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The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?

  
 
wordfool
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p.2 #1 · p.2 #1 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


nathanlake wrote:
A lot of photographers are going to scream and holler that no AI will ever replace a good photographer. Unfortunately, I believe them to be wrong. I have been working in the field of AI since about 2005 and I can assure you that most commercial images will be computer generated (i.e. AI) within 5-10 years.

Over the past few months, even before the latest wave of publically available AI applications, I have been talking with fellow photographers and writers about where AI is headed. Writing is a wash and will eventually be 100% AI-generated. In photography, the only area that
...Show more

I tend to disagree, not least because the "intelligence" part of the overhyped label AI is a bit of a misnomer. ChatGPT and its ilk are not intelligent. It's machine learning software relying on probabilistic pattern matching to generate text from a (giant) set of existing language data. The key here is "existing" data, and the same goes for the photographic equivalents of ChatGPT -- they rely on images already created for their data sets used to make up new images.

So, no, writing will not be 100% AI generated in the future because the lack of "intelligence" means the current AI bots cannot create anything genuinely new. They're basically giant plagiarism machines, which is fine if you just want to generate form content or replace grunt research work and this is where I think their strength lies -- they're increasingly being used already by the likes of AP (for writing basic business stories from PR and financial reports) and law firms (for doing some of the research grunt work of paralegals), for example. In that sense they'll free up humans to do more of the the actual thinking and creating to augment their new slave AI bots, potentially generating a whole new subset of jobs we haven't even begun to comprehend. That's how new technology has spurred us forward in the past and this IMO is no different.

Now, you could argue whether "genuinely new" is something that's valued in this day and age of ceaseless banal content, but that's a whole different debate and one that touches on something I strongly believe -- namely that we should not fear AI when it comes to the future of society but how those tools will be used by humans, just as it's humans, not facebook et al, that ultimately bear responsibility for the social media maelstrom that's turned society on its head in many respects. I fear human nature, not algorithms, because human greed/hubris/psychosis has been at the root of everything bad that's happened to society over the centuries. Technology merely facilitates.

Similarly with photography I don't see AI doing much more in the near future than what's increasingly already being done -- taking up the grunt-work. I knew someone 20 years ago who made a decent living as a product photographer until his job was offshored to the Philippines (and he decided to become a cop!). Assuming those jobs in the Philippines have not since been offshored again, I bet AI apps will soon come knocking. Same is probably true for basic catalog fashion photography, but I doubt many Western photogs make much of a living from that anymore just as I doubt many photogs make much of a living from stock photography anymore or travel photography. All grist to the AI mill. Publications and companies have long since succumbed to the bean counters and opted for cheap stock images (or their own image libraries) rather than commissioning a photographer. That ship has long since sailed.

But AI cannot generate a moment in time, a unique interaction of subject or light, which is where the much reduced business of photography still thrives. After all, we all know what a dragonfly or elephant looks like and there are a million stock images, yet still we get fascinated by wildlife photography awards, and still the likes of Nat Geo still commission photographers to take images of things and places we've all seen a million times before because that's the appeal of photography -- seeing something genuinely new or in a new context for the first time and, more importantly, knowing it was captured by some intrepid photographer somewhere in the world. It's all part of the story, and it's story, not just images, that has appeal.

I have no doubt AI will change the business of photography, and some jobs will disappear along the way. But just as AI can free up the intern at AP from re-writing press releases and enable them to help create genuinely new content, so it will also perhaps open up new avenues for photographers in the creative sector. Let's not forget that AI cannot create, it can only re-create. The media hype will die down, regulators will regulate (and seem to have already started in Italy), and machine learning bots will become just another technological tool in society to be used for good or bad depending on the humans controlling them.

/rant



Mar 31, 2023 at 04:13 PM
nathanlake
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p.2 #2 · p.2 #2 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


I feel you are dramatically underestimating the capability of AI. But since there is no proof that I can present in this type of forum, I can only wait and see how it unfolds over the next year or two. I feel you are going to be more shocked than most when it becomes obvious what AI is capable of doing. And most people are going to be shocked to realize that AI is actually capable of creativity on par with humans.


Apr 01, 2023 at 10:21 AM
nathanlake
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p.2 #3 · p.2 #3 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


Levi can claim this is about diversity, and I can see how it would make it easier to find whatever ethnic group you wanted to represent. No calls to the agency, just boot up the computer and create the model you're looking for. However, this is all about money. No agencies to deal with, no models to negotiate with, just create whatever you want in a matter of seconds or minutes. And after you're done, if it turns out you don't like the look of the model that you created, just change it. No reshooting, no hassle. No human resources issues. And besides, the AI generated model works 24 hours a day 7 days a week without overtime.


