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Archive 2010 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

mawz
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p.3 #1 · p.3 #1 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

EOS20 wrote:
The 24mm f/2.0, 35mm f/1.4 and 85mm f/2.8 lenses have been announced:

Note that's a 35mm f1.8 DT (APS-C) lens, the Sony 35mm f1.4G has been available for several years.

Jul 27, 2010 at 08:35 AM

dasrocket
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p.3 #2 · p.3 #2 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

hidden_Markov wrote:
Not necessarily....dx has a strong following. Its cheaper and easier to go long on a dx than fx courtesy of the crop factor.

It still comes down to price; the crop sensor is cheaper, therefore makes sense. And given a crop and an FF sensor of same photosite density, you can "reach" the same with both.

It will not happen soon, but it will IMO.

Jul 27, 2010 at 08:52 AM

dasrocket
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p.3 #3 · p.3 #3 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

Two23 wrote:
I kind of go by what I'm seeing at Walmart since they are very good at spotting trends.
Kent in SD

Unofortunately, Walmart is in the business of actively and forcefully creating trends and influencing consumer habits. If it will make more money out of cellphone cameras, it will sell more cellphone cameras.

Jul 27, 2010 at 08:56 AM

HerbChong
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p.3 #4 · p.3 #4 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

this flies in the face of three different independent for-fee research organization's annual results reports. Sony last year stayed at about 10% market share as it has for the past two years while Pentax market share in DSLRs continue to drop. for the last fiscal year just completed, these reports all show Sony selling about 1M units while Pentax coming in at just under 300K. Japan's market has been showing a greater and greater disconnect from the world market and there is no sign of that trend reversing.

Herb...

mawz wrote:
Here's the Jan-June numbers for Japan from BCN.

http://nikonrumors.com/2010/07/08/nikon-1.aspx

Sony had a bad 2009 and was shaping up for a worse 2010 until the NEX's launched. Pentax did badly in 2007-2008 but sales strengthened starting in mid-2008 with the K-m and continuing through 2009, especially after the K-x hit the market. The K-x has been a massive success for Pentax and came right at the same time that it was becoming obvious that Sony's second-generation A2x0/A3x0 series were a spectacular flop.

Jul 27, 2010 at 09:51 AM

mawz
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p.3 #5 · p.3 #5 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

HerbChong wrote:
this flies in the face of three different independent for-fee research organization's annual results reports. Sony last year stayed at about 10% market share as it has for the past two years while Pentax market share in DSLRs continue to drop. for the last fiscal year just completed, these reports all show Sony selling about 1M units while Pentax coming in at just under 300K. Japan's market has been showing a greater and greater disconnect from the world market and there is no sign of that trend reversing.

Herb...

Cite an actual source. I did, you can too.

Jul 27, 2010 at 09:57 AM

HerbChong
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p.3 #6 · p.3 #6 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

call up JP Morgan, Mizuho Bank, and Macquarrie. ask for their research reports on the camera market and the precision equipment market. don't bother unless you have a few tens of thousands to pay for them. Sony reports actual unit sales, as does Pentax in their quarterly analysts meetings.

Herb...

mawz wrote:
Got a cite? I cited my sources, you have yet to cite any whenever this comes up, claiming for-fee research only. Note BCN numbers are based on actual shipment reports from the manufacturer, not independent research which are estimates at best.

Jul 27, 2010 at 09:58 AM

mawz
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p.3 #7 · p.3 #7 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

HerbChong wrote:
call up JP Morgan, Mizuho Bank, and Macquarrie. ask for their research reports on the camera market and the precision equipment market. don't bother unless you have a few tens of thousands to pay for them. Sony reports actual unit sales, as does Pentax in their quarterly analysts meetings.

Herb...

Why should I do your work for you? I cited a source for my claims and have little reason to take yours at face value without a corresponding cite. Note BCN numbers are directly from Sony and Pentax sales reports.

(and note your claims do not contradict mine, I claimed specifically for Japan and North America upthread and cited for Japan, you're trying to contradict specific claims with global numbers).

Jul 27, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Mr.Lindy
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p.3 #8 · p.3 #8 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

Where do you get USA dslr sales numbers ?

I'd love to see that 2009 marketshare broken down by brands link, please ?

The only industry wide data I am aware of comes from CIPA:

http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/dizital.html

Still though it does not break data down by brand.

Thank You

mawz wrote:
Why should I do your work for you? I cited a source for my claims and have little reason to take yours at face value without a corresponding cite. Note BCN numbers are directly from Sony and Pentax sales reports.

