p.17 #1 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
You keep posting all these stats but you’re failing to realize that 3rd party lenses are EXTREMELY popular in Sony FE mount.
The days of Rebels are over. All that’s left are enthusiasts and pros. And we like options! Not all of us want to drop $2k on an 85mm prime.
Tamron, for example, is having record years. It’s Canon that’s going to be left in the dust if they keep up this mindset. Sony is No. 1 in mirrorless by a large margin.
dolina wrote:
Before name calling understand the numbers.
Canon tolerated reverse engineering as SLR & dSLR sales from 1987, the year EF mount was released, grew and peaked in 2012.
The last decade has dSLR sales tumble YoY because consumer dSLRs were being out competed by smartphones. This is more pronounced in point & shoot global shipping numbers.
So it isn't unsurprising that Canon being #1 in ILCs will be territorial in a shrinking market.
This tells me that a typical consumer EF system owner will buy a Rebel + kit lens that will never be detached from the body. This will only be replaced if it is too expensive to repair or isn't fashionable anymore. Odds are the replacement may be a smartphone as utility is higher, easier to buy on a carrrier plan of 2-4 years and you'll never leave it at home.
Canon licensing out the RF mount to 3rd parties before they rolled out their complete RF lens line up will negatively impact their bottom line as not everyone have the $$$ or the inclination to upgrade from 3rd party lenses when 1st party lens equivalents come out.
Canon & any 1st party maker wants the 1st lens sale.
So say yesterday Sigma released a E, RF or Z mount
Will E, RF or Z body owners get the Sony, Canon or Nikon SKUs within the next 5-10 years?
I think of it as buying a car. Unless you get a windfall odds are you'll keep the car until it isn't economical to repair further.
Only on forums do you see a concentration of serial upgraders so it comes across as "normal" when everyone else sees it as as addiction to glass.
This is why pointing out CIPA global shipping numbers frames the conversation on what is actually happening.
I would not hold my breath but the earliest I can see Canon considering licensing the RF mount would be late 2020s or even into the 2030s. It is more likely they'll tolerate 3rd parties with partially functioning lenses like what they did with the EF mount.
FujiFILM, that I believe has the dominant APS-C mirrorless camera body market share with 6 bodies, only selectively licensed their 2012 X-mount in 2020. My guess is they've hit a wall in 1st party lens sales and want to now appeal to buyers who prioritize 3rd party lenses.
I love 3rd parties and competition. What is critical for me is that they innovate and output pioneering focal lengths & apertures so they prove the market viability of the lens SKU.
I credit Sigma & Tamron for proving the saleability of long-slow super teles like the 150-600mm f/5-6.3 that Tamron first released in 2013. It ranges in price between $900-2230.
It inspired these relatively cheap & light weight long-slow lenses
Canon
- $20k RF 1200mm f/8 L IS USM
- $2.9k RF 100-500mm f/4.5-7.1 L IS USM
- $900 RF 800mm f/11 IS STM
- $700 RF 600mm f/11 IS STM
Nikon
- $6.5k Z 800mm f/6.3 VR S
- $3.25k Z 400mm f/4.5 VR S
- $1.4k AF-S 200-500mm f/5.6E ED VR
Sony
- $2k FE 200-600mm f/5.6-6.3 G OSS
FUJIFILM
- $2k XF 150-600mm f/5.6-8 R LM OIS WR
They're all cheaper & weigh less than their faster counterparts.
p.17 #3 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
I’ve often mused that Camera forums be split among intellectual reasoning members, and those of the irrational “fan-boy” mentality
The latter risking being barred from all forums if not strictly adhering to the “fan-boy” rulebook:
Mention of any other Camera maker must be avoided and permitted only if presented in forceful, derogatory terms.
All or any mention of Canon products, or policies must be presented with the highest measure of praise and admiration.
If seeking advice from other members, all queries must start with the following statement:
I am fully aware that the problem I’m having is entirely due to my own inept lack of competence, as I am fully aware that all Canon gear represents the pinnacle of utter perfection, and unlike their competitors, it’s virtually impossible for a Canon product to be flawed in any matter whatsoever.
p.17 #4 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
You keep posting all these stats but you’re failing to realize that 3rd party lenses are EXTREMELY popular in Sony FE mount.
