p.4 #1 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
The other thing is, very few people in photography use the forums (this site or others) at all; I see two different worlds in photography but I only think of one of them as being real.
Another point I don't agree with. Sure some photographers work solo without interacting with social media. But photo forums, bulletin boards, blogs, photo sharing sites, etc, are collectively incredibly popular. Ever hear of Flickr? Photographers of all kinds just love to share images and debate all the minute technical details. How many members does FredMiranda have? Many, many thousands I bet and that is just one of a zillion forum and content sharing sites out there...
p.4 #2 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
Mescalamba wrote:
If Canon wont make something reasonable soon, they will face that oblivion. Nikon is same case.
Obviously "soon" in this case means 1-3 years. But mirrorless market is pretty fast. Thanks mainly to Sony and Panasonic.
I disagree with this. There's just too much "work" to be done to supplant Canikon in the pro level. Unless those companies conglomerate and compete collectively against Canikon, they won't pose a serious threat on that timescale.
Canikon dominate for more than just one or two systems. They absolutely don't dominate because they make the "best" camera or the "best" lenses. It's both of those reasons. It's more than that actually... There is so much technology that they are on the cutting edge of. One of the other camera makers may beat them in one particular camera, or one particularly good lens, or one instance of superior AF, or one particularly novel feature, etc. But, none of the other makers can match them on the entire lineup.
What if Sony (or Fuji, or Panasonic, Oly, etc.) came out TOMORROW with a pro-level, full-frame, mirrorless camera? Let's even say that the camera is just amazing. Feature for feature smashes everything in Canikon's lineup. Would they also have a pro-level superzoom? What about super-fast primes? What about super-fast ultra-long focal length primes (think Canon 400mm, 500mm, 800mm lenses)? What about a dedicated TTL wireless flash system that wedding pros rely on? Could they do all of this in 1-3 years? Could they even do this in a decade? There's just too much "work" they would have to do! Canikon would just have to release one camera that matches the Sony offering and then they're back on top.
p.4 #3 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
Mescalamba wrote:
If Canon wont make something reasonable soon, they will face that oblivion. Nikon is same case.
Obviously "soon" in this case means 1-3 years. But mirrorless market is pretty fast. Thanks mainly to Sony and Panasonic.
Don't forget Olympus has the fullest M4/3 product line: an actual system.
Maybe not oblivion for Canon. As important as their camera systems are to us, it's a single component among their vast array of industrial, medical and scientific products.
p.4 #4 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
PhotoMaximum wrote:
Another point I don't agree with. Sure some photographers work solo without interacting with social media. But photo forums, bulletin boards, blogs, photo sharing sites, etc, are collectively incredibly popular. Ever hear of Flickr? Photographers of all kinds just love to share images and debate all the minute technical details. How many members does FredMiranda have? Many, many thousands I bet and that is just one of a zillion forum and content sharing sites out there...
Flickr is not really that popular anymore (last few years).
Photo forums, blogs, etc. are somewhat popular.
Social sites like facebook, meetup, etc. are pretty popular.
Sites like fredmiranda, basically the old-school forum sites, are not very popular.
This is what I see, at least, among active photographers in my area.
Don't get me wrong there are some active and very good photographers who post on this site. But it's hard for me to consider it a reflection of the real world or at least the part of it which I among photographers in everyday life. So to me, only one is real.
p.4 #5 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
Access wrote:
I would actually say the reverse. At least in the west. If it was going to happen, it would have happened already (like it has elsewhere). I know a lot of people who have started pursuing photography at least somewhat seriously, and they all have started out by buying a DSLR. Not a mirrorless.
I could speculate as to the reasons but I know what I see. The only people buying mirrorless here are the ones who already own a DSLR system and are looking for something more compact but still offering some of the DSLR features (exchangeable lenses is the main one). Nobody, at least no one in the clubs or circles I'm in, is buying a mirrorless as their first serious camera. Yet we know that mirrorless is a viable product, or market, because they sell like crazy in many places.
There are plenty of times in life where a lot of people think/expect/assume that something will happen, but it still doesn't for whatever reason (or for no reason at all)....Show more →
Your analysis of mirrorless camera sales being driven by (at least as you say "here in the west") by those who own DSLRs and need/want something more compact is probably correct. That's certainly the reason I just purchased a used OM-D. (Smart how they made it look like a classic camera.)
We really don't have the data to "prove" who buys mirrorless cameras because there is no "exit poll" at BestBuy or more important Amazon and other online retailers. I speculate (again because no one has actually studied it) that most people who have started pursuing photography at least somewhat seriously, ... started out by buying a DSLR did so because they believe the DSLR "looks" like a "real" camera. This led them to believe that if they were going to take good pictures they needed to have a real camera like the pros they've seen on TV and such. I also don't argue that at this moment that any mirrorless camera can out perform a higher end DSLR.