(and note your claims do not contradict mine, I claimed specifically for Japan and North America upthread and cited for Japan, you're trying to contradict specific claims with global numbers).

Jul 27, 2010 at 11:23 AM

mawz
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p.3 #9 · p.3 #9 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

Mr.Lindy wrote:
Where do you get USA dslr sales numbers ?

I'd love to see that 2009 marketshare broken down by brands link, please ?

That I don't have specifically, I'd love to see it too (even if it rendered my opinion wrong). I'm basing that off a combination of my personal discussion with various camera retailers of my acquaintance and other anecdotal info.

Jul 27, 2010 at 11:29 AM

mirkoc
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p.3 #10 · p.3 #10 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

If the new 85mm is old C/Y sonnar design with AF and new coatings it should be great lens!

Jul 27, 2010 at 11:29 AM

Lotusm50
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p.3 #11 · p.3 #11 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

So, do you have these reports? If so, let us know specifically what they say. Are you sure JP Morgan profiles the camera market? I've seen Nomura and Mitsubishi Bank reports on the industry in the past, so I know they cover the industry, but I have3n't seen thier reports for a while. Not sure JP Morgan would bother with what is purely a Japanese market (and ultimately not that big, relatively speaking), and with most of the companies in the sector probably the client of a Japanese Bank. But if you've got camera industry data from JP Morgan (or from any of the others you mention), I sure we'd all be happy to see it.

HerbChong wrote:
call up JP Morgan, Mizuho Bank, and Macquarrie. ask for their research reports on the camera market and the precision equipment market. don't bother unless you have a few tens of thousands to pay for them. Sony reports actual unit sales, as does Pentax in their quarterly analysts meetings.

Herb...

Jul 27, 2010 at 11:44 AM

Lotusm50
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p.3 #12 · p.3 #12 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

mirkoc wrote:
If the new 85mm is old C/Y sonnar design with AF and new coatings it should be great lens!

Highly unlikely. It is probably just an inexpensive lens produced by either ex-Minolta or Tamron for Sony. It is most-likely not a "great' lens, but an "adequate" one, given its 250 euro (VAT inclusive) price.

Jul 27, 2010 at 11:50 AM

mawz
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p.3 #13 · p.3 #13 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

Lotusm50 wrote:
Highly unlikely. It is probably just an inexpensive lens produced by either ex-Minolta or Tamron for Sony. It is most-likely not a "great' lens, but an "adequate" one, given its 250 euro (VAT inclusive) price.

So far the 'Easy Choice' primes have been good optically but in cheap barrels. The DT 50/1.8 is a damned good performer at a low, low price, as is the DT 30/2.8 Macro. The biggest beef with them has been that the 50 was a DT lens instead of an FF lens (the A900 and A850 auto-crop to APS-C when a DT lens is mounted, I'm unaware of a way to disable this)

Note the optical configuration of the 85/2.8 suggests that it is in fact at least somewhat related to the C/Y Sonnar, both being 5/4 Sonnar designs with identical focal lengths and apertures. I don't see why Sony would have done an 85/2.8 over an 85/2 or 85/1.7 if they weren't using an off the shelf design since the competition offers a 1-1.5 stop advantage for only slightly more money.

All that said, only time will tell as to how good the new 85 is. It could well be merely adequate. Oh, and it's definitely produced in one of the ex-Minolta factories, Tamron production is just the rebadges. The Zeiss stuff also comes from the ex-Minolta plants.

Now if this is a Contax-derived design, which I suspect (even if it's not up to the original's performance) that bodes well for seeing some new budget primes from Sony to Zeiss-derived optical formulas. Perhaps we'll also see a 100/3.5 and 28/2.8 (to replace the Minolta-derived 28/2.8, an unexceptional at best lens).

Jul 27, 2010 at 12:03 PM

HerbChong
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p.3 #14 · p.3 #14 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

i've already got the reports. i told you what i am legally allowed to. if you want the rest, you will have to pay.

Herb...

mawz wrote:
Why should I do your work for you? I cited a source for my claims and have little reason to take yours at face value without a corresponding cite. Note BCN numbers are directly from Sony and Pentax sales reports.

Jul 27, 2010 at 12:20 PM

mawz
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p.3 #15 · p.3 #15 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

HerbChong wrote:
i've already got the reports. i told you what i am legally allowed to. if you want the rest, you will have to pay.

Herb...

That's nice, but completely fails to prove your point. I see no reason to put any stock in your assertions if I can't see the numbers you're basing them on and it's incumbent on you to support your own arguments with cites, not on me.

