I go back and forth between the first two. Typically I like it when the reflection is broken up by a bit of disruption in the surface of the water, but here I think the symmetry of the scene is more powerful in the first. Nicely done.
The quality of the light in that misty sky is beautifully handled, too.
(I wonder how it would look if you eliminated that bit of foam or whatever it is right at the bottom edge of the frame or even just narrowed it a bit?)
There's a really nice, pleasant mood in these. Great job with the capture, but it's also easy to lose that soft light feel in processing, so well done conveying that through to the images.
I lean toward the second, mostly because of the additional light you caught on the trees compared to the first, along with the different cloud structure.
