p.19 #1 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
Round these parts Nikon D850s are still in hot demand.
I don’t think for the foreseeable future that ilc sales are going to continue to fall much more. Seems like it’s about bottomed out. What I do know is there are too many camera companies splitting the pie and some of them need to go away (Panasonic, Olympus, Pentax, maybe Fuji). Three large players is probably not sustainable 10 years from now either. But it’s anyones guess who goes under.
Looking on BHPhoto it's the
- most popular Nikon F body
- 2nd most popular dSLR
- 15th most popular digital still camera SKU
Odds are demand has declined for this over 5 year old highest-end single grip full frame Nikon dSLR.
When Pentax becomes the only dSLR brand nearing year 2030 I expect only 2-3 brands owning over 80% of the digital still camera market with total digital still camera worldwide shipment of less than 6-7 million annually.
This would near the 23 year low of 1999's 5+ million.
FujiFILM was smart enough to get into medium format 5 years ago as an alternative to Hassleblad. As the market is going higher-end then FujiFILM's the best company to take advantage of this market trend.
Moments like that is why I value 3rd party lens makers making in roads with other systems. They provide proof of concept that long-slow lenses that was largely ignored by Canon & Nikon is good enough.
It inspired a myriad of 1st party long-slow MILC lenses.
p.19 #2 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
I fail to comprehend
Some folks seem to consider that because a Company is number 1 in sales, that gives them the moral right to "screw" the customer's that made them number one; and that those customers should not only defend them, but applaud them for it, as well!
Seems like a "herd mentality" affliction---Follow the "Dominant male", even if takes you over the cliff.
Sep 12, 2022 at 09:09 AM
AmbientMike Offline • • • • • • [X]
p.19 #3 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
Some people don’t like facts.
You? Facts?
Did you ever go to the Sony board and tell them that 400 isn't long enough for birding, and their 400 2.8's are inadequate? Or are you just interested in trashing the 100-400 on the Canon board?
p.19 #4 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
The D850 is the best DSLR ever made.
Canon really hit a home run with the R7 in my opinion. The control layout is a bit weird but they are going to sell a lot of them. I really hope the mkii version of the 100-500mm fixes some of its problems. That lens has a ton of potential.
You are probably right that Canon will introduce a lot of new lenses in the next two years. Let's hope some of them are more affordable. And I hope Tamron gets a chance to launch it's mirrorless lenses in RF mount.
dolina wrote:
Looking on BHPhoto it's the
- most popular Nikon F body
- 2nd most popular dSLR
- 15th most popular digital still camera SKU
Odds are demand has declined for this over 5 year old highest-end single grip full frame Nikon dSLR.
When Pentax becomes the only dSLR brand nearing year 2030 I expect only 2-3 brands owning over 80% of the digital still camera market with total digital still camera worldwide shipment of less than 6-7 million annually.
This would near the 23 year low of 1999's 5+ million.
FujiFILM was smart enough to get into medium format 5 years ago as an alternative to Hassleblad. As the market is going higher-end then FujiFILM's the best company to take advantage of this market trend.
Moments like that is why I value 3rd party lens makers making in roads with other systems. They provide proof of concept that long-slow lenses that was largely ignored by Canon & Nikon is good enough.
It inspired a myriad of 1st party long-slow MILC lenses....Show more →
p.19 #5 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
You are probably right that Canon will introduce a lot of new lenses in the next two years. Let's hope some of them are more affordable. And I hope Tamron gets a chance to launch it's mirrorless lenses in RF mount.
The release of products are prioritized by
- faster inventory turnover
- better margins
APS-C & smaller image sensor cameras are being beaten down my iPhones & Androids. So bodies & lenses related to these are not the priority for Canon as reflected by the RF-S system being released 4 months ago into the 1st 4 years of the transition.
So all the big camera brands since 2018 have more full frame SKUs than crop SKUs.
