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Archive 2023 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!

  
 
1bwana1
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p.4 #1 · p.4 #1 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


RoamingScott wrote:
I see no need for a new sensor in a Z850. If you want to control cost you use the Z7 sensor, if you want to make a real splash you use the Z9 sensor. If you want to disappoint everyone you use the noisy, dog slow A7R4 sensor.

The Z850 needs to be around 45mp and Nikon has 2 fine options already.

If the camera is trying to be something else, like a high megapixel variant, then youíll need the latest rebranded Sony sensor added to the portfolio.



Of course what you say makes sense.

But what I am hearing is that it is a stacked sensor, that it is not the Z9 sensor, that it is a new sensor, and that this sensor was delayed for some period of time so that is why the Z8 took so long. It will be in limited supply after release so get your pre-orders in as soon as available.



Feb 26, 2023 at 11:39 PM
novalaker
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p.4 #2 · p.4 #2 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


1bwana1 wrote:
Of course what you say makes sense.

But what I am hearing is that it is a stacked sensor, that it is not the Z9 sensor, that it is a new sensor, and that this sensor was delayed for some period of time so that is why the Z8 took so long. It will be in limited supply after release so get your pre-orders in as soon as available.


Interesting, I agree with what was said before about a stacked, lower-res sensor not making much business sense. It seems like a poor use of economies of scale. I guess they need to differentiate with the Z9 some, but if it's going to be lower res it's gotta be FAST. I guess we will see. As much as I appreciate how close NIkon plays it to the vest, I gotta admit it's nice knowing what's coming to some extent like with Sony.



Feb 27, 2023 at 03:51 AM
Steve Spencer
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p.4 #3 · p.4 #3 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


1bwana1 wrote:
Of course what you say makes sense.

But what I am hearing is that it is a stacked sensor, that it is not the Z9 sensor, that it is a new sensor, and that this sensor was delayed for some period of time so that is why the Z8 took so long. It will be in limited supply after release so get your pre-orders in as soon as available.


Well that is interesting news and your track record on what you hear has been pretty impressive. I hope you are right. If it is a new stacked sensor, then it likely is in between the 24 MP stacked sensor that we saw in the A9 and A9 II for Sony and the 45 MP sensor we saw in the Z9. Something like a 36 MP sensor (or perhaps just a little less resolution) that could deliver 4K video would make a lot of sense. And if they are able to have really fast sensor scan speed at least what is in the Z9, then they could go with just the electronic shutter again and that would make sense too. I hope they pay just as much attention to the viewfinder experience as well. If they can make this camera and keep the cost around $4,000 I think it would be a winner.

Oh, and I agree with Scott that I think the 45 MP sensor in the Z7 and Z7 II is better than the 61 MP sensor in the Sony A7r IV and V and I am not at all convinced that Nikon should use that sensor, but I think they probably will either in the Z8 or in the Z7 III. They will tweak it of course, but I agree with Scott that such high resolution seems to stretch the capabilities of the sensor too far at this point and the increase in noise at high ISO for my purposes doesn't make the increase in resolution worth it.



Feb 27, 2023 at 08:52 AM
1bwana1
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p.4 #4 · p.4 #4 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!




Steve Spencer wrote:
Well that is interesting news and your track record on what you hear has been pretty impressive. I hope you are right. If it is a new stacked sensor, then it likely is in between the 24 MP stacked sensor that we saw in the A9 and A9 II for Sony and the 45 MP sensor we saw in the Z9. Something like a 36 MP sensor (or perhaps just a little less resolution) that could deliver 4K video would make a lot of sense. And if they are able to have really fast sensor scan speed at least
...Show more


I am also not a fan of the 60mpx Sony sensor that is in the A7RIV/A7RV for the same reasons you mentioned. It is one reason I haven't upgraded to the Leica M11 which also uses that sensor. The M11 version of that sensor has the same ISO 64 that a Nikon version would likely have.

I am getting no reliable wispers on the resolution of the Z8 sensor. But have heard that it is "absolutely " a stacked sensor. Also that is a new sensor, and that the sourcing of the sensor has been responsible for the delays. I find it hard to beleive that Nikon has 60 mpx stacked sensor. That seems a step too far. I suppose it could be a 50mpx to upscale it from the Z9. But more likely it seems a slightly smaller than the Z9 makes sense. Finally it could be in the same mid 40 mpx like the D850 was and Nikon didn't use the Z9 sensor for soucing reasons.

Still more we don't know than we do. But my guess is that this is going to be that camera you have been waiting for. Get the credit card ready, and get on the "unofficial" list at your camera store now. I hear the sensor supply will be a very limiting factor even after release.



