(1) Tanaka-san (the head of ILC at Sony) goes on about sports shooter and their needs and how they will be able to be satisfied by mirrorless in a way which makes it clear that Sony really do plan, at some point, to fight for that market. I was never sure until now..
(2) Towards the end he talks about how he "wants to show you new camera" in a way which makes we think that the rumours of an announcement soon are both likely true, and (because of (1) likely a speed demon type camera. May not be too pricey - he also goes on about how the 1Dx etc are too expensive because of the mirror having to go so fast - though maybe he means for the manufacturer, not the photographer!
(3) Three years ago, the US bought more full frame cameras than China. Now China buys *twice as many* as the US. Also, China and the US buy half of all sold in the world. So that tells us that third of all full frame cameras are sold in China.
Oh well speed type camera coming. Good. I can keep my money for longer before the future A7rIII or equivalent!! I know if it's announced i'll weaken, but it's not like I need it!
I've always believe in MILC technology since it's based on a firmer foundation for intelligent engineering improvement than DSLR. Mirror(s) and Shutter are two things that drags the AF & AE camera performance down.
Thinking about the interviews I mentioned the other day and this one, I wonder whether Sony has been far less clueless than many internet pundits have claimed. They have already had pretty sophisticated and fast APSC cameras (a77ii, a6x00 series) for a while. The same goes for those backlit FF sensors with great resolution, DR and ISO performance. They used the a99ii to see whether they could put both into the same camera. Thanks to the SLT, the hurdles were probably lower than with an e-mount body, but they no doubt learned quite a bit from that. I'm pretty such some of that expertise has benefited the a9 development.
I don't doubt that they will be able to launch a very competitive camera. The question that I'm still somewhat skeptical about is, whether they will able to come up with enough competitive lenses fast enough to win over some of those sports/wildlife/action shooters who have a serious need for speed and focal length. The camera, a 100-400 and may be one fast prime, won't cut it.
Thinking about the interviews I mentioned the other day and this one, I wonder whether Sony has been far less clueless than many internet pundits have claimed. They have already had pretty sophisticated and fast APSC cameras (a77ii, a6x00 series) for a while. The same goes for those backlit FF sensors with great resolution, DR and ISO performance. They used the a99ii to see whether they could put both into the same camera. Thanks to the SLT, the hurdles were probably lower than with an e-mount body, but they no doubt learned quite a bit from that. I'm pretty such some of that expertise has benefited the a9 development.
I don't doubt that they will be able to launch a very competitive camera. The question that I'm still somewhat skeptical about is, whether they will able to come up with enough competitive lenses fast enough to win over some of those sports/wildlife/action shooters who have a serious need for speed and focal length. The camera, a 100-400 and may be one fast prime, won't cut it. ...Show more →
Yes that's exactly my thought. It's a lot of expensive development and I'm guessing largely a reputational loss leader.
Maybe the plan is to produce an A9, fill out the supertele line over the next few years and then bring out an A9II in time for the Tokyo Olympics in 2020, with perhaps some serious subsidizing of a major press outfit at that time,
like Canon allegedly did in Seoul.....
Mar 18, 2017 at 06:50 AM
Steve Spencer Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: On
Thinking about the interviews I mentioned the other day and this one, I wonder whether Sony has been far less clueless than many internet pundits have claimed. They have already had pretty sophisticated and fast APSC cameras (a77ii, a6x00 series) for a while. The same goes for those backlit FF sensors with great resolution, DR and ISO performance. They used the a99ii to see whether they could put both into the same camera. Thanks to the SLT, the hurdles were probably lower than with an e-mount body, but they no doubt learned quite a bit from that. I'm pretty such some of that expertise has benefited the a9 development.