Going forward I expect lenses that are
- slower inventory turnover
- worse margins
So the wish of say near 3rd party lens pricing and lens selection will be fulfilled within the next 4 years.
Hopefully when Canon matches the lens lineup of Sony's E mount by then they will take the same position they had with reverse engineered 3rd party EF lenses.
Canon wants the 1st lens purchase opportunity. They cannot do that when they do not have that lens you want. If say a Sigma RF 35/1.4 was released yesterday what would be the odds of that RF user to replace it with a Canon L lens counterpart? Demand would be lower for that user group.
Their production capacity & finances cannot accommodate 2x the current annual lens SKU release. The income of their buyers cannot accommodate 2x the gear that Canon would output. It would cost Canon more to output more SKUs.
As it is right now they've released an average of 8 lens SKUs annually for the past 4 years & the next 4 years will be the same.
I'd expect Series II replacement of the 1st 4 years of RF lenses to start around year 2030.
Olympics & World Cup is when new flagship bodies & photojournalist lenses are released,
These are the schedule for the Olympics
- 2028 Summer Games
- 2030 Winter Games
A decade or so after the the release of RF mount would be the time Canon would start tolerating reversed engineered lenses.
Sep 12, 2022 at 10:54 AM
AmbientMike Offline • • • • • • [X]
p.19 #6 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
Says the guy who’s never shot Canon RF.
p.19 #7 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
So how about those Viltrox products? Anybody else buying up their EF/RF speedbosters, or adapters while they can, or the Meike, etc?
They are so cheap, you could buy one per EF lens right now while you can get them, and you might as well have a couple extra for those other EF lenses you will buy since the RF lenses will be priced so aggressively once there are no 3rd party competition...
I wonder how long before metabones, meike, commlite, etc all get the same notice.
p.19 #8 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
19 pages into this thread and no one really knows why these RF lenses are being discontinued.
"IT'S ALL CANON'S FAULT!"
"CANON IS A MEANIE!"
"WHY WON'T CANON LICENSE MOUNT/LENS/IP/MYSTERY HOT SAUCE?"
This right here is a great example of why society is falling apart, among other reasons.
There may be perfectly good reasons why these companies aren't building anymore RF mount products. Perhaps they infringed on legal patents. Perhaps they are negotiating with Canon over rights. Perhaps they can't figure out how to do it right. Perhaps Canon is a meanie after all.
The point is speculation presented as knowledge or facts is a bad take. I have a Rokinon RF 85 AF and I like it very much. I'd like to see more options like this. But until I know WHY it's not happening I refuse to leap to conclusions that it's all Canon's fault.
p.19 #9 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
AmbientMike wrote:
Which Canon Rf gear do you recommend?
That's easy. The R5, R6 and R7 are great bodies. I got to play with an R7 for the first time today. It's really comfortable in the hand. It's a knock out camera body, really well done. I wish they'd have kept the R5 control layout, but otherwise it's superb. I haven't seen the R3 yet.
All of the RF mount glass is good. My issue with the 100-500mm is merely comparing it to Sony and Nikon's offerings. The only lenses I don't like are the long glass. They are either EF mount versions with a built-in converter, or in the case of the 800mm and 1200mm, lazy, overpriced designs. I wish Canon had engineered new, innovative designs like Sony did with its 400 and 600.
This thread is about Canon not licensing the mount to 3rs parties. That is a criticism for me, because I want Canon to succeed and my opinion is that more options are better.
p.19 #10 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
This is just my theory but in the case of the 400mm and 600mm just being the EF versions with adaptors, they are likely placeholders like the RP and R were so Canon has some offering rather than nothing.
They are likely working on new designs but would take years to make so did this for the time being. Brand new offerings would likely be amazing like how the R6 and R5 wipe the floor with the R and RP but you’ll be waiting a while for those lenses and they’ll cost a fortune.
jwolfe wrote:
That's easy. The R5, R6 and R7 are great bodies. I got to play with an R7 for the first time today. It's really comfortable in the hand. It's a knock out camera body, really well done. I wish they'd have kept the R5 control layout, but otherwise it's superb. I haven't seen the R3 yet.
