What I am reacting against is the connection you establish btwn the Z9 and this slump.
You are implicitly linking the slump with a technological deficit that would explain it and be addressed by the Z9.
My point is that if there is a slight technological gap it is very recent, only a few months old, and can therefore not be the cause of the slump Nikon is in.
"We cannot deny that the Nikon brand has fallen into a long slump recently."
Although I thought I was paraphrasing from memory when I posted it, that is actually a direct quote from Nikon's President Mr. Toshikazu Umatate, in Nikon's latest Annual Report. He also linked optimism for the future prospects of the Imaging division directly to the Z9 release and new lenses. I trust he understands the issues far better than you or me.
I would argue that Nikon's technical gap was clearly exposed with the original release of the Z6/Z7 back in 2018. These cameras were well behind the competition in important areas when released. Since cameras take years to develop the deficit surely existed for some time prior to that. In my view that is not a short time, and clearly more than the few months that your post references. Nikon leadership has explicitly acknowledged this previously. They said that they were late in developing mirrorless technology because they didn't believe in it. They acknowledge that this was a mistake.
Mirrorless technology now accounts for nearly 80% if the camera business revenue. When we focus on that (which is the future), Nikon has fallen from a solid and competitive second place in the industry, to seventh place in mirrorless market share. That cannot be ascribed just to marketing failures. To a large extent it accurately reflects a technology deficit in released products. Markets to tend to amplify such deficits. Comparing just to similar issues at Canon doesn't account for the broader market. Canon has made up for this in the last year or so, and now has achieved at least parity in mirrorless in many respects. Some areas they actually probably lead. Assuming a great release in the Z9, In a direct comparison to Canon, Nikon's technology can be said to be trailing by less than a year, and about to be at parity at a minimum.
It should be noted I think that when saying that Nikon lags technically in mirrorless, I am speaking of released products. The sum of currently available cameras and lenses. It is not a statement of a deficit of technical abilities within the company. Nikon has a long history of technical excellence and leadership. That base has not diminished. My posts on the subject have always expressed optimism in this. I continue to expect great things from the Z9 release. I expect that many advances will make their way down to other Nikon mirrorless products. Much of that will hopefully be through free firmware updates to existing products. I believe we are the cusp of functional; parity between the big three camera manufactures. Choices will be made on small differences and preferences around the edges of technology and implementations. That will be a great thing.
Oct 19, 2021 at 09:21 AM
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