I don't doubt that they will be able to launch a very competitive camera. The question that I'm still somewhat skeptical about is, whether they will able to come up with enough competitive lenses fast enough to win over some of those sports/wildlife/action shooters who have a serious need for speed and focal length. The camera, a 100-400 and may be one fast prime, won't cut it. ...Show more →
Keep in mind they now have what seem to be good TCs. If they add just a 200 f/2 and a 400 f/2.8, they would have 200 f/2; 280 f/2.8; 400 f/4; 400 f/2.8; 560 f/4; and 800 f/5.6 covered. That plus a new A mount adepter with better performance would give them the potential to use the A mount 300 f/2.8 and 500 f/4 until they make these lenses in E mount. You can really cover sports and wildlife well with just 5 lenses (200 f/2, 300 f/2.8, 400 f/2.8, 500 f/4, and 600 f/4), and just two with the TCs gives you lots of coverage. I also think you don't need more than the 100-400 zoom, but something like the Nikon 200-500 f/5.6 might be good to add as well.
Getting that market doesn't just require gear. It also requires being there for the photographer with loaners, on-site support at major events, etc. etc.
Steve Spencer wrote:
Keep in mind they now have what seem to be good TCs. If they add just a 200 f/2 and a 400 f/2.8, they would have 200 f/2; 280 f/2.8; 400 f/4; 400 f/2.8; 560 f/4; and 800 f/5.6 covered. That plus a new A mount adepter with better performance would give them the potential to use the A mount 300 f/2.8 and 500 f/4 until they make these lenses in E mount. You can really cover sports and wildlife well with just 5 lenses (200 f/2, 300 f/2.8, 400 f/2.8, 500 f/4, and 600 f/4), and just two with the TCs gives you lots of coverage. I also think you don't need more than the 100-400 zoom, but something like the Nikon 200-500 f/5.6 might be good to add as well....Show more →
Steve, don't get me wrong, I think they can make decent long lenses. The 300G and the 500G apparently are great lenses too, unless you plan on taking pictures of test charts with them.
The challenge will be to catch up with Canikon, who have been refining their long lens line-ups over several iterations by now. Of course, Sigma has shown that you can catch up with the big two, and Sony should have more resources available than Sigma. They are also willing to innovate when it comes to lens designs, but do they have the ability and technical know-how to come up with a 400 2.8 or 500 4 that weighs as little as the big two's newest versions, while offering similar or even better image quality, and a similar price tag? Honestly, I have no clue, but having used some longer glass from Nikon and recently Canon, I think the bar has been set very high.
I was afraid since quite some time that Sony is moving into this business segment with sports and events shooting type of mirrorless cameras. It is understandable from a business perspective since this is where the money is. Unfortunately for me as amateur there is noting to be desired with such kind of camera - I don't need fast fps, super quick AF etc etc. When these kind of cameras hit the market, I just hope that other Sony A7 series models (like the A7RII) get less pricey.
retrofocus wrote:
I was afraid since quite some time that Sony is moving into this business segment with sports and events shooting type of mirrorless cameras. It is understandable from a business perspective since this is where the money is. Unfortunately for me as amateur there is noting to be desired with such kind of camera - I don't need fast fps, super quick AF etc etc. When these kind of cameras hit the market, I just hope that other Sony A7 series models (like the A7RII) get less pricey.
I think it will trickle down. The speed gains in mirrorless is very much about computingvpower and fast throughput of data, which reminds me about PCs and their ever increasing performance. With DSLRs speed is very much about mechanical parts and creating a fast moving mirror assembly, and that's never going to be cheap. There isn't the same trickle down effect for the mechanical parts of a high end DSLR to low end DSLRs, but for the sensor tech there is. A Nikon D34000 can give picture quality about on par with a Nikon D500. So mirrorless can have this trickle down effect for AF speed and frame rate, but the DSLR can't.
Mar 18, 2017 at 08:59 AM
Steve Spencer Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: On
retrofocus wrote:
I was afraid since quite some time that Sony is moving into this business segment with sports and events shooting type of mirrorless cameras. It is understandable from a business perspective since this is where the money is. Unfortunately for me as amateur there is noting to be desired with such kind of camera - I don't need fast fps, super quick AF etc etc. When these kind of cameras hit the market, I just hope that other Sony A7 series models (like the A7RII) get less pricey.
