Previous versions of brainiac's message #6692409 « 5DII failures on LL Antarctic trip »
brainiac Offline [X]
Re: 5DII failures on LL Antarctic trip
RobertLynn wrote:
If each camera has a 25% chance of failure (this is coming from the number of failures in the batch), that\'s a 50% chance of failure with at least 1 camera. Odds I\'m not willing to mess with.
I think you should avoid messing with any odds, seeing as you don\'t know how to calculate them. For God\'s sake never enter a casino. You will do consistently worse than a monkey ;-) Here\'s a little hint on what\'s wrong with your method: what odds of failure do you calculate if you take 5 cameras? That\'s right, 125%. What does 125% mean, if 100% means total certainty? It means you don\'t know how to calculate odds.
The real odds of a failure with two bodies are 1 - (.75 x .75) = 43.75%
Feb 07, 2009 at 10:51 AM
brainiac Offline [X]
Re: 5DII failures on LL Antarctic trip
RobertLynn wrote:
If each camera has a 25% chance of failure (this is coming from the number of failures in the batch), that\'s a 50% chance of failure with at least 1 camera. Odds I\'m not willing to mess with.
I think you should avoid messing with any odds, seeing as you don\'t know how to calculate them. For God\'s sake never enter a casino. You will do consistently worse than a monkey ;-) Here\'s a little hint on what\'s wrong with your method: what odds of failure do you calculate if you take 5 cameras? That\'s right, 125%. What does 125% mean, if 100% means total certainty? It means you don\'t know how to calculate odds.
The real odds are 1 - (.75 x .75) = 43.75%
Feb 07, 2009 at 10:51 AM
brainiac Offline [X]
Re: 5DII failures on LL Antarctic trip
RobertLynn wrote:
If each camera has a 25% chance of failure (this is coming from the number of failures in the batch), that\'s a 50% chance of failure with at least 1 camera. Odds I\'m not willing to mess with.
I think you should avoid messing with any odds, seeing as you don\'t know how to calculate them. For God\'s sake never enter a casino. You will do consistently worse than a monkey ;-) Here\'s a little hint on what\'s wrong with your method: what odds of failure do you calculate if you take 5 cameras? That\'s right, 125%. What does that mean? It means you don\'t know how to calculate odds.
The real odds are 1 - (.75 x .75) = 43.75%
Feb 07, 2009 at 10:49 AM
brainiac Offline [X]
Re: 5DII failures on LL Antarctic trip
RobertLynn wrote:
If each camera has a 25% chance of failure (this is coming from the number of failures in the batch), that\'s a 50% chance of failure with at least 1 camera. Odds I\'m not willing to mess with.
I think you should avoid messing with any odds, seeing as you don\'t know how to calculate them. For God\'s sake never enter a casino. You will do consistently worse than a monkey ;-) Here\'s a little hint on what\'s wrong with your method: what odds of failure do you calculate if you take 5 cameras? That\'s right, 125%. What does that mean? It means you don\'t know how to calculate odds.
Feb 07, 2009 at 10:46 AM
brainiac Offline [X]
Re: 5DII failures on LL Antarctic trip
RobertLynn wrote:
If each camera has a 25% chance of failure (this is coming from the number of failures in the batch), that\'s a 50% chance of failure with at least 1 camera. Odds I\'m not willing to mess with.
I think you should avoid messing with any odds, seeing as you don\'t know how to calculate them. For God\'s sake never enter a casino. You will do consistently worse than a monkey ;-) Here\'s a little hint on what\'s wrong with your method: what odds of failure do you calculate if you take 5 cameras?
Feb 07, 2009 at 10:45 AM
brainiac Offline [X]
Re: 5DII failures on LL Antarctic trip
RobertLynn wrote:
If each camera has a 25% chance of failure (this is coming from the number of failures in the batch), that\'s a 50% chance of failure with at least 1 camera. Odds I\'m not willing to mess with.
I think you should avoid messing with any odds, seeing as you don\'t know how to calculate them. For God\'s sake never enter a casino. You will do consistently worse than a monkey ;-) Here\'s a little hint on what\'s wrong with your method: what odds of failure do you get if you take 5 cameras?
Feb 07, 2009 at 10:44 AM
brainiac Offline [X]
Re: 5DII failures on LL Antarctic trip
RobertLynn wrote:
If each camera has a 25% chance of failure (this is coming from the number of failures in the batch), that\'s a 50% chance of failure with at least 1 camera. Odds I\'m not willing to mess with.
I think you should avoid messing with any odds, seeing as you don\'t know how to calculate them. For God\'s sake never enter a casino. You will do consistently worse than a monkey ;-)
Feb 07, 2009 at 10:43 AM
Previous versions of brainiac's message #6692409 « 5DII failures on LL Antarctic trip »