The fact that they're supposedly from paid reports and can't be publicly released functionally means that they're useless for citing in a discussion.

Jul 27, 2010 at 12:32 PM

HerbChong
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p.3 #16 · p.3 #16 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

JPM covers Japan Precision Instruments which includes most of the tech industry in that country. these numbers are in line with the other two banks i have mentioned and with other companies such as Mitsubishi UFJ, Goldman Sachs, Deutche Bank, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and about half a dozen other companies that cover either Precision Equipment which includes the major Japanese camera manufacturers or the camera industry specifically. all of their numbers and market shares are roughly in line with this JPM excerpt. BCN's numbers have been at odds with global sales figures and market shares for years and i have ignored them for that reason.

here are unit sales by all of the DSLR manufacturers. except for Canon which uses Calendar Year = Fiscal Year, all other companies report Fiscal Year ending in March so 2010 is March 2010 annual report and Canon is the end of 2009 for the same period. the formatting is going to be weird since i can't post an HTML table. note: DSLR includes anything with interchangeable lenses. rounding errors means that the totals don't add up exactly to the totals.

millions 2007 2008 2009 2010
Nikon 2.09 3.09 3.42 3.67
Canon 2.53 3.2 3.8 4.4
Sony 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.1
Pentax 0.3 0.35 0.23 0.3
Olympus 0.25 0.5 0.4 0.55
Panasonic 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.3
Fujifilm 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.02
Samsung 0.02 0.05 0.1 0.1
SIGMA 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
LEICA 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Mamiya 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Global 5.8 7.8 9.1 10.5

Herb...

Lotusm50 wrote:
So, do you have these reports? If so, let us know specifically what they say. Are you sure JP Morgan profiles the camera market? I've seen Nomura and Mitsubishi Bank reports on the industry in the past, so I know they cover the industry, but I have3n't seen thier reports for a while. Not sure JP Morgan would bother with what is purely a Japanese market (and ultimately not that big, relatively speaking), and with most of the companies in the sector probably the client of a Japanese Bank. But if you've got camera industry data from JP Morgan (or...Show more →

Edited on Jul 27, 2010 at 12:45 PM · View previous versions

Jul 27, 2010 at 12:42 PM

HerbChong
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p.3 #17 · p.3 #17 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

useless to you only.

Herb...

mawz wrote:
The fact that they're supposedly from paid reports and can't be publicly released functionally means that they're useless for citing in a discussion.

Jul 27, 2010 at 12:43 PM

mawz
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p.3 #18 · p.3 #18 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

HerbChong wrote:
JPM covers Japan Precision Instruments which includes most of the tech industry in that country. these numbers are in line with the other two banks i have mentioned and with other companies such as Mitsubishi UFJ, Goldman Sachs, Deutche Bank, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and about half a dozen other companies that cover either Precision Equipment which includes the major Japanese camera manufacturers or the camera industry specifically. all of their numbers and market shares are roughly in line with this JPM excerpt. BCN's numbers have been at odds with global sales figures and market shares for years and...Show more →

And that's exactly what I've been asking for. Actual sourced numbers

Note that the Pentax numbers track pretty well with what I was expecting (drop for FY 2008, recovered for FY2009, which is the 2010 numbers you list). The Sony's are much better than I was expecting though, the 200k bump from FY2008 through FY2009 argues that somebody somewhere actually liked the low-end models.

Jul 27, 2010 at 12:49 PM

mawz
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p.3 #19 · p.3 #19 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

HerbChong wrote:
useless to you only.

Herb...

To me and to anybody else reading the thread. Now that you've posted actual sourced numbers in response to Lotus50m, we can comment on more than the BCN numbers for Japan.

Jul 27, 2010 at 12:50 PM

Mr.Lindy
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p.3 #20 · p.3 #20 · T. Hogan: Sony may be ditching FF

Thank You !

Very handy to know how most everyone are doing on the planet, not just in Japan.

Herb,

Any idea if Hassy outsells Mamiya ?

HerbChong wrote:
JPM covers Japan Precision Instruments which includes most of the tech industry in that country. these numbers are in line with the other two banks i have mentioned and with other companies such as Mitsubishi UFJ, Goldman Sachs, Deutche Bank, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and about half a dozen other companies that cover either Precision Equipment which includes the major Japanese camera manufacturers or the camera industry specifically. all of their numbers and market shares are roughly in line with this JPM excerpt. BCN's numbers have been at odds with global sales figures and market shares for years and...Show more →

Edited on Jul 29, 2010 at 03:39 PM · View previous versions

Jul 27, 2010 at 01:35 PM

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