I totally agree. I don't want to need fast AF (or for me really AF at all). I may get a long lens or two, but older much less expensive manual focus ones will suit my purposes. So, these developments won't affect what I get, but I do think they matter for the long term of development of the market and the Sony brand. Sony is poised to be broadly competitive with Canon and Nikon and I think have a third robust competitor that pushed the boundaries from time to time is good for the market. I think being broadly competitive will also be good for Sony. So, I have a much more general interest as opposed to a specific interest in these developments.
DavidBM wrote:
(3) Three years ago, the US bought more full frame cameras than China. Now China buys *twice as many* as the US. Also, China and the US buy half of all sold in the world. So that tells us that third of all full frame cameras are sold in China
bjornthun wrote:
I think it will trickle down. The speed gains in mirrorless is very much about computingvpower and fast throughput of data, which reminds me about PCs and their ever increasing performance. With DSLRs speed is very much about mechanical parts and creating a fast moving mirror assembly, and that's never going to be cheap. There isn't the same trickle down effect for the mechanical parts of a high end DSLR to low end DSLRs, but for the sensor tech there is. A Nikon D34000 can give picture quality about on par with a Nikon D500. So mirrorless can have this trickle down effect for AF speed and frame rate, but the DSLR can't....Show more →
I just hope that Sony will doing this in parallel meaning that there will be three (or more?) lines of mirrorless cameras in parallel to choose from depending on need and preference. One is the speed monster and likely more bulky mirrorless camera, below the hopefully less bulky and more compact, sensor-equivalent to the speed monster series A7 cameras, and then of course the compact mirrorless camera series. I really don't want to pay for features which I don't need and would never make use of like in the speed monster cameras. Hopefully Sony doesn't follow the Canon path to put better sensor technology in the "professional"/speed monster mirrorless cameras first before providing them in the A7 series. This would be very disappointing IMO.
Mar 18, 2017 at 09:45 AM
Steve Spencer Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: On
Chris_88 wrote:
Steve, don't get me wrong, I think they can make decent long lenses. The 300G and the 500G apparently are great lenses too, unless you plan on taking pictures of test charts with them.
The challenge will be to catch up with Canikon, who have been refining their long lens line-ups over several iterations by now. Of course, Sigma has shown that you can catch up with the big two, and Sony should have more resources available than Sigma. They are also willing to innovate when it comes to lens designs, but do they have the ability and technical know-how to come up with a 400 2.8 or 500 4 that weighs as little as the big two's newest versions, while offering similar or even better image quality, and a similar price tag? Honestly, I have no clue, but having used some longer glass from Nikon and recently Canon, I think the bar has been set very high. ...Show more →
Yes, the bar has been set high for lenses, but I think Sony has the money to make a few of these lenses and do it well. If they can just get in the vicinity of the lenses for the big two, then within 5 years I think they can have an advantage with the camera. Eventually, they should be able to have higher frames per second. I expect them to continue to have excellent sensors and if EVF technology and AF continue to improve they ought to have a very compelling camera. The DSLRs continue to have a hard mechanical limit on frames per second and OVFs just aren't going to get much better, so it will be hard to for Canikon to improve on what they have got. They can upgrade the sensor, and maybe the AF a little, but not much else. For Sony to catch up, they are at least pursuing leaders who are going to be moving slow. I don't know if they will do it, but it will be interesting to watch.
I'm all for going after that market but they need to continue the high end A7 series and it's lenses.new to market now I'd Hassy and Fuji going after MF market segment and a lot of Nikon/Canon shooters that maybe moving up, Sony as well. So they still need to get past 42 Mpx and still develop high end lenses as well as serve the general market with small, light and cheap. Another words stay diversified but focus on 3 or 4 market segments and output product at the same times. What they need to avoid is going after one market at a time and the other 3 suffer the time delays. This is not easy to spread there resources but they need to keep everyone in new products. For example you just can't ignore lenses that been asked for since day one and now it's been over 2 years. Your going to lose your base like that. So they can go after any market but you can't dedicate all your resources to only one. Sure I would love a 300 2.8 myself but as mentioned you only need about 3 or 4 lenses to catch the wildlife folks and sports shooters. Problem is today the only prime in E today stops at 85mm that is not going to cut it at all. Third party helps but Sony can't depend on that either.
