jecottrell wrote:
Are you assuming that an increase in income = increase in market share?
It would pretty much have to, since the PEN's sales cratered 2-3 years ago. Oly's seen some cost reductions from dropping development of two of the PEN models, but they'd primarily have to grow OM-D sales to start making money.
mawz wrote:
...but they'd primarily have to grow OM-D sales to start making money.
So, are you assuming that a growth in sales = growth in market share?
There are many scenarios where that wouldn't be the case. Without looking at the data that actually determines market share, you can't make valid conclusions.
jecottrell wrote:
So, are you assuming that a growth in sales = growth in market share?
There are many scenarios where that wouldn't be the case. Without looking at the data that actually determines market share, you can't make valid conclusions.
Since the overall market is stagnant for Mirrorless and declining for ILC's as a whole, an increase in sales does mean an increase in share, unless somehow a huge jump in E-M1 sales occurred late in that body's run (which would have been possible with Oly's traditional pricing model, but the E-M1's MSRP has not been following the usual Oly pattern of significant reductions after 1 year on the market). Outside of the E-M5II release, which would have improved margins somewhat Oly's margins are generally thinning as they are hitting end of life on many models (E-PM2 is done, E-P5 is almost done and seeing heavy discounts, E-PL6/7 are being deeply discounted, as is the original E-M5, E-M10 is now old enough to be seeing serious discounts. Only the E-M1 is maintaining margin, and the E-M5II does have a fair bit of margin for now).
You also cannot take a recent jump to mean much overall. Marketshare jumps every time one of them releases a popular camera, but it's just a few months of pop. E-M5II was recent. Sony will likely show a pop with the A7RII and a big pop with the A6000 successor. Fuji doesn't have as frequent a release cycle. Sony is able to maintain momentum simply because every one of their models are big sellers and they spread the releases out. Olympus seem to be following the same game plan with their OMD models and dropped their low selling PEN line. Fuji's next release is the X-Pro 2? That's a high end model and the prices will reflect that.
