Hmmm, let me think, the famous Nikon expert has also some insider's information at Sony too......
If Sony were really to discontinue the production of FF sensors, I very much doubt it that it would be the kind of decision Thom Hogan would know about.
Coming just one day before Sony announces 3 FF lenses, it is kind of ironic, don't you agree
Hmm, Sony's going to ditch the only successful part of its SLR line? Somehow I doubt that.
Now Sony ditching APS-C DSLR's is another thing, given Sony's continuing failure to produce a competitive low-end DSLR and the poor sales of even their reasonably good mid-range bodies due to overly high pricing I wouldn't be shocked to see the APS-C Alpha line dumped in favour of an expanded NEX line.
HerbChong wrote:
Sony makes Nikon's sensors. that's why he could know.
Herb...
Except that while Thom has a good track record on many things, he's generally been awful at predicting anything in the way of non-leaked upcoming product.
I'm betting this has to do with nikon-sony deal and announcement of a new D700x which I have wondered when it was going to happen and how sony FF sales would do after that.
mawz wrote:
Hmm, Sony's going to ditch the only successful part of its SLR line? Somehow I doubt that.
Now Sony ditching APS-C DSLR's is another thing, given Sony's continuing failure to produce a competitive low-end DSLR and the poor sales of even their reasonably good mid-range bodies due to overly high pricing I wouldn't be shocked to see the APS-C Alpha line dumped in favour of an expanded NEX line.
i'm sure they still sell a lot more APS-C dslrs than they do FF dslrs just because of price even though their FF ones are the only recent ones that seem well designed and thought out. it does seem plausible that they haven't made a big enough break into the FF market to view it as profitable to continue the venture. i have to say that seems like a terrible move to me though since the lack of higher end camera's will hurt their ability to be taken seriously at non big box retailers.
wayne seltzer wrote:
I'm betting this has to do with nikon-sony deal and announcement of a new D700x which I have wondered when it was going to happen and how sony FF sales would do after that.
Exactly! This story is too complicated anyway. Did Nikon stop ordering FF sensors from Sony? Or did Sony stop providing Nikon with FF sensors? I'm sure if the rumor is true, and I doubt it strongly, we will know the details very soon
sebboh wrote:
i'm sure they still sell a lot more APS-C dslrs than they do FF dslrs just because of price even though their FF ones are the only recent ones that seem well designed and thought out. it does seem plausible that they haven't made a big enough break into the FF market to view it as profitable to continue the venture. i have to say that seems like a terrible move to me though since the lack of higher end camera's will hurt their ability to be taken seriously at non big box retailers.
They certainly do, but they don't seem to be nearly as successful with the APS-C stuff (they're currently stuck in 6th place for overall sales in Japan and North America, even Pentax with only two models outsells the entire Sony line). The FF stuff is high-margin, even the A850, while the APS-C stuff is low-margin. The NEX's seem to be doing well so far, despite a selection of mediocre reviews (due almost entirely to poor software UI)
Sony is a player in FF, they are an also-ran for APS-C.
edwardkaraa wrote:
Hmmm, let me think, the famous Nikon expert has also some insider's information at Sony too......
If Sony were really to discontinue the production of FF sensors, I very much doubt it that it would be the kind of decision Thom Hogan would know about.
Be careful, Edward. The last time I questioned whether Thom Hogan would know anything about what might be going on in companies that were NOT Nikon (e.g., Sony) I was viciously attacked. While I readily accept that he may have some links into Nikon, it is quite doubtful if he has any links elsewhere -- if only (but probably not "only") becuase of his Nikon links and well-known status as a Nikon fan(boy).
where are you getting those numbers from? the reliable numbers i have show Sony is outselling Pentax's DSLRs worldwide in the last two fiscal years by a factor larger than 3X. the last time Pentax outsold Sony in DSLRs was in 2006. the only Japanese DSLR manufacturer selling fewer than Pentax is Panasonic.
Herb...
mawz wrote:
They certainly do, but they don't seem to be nearly as successful with the APS-C stuff (they're currently stuck in 6th place for overall sales in Japan and North America, even Pentax with only two models outsells the entire Sony line).
Thom writes, "As I've written before, if an FX sensor costs US$500 then a DX sensor probably costs US$50."
