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groob wrote:
Ricci said something like Nikon manufactured 12,000 Z8s last month and that it has the capacity to produce more Z8s than it did Z9s at launch. Can anyone put the 12,000 number in context? For example, how many Z8s would we expect Nikon to sell in a year (or a quarter)? Is there any way to extrapolate from that 12k number an estimate for wait times?
Based on serial number registrations, Nikon sold at least 75,000 D850 bodies in the first 2 years it was announced and that number is closer to 750,000 (as of 2019) if you include all D8XX bodies going back to the D800. The existing D8XX customer base is probably the most likely to upgrade to a Z8. Add to that any existing Z9 owners who want the same performance in a smaller body. That is VERY rough obviously, but it sounds like Nikon is more prepared for the demand than with the Z9 release, and many of the COVID-related supply chain issues that affected Z9 production are either resolved or much improved.
I think it's too hard to speculate, but my personal guess would be that it will be significantly better than Z9 availability.
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