Kerry Pierce wrote:
Market share for canon is/was in the 40% range. Nikon\'s market share is/was in the 30% range. They have always been roughly on even terms, comprising almost 80% of the market between them. Everyone else takes up the remaining 20%. Nikon has always been 20% market share ahead of the number 3 player. Assuming that they current market shakes out some weak players, nikon isn\'t likely to be one of those falling by the wayside.
When speaking specifically of DSLR sales, which we really should be doing because those are what the discussion has focused on, the difference is actually much smaller. Market-share data from IDC (see CrunchGear and PDNPulse indicates that Canon had a big lead in 2006 (46.7% to Nikon\'s 33%), but that said lead nearly evaporated in 2007 when the results were nearly neck-and-neck (42.7% to 40%).
Full 2008 reports are not yet available. However, they should be pretty interesting. Canon has been #1 in P&S sales at 18% for the last year or two, with Sony second at 16%. Yet Nikon announced at PMA that they had scored that #1 position in December 2008, according to the NPD group. Whether that\'s a one-month outlier or an indication of a stronger trend, I don\'t know. But either way, it should definitely affect Nikon\'s market-share numbers in a good way. I would not be surprised to see Nikon DSLR sales exceed Canon\'s, since 2008 was a very good year for Nikon and the 1D3 year for Canon.
Note that none of the above means I think that Canon is failing. Canon has had a very bad year, has thoroughly screwed the pooch with the 1D3 (and their handling of the 1D3 situation has been a much, much bigger fiasco than the already-substantial problems caused by the AF issues), and there\'s going to be some dark days in Canonland. But both Nikon and Canon will soldier on, both will have good years and bad years, and both will remain good and solid systems.
I wish Canon and their users the best of luck. I\'m sure things will get better for them. On an individual basis, I love my Nikons much more than I ever loved my old Canons. Unless there is a game-changing circumstance that really threatens the future of Nikon as a company and a system, I\'m a-stayin\' right here.
Mar 17, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Previous versions of Rodolfo Paiz's message #6845662 « The Canon Fallout »
Canon has had a very bad year, has thoroughly screwed the pooch with the 1D3 (and their handling of the 1D3 situation has been a much, much bigger fiasco than the already-substantial problems caused by the AF issues), and there\'s going to be some dark days in Canonland. But both Nikon and Canon will soldier on, both will have good years and bad years, and both will remain good and solid systems.