EDIT: This 2025 speculation thread has been renamed to continue as the 2026 CP+ Voigtlander speculation thread at Juha's suggestion. To skip all the 2025 speculation, use this link or go to page 10, post 9.
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In the spirit of speculation about what lenses Cosina/Voigtlander should release sooner than later, let's put our opinions on the record. What do you think Cosina will announce at CP+ in February?
This could be any mount but my thinking is more along the lines of their VM offerings.
(P.S. this is cross-posted in Alt/Leica and Sony.)
My take: now that the VM90/2 APO is coming, IMO the only 'obvious' focal length gap remaining in the VM lineup that hasn't been updated in ages, is 24/25mm. In my mind, the only question is maximum aperture. With this being Cosina, it wouldn't be implausible for them to just blanket the full range from f/1.4 to f/2.8 or f/3.5. Maybe that's too easy an answer. So what would come first? I'd guess f/2 if only because a 'mainstream' 24 or 25/2 has never existed in M mount (AFAIK - the MS Optical 24/2 doesn't count ). Whatever comes, it will probably be compact with high vignetting.
Likely not for 2025, but I'd like to see a VM 35/1.7 v2. Yeah, I know there's already a ton of 35mm offerings in the VM mount, but it's Cosina. Anything is possible! I just feel that the 35/2 and 35/1.5 didn't really effectively replace the 35/1.7. The 35/2 has a harsh focus transition zone and busy bokeh quality while the 35/1.5 seems like a bit of a technical let down with its mid zone drop in sharpness/resolution. And it's so small, therefore high vignetting. The 35/1.7 seemed like a bit of a unicorn offering compared to more recent VM releases. It's pretty uniformly sharp across the frame from wide open without really any unpleasant surprises. It also has pleasant, relatively neutral (modern) rendering. The only real letdown was its design. The horrid sawtooth focusing ring and 'too long for 35mm' physical length. But I still have this lens and haven't really found a reason to replace it. Even if just a mild optical refresh that keeps all the good and replaces the housing with a design that conforms to Cosina's recent VM focus tab releases would be enough for me.
For other mounts, I'd like to see more for Canon RF, my other system of choice. But suspect this is strongly constrained by what Cosina can get Canon to approve. 50/2 APO Lanthar would be top on my list followed by the 21/1.4.
Your thoughts? Remember this is Cosina, so theoretically, anything is possible!
I too would like a CV 35/1.7 v2--better ergo, slightly better coma correction, a bit more micro-contrast. Was already a really good option.
I'd like if they released a dreamy portrait lens--something like the Heliear 50/1.5 but longer. An 18mm of some type would be good--I don't need 1.4. A compact f2-2.8 would be great.
Although I think the current CV 15/4.5 III is great, I would appreciate a replacement with tighter production tolerances and higher off-axis resolution while still maintaining its compact size.
However, If the trend continues, we can expect to see more 35mm and 50mm lenses from Cosina in 2025!
PS: I find the CV 35/2 Ultron’s rendering very unique, but I understand it’s not for everyone, especially those who prefer smoother transitions.
The 35/1.2 Nokton III VM is discontinued and sold out here, so I expect a replacement of it and the 50/1.2 perhaps with floating elements and closer focusing, competing with new Summiluxes and Simeras.
I would quite like to see a silver finish 35/1.4 Nokton classic.
In non-M mount ( X, MFT etc. ) I would like to see longer focus throws : 1m-> infinity in 15 degrees is a non-starter for preset, or even magnified, manual focusing.
I'm thinking that they could come out with some more mirrorless lenses at CP+ this year. After the 28/1.5 for Sony E, I think they will release the same lens at least for Nikon Z and likely for Canon RF as well within the next few months after January, one by one. If one or more of those is not announced before CP+, they would most likely be announced there.
Secondly, I think they could be coming out with something different for FF mirrorless than more Noktons, and I'm specifically thinking about some pancake style lenses like the ones they made for Fuji X (27/2, 18/2.8). Maybe starting with a small 40mm f2.8 in pancake style for all 3 mirrorless mounts.
I think they would also bring out something new for Fuji X, perhaps a 21mm FF equivalent 14mm ~f2.8 pancake in similar size and style as the 27/2, 18/2.8.
As for VM, I think something to replace the discontinued 35/1.2 III, 40/1.2, 50/1.2 could be up soonish. Perhaps a 35/1.2 IV could be first.
Dec 17, 2024 at 07:21 PM
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I think it is time for a 40 f/1.2 version II, which I think will be the first of new Noktons at 35 and eventually 50. I hope they make it with a few APD elements to reduce purple fringing and axial CA. I would love to see a floating element design for better close up performance as well. As they do so, I would love to see the weight at no more than 350g, which I think is possible as the SE version for E mount was only 340g and the current VM version is 315g. And it should have the 12 blade aperture that they are using in all their new lenses as well and ideally the funky version of it in the 35 f/2 APO that is completely round at f/2.8, f/5.6, and f/16.