All of the RF mount glass is good. My issue with the 100-500mm is merely comparing it to Sony and Nikon's offerings. The only lenses I don't like are the long glass. They are either EF mount versions with a built-in converter, or in the case of the 800mm and 1200mm, lazy, overpriced designs. I wish Canon had engineered new, innovative designs like Sony did with its 400 and 600.
This thread is about Canon not licensing the mount to 3rs parties. That is a criticism for me, because I want Canon to succeed and my opinion is that more options are better.
p.19 #11 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
The 600/4 RF is a really nice lens, other than the slightly excessive length. The optics are from 2018, not exactly an old design. Sigma, Tamron, Vilitrox, etc. are not going to exceed the IQ.
How much have you used it?
EBH
Sep 12, 2022 at 07:01 PM
AmbientMike Offline • • • • • • [X]
p.19 #12 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
Of course they offered the latest ridiculously light 600/4 & 400/2.8 in EF and RF versions! Even Leica offered the same lenses in m39 & M mounts!
What next. Canon comes out 6.4 lb 400/2.8 and 6.8 lb 600/4 and people say they aren't innovating and it's some sort of placeholder. What will you two come up with next? I guess Sony isn't innovative either, since theirs is basically the same weight. Incidentally the 200-600 apparently similar sized to the 600/4 Canon and Sony acording to this current thread:
p.19 #13 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
You make it sound like I hate Canon. I’m just not a fanboy of any brand. But I’m actually thinking about picking up an R7 to play with. I think you just really like arguing online. Personally I love good debate and learning new things.
AmbientMike wrote:
Of course they offered the latest ridiculously light 600/4 & 400/2.8 in EF and RF versions! Even Leica offered the same lenses in m39 & M mounts!
What next. Canon comes out 6.4 lb 400/2.8 and 6.8 lb 600/4 and people say they aren't innovating and it's some sort of placeholder. What will you two come up with next? I guess Sony isn't innovative either, since theirs is basically the same weight. Incidentally the 200-600 apparently similar sized to the 600/4 Canon and Sony acording to this current thread:
p.19 #14 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
You make it sound like I hate Canon. I’m just not a fanboy of any brand. But I’m actually thinking about picking up an R7 to play with. I think you just really like arguing online. Personally I love good debate and learning new things.
No, you make it sound like you hate Canon.
And I don't see why I have to put up with you putting down Canon endlessly on the Canon board, especially since you really come up with some stuff.
p.19 #15 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
Criticism isn’t hate. You take everything personally. Chill out. It’s a camera. It’s not that important in grand scheme of things.
I can criticize Nikon just as much on bodies. I’m not beholden to a brand.
AmbientMike wrote:
No, you make it sound like you hate Canon.
Sep 12, 2022 at 08:40 PM
AmbientMike Offline • • • • • • [X]
p.19 #16 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
Criticism isn’t hate. You take everything personally. Chill out. It’s a camera. It’s not that important in grand scheme of things.
I can criticize Nikon just as much on bodies. I’m not beholden to a brand.
I quit arguing didn't post yesterday and you kept going. You cone up with the dumbest stuff, continuously running down Canon, and now I'm the one that likes arguing on the Internet. The stuff you come up with.
p.19 #17 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
Scroll up. I have all kind of compliments to Canon. You chose to focus on one criticism.
Anyways, have a better night. I think I’ll call it a day trying to have a constructive conversation with you.
AmbientMike wrote:
I quit arguing didn't post yesterday and you kept going. You cone up with the dumbest stuff, continuously running down Canon, and now I'm the one that likes arguing on the Internet. The stuff you come up with.