Apr 01, 2023 at 10:26 AM
chez
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p.2 #4 · p.2 #4 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


nathanlake wrote:
I feel you are dramatically underestimating the capability of AI. But since there is no proof that I can present in this type of forum, I can only wait and see how it unfolds over the next year or two. I feel you are going to be more shocked than most when it becomes obvious what AI is capable of doing. And most people are going to be shocked to realize that AI is actually capable of creativity on par with humans.


Letís also face it, itís very rare a photo today has anything unique about it that was not taken before. This expands to all forms of art including writing, moviesÖ



Apr 01, 2023 at 11:02 AM
wordfool
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p.2 #5 · p.2 #5 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


nathanlake wrote:
I feel you are dramatically underestimating the capability of AI. But since there is no proof that I can present in this type of forum, I can only wait and see how it unfolds over the next year or two. I feel you are going to be more shocked than most when it becomes obvious what AI is capable of doing. And most people are going to be shocked to realize that AI is actually capable of creativity on par with humans.


Exactly... we have no idea how it will unfold over the next 5-10 years, but I currently see much more in the way of hype from people who don't really understand the technology than I do anything close to a "threat to humanity". Gimmicky examples and wild speculation are not the same as objective, fact based opinions and forecasts from people who actually know the limits of the technology. I consider Facebook and TikTok a bigger current threat to humanity than any AI chatbot TBH.

Hype and doom-mongering generate clicks, the currency of today's media and social media. Beyond that I have yet to see any evidence of AI actually fundamentally changing anything economically, politically, or socially. Maybe it will or maybe it won't. At this stage no-one really knows, not least because of the giant wildcard in all this -- humans.




Apr 01, 2023 at 01:53 PM
chez
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p.2 #6 · p.2 #6 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


wordfool wrote:
Exactly... we have no idea how it will unfold over the next 5-10 years, but I currently see much more in the way of hype from people who don't really understand the technology than I do anything close to a "threat to humanity". Gimmicky examples and wild speculation are not the same as objective, fact based opinions and forecasts from people who actually know the limits of the technology. I consider Facebook and TikTok a bigger current threat to humanity than any AI chatbot TBH.

Hype and doom-mongering generate clicks, the currency of today's media and social media. Beyond that
...Show more

Here is some reality from misuse of AI.


https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/03/rising-scams-use-ai-to-mimic-voices-of-loved-ones-in-financial-distress/amp/


Letís not even get into deep fakes which is really at its infancy. 10 years from now who knows what reality will be.



Apr 01, 2023 at 04:19 PM
eeneryma
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p.2 #7 · p.2 #7 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


chez wrote:
Here is some reality from misuse of AI.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/03/rising-scams-use-ai-to-mimic-voices-of-loved-ones-in-financial-distress/amp/

Letís not even get into deep fakes which is really at its infancy. 10 years from now who knows what reality will be.



"More than 1,000 tech leaders, researchers and others signed an open letter urging a moratorium on the development of the most powerful artificial intelligence systems":

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/technology/ai-artificial-intelligence-musk-risks.html

This scares me...

Steve



Apr 01, 2023 at 08:18 PM
nathanlake
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p.2 #8 · p.2 #8 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


The top minds in the world of AI call for a suspension in the training of more powerful AI systems out of fear that we will lose control of these systems.

https://youtu.be/8OpW5qboDDs



Apr 02, 2023 at 04:38 AM
nathanlake
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p.2 #9 · p.2 #9 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


You haven't got 5 years to figure it out.

timn421 wrote:
I still can't get my head around how AI will effect some photographers (weddings, real estate, architecture) as much as others. As a commercial photographer, I am definitely worried about what's going to be happening in 5-10 years from now.




Apr 02, 2023 at 04:41 AM
nathanlake
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p.2 #10 · p.2 #10 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


The top minds in the world of AI call for a suspension in the training of more powerful AI systems out of fear that we will lose control of these systems.

https://youtu.be/8OpW5qboDDs



Apr 02, 2023 at 04:42 AM
 


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p.2 #11 · p.2 #11 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


chez wrote:
Letís also face it, itís very rare a photo today has anything unique about it that was not taken before. This expands to all forms of art including writing, moviesÖ


Optimistically, maybe we'll see a revival of creativity as people slowly grow bored of regurgitated AI nonsense.

I fear the massive influx of AI-generated content we're seeing when I extrapolate out to the future: AI trained on AI-generated content that was trained on AI-generated content that was ... etc.



