cputeq wrote:
Sure we'll be using Canon and Nikon in 10 years, because *someone* has to take all the fast-actiony shots, and EVIL cameras just aren't cutting it.
Today. They already matched or surpassed image quality,
how many years do they need to match AF speed? 3, maybe 4 years.
I can bet $100 you will not see anybody in 10 years using DSLRs.
Maybe sport pros will be still shooting (with long lenses), nobody else.
cputeq wrote:
Sure we'll be using Canon and Nikon in 10 years, because *someone* has to take all the fast-actiony shots, and EVIL cameras just aren't cutting it.
I just pulled a very benign AF-C test with my NEX-5N, kit lens, and good light. Let's just say, Canikon have absolutely nothing to worry about unless every photographer on the planet limits themselves to non-moving objects.
Your theory assumes that AF-speed will not increase. It will.
cputeq wrote:
Your theory, though, assumes AF speeds will actually reach the level of PDAF now, and that PDAF speeds won't also increase
PDAF is a mature technology, it will most likely have a less steep development curve than new forms of AF. We can bet a beer and see who's right in 2021
cputeq wrote:
Your theory, though, assumes AF speeds will actually reach the level of PDAF now, and that PDAF speeds won't also increase
PDAF speed has been largely stable for over 10 years. Almost all the improvements since at the high end have been in tracking ability and frame coverage (the smaller guys have been playing catch-up to the performance level that Canon set with the EOS 3 in 1998). And guess what, CDAF is already doing well in AF-S performance, most performance issues with high-end CDAF are in...tracking and we're already seeing that improve in leaps & bounds (compare a GH2 in AF-C to a G1 or E-P1). Sony's a little behind Panasonic in terms of AF performance but both are improving faster than PDAF ever did.
FAIL! I predict this will probably be adopted by the market as quickly as the now famous Advanced Photo System film SLR's such as the Canon EOS IX, Minolta Vectis and Nikon Pronea.
One thing is for certain, it took 10 years to get from the very first (awful) DSLR's at unimagineable price points to cameras like the tiny Sony 5N with that incredible sensor or if you prefer the D3X and it's groundbreaking IQ. Does anyone think EVIL's are going to stay still?
p.2 #11 · Nikon mirrorless - who are they kidding?
The reactions to the 2.7x crop factor and the high starting price tag have been pretty negative everywhere.
Since it takes years to develop a completely new camera system with interchangeable lenses, Nikon most likely made the decision to go with a 2.7x crop sensor soon after Panasonic introduced its successful 2x crop mirrorless M43 line in 2008, gambling on the possibility that consumers might want an even smaller system. Of course this was years before the hugely successful NEX line was introduced in 2010 and immediately started cutting into Nikon's home market share in a rather dramatic way.
p.2 #14 · Nikon mirrorless - who are they kidding?
carstenw wrote:
You mean something smaller than your D700, like a digital Nikon FM or something?
Yeah, I suspect it would be easier with a good quality EVF than with a OVF though, to keep the body-size down and the viewfinder-size up. A digital FM with a new mount with a shorter register-distance.. :P But yeah, if they release a D800 sized like a FM, I might call it a day and be happy.
Edit: I want a less deep body (smaller grip) and a way smaller viewfinder bump. I want less weight, without getting a plastic body and I want an unicorn.
p.2 #15 · Nikon mirrorless - who are they kidding?
Don't you think is very significant the fact that all FF models from Canikon are rather 'old' right now?
On Canon's side the 5D2 was released already 3 years ago. For the time being, no consistent rumors of a possible 5D3, not even the obvious photoshopped fake.
The 1Ds4 has been 'ready to release' for years, but nowadays, silence. The elderly 1Ds3 is still Canon's flaghship.
On Nikon's side the D700 is quite an old tart . The D800 is still an unseen ghost. D3 and D3X aren't precisely young ladies. No D4 at sight either..
Instead, both Canon and Nikon had been releasing excellent APSC SLRs lately. Something is going on, for sure..
p.2 #16 · Nikon mirrorless - who are they kidding?
artur5 wrote:
Don't you think is very significant the fact that all FF models from Canikon are rather 'old' right now?
On Canon's side the 5D2 was released already 3 years ago. For the time being, no consistent rumors of a possible 5D3, not even the obvious photoshopped fake.
The 1Ds4 has been 'ready to release' for years, but nowadays, silence. The elderly 1Ds3 is still Canon's flaghship.
On Nikon's side the D700 is quite an old tart . The D800 is still an unseen ghost. D3 and D3X aren't precisely young ladies. No D4 at sight either..
Instead, both Canon and Nikon had been releasing excellent APSC SLRs lately. Something is going on, for sure.. ...Show more →
standard, pro level product cycle. these low volume camera models get renewed every ~3 years on average.
p.2 #18 · Nikon mirrorless - who are they kidding?
sebboh wrote:
standard, pro level product cycle. these low volume camera models get renewed every ~3 years on average.
Which, in itself, is much, much faster than what we had in the film days for pro level bodies.
Sep 12, 2011 at 12:34 PM
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p.2 #19 · Nikon mirrorless - who are they kidding?
mawz wrote:
PDAF speed has been largely stable for over 10 years. Almost all the improvements since at the high end have been in tracking ability and frame coverage (the smaller guys have been playing catch-up to the performance level that Canon set with the EOS 3 in 1998). And guess what, CDAF is already doing well in AF-S performance, most performance issues with high-end CDAF are in...tracking and we're already seeing that improve in leaps & bounds (compare a GH2 in AF-C to a G1 or E-P1). Sony's a little behind Panasonic in terms of AF performance but both are improving faster than PDAF ever did.
...Show more →
There was also information of a technology that includes phase detect AF pixels between regular pixels of an imaging sensor. I don't remember it well but it seemed to me that it was developed by Sony.
maybe 2012 will give us this?