Sep 12, 2022 at 08:50 PM
AmbientMike Offline • • • • • • [X]
p.19 #18 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
jwolfe wrote:
Scroll up. I have all kind of compliments to Canon. You chose to focus on one criticism.
Anyways, have a better night. I think I’ll call it a day trying to have a constructive conversation with you.
I finally managed to get you to say something good about Canon. And you still rather idiotically ran down the lenses.
p.19 #19 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
The thread had turned quite civil in the last 24 hours, with a lot of good vibes. Jwolfe and others seemed to be getting along quite well with some good back and forth. His posts on Canon seemed way more pro, then con, honestly. While you might have skipped posting for a day, you drug up a bunch of older comments for some reason.
AmbientMike wrote:
I quit arguing didn't post yesterday and you kept going. You cone up with the dumbest stuff, continuously running down Canon, and now I'm the one that likes arguing on the Internet. The stuff you come up with.
p.19 #20 · Is Viltrox Getting Sued? (No more RF-EF Adapters/Speedboosters/Lenses)
Photosbydlee wrote:
This is just my theory but in the case of the 400mm and 600mm just being the EF versions with adaptors, they are likely placeholders like the RP and R were so Canon has some offering rather than nothing.
They are likely working on new designs but would take years to make so did this for the time being. Brand new offerings would likely be amazing like how the R6 and R5 wipe the floor with the R and RP but you’ll be waiting a while for those lenses and they’ll cost a fortune.
Canon disclosed that they are increasing profits through "design efficiencies" perhaps by re-using lens designs from the 2018 EF 400mm F2.8L IS III USM & EF 600mm F4L IS III USM with the
2021
- RF 600mm F4L IS USM
- RF 400mm F2.8L IS USM
2022
- RF 1200mm F8L IS USM
- RF 800mm F5.6L IS USM
The past product cycle of their EF predecessor lenses are these years
- 1999
- 2011
- 2018
These occurs within 6-9 months prior to the Olympics or World Cup. These events drives bulk sales from photo news agencies like AP, EPA, Reuters, etc.
A fresh new optical redesign would probably come out in year 2033 for the 2034 Winter Olympics.
Improvements would be, as always:
- lesser weight
- lesser physical dimensions
- image quality improvements
- IS improvements
- USM improvements
- Aperture mechanism improvements to allow for more than 30fps, or 12 fps with mechanical shutter, with AE and AF tracking
I highlight this as these lenses have very good margins & are bought in the dozens by each of those companies. Those agencies essentially have a subscription-based business relation with Canon, Nikon and Sony. Whenever a new flagship body or Series II or III L lens comes out they'll buy it due to daily wear & tear of the replaced models.
If you ever wondered why 1-Series, 5-Series & 7-Series bodies tend to have a ~4 year product cycle then it is these major sporting events.
I read in one Canon web briefing years ago around the peak of digital still camera global shipment that the 1-Series body represented 1% of all EF bodies sold. Today I would not be surprised that flagship bodies are approaching 10% of all RF, Z or E bodies sold in a shrinking ILC market of 5+ million annual shipment
Without those sporting events odds are product cycles would be longer and we would not be this advanced in terms of tech as there are no sales to fund them.
This is also why Sony's image sensor tech is about 6 years advanced as compared to Canon. Sony's R&D is funded by half of all 1.4 billion smartphones shipped annually as ~50% of all smartphone image sensors are sourced from them.
Most of the China brand 3rd party EF, F & E mount lenses probably have their roots from optical lens suppliers for smartphones that started with the 2007 iPhone & 2008 Android.
It would improve their economies of scale to have a built in 1.4x & 2.0x extender.
So instead of having 4 RF L SKUs they'll only have 2 at a higher volume
If they did that then I'd probably say a lot less nice things about the NIKKOR Z 800mm f/6.3 VR S as a built-in 1.4x & 2.0x extender would increase the RF's utilization and flexibility at an extra cost of ~$1000 more.