Apr 04, 2023 at 10:49 AM
photonwalk
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p.2 #12 · p.2 #12 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


nathanlake wrote:
The top minds in the world of AI call for a suspension in the training of more powerful AI systems out of fear that we will lose control of these systems.

https://youtu.be/8OpW5qboDDs


I can't understand these types of arguments. How do they propose they stop people, exactly?

Take Bitcoin, torrenting, or encryption as examples.



Apr 04, 2023 at 10:51 AM
wordfool
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p.2 #13 · p.2 #13 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


nathanlake wrote:
The top minds in the world of AI call for a suspension in the training of more powerful AI systems out of fear that we will lose control of these systems.

https://youtu.be/8OpW5qboDDs


I chuckled at Elon's signature considering he's become the king (alongside Zuckerberg) of enabling social media to "flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth". Sure, we don't want AI to turbocharge that trend, but it would be nice if someone actually tried to do something tangible to address the current staggering levels of human- and bot-generated garbage online. Sadly it's greed and hubris that seem to determine the course of technological advancements, not social considerations.



Apr 04, 2023 at 10:38 PM
Danpbphoto
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p.2 #14 · p.2 #14 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


wordfool wrote:
I chuckled at Elon's signature considering he's become the king (alongside Zuckerberg) of enabling social media to "flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth". Sure, we don't want AI to turbocharge that trend, but it would be nice if someone actually tried to do something tangible to address the current staggering levels of human- and bot-generated garbage online. Sadly it's greed and hubris that seem to determine the course of technological advancements, not social considerations.

I did not read this entire post...the last few gave a sense of what AI(and somebody has to create a template for AI to do this) can and will do! I am leaving "social media" out of it...what happened to common sense? Is that outdated(rhetorical question)? Or going to be?
Dan




Apr 05, 2023 at 01:15 PM
Danpbphoto
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p.2 #15 · p.2 #15 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


nathanlake wrote:
The top minds in the world of AI call for a suspension in the training of more powerful AI systems out of fear that we will lose control of these systems.

https://youtu.be/8OpW5qboDDs

Nathan I admit I DID NOT review the YT link.
My question is.....AI didnot develop itself!( and the ! does not mean anything negative but just respectful emphasis) Someone wrote "the computer lingo" to make AI what it is now and will become. AI has NOT replaced humans yet! Just my thought and comment.
Nice discussion!
Dan




Apr 05, 2023 at 01:22 PM
EB-1
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p.2 #16 · p.2 #16 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


nathanlake wrote:
The top minds in the world of AI call for a suspension in the training of more powerful AI systems out of fear that we will lose control of these systems.


Yeah, SkyNet soon will be making Schwartzengegger Robots.
They will come to crush your R5s, A1s, Z9s and 600/4s.

EBH



Apr 05, 2023 at 07:42 PM
X-ray
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p.2 #17 · p.2 #17 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


Age has its benefits. Iím old enough now and look at the past and see the future much more clearly. Iím happily retired now but spent just shy of 55 years as a commercial photographer and studio owner. I did a huge part of my business working with high profile companies including the fashion industry, HealthKnit, London Fog, Palm Beach and Leviís. I did the ad photography for these folks for years. I also had two medium size retail department store chains I did catalogs and ads for.

Whenís the last time you heard about separation negatives, litho strippers, dot etchers, paste up artists, type setters and the list goes on? Most of you have never heard of these jobs because they disappeared because of technological advances. Real people did these jobs just a few years ago then scanners, computers and digital cameras put them out of jobs.

When I got into the business retouching was either airbrush or dye retouching on transparencies. We shot 4x5, 8x10 and even 11x14 chromes so we could get dye retouching or in special cases emulsion stripping on transparencies. These were all slow and expensive processes that took a very skilled person.

Move forward a few years, the PC computer and drum scanners came about. Several companies introduced retouching system that required major investments and infrastructure. Cost ran into the millions and twenty plus years ago the cost in my area was $400/hour. That would be around $1000/hr in todays dollars.

Again move forward to now. Adobe and numerous other companies offer cheap or free retouching programs. Computers and digital cameras are dirt cheap and inkjet printers have replaced labs. Right now I can name a half dozen prepress houses that went out of business because of this and can introduce you to a good size group that became unemployed because of this.

Fashion shoots can be insanely expensive even in the studio. Things go wrong and delays occur. Models get sick and children are temperamental. The wrong clothing or wrong sizes are delivered and the makeup artist doesnít show. On location weather, travel, pulling together a crew and photographer plus transporting models and equipment plus accommodations for everyone including food. A shoot can be huge and crazy expensive.