I also disagree with Ron, which is rare as I think he always has sound thoughts about Leice, but there are three classic M focal lengths in which they are still missing lenses. An 18 f/2.8 weighing less than 400g would be the lens I want most. Cosina made the Zeiss ZM 18 f/4, which was a good lens in its time, so I think they could make a really nice 18 f/2.8. Then as Ron says they don't have a 24/25mm any more and of course they don't have a 135mm. They made a wonderful and pretty small 180mm f/4 for DSLRs, so I don't see any reason they couldn't make a very nice 135mm f/3.5 APO to compete with the Leica at a much reduced price.
Despite those holes in the lineup, I don't think any of those lenses will be introduced soon. Of course it is folly predicting what Cosina will do and personally I almost always get it wrong, but I think they are most likely to renew the 15mm, and 40mm perhaps both in M mount and mirrorless mounts (at least E and Z mount) at the same time.
I think we will see more Nikon Z mount lenses next year as well getting closer to what they have for Sony. I expect the 10mm f/5.6 and 21mm f/1.4 in Nikon Z next year and we might get the 28mm f/1.5 as well. I don't expect more than 3 Z mount lenses, however, so we might get the 110 f/2.5 macro instead of the 28mm f/1.5.
In RF mount, I expect the 21mm f/1.4, and perhaps the 28mm f/1.5, but I don't expect anything else. I don't know the we will ever see anything other than Noktons on Canon RF.
I haven't follow APS-C lenses or m4/3rds enough to even hazard a guess, but I am sure there will be something new for Fuji X as well and likely a lens for the conference.
Juha Kannisto wrote:
I'm thinking that they could come out with some more mirrorless lenses at CP+ this year. After the 28/1.5 for Sony E, I think they will release the same lens at least for Nikon Z and likely for Canon RF as well within the next few months after January, one by one. If one or more of those is not announced before CP+, they would most likely be announced there.
Secondly, I think they could be coming out with something different for FF mirrorless than more Noktons, and I'm specifically thinking about some pancake style lenses like the ones they made for Fuji X (27/2, 18/2.8). Maybe starting with a small 40mm f2.8 in pancake style for all 3 mirrorless mounts.
I think they would also bring out something new for Fuji X, perhaps a 21mm FF equivalent 14mm ~f2.8 pancake in similar size and style as the 27/2, 18/2.8.
As for VM, I think something to replace the discontinued 35/1.2 III, 40/1.2, 50/1.2 could be up soonish. Perhaps a 35/1.2 IV could be first....Show more →
I've heard that we'll be seeing more Fuji X-mount lenses soon, and I'm hoping one of them will be a new pancake lens!
Predicting what VM will release next is challenging due to the apparent lack of a consistent pattern in their product launches. It seems that Cosina follows its own preferences, and if a lens doesn't sell well, they quickly discontinue its production..
Juha Kannisto wrote:
As for VM, I think something to replace the discontinued 35/1.2 III, 40/1.2, 50/1.2 could be up soonish. Perhaps a 35/1.2 IV could be first.
If you believe that the recent past is the best predictor of the near future, you might see more Noktons in the Cosina comfort zone of 35<-->50mm lenses. They like the ease of the outside lane these days. They can make a living out there and still do well on price point by churning them out, one after another.
They have a boutique bling mentality. They want to stay small, so they think small; and cheap. They are in the box seat to do some great lenses - they have the talent, the expertise, the plant, the glass - but not the will (management). It could include:
. a lightweight 'Otus' range (charge $2000 each lens);
. several landscape friendly, high spec slow lenses at 15mm, 18mm, 21mm, 25mm and 35mm (why not?);
. a 90mm APO-Lanthar (very welcome in this currently bland and moribund niche);
. a 35/1 GA; a 75/1.25 GA to join the 50/1 (why do the tech and not use it?);
. two or three manual focus zooms (big underlying demand for these).
It won't happen, none of it. I'm starting to think they enjoy not doing these things. When does the boss reach retirement age? I'd almost contribute to his super fund to speed up the process. This is what happened at Sony by the way, they got a great guy in at the top around a decade back and the rest is history. You have to move forward. Stasis in a fast-moving industry is going backwards.
I think Cosina always think carefully about what they can actually sell in Japan market (which must be their biggest market) and they base their new lens decisions on that. I doubt that any $2000 lenses that they could make would actually sell decently in Japan since the market is quite price-constrained and the very best-selling CV lenses are always the cheaper ones in the ~60K yen and below price point. With their E-mount APO 50/2 and 35/2 they managed to sell well because of the combination of high IQ and still reasonable price at 115K yen (around $750) at launch. If they stretched the price to $2000, e.g. around 300K yen, I could see them selling close to 0 units in Japan market, even if the lenses were Otus -like. They should have all the Japan market sales figures on the actual Otus range since they make them and are the Japan market distributor for them as well.