The days of Rebels are over. All that’s left are enthusiasts and pros. And we like options! Not all of us want to drop $2k on an 85mm prime.
Tamron, for example, is having record years. It’s Canon that’s going to be left in the dust if they keep up this mindset. Sony is No. 1 in mirrorless by a large margin.
3rd party E mount lenses are so popular that there is a lack of 3rd party data on Sony's 1st party lens sales/shipment figure. Would disclosing it identify a weakness on Sony's mount?
Just buy a Sony if you are unwilling to wait for a RF 85/1.4. The mount's more than a dozen years old.
3rd party doing well will negatively impact 1st party lens brands. Unless of course the 1st party lens brands are outsource manufacturing to Tamron. If you have a Tamron lens would you be inclined to buy the Sony release when it becomes available?
Sony's #1 in full frame mirrorless bodies because they started in 2010. They had a 8 year monopoly. This got disrupted in 2018 when other full frame mounts were introduced.
p.17 #5 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
That is not true AT ALL. Sony sells boat loads of their own lenses. Opening the mount creates a big tent that welcomes users of all levels. The same thing is going to happen with Nikon. By opening the mount you give so many more paths to getting new users, and existing ones to upgrade. Not to mention that Sony makes a cut of every one of those lens sales.
I don’t know what data you’re looking at, but Sony is still No. 1 in mirrorless.
3rd party E mount lenses are so popular that there is a lack of 3rd party data on Sony's 1st party lens sales/shipment figure. Would disclosing it identify a weakness on Sony's mount?
Just buy a Sony if you are unwilling to wait for a RF 85/1.4
3rd party doing well will negatively impact 1st party lens brands. Unless of course the 1st party lens brands are outsource manufacturing to Tamron.
Sony's #1 in full frame mirrorless bodies because they started in 2010. The 2nd full frame mirroless body brands Canon & Nikon started 8 years later.
p.17 #6 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
That is not true AT ALL. Sony sells boat loads of their own lenses. Opening the mount creates a big tent that welcomes users of all levels. The same thing is going to happen with Nikon. By opening the mount you give so many more paths to getting new users, and existing ones to upgrade. Not to mention that Sony makes a cut of every one of those lens sales.
I don’t know what data you’re looking at, but Sony is still No. 1 in mirrorless.
p.17 #7 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
That’s because Canon still sells a lot of DSLRs and lenses. You take those away and Sony is No. 1 across the board. Canon will be out of DSLRs within two to three years.
p.17 #8 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
That’s because Canon still sells a lot of DSLRs and lenses. You take those away and Sony is No. 1 across the board. Canon will be out of DSLRs within two to three years.
I've been saying that for the past few replies. I am using very precise language as proclamations of #1 of anything often times uses slightly vague language for the purpose of positive spin.
Sony may sell a lot of bodies but there is little to no data on 1st party lens sales.
There is 1.44 1st party EF lens for every EF body shipped.
I'd want to know how many 1st party E lenses for every E body shipped.
I put more credence on overall ILC shipment/sales until all relevant brands are all on MILC.
Based on your link's graphics Nikon appears to be #4 or #5 in ILCs. So no big surprise they selectively license their Z mount.
FujiFilm is #3 in ILCs so no big surprise they are also selectively licensing their X mount after 9 years.
OM Digital Solutions (the camera brand formerly known as Olympus) is #3 for MILCs. 2 years ago Olympus unloaded them. I wonder if being part of micro4/3rds negatively impacted their 1st party lens sales.
Panasonic had to expand to full frame with the L mount alliance.
p.17 #9 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
That’s because Canon still sells a lot of DSLRs and lenses. You take those away and Sony is No. 1 across the board. Canon will be out of DSLRs within two to three years.
Are DSLRs no longer cameras now?
From the data posted above, it looks like Canon is already within 4 points of Sony's share in mirrorless, whereas Sony sells essentially no DSLRs. (The reason Canon is still number 1 in ILCs overall.)
It doesn't take much insight to imagine that more of those Canon DSLR owners will convert to Canon mirrorless in the future than to Sony mirrorless.
You can't assume that Sony's "#1 in mirrorless" will automatically translate to "#1 overall" in 2-3 years.
p.17 #10 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
garyvot wrote:
Are DSLRs no longer cameras now?
