and a popup flash if want to keep shooting. Anything better looking is "sus".
It's coming, it's going to be worse than you think, and there is nothing you can do to stop it. It's going to impact every corner of the world, and in my opinion, decimate MUCH of the professional photography industry. Hobbyist will be fine, if companies survive the fallout from the professional side.
I believe within the next 2 years (honestly sooner probably) for my line of work (senior portraits, sport portraits, pro team / college / high school media days) people will be taking 2 or 3 photos with their cell phones (as source material for AI) and generating whatever they want, however they want, for pennies on the dollar. Hell, the apps will be free and ad space sold. I bet 85% of the industry will be gutted.
Of course there will be some people that want "the real thing", but the average Joe and businesses with the bottom line in mind won't give give a damn. Wedding industry? Decimated. 85% of wedding photogs will be replaced with an app. People are already having guests take pics with their cell phones and upload them to a wedding gallery, instead of hiring a photographer. There is your source material for AI.
BigBabyMoses06 wrote:
It's coming, it's going to be worse than you think, and there is nothing you can do to stop it. It's going to impact every corner of the world, and in my opinion, decimate MUCH of the professional photography industry. Hobbyist will be fine, if companies survive the fallout from the professional side.
I believe within the next 2 years (honestly sooner probably) for my line of work (senior portraits, sport portraits, pro team / college / high school media days) people will be taking 2 or 3 photos with their cell phones (as source material for AI) and generating whatever they want, however they want, for pennies on the dollar. Hell, the apps will be free and ad space sold. I bet 85% of the industry will be gutted.
Of course there will be some people that want "the real thing", but the average Joe and businesses with the bottom line in mind won't give give a damn. Wedding industry? Decimated. 85% of wedding photogs will be replaced with an app. People are already having guests take pics with their cell phones and upload them to a wedding gallery, instead of hiring a photographer. There is your source material for AI.
Picture day at elementary school will consist of your teacher knocking out 30 cell phone shots and uploading them over recess. By lunch they'll have 30 blue backdrop images with perfect smiles and combed hair.
The same technology that brought you digital cameras and modern lens design is now bringing you "AI" or machine learning as there is no real intelligence in it. I like how "AI" has enhanced Photoshop's editing tools, but they're under my control. OTOH I'm not a pro photographer and very glad I'm now a retired software engineer. Change is accelerating.
BigBabyMoses06 wrote:
It's coming, it's going to be worse than you think, and there is nothing you can do to stop it. Of course there will be some people that want "the real thing", but the average Joe and businesses with the bottom line in mind won't give give a damn.
The enshitification of society is already well underway; but there will be plenty of people that see through that. I see the same thing in my field (engineering). Competitive companies after all in on AI and outsourcing to India; and then engineers are left cleaning up the mess all in a race to the bottom. Resulting in infrastructure project going over budget and deadlines being a thing of the past.
AI doesn't bother me personally in photography. I take pictures because I enjoy taking pictures and capturing the memory. If I wanted to fake something then what's the point? Why travel if you just wanted the travel pictures and didn't care about experiencing anything?
Sure, I use AI denoising and AI fixes in my pictures to help me get rid of unwanted elements but I don't generate whole pictures. To each their own of course, but I know my limit.
The history of photography has always been one of technological advancement with each major advancement threatening to be the "death of photography". I've lived through a couple, the most notable being the transition from film photography to digital. I've also lived through several transitions in my architectural profession as digital technologies revolutionize how we design and construct buildings. Overall, most AI advances center on reducing repetitive or time intensive tasks. Does this empower folks with lesser skill sets? Absolutely, but they also don't replace the ability to see and capture a moment and tell a story. It's true that technologic advances often result in a reduction or shifting of the number of professionals, however, rarely affects those who choose photography as an avocation because of a love of the art. I believe this is why we see a rise of film photography, because that approach is more authentic as an art form. (Using Benjamin's definition here).
Digital photography killed professional photography. More than AI is ever gonna, just not much left. Doesn't seem to be anywhere near as many jobs (newspaper, magazine, portrait studio etc,) seems like there's hardly any pros on here compared to years ago.
And camera stores made their money off film processing, so most of them closed. Did they even sell a camera every day?
Reading the fine print on a car ad on TV, think it said something like "this place doesn't actually exist, " so probably AI. But someone still has to shoot photos of the wedding, at the wedding, etc so I don't really see AI replacing that.