Consider the cost savings, Itís huge too. Every penny counts now.

Iíve been predicting this for several years now and think itíll be the norm in two years. You can bet your behind Adobe and others are working on the AI addition to their creative suite and as soon as itís up and running itíll be on the market.

If I were still working Iíd be looking to a way to stay in business because commercial photography is headed the same direction as the dinosaurs and DoDo bird.

Best of luck!



Apr 06, 2023 at 09:11 AM
ftllens
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p.2 #18 · p.2 #18 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


Yeah with Clo3d, Unreal 5.1, GPT 4 plus something like Midjourney V5 soon you won't need models or scenes or lights etc.

A year ago we thought it'd be like 5 years away, but that 5 years progress was done already. A few months after that this Q1 it got even crazier with generations refining the fake AI gen glow with photo realistic renders.

Another thing to consider is that the current and next generation will have personalized generated ads to resonate with them. Any race, gender, or aesthetic can be generated pretty easily.

Video is not that far off either (under 3 years eta now).

Now with the self improving model hybrids I wouldn't be surprised if the timeline keeps getting shorter.

It's awesome that it's going to let anyone create based on just their imagination though. Yeah there's data theft but copypastas happen so fast even in manufacturing nowadays.

gpt midjourney
https://youtu.be/Asg1e_IYzR8

stable diffusion chimera



auto-gen if you wanna try messing with it
https://github.com/Xerxemi/sdweb-auto-MBW



Apr 06, 2023 at 12:38 PM
MRomine
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p.2 #19 · p.2 #19 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


chez wrote:
Letís also face it, itís very rare a photo today has anything unique about it that was not taken before.


Except the people in the photos. Event photography, sports, weddings, portraiture anything involving real people in real moments doing real things.



Apr 06, 2023 at 06:44 PM
RickPJ
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p.2 #20 · p.2 #20 · The Beginning Of The End Of Fashion Photography As We Know It?


I think this cat is way out of the bag and has been for awhile. I could probably make the case for blaming us to a great extent. We do, after all, offer to our clients a complete makeover in a "can". Want to lose a few years? Got that. Want to have an 18 year old body? No sweat. Crow's feet? Gone in five minutes. We have been doing this for years. Now the part that is going away is us. Something else can do it. Will there some day be a pre-derivative work photographer. You know. Sort of like the guy who builds the dress frame?

Of course the Levi's argument that this process increases diversity is fatuous and obviously racist. But it is just about as shallow as a great many people are these days. It hinges on the notion that diversity is about seeing someone like yourself. Well that is what the argument was for segregation. Whites see whites and blacks see blacks and nary the twain shall meet. They are imagining a world of fashion where all fashion looks just like...well....me. And you. And....

"Just send me a snapshot of your face, answer a few questions, and in less than 24 hours we will send you your layout in Playboy." Bordering on creepy? Well not until the customer is someone who sends in a picture of the girl next door and "in less than 24 hours we will send you your layout in Playboy." And what would people pay to have adult products where the product is a collection of "people you know"?

I see new laws coming that can protect a person's individual image. But the problem is that we can constrain this stuff here in the US, or Canada or..... but who is going to shut down the boiler rooms in India? Who is going to go after the guy in Spain who is creating these derivative works in his basement?

As I said. This is a done deal. But before we whine too much, we need to realize that the jobs of many if not most people will fall to AI. Work is just becoming obsolete. X-Ray's post should remind us of the (recent for some of us) past and how quickly these folks fell. I can imagine a wedding venue with fully automated photography. All it would take is strategically placed cameras and computers comparing what they see to its library of "perfect" images. Self driving cars are here. Amazon has replaced the variety store almost single-handedly. I don't need an x-ray tech to do my chest x-ray. Tele-medicine with remote telemetry is old stuff now. Robot soldiers make war seem almost game like. Until someone wins and the robots are turned on the losing people. Someone post here a single job that cannot be done by some form of AI. I'm waiting. (And before you say the performing arts, google auto-tune. You haven't heard a real recording artist or major act sing in a decade.)

I know I have gone pretty woooo-hoooo here. But this stuff is real. Already.

Five to 10 years is my time horizon. And it will hit us like a fire hose. I side with the folks who believe this is very very dangerous. Most of us have the confidence to believe, despite an entire human history of evidence to the contrary, that good will prevail. Cooler heads will reign. Thoughtful decisions will be made. By whom will these decisions be made? The oligarchy we have running American business and the government they own? See any evidence of "cooler heads prevailing" in anything now?

But surely the government will protect us......you bet they will. Sure.




Apr 06, 2023 at 08:01 PM
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