My belief in the imminent "death of the DSLR" springs from knowledge of the work several fields. Reduced to its essentials a digital camera requires something to direct (bend, diffract, focus) light (the lens), something to make the A/D translation (the sensor), something to impose order on that mass of data (the processor), and a storage or display mechanism. Of course this all has to happen in a blink of an eye. There's some really interesting things being done in fiber optics that hint at "light bending" without benefit of glass. There's no doubt that sensors will improve and the ability to program their output is frankly in its early stages. While the use of fast Fourier transformations is well established, some of the mathematical techniques beginning to emerge from "chaos theory" likely will allow ever faster and more complex transformations.
What will this new "camera" look like? Hard to say, but at first guess I'd say something like a pair of binoculars or even closer a night scope with some sort of transmission of data to off device storage. Also inherent in the "post - DSLR" world is that the conception and expression of an image will change. As far as I can tell no one ever recorded Matthew Brady's response to George Eastman's new fangled film. Yet all one has to do is look at the historical record of images from both eras and it's easy to see that the conception of "picture" changed. The arrival of emulsion film that could render a version of color utterly altered "picture." Who knows, maybe we'll even stop arguing about "3-D"
I believe that the DSLR will be rendered obsolete not by a camera maker but by someone coming out of a totally different field - optics, material science, mathematics - all will be involved. Will I use such a device? Hard to say. The SLR form factor has lasted far longer than it logically should have. For a great many of us it "works." But then maybe we are all just "stuck in the past" and a later generation will make the change. Hard to theorize, but will be fascinating to watch.
p.4 #6 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
Of course it's a threat. Look at the bodies canon has released with the lukewarm M and the teeny tiny new one, whatever its called. The. You have the 40mm pancake release. Mirror less is very much on Canon's radar.
p.4 #7 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
Richie S wrote:
Of course it's a threat. Look at the bodies canon has released with the lukewarm M and the teeny tiny new one, whatever its called. The. You have the 40mm pancake release. Mirror less is very much on Canon's radar.
It is on their radar but they are addressing it with 'more of the same'. The SL-1 and the pancake lens are perfect examples of this -- they have to stay within their main line rather than bypass it. So they adapt the main line to compete with mirrorless instead of pursuing mirrorless with any real vigor. I mean, how can anyone believe that Canon put any effort into its 'me too' wireless system. The thing was dead on arrival. That is the way companies like Canon think and operate.
p.4 #10 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
Breitling65 wrote:
I think mirror-less is a threat for PS cameras market. Actually i believe they are PS with abilities to detach lens ...
I mainly use my E-P3 and GX1 for P&S duty. Great for going drinking, casinos and off the hip 'n chest street shots. Love the clip-on optical finders for stealthy point 'n shoot with LCD off. My prior P&S--S90--was too small to hold steady, especially when sampling brew.
p.4 #12 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
OntheRez wrote:
There's some really interesting things being done in fiber optics that hint at "light bending" without benefit of glass.
Robert
So, that is so far removed form image formation what bearing does that have on a camera? Guiding light is one thing (certain types of fibre can guide in air e.g. photonic bandgap fibres), image formation at very high resolution is another. I'm not sure what you envisage, but the idea a bundle of fibres could replace a lens is fanciful. At best in the short term (3-10) years we may see high optical quality plastic DSLR lenses, helping reduce weight.
Sensor tech clearly has a long way to go and we may see organic sensors down the track and the area of computational photography of which Lytro is but one type of camera doing this, is still in it's infancy and may have a big impact on cameras over the next several years.
p.4 #13 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
Gochugogi wrote:
I mainly use my E-P3 and GX1 for P&S duty. Great for going drinking, casinos and off the hip 'n chest street shots. Love the clip-on optical finders for stealthy point 'n shoot with LCD off. My prior P&S--S90--was too small to hold steady, especially when sampling brew.
p.4 #18 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
Quite frankly, without reading every reply in here, I am going to throw my two pennies at this topic.
For a brief period when I first started taking photos on a DSLR, if someone told me they were considering a mirrorless camera, I tried to steer them towards a small DSLR.
This was mainly because I was unaware of the feature packed quality systems out there.
Now, when someone who has never branched past point and shoot comes to me saying they want to spend $4,000+ on a DSLR and lenses etc. I try to steer them towards a M4/3 system.
I don't think the Mirrorless systems will in anyway replace the DSLR for serious hobbyists and Pros, but I do think it will steady the market on DSLRs for people that want a 6 pound point and shoot.
Long and short;
If a soccer-mum / backpacker / foody is out looking to photograph their hobby and expresses their dislike for bulk and having to learn a whole heap, they will probably be directed to the small form factor of a mirrorless by sales people.
That being said though, I am seeing some pros and extreme hobbyists out there using M4/3 cameras for their hobby stuff, purely to make it feel less like work and to explore new things.
p.4 #19 · How much do the mirrorless systems threaten Canon and Nikon DSLRs?
The mirrorless systems come in a variety of sensor sizes with interesting processors as well. Lots of experimentation and innovation going on. I doubt you will see TSE or 600mm lenses with the mirrorless but users of such lenses are a tiny market...