Mar 18, 2017 at 09:48 AM
Steve Spencer Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: On
retrofocus wrote:
I just hope that Sony will doing this in parallel meaning that there will be three (or more?) lines of mirrorless cameras in parallel to choose from depending on need and preference. One is the speed monster and likely more bulky mirrorless camera, below the hopefully less bulky and more compact, sensor-equivalent to the speed monster series A7 cameras, and then of course the compact mirrorless camera series. I really don't want to pay for features which I don't need and would never make use of like in the speed monster cameras. Hopefully Sony doesn't follow the Canon path to put better sensor technology in the "professional"/speed monster mirrorless cameras first before providing them in the A7 series. This would be very disappointing IMO....Show more →
I actually expect just three FF 35mm cameras going forward. One will be the A9 (or some other name/same basic idea) which is high fps, relatively big sensor, great EVF, dual cards, super fast AF, etc. This will be the "professional camera," and although not small (I expect about 5D/D800 size) it won't be as big as the 1D or XD cameras from Canon. I expect a $5,000ish price for this camera. The second camera will be an A7r II type camera (now perhaps with a different name or just called A7 now). I expect that to have moderate frames per second, the biggest and best sensor, IBIS, a single card slot, decent but not quite top level AF. This is basically the new generation A7rII, and I expect this camera to have a $3,000ish price range. Finally, I expect the third camera to be a video specialist like the A7s and A7sII. It will be small have a great sensor for video and be designed to be the best camera for video that is not a dedicated video camera. I will shoot great still, but it won't have high megapixels. I don't know what they will call it, but I expect it to have a $2,500is price. They might make a cheaper FF 35mm camera, (perhaps called the A5), but I don't think they will. With the A6500 they have increased the capability (and the price) of their APS-C cameras and I think these will fill the place that was previously occupied by the plain A7. I hope I am wrong about that, as I might be most interested in that A5 in the future. This is of course totally guess work on my part, and I could be and likely am totally wrong on a number of these guesses.
Mar 18, 2017 at 10:03 AM
Steve Spencer Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: On
GMPhotography wrote:
I'm all for going after that market but they need to continue the high end A7 series and it's lenses.new to market now I'd Hassy and Fuji going after MF market segment and a lot of Nikon/Canon shooters that maybe moving up, Sony as well. So they still need to get past 42 Mpx and still develop high end lenses as well as serve the general market with small, light and cheap. Another words stay diversified but focus on 3 or 4 market segments and output product at the same times. What they need to avoid is going after one market at a time and the other 3 suffer the time delays. This is not easy to spread there resources but they need to keep everyone in new products. For example you just can't ignore lenses that been asked for since day one and now it's been over 2 years. Your going to lose your base like that. So they can go after any market but you can't dedicate all your resources to only one. Sure I would love a 300 2.8 myself but as mentioned you only need about 3 or 4 lenses to catch the wildlife folks and sports shooters. Problem is today the only prime in E today stops at 85mm that is not going to cut it at all. Third party helps but Sony can't depend on that either. ...Show more →
Guy, I don't think you will have to wait long for the high end Sony 135 that you have asked for. With the Batis 135 looking like a slower model, I expect a 135 f/2 or f/1.8 GM out within the year and likely in the Fall. I could be wrong, but I would be very surprised if they don't make that lens.