Same with landscape friendly high spec slow lenses, I think they would also be slow sellers for the most part...
- replacements for the VM 1.2 Noktons
- no 24/25mm lens but maybe new 21mm lenses
- more APO lenses with Non-Lanthar designation (Skopar or Ultron, maybe Heliar?), maybe a 21mm APO-Skopar
- more f1.5 Noktons ported to E, Z, RF mount in addition to the 28mm and 75mm
- new 23mm lens for Fuji X
- maybe a high-end 35mm along the lines of the 50mm f1
Will be fun to check back at the end of the year to see just how wrong I was with these
TakenWild wrote:
Cosina should do Kickstarter for lenses. They already have a cult following and could help make more lenses that don’t sell as well in Japan.
Cosina of course has distributors outside of Japan too but I think they continue to sell most of their volumes in Japan market. I'm not sure if using Kickstarter would make a lot more people in other markets go for lenses that wouldn't otherwise sell in big enough volumes to be financially viable?
For example their flagship GA lenses 50/1 in M/E/Z/RF and 35/0.9 in X mount don't seem to be volume sellers in any market perhaps due to relatively high pricing and competition from native fast AF lenses in E, Z and RF mounts etc. so it probably doesn't encourage them to do multiple other super high speed GA lenses at different focal lengths, even though they would have the technical capabilities. It's always the more medium priced lenses that have the potential to sell much more, such as different variants of the 40/1.2 etc. I think they are doing the best they can to optimize their offerings considering the business side of it.
philip_pj wrote:
If you believe that the recent past is the best predictor of the near future, you might see more Noktons in the Cosina comfort zone of 35<-->50mm lenses. They like the ease of the outside lane these days. They can make a living out there and still do well on price point by churning them out, one after another.
They have a boutique bling mentality. They want to stay small, so they think small; and cheap. They are in the box seat to do some great lenses - they have the talent, the expertise, the plant, the glass - but not the will (management). It could include:
. a lightweight 'Otus' range (charge $2000 each lens);
. several landscape friendly, high spec slow lenses at 15mm, 18mm, 21mm, 25mm and 35mm (why not?);
. a 90mm APO-Lanthar (very welcome in this currently bland and moribund niche);
. a 35/1 GA; a 75/1.25 GA to join the 50/1 (why do the tech and not use it?);
. two or three manual focus zooms (big underlying demand for these).
It won't happen, none of it. I'm starting to think they enjoy not doing these things. When does the boss reach retirement age? I'd almost contribute to his super fund to speed up the process. This is what happened at Sony by the way, they got a great guy in at the top around a decade back and the rest is history. You have to move forward. Stasis in a fast-moving industry is going backwards. ...Show more →
I like all of those suggestions, especially the slow, high spec lenses.
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Juha Kannisto wrote:
I think Cosina always think carefully about what they can actually sell in Japan market (which must be their biggest market) and they base their new lens decisions on that. I doubt that any $2000 lenses that they could make would actually sell decently in Japan since the market is quite price-constrained and the very best-selling CV lenses are always the cheaper ones in the ~60K yen and below price point. With their E-mount APO 50/2 and 35/2 they managed to sell well because of the combination of high IQ and still reasonable price at 115K yen (around $750) at launch. If they stretched the price to $2000, e.g. around 300K yen, I could see them selling close to 0 units in Japan market, even if the lenses were Otus -like. They should have all the Japan market sales figures on the actual Otus range since they make them and are the Japan market distributor for them as well.
Same with landscape friendly high spec slow lenses, I think they would also be slow sellers for the most part......Show more →
Interesting points. My feeling is the purpose of the the 50/1 was to test the waters of cracking the ~$2,000 price range. IMO it makes sense because Leica M lenses are only going up in price, which leaves a huge gap between those and the typical VM price range for someone else to offer Leica-like quality at a lower, but still premium price. Cosina has definitely proven they can perform at the highest optical level and IMO it would be refreshing to see them unleash their full capabilities in a line of high-end lenses. Their stuff now is all very good, but IMO also compromised because it's made to hit a certain price point. They can still keep doing that of course, but add to it with something premium. I feel if they don't, the low end of their product range will be at the mercy of the recent offerings from China. Some of that is really good, for example the recent Thypoch, and undercuts the prices of Cosina's comparable offerings.
). Whatever comes, it will probably be compact with high vignetting. 
This is what happened at Sony by the way, they got a great guy in at the top around a decade back and the rest is history. You have to move forward. Stasis in a fast-moving industry is going backwards.