jwolfe wrote:
That is not true at all. Look at Canon’s lineup. The R5/R6/R3 all share similar AF capabilities. Same with Sonys lineup. People need to stop being so down on Nikon. They know what they are doing. They are building the best lineup in the industry.
It simply isn't true that the Canon R5/R6/R3 and the Sony lineup share similar AF. They don't. Some of the AF algorithms can be implemented in lower levels cameras, but in Canon's case the R3 has way more AF calculations per second, higher fps, and much more capability to shoot in silent mode for the R3 (and that isn't even mentioning the eye directed AF). So, no they are not similar AF systems. In Sony's case the A1 has triple the AF calculations per second of the A7 IV, which translates into much better tracking, can AF much better in dark environments, and much much better capability to shoot in silent mode. They simply aren't similar AF capabilities in the flagship cameras and in the lower level cameras without a stacked sensor.
It isn't going to be true with Nikon either, but expect Nikon to develop more cameras than just the Z9 with high level AF capabilities. I am optimistic about that in the future, but I don't think all the cameras will have similar AF capabilities.
I hope so. 🙂 In a year, we should have better Nikon z models. But then Sony and Canon won't be sitting around watching Netflix. Let the leapfrogging begin!
jwolfe wrote:
As soon as the Z9 is out the next thing Nikon will do is pull that AF technology down to the Z6/Z7/Z50 series. It’s gonna kick ass.
I find it interesting that Nikon skipped the Z8 name and I hope that's because they'll implement some or most of the Z9 hardware in a new Z8 camera, sans grip. Similar to the D3 / D700 lineup. Note that the D3 was released in Aug, 2007 while the D800 was released in July, 2008.
The 800PF just grew substantially on the new roadmap image that just came out. This tells us the outlines aren't necessarily accurate. 600S could grow and have TC.
That 800 is looking pretty large now....it is going to be silly expensive I think....not as much as 400S but not what some think it will be.
Hmmmm. I hope the 800/6.3 PF price reflects scaling up from the 500 PF rather than adjusting down from a fluorite 800/5.6. If the lens is above $9k usd then my use cases don’t justify the cost.
arbitrage wrote:
The 800PF just grew substantially on the new roadmap image that just came out. This tells us the outlines aren't necessarily accurate. 600S could grow and have TC.
That 800 is looking pretty large now....it is going to be silly expensive I think....not as much as 400S but not what some think it will be.
I'm just hoping Nikon makes a good D500 replacement and then turns around and makes a Z 500mm pf. I think the 800mm pf will be at least $8k if not more. Which is still a bargain.
woodstork wrote:
Hmmmm. I hope the 800/6.3 PF price reflects scaling up from the 500 PF rather than adjusting down from a fluorite 800/5.6. If the lens is above $9k usd then my use cases don’t justify the cost.
Keeping in mind the scaling up is both increasing the focal length (with the 800mm f5.6 being pricier than the 500mm f4), and increasing the aperture (with 800mm f6.3 being 1/3 stops different from 800mm f5.6, versus 500mm f5.6 being 1 stop different from 500mm f4).
This is probably the hardest supertele to predict price on, IMO.
I now count with a price around 10.000,- for the 800PF.
It no longer can be seen as an economic way to get to 800mm like the 500PF is to get to 500mm.
I expect new innovations, like AF motor, coatings and optical elements to drive the price up and the lens is obviously meant as thé 800mm professional prime for the Z system.
Also, I am counting on a weight at least 2,5kg, but possibly up to 2800gr.
If 10.000,- and not heavier than 2800gr, I will still get in line for it, it should be an awesome lens, and the perfect addition to the 500PF, which focusses natively on the Z9.
ChrisMak wrote:
I now count with a price around 10.000,- for the 800PF.
It no longer can be seen as an economic way to get to 800mm like the 500PF is to get to 500mm.
I expect new innovations, like AF motor, coatings and optical elements to drive the price up and the lens is obviously meant as thé 800mm professional prime for the Z system.
Also, I am counting on a weight at least 2,5kg, but possibly up to 2800gr.
If 10.000,- and not heavier than 2800gr, I will still get in line for it, it should be an awesome lens, and the perfect addition to the 500PF, which focusses natively on the Z9....Show more →
Yes, I think I could stomach $10K, but beyond that, I won't bother. I wonder if Nikon will ever offer a mount conversion for their big lenses? It'd be nice to send in my 500pf and get it converted to a Z mount so I don't have to bother with the FTZ.
ChrisMak wrote:
I now count with a price around 10.000,- for the 800PF.
It no longer can be seen as an economic way to get to 800mm like the 500PF is to get to 500mm.
I expect new innovations, like AF motor, coatings and optical elements to drive the price up and the lens is obviously meant as thé 800mm professional prime for the Z system.
Also, I am counting on a weight at least 2,5kg, but possibly up to 2800gr.