What Thom seems to ignore is that FF users would gladly pay the additional $450 (+ markup) for the FF sensor over the DX sensor -- and the numbers of those willing are only increasing.
Thom being the Nikon guru, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some partial truth in his rumor. Perhaps Sony will cease providing Nikon with FF sensors, which makes sense, taking in consideration the dubious silence on the long expected D700X. Very interesting times...
Lotusm50 wrote:
Thom writes, "As I've written before, if an FX sensor costs US$500 then a DX sensor probably costs US$50."
What Thom seems to ignore is that FF users would gladly pay the additional $450 (+ markup) for the FF sensor over the DX sensor -- and the numbers of those willing are only increasing.
those numbers may be increasing but the only way they will become anything other than a small fraction of the dslr market is if the dslr market shrinks drastically because all the low end buyers are buying mirrorless cameras instead. sony may have looked at future development costs and decided they are too high for the size of the potential market (i certainly hope this is not the case). $2000+ cameras will never be a high volume item.
mawz - i didn't realize the a850 & a900 were high margin items. i had heard lots of speculation that they were loss leaders as the playstation 3 was said to be. i haven't heard anything either way from any credible sources, do you know for sure they are high margin even with development costs?
HerbChong wrote:
where are you getting those numbers from? the reliable numbers i have show Sony is outselling Pentax's DSLRs worldwide in the last two fiscal years by a factor larger than 3X. the last time Pentax outsold Sony in DSLRs was in 2006. the only Japanese DSLR manufacturer selling fewer than Pentax is Panasonic.
Sony had a bad 2009 and was shaping up for a worse 2010 until the NEX's launched. Pentax did badly in 2007-2008 but sales strengthened starting in mid-2008 with the K-m and continuing through 2009, especially after the K-x hit the market. The K-x has been a massive success for Pentax and came right at the same time that it was becoming obvious that Sony's second-generation A2x0/A3x0 series were a spectacular flop.
Unfortunately it's hard to find hard numbers for outside of Japan. What I've run across indicates that North American rankings are similar to Japan overall, but with Sony having done better in 2007-2008, in particular due to the success of the A700 and the first generation of A2x0/A3x0 bodies.
Or maybe Sony will ditch FF cameras and FOCUS on FF sensors FOR Nikon ... pending a REVISED agreeable arrangement ... i.e. if you can't beat, join 'em ... hmmm ??
sebboh wrote:
those numbers may be increasing but the only way they will become anything other than a small fraction of the dslr market is if the dslr market shrinks drastically because all the low end buyers are buying mirrorless cameras instead. sony may have looked at future development costs and decided they are too high for the size of the potential market (i certainly hope this is not the case). $2000+ cameras will never be a high volume item.?
Small fraction or not, $2000+ cameras with FF sensor are profitable and have higher margins. They will continue to be built.
Even if people are moving to mirror-less cameras, there is nothing that says they can't make a FF mirror-less camera (e.g., Leica M9). Further, increasing acceptance of these consumer mirror-less cameras more spells doom for APS-DSLR's (no mirror box and prism so cheaper to build as well as being smaller) than FF DSLR's. One could easily see a situation evolving where we have APS mirror-less cameras and FF DSLR's.
Lotusm50 wrote:
Small fraction or not, $2000+ cameras with FF sensor are profitable and have higher margins. They will continue to be built.
Even if people are moving to mirror-less cameras, there is nothing that says they can't make a FF mirror-less camera (e.g., Leica M9). Further, increasing acceptance of these consumer mirror-less cameras more spells doom for APS-DSLR's (no mirror box and prism so cheaper to build as well as being smaller) than FF DSLR's. One could easily see a situation evolving where we have APS mirror-less cameras and FF DSLR's.
In fact that's exactly what I expect to see the market move to overall, although I do expect to see a small number of specialist APS-C DSLR's remain.
What I expect to see is that cameras like the D300 and 7D remain, as well as likely one specialist maker (Likely Pentax, specializing specifically in compact DSLR's as a niche market is already what they're doing) while the majority of the market moves to LVIL (Live View Interchangeable Lens) in pursuit of P&S-type handling, size & features with DSLR IQ. If Fuji's new Phase-Detect capable image sensors take off this switchover could accelerate as that can deliver DSLR-like AF speed as well as allowing CDAF features like face detection to work properly.