From the data posted above, it looks like Canon is already within 4 points of Sony's share in mirrorless, whereas Sony sells essentially no DSLRs. (The reason Canon is still number in ILCs overall.)
It doesn't take much insight to imagine that more of those Canon DSLR owners will convert to Canon mirrorless in the future than to Sony mirrorless.
I hate to sound like a brand cheerleader, but you can't assume that Sony's "#1 in mirrorless" will ever translate to "#1 overall".
Not to mention Canon's production capacity's split between EF & RF mount during this ~8 year transition.
To me the number of Sony mirrorless body & lens SKUs is the target that both RF & Z mounts are are aiming for.
Many here are complaining about missing lenses in Canon & Nikon's mirrorless lens lineup. Be patient, these will be come out as the EF & F mount lenses had them.
They aren't a priority for both or either reasons
- they sell slow
- margins are thinner
Timeline for those who may not know
Sony
- 2010: 1st APS-C E mount body
- 2013: 1st Full frame E mount body
Canon
- 2018: 1st Full frame RF mount body
- 2022: 1st APS-C RF mount body
Nikon
- 2018: 1st Full frame Z mount body
- 2019: 1st APS-C Z mount body
p.17 #11 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
Well all I know is what I see here locally. For every Nikon or Canon shooter about half of them end up switching to Sony when they go mirrorless. I know a good chunk of the bird photographers in these parts and a very sizable amount of Canon shooters are switching. Mostly it’s because of a lack of lens options, at least that’s what they’ve told me. That, and the Sony A1.
garyvot wrote:
Are DSLRs no longer cameras now?
From the data posted above, it looks like Canon is already within 4 points of Sony's share in mirrorless, whereas Sony sells essentially no DSLRs. (The reason Canon is still number 1 in ILCs overall.)
It doesn't take much insight to imagine that more of those Canon DSLR owners will convert to Canon mirrorless in the future than to Sony mirrorless.
I hate to sound like a brand cheerleader, but you can't assume that Sony's "#1 in mirrorless" will automatically translate to "#1 overall" in 2-3 years.
p.17 #12 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
Well all I know is what I see here locally. For every Nikon or Canon shooter about half of them end up switching to Sony when they go mirrorless. I know a good chunk of the bird photographers in these parts and a very sizable amount of Canon shooters are switching. Mostly it’s because of a lack of lens options, at least that’s what they’ve told me. That, and the Sony A1.
Pls strive for actual global or at least national sales or shipping data rather than anecdotal observation.
As for bird photographers using Sony... that's just plain weird.
I'd more believe birders making the transition to Nikon Z9 & the NIKKOR Z 800mm f/6.3 VR S than a Sony A1 with FE 200–600 mm F5.6–6.3 G OSS or FE 600-mm F4 GM OSS
p.17 #13 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
Umm well you must not be a bird photographer because the 200-600mm is the best birding lens on the market under $3k, other than the Nikon 500mm pf (but that’s not a mirrorless lens). The 800mm pf is cool but it’s also huge - it weighs the same as a 500mm f4. Not practical for hand holding.
If you have some magical source for data on birding lenses please show it. But I see droves of Sony in the field.
dolina wrote:
Pls strive for actual global or at least national sales or shipping data rather than anecdotal observation.
As for bird photographers using Sony... that's just plain weird.
I'd more believe birders making the transition to Nikon Z9 & the NIKKOR Z 800mm f/6.3 VR S than a Sony A1 with FE 200–600 mm F5.6–6.3 G OSS or FE 600-mm F4 GM OSS
p.17 #14 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
Umm well you must not be a bird photographer because the 200-600mm is the best birding lens on the market under $3k. The 800mm pf is cool but it’s also huge - it weighs the same as a 500mm f4. Not practical for hand holding.
If you have some magical source for data on birding lenses please show it. But I see droves of Sony in the field.
In the Facebook group of 10,000+ member bird photog I'm on there is one FE 200–600 mm F5.6–6.3 G OSS user. Other Sony user is on a FE 600-mm F4 GM OSS.
Same group has half a dozen NIKKOR Z 800mm f/6.3 VR S owners
The bulk of users are on the sub-$2k 150-600mm Tamron/Sigma.
See how anecdotal observation is like?