If 10.000,- and not heavier than 2800gr, I will still get in line for it, it should be an awesome lens, and the perfect addition to the 500PF, which focusses natively on the Z9....Show more →
Sounds accurate to me. I feel like the only other "economic" primes Nikon could make are a 600 f/5.6 and a 400 f/5.6. The 800PF definitely will not be under 10K, but a 600 f/5.6 could definitely be, not to mention more compact too.
scott f wrote:
Yes, I think I could stomach $10K, but beyond that, I won't bother. I wonder if Nikon will ever offer a mount conversion for their big lenses? It'd be nice to send in my 500pf and get it converted to a Z mount so I don't have to bother with the FTZ.
What about dedicating an FTZII to the 500PF that never comes off? I’ve been thinking about doing that. But I wish Nikon would just crank out a Z version of that lens so the superior Z teleconverters could be used on it. They would sell a ton of Z mount 500PF’s even if it was $4k.
Ross Martin wrote:
What about dedicating an FTZII to the 500PF that never comes off? I’ve been thinking about doing that. But I wish Nikon would just crank out a Z version of that lens so the superior Z teleconverters could be used on it. They would sell a ton of Z mount 500PF’s even if it was $4k.
I basically have done that now, however, it has to come off in order to use the 1.4x TC. Otherwise, I'd duct tape it in place. lol
My guess is $5-7000s. This lens is more important for Nikon. They know how 500PF has kept their customers' loyalty to Nikon (especially the group of people that will buy long focal lenses). Also this lens will not be made in Japan (500pf case in China that hopefully less affected by the parts shortage), less complex design mechanical and electrically. There is no rationale Nikon will price it more than $10000.
Nonetheless, at $5-7000, Nikon be better to have the voice coil linear motor built in the 800PF. Thumb down if they chose not to, and if priced more than $7000.
Easyshot wrote:
My guess is $5-7000s. This lens is more important for Nikon. They know how 500PF has kept their customers' loyalty to Nikon (especially the group of people that will buy long focal lenses). Also this lens will not be made in Japan (500pf case in China that hopefully less affected by the parts shortage), less complex design mechanical and electrically. There is no rationale Nikon will price it more than $10000.
Nonetheless, at $5-7000, Nikon be better to have the voice coil linear motor built in the 800PF. Thumb down if they chose not to, and if priced more than $7000.
Not gonna happen. The 800mm 5.6 is almost $17k. It's gonna be at least $8k.
JasonTheBirder wrote:
Sounds accurate to me. I feel like the only other "economic" primes Nikon could make are a 600 f/5.6 and a 400 f/5.6. The 800PF definitely will not be under 10K, but a 600 f/5.6 could definitely be, not to mention more compact too.
I have stopped wishing for a 600mm f5.6, it is a lens that is not going to happen because the 150/200-600mm zoom lenses have become the norm.
I got a Sigma 500mm f4S instead and find that the extra resolving power does the job on a high(ish) resolution sensor like that of the D500. If the Nikon 800mm f6.3PF is 300mm longer ánd lighter then it's worth the undoubtedly high price for me, and the 500PF will still be around for when the weight is a bother.
Being able to shoot handheld 100% is the most important asset for me. The (old) Nikon 400 and 600mm f4 were beyond that, and also I have grown to dislike TC's a bit more.
arbitrage wrote:
The 800PF just grew substantially on the new roadmap image that just came out. This tells us the outlines aren't necessarily accurate. 600S could grow and have TC.
That 800 is looking pretty large now....it is going to be silly expensive I think....not as much as 400S but not what some think it will be.
That front element looks big, and that's where the expense comes from, so I'm afraid you'll be correct. It'll be expensive. The non-S 200-600 better be reasonable priced and sharp like the sony version.
jwolfe wrote:
Not gonna happen. The 800mm 5.6 is almost $17k. It's gonna be at least $8k.
Yes I know the price mark is there.
But the 800 F5.6 is not the one Nikon makes money. Even with $17K Nikon is not making money due to the tiny volume. So the case is really not relevant. Price mark on F number is also a mistake. Economically, it's about price times volume, and how much the PF design that reduced Nikon's material cost. If the 500PF production has made Nikon reach it's economies of scale ( and learning curve, I am sure it has already ). PF Z lenses are Nikon's best weapon to strike back its mirrorless market share if use properly.
800f6.3 PF will be a 5 figure lens and 600mm f4 will have a TC built in.
That's my story and I'm sticking with it. I just don't see them releasing the 600mm f4 without the TC since they have the technology and they already got a 560mm f4(400mm f2.8 TC) that can take external TC.
Besides, they already got the technology and the first to come out with 400mmf2.8 with built in TC. I think they would capitalize on that.
It's not easy for them to make the front element of 500PF. The 800f6.3 is much much bigger. Even if there's more demand at a lower price, they will not be able to make it fast enough.
Remember this. 500mm pf is a full stop slower than the f4 counterpart. 800mm PF is a 1/3 stop slower than the 800f5.6 counterpart.
But we all can dream. So dream on.