Feb 27, 2023 at 10:15 AM
JadedWriter
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p.4 #5 · p.4 #5 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


Anybody that shoots either indoor events or shoots low light sports would be the demographic for a 24mp camera that basically shoots clean 10K iso. It's not a birding camera (not everything needs to be a birding camera to be successful), but there's definitely a use case for this. I'd even be fine with a stacked version of the 20mp D6 sensor to be honest. And no I'm not running a bunch of indoor events through Topaz. I do not have time for that in my workflow.
novalaker wrote:
Interesting, I agree with what was said before about a stacked, lower-res sensor not making much business sense. It seems like a poor use of economies of scale. I guess they need to differentiate with the Z9 some, but if it's going to be lower res it's gotta be FAST. I guess we will see. As much as I appreciate how close NIkon plays it to the vest, I gotta admit it's nice knowing what's coming to some extent like with Sony.





Feb 27, 2023 at 10:23 AM
RoamingScott
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p.4 #6 · p.4 #6 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


You have to wonder if the Fuji X-HS2 of all things is putting some pressure on these companies with its very capable stacked sensor at $2500. There's not a better deal in photography right now than that camera.

This is WILD speculation...but...I suppose in theory that sensor design could be scaled up to FF for a 40mp sensor, and Nikon could simply have the pixel arrangement shifted from X-Trans to Bayer without major redevelopment. Possible that camera would have a base ISO of 100 which is still competitive in the larger market.

I'd be happy to trade 45mp down to 40mp for a nice downsizing of the body. I'm not so sure I'd want to go down to the mid 30s resolution wise.



Feb 27, 2023 at 10:34 AM
Ross Martin
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p.4 #7 · p.4 #7 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


Talk of the upcoming camera being another D850 moment for Nikon is intriguing (the D850 was my favorite and most productive camera before I started switching to ML). In some ways I feel like I now have my mirrorless D850 (and much more actually) in an A7RV I started shooting a few weeks ago. The camera has performed superbly for candid people photography with eye/face/body AF that seems to be reading my mind, and very good BIF/birds shooting with the 200-600mm at Florida wildlife refuges. My main shooting is always low-ISO landscape and I look forward to shooting it extensively for that in March/April. Bill Claffís tests on dynamic range are showing very impressive performance on the A7RV.

Iím still heavily invested in Nikon so am watching with interest at what March 25 reveals. I personally believe the A7RV has set a high bar for shooters like me (obviously not for those who are primarily doing BIF or fast action as A1 and Z9 and some Canons are still the choices there). The A7RV IBIS is top notch with the highest keeper rate Iíve experienced for 1/2-second handholding, and the EVF is simply glorious, the first that has made me quit thinking about the OVFís of old (I strongly prefer the Sonyís EVF to that of the Z9). Also the configurability of controls is unmatched by my Zís.

I will always love Nikon and I truly hope 2023 is an amazing year for them. Yes the Z9 was a huge step forward in the Z lineup but there is clearly more work to be done with other models. I find it interesting how the forums have become dominated by folks who prioritize being on the cutting edge of BIF. I also love shooting BIF a few times per year when Iím at certain locations, but 95% of my shooting is not that, so there are aspects of IQ, features, and handling that matter to me other than stacked sensors flying along at 20-30fps :-)

Edited on Feb 27, 2023 at 08:09 PM · View previous versions



Feb 27, 2023 at 10:48 AM
JadedWriter
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p.4 #8 · p.4 #8 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


If Nikon makes an equivalent to the X-H2S they might as well just bundle the 400 4.5 with it because I could see that being the go to birding combo in the future because none of the other systems have anything like that 4.5 lens when it comes to price and size.
RoamingScott wrote:
You have to wonder if the Fuji X-HS2 of all things is putting some pressure on these companies with its very capable stacked sensor at $2500. There's not a better deal in photography right now than that camera.

This is WILD speculation...but...I suppose in theory that sensor design could be scaled up to FF for a 40mp sensor, and Nikon could simply have the pixel arrangement shifted from X-Trans to Bayer without major redevelopment. Possible that camera would have a base ISO of 100 which is still competitive in the larger market.

I'd be happy to trade 45mp down to 40mp for
...Show more




Feb 27, 2023 at 10:52 AM
RoamingScott
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p.4 #9 · p.4 #9 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


Ross Martin wrote:
the EVF is simply glorious, the first that has made me quit thinking about the OVFís of old (I strongly prefer the Sonyís EVF to that of the Z9). Also the configurability of controls is unmatched by my Zís.


Maybe you haven't come across it with the kinds of photos you take, but have you noticed the degradation of EVF resolution while focusing in AF-C that so many talk about? I'm pretty sensitive to things like that, so I've always assumed it would bother me to no end.