Better to talk about BCN or NPD shipping/sales data instead.
p.17 #15 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
Well then you just proved the point of why Canon needs 3rd party lenses. Because yes, Tamron and Sigma sell a ton of 150-600s. Thanks for making my point for me!
dolina wrote:
In the Facebook group of 10,000+ member bird photog I'm on there is one FE 200–600 mm F5.6–6.3 G OSS user. Other Sony user is on a FE 600-mm F4 GM OSS.
Same group has half a dozen NIKKOR Z 800mm f/6.3 VR S owners
The bulk of users are on the sub-$2k 150-600mm Tamron/Sigma.
See how anecdotal observation is like?
Better to talk about BCN or NPD shipping/sales data instead.
p.17 #16 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
Well then you just proved the point of why Canon needs 3rd party lenses. Because yes, Tamron and Sigma sell a ton of 150-600s. Thanks for making my point for me!
Canon, Nikon and Sony are not making any licensing revenue from EF, F or E mount 150-600mm Sigma/Tamron lenses.
This is tolerable if there is YoY growth but for the past decade is has been a negative. We are now fast approaching year 1999 global shipping figures of ~5 million.
If it takes away 1st lens purchase away from 1st party brands then odds are the bird photog will not buy 1st party within 5-10 years.
Only revenue 1st party makes is bodies. Canon's business model leans more on units of lenses sold.
Users who want 3rd party lenses are better served getting a Sony.
In terms of ILCs (dSLR + MILC) Canon is #1
In terms of MILCs (MILC-only) Sony is #1
When Canon completes its transition to MILCs-only before year 2030 odds are they'll be #1 in MILCs as well.
While selling more 1st party lenses than #2 player whether it be Sony or Nikon.
p.17 #17 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
How do you know what Sony or Nikon makes on licensing the mount? I’m assuming you don’t work for either company. NO ONE KNOWS what they make or don’t. Stick to data.
The only way Canon gets to No. 1 in mirrorless is with a much larger selection of affordable lenses. Or licensing the mount. Otherwise I’ll take the bet that Sony and Nikon increases their market share, not the other way around.
dolina wrote:
Canon, Nikon and Sony are not making any licensing revenue from EF, F or E mount 150-600mm Sigma/Tamron lenses.
If it takes away 1st lens purchase away from 1st party brands then odds are the bird photog will not buy 1st party within 5-10 years.
Only revenue 1st party makes is bodies. Canon's business model leans more on units of lenses sold.
Users who want 3rd party lenses are better served getting a Sony.
In terms of ILCs (dSLR + MILC) Canon is #1
In terms of MILCs (MILC-only) Sony is #1
When Canon completes its transition to MILCs-only before year 2030 odds are they'll be #1 in MILCs as well.
While selling more 1st party lenses than #2 player whether it be Sony or Nikon....Show more →
p.17 #18 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
Canon, Sony and Nikon disclosed their respective licensing policies.
For your education I am providing citations.
2011: Sony Discloses Basic Specifications of the "E-mount" for Interchangeable Single Lens Cameras without Fee.
Unlike Sony Nikon & FujiFILM are both providing selective licenses years after the Z & X mounts were released.
jwolfe wrote:
How do you know what Sony or Nikon makes on licensing the mount? I’m assuming you don’t work for either company. NO ONE KNOWS what they make or don’t. Stick to data.
The only way Canon gets to No. 1 in mirrorless is with a much larger selection of affordable lenses. Or licensing the mount. Otherwise I’ll take the bet that Sony and Nikon increases their market share, not the other way around.
p.17 #19 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
Nikon has NOT disclosed their licensing agreement with Tamron. And remember, Sony doesn’t have to make money with their camera division. They are enormous. Canon and Nikon have to.
dolina wrote:
Canon, Sony and Nikon disclosed their respective licensing policies.
For your education I am providing citations.
2011: Sony Discloses Basic Specifications of the "E-mount" for Interchangeable Single Lens Cameras without Fee.
Unlike Sony Nikon & FujiFILM are both providing selective licenses years after the Z & X mounts were released.
p.17 #20 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
Nikon has NOT disclosed their licensing agreement with Tamron. And remember, Sony doesn’t have to make money with their camera division. They are enormous. Canon and Nikon have to.
TAMRON’s first “Nikon Z mount system” compatible lens 70-300mm F/4.5-6.3 Di III RXD (Model A047)