GMPhotography wrote:
I'm all for going after that market but they need to continue the high end A7 series and it's lenses.new to market now I'd Hassy and Fuji going after MF market segment and a lot of Nikon/Canon shooters that maybe moving up, Sony as well. So they still need to get past 42 Mpx and still develop high end lenses as well as serve the general market with small, light and cheap. Another words stay diversified but focus on 3 or 4 market segments and output product at the same times. What they need to avoid is going after one market at a time and the other 3 suffer the time delays. This is not easy to spread there resources but they need to keep everyone in new products. For example you just can't ignore lenses that been asked for since day one and now it's been over 2 years. Your going to lose your base like that. So they can go after any market but you can't dedicate all your resources to only one. Sure I would love a 300 2.8 myself but as mentioned you only need about 3 or 4 lenses to catch the wildlife folks and sports shooters. Problem is today the only prime in E today stops at 85mm that is not going to cut it at all. Third party helps but Sony can't depend on that either. ...Show more →
I don't think that this MF (medium format) thing will be a biggie in the future because the bulk of your camera gear will increase proportionally with the sensor size. And the trend for most is clearly to smaller gear size. Nevertheless, yes, it is good to have options but as you correctly said make sure you don't have other areas suffer for one [maybe more profitable one like sports etc].
Seriously they need to get past 85 I think we all agree here plus they need to give us some F2 glass like a 28,35,20/21,100 and the list goes on . Rumored 16-35 GM than they get there trio. Love to see a tilt/Shift 24 or 21
Steve Spencer wrote:
I actually expect just three FF 35mm cameras going forward. One will be the A9 (or some other name/same basic idea) which is high fps, relatively big sensor, great EVF, dual cards, super fast AF, etc. This will be the "professional camera," and although not small (I expect about 5D/D800 size) it won't be as big as the 1D or XD cameras from Canon. I expect a $5,000ish price for this camera. The second camera will be an A7r II type camera (now perhaps with a different name or just called A7 now). I expect that to have moderate frames per second, the biggest and best sensor, IBIS, a single card slot, decent but not quite top level AF. This is basically the new generation A7rII, and I expect this camera to have a $3,000ish price range. Finally, I expect the third camera to be a video specialist like the A7s and A7sII. It will be small have a great sensor for video and be designed to be the best camera for video that is not a dedicated video camera. I will shoot great still, but it won't have high megapixels. I don't know what they will call it, but I expect it to have a $2,500is price. They might make a cheaper FF 35mm camera, (perhaps called the A5), but I don't think they will. With the A6500 they have increased the capability (and the price) of their APS-C cameras and I think these will fill the place that was previously occupied by the plain A7. I hope I am wrong about that, as I might be most interested in that A5 in the future. This is of course totally guess work on my part, and I could be and likely am totally wrong on a number of these guesses....Show more →
I agree with your estimate - the tricky question is how would this fit into future Sony FF sensor development actions. I am really afraid that they are going to do what Canon miserably did in the past - to push lacking sales of the A9 series, put in better sensor technology there first and wait quite a while to tickle it down to the A7 series and below. I complained exactly about this in the past within the Canon forum, too. Sony was shaking up the market several years ago with the introduction of the A7 series which was great. But now it seems they might just follow the broken path from Canon and others which makes them less standing out regarding innovation IMO. I was afraid that this might happen, so I never vested too much into the FE system and lenses. Regarding the prices you mention - and I agree! - Leica becomes a better and better and price-wise comparable option for what I prefer to use to be honest.
Steve Spencer wrote:
Guy, I don't think you will have to wait long for the high end Sony 135 that you have asked for. With the Batis 135 looking like a slower model, I expect a 135 f/2 or f/1.8 GM out within the year and likely in the Fall. I could be wrong, but I would be very surprised if they don't make that lens.
I think so too. The 85/1.4 GM, the 100/2.8 T5.6 GM and a 135/1.8 could easily be considered a trio for portrait/fashion or wedding pros to choose from. I think we could even add a 200/2 to that for some at least. Then we need a 400/2.8 and the TCs you mentioned, to also cater for sports and wildlife shooters, at least initially. Sony could then provide a road map that says 300/2.8, 500/4 etc after that. I think that adding a 200-500/5.6 to the 100-400mm FE should be done early, if only as a stop gap solution until a 500/4 is in place.