Feb 27, 2023 at 10:53 AM
Ross Martin
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p.4 #10 · p.4 #10 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


RoamingScott wrote:
Maybe you haven't come across it with the kinds of photos you take, but have you noticed the degradation of EVF resolution while focusing in AF-C that so many talk about? I'm pretty sensitive to things like that, so I've always assumed it would bother me to no end.


Thatís a good question Scott. I had read negative comments in the past about the A1 EVF experience dropping resolution during AF. Perhaps Iím not as sensitive to seeing that happen, but so far I havenít noticed it. For composing I find the A7RV big view to be very immersive, it pulls me right into the scene, and analyzing shots in playback has been a revelation - I keep handing the camera to family members to check out what Iím seeing because it is just so gorgeous, closer to the feel of viewing a print rather than an electronic approximation. I think itís easier to be excited when the machine is new to me, so the weeks in the field shooting spring unfolding soon will tell me much more about the long-term viability of this setup for my needs.

Edited on Feb 27, 2023 at 02:15 PM · View previous versions



Feb 27, 2023 at 11:03 AM
1bwana1
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p.4 #11 · p.4 #11 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


Ross Martin wrote:
Thatís a good questions Scott. I had read negative comments in the past about the A1 EVF experience dropping resolution during AF. Perhaps Iím not as sensitive to seeing that happen, but so far I havenít noticed it. For composing I find the A7RV big view to be very immersive, it pulls me right into the scene, and analyzing shots in playback has been a revelation - I keep handing the camera to family members to check out what Iím seeing because it is just so gorgeous, closer to the feel of viewing a print rather than an electronic
...Show more

One of the things I like best about the A1/A7RV EVF is that the resolution is high enough that I feel i can now judge criticle sharpness when reviewing images in the field. Couple that with the smoth refresh, and lack of slideshow or blackout in A1 and it provieds a top notch user experience.

I have never been bothered by what Scott is speaking about, however I have read enough reports about it in certain circumstances to beleive that for some it is an issue they notice.



Feb 27, 2023 at 11:25 AM
caverunner17
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p.4 #12 · p.4 #12 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


IMHO, what makes sense in comparison to Sony / Canon for a spring 2023 release

Z70 with Expeed 7 and ideally IBIS to compete with the R7. They need a few more DX lenses though, or a few cheaper primes.

Z6III with Expeed 7 and updated AF -- the question is to keep the same sensor or move to a similar sensor as the A7IV?

Z7III with Expeed 7 and updated AF -- the question is to keep the same sensor or move to a similar sensor as the A7RV?

Fall 2023 / Spring 2024

Z5 II Expeed 7 and the sensor from the current Z6 to compete with the R8 / A7III

I don't fully understand the Z8 concept. Canon seems to sell plenty of R5 and R6's to wildlife folks without a stacked sensor. So does Sony with the A7IV and A7RV. Is Nikon's market share really big enough to support what would essentially be a gripless Z9 without cannibalizing sales from either the Z7III or Z9 itself?



Feb 27, 2023 at 12:13 PM
bs kite
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p.4 #13 · p.4 #13 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


1bwana1 wrote:
I am also not a fan of the 60mpx Sony sensor that is in the A7RIV/A7RV for the same reasons you mentioned. It is one reason I haven't upgraded to the Leica M11 which also uses that sensor. The M11 version of that sensor has the same ISO 64 that a Nikon version would likely have.

I am getting no reliable wispers on the resolution of the Z8 sensor. But have heard that it is "absolutely " a stacked sensor. Also that is a new sensor, and that the sourcing of the sensor has been responsible for the delays. I find
...Show more

Does "the sourcing of the sensor" refer to who will make the sensor?






Feb 27, 2023 at 12:15 PM
1bwana1
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p.4 #14 · p.4 #14 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!



bs kite wrote:
Does "the sourcing of the sensor" refer to who will make the sensor?



Yes. More accurately said who is making the sensor.



Feb 27, 2023 at 12:19 PM
bs kite
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p.4 #15 · p.4 #15 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


1bwana1 wrote:
Yes. More accurately said who is making the sensor.


You know much about this industry.

Can you speculate why there would be a delay in finding a sensor manufacturer in this case?








Feb 27, 2023 at 12:35 PM
1bwana1
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p.4 #16 · p.4 #16 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


bs kite wrote:
You know much about this industry.

Can you speculate why there would be a delay in finding a sensor manufacturer in this case?




I don't "know" anything in this case. Just heard something from someone in a position to know.

I don't think it is a matter of finding a company to make the sensors. That would be Sony, or Tower, or a hybrid of the two. It is just getting the numbers up to an acceptable level in a difficult manufacturing enviornment.

Yes, speculation is the right word to use in describing what we are doing here.



Feb 27, 2023 at 12:40 PM
bs kite
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p.4 #17 · p.4 #17 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


1bwana1 wrote:
I don't "know" anything in this case. Just heard something from someone in a position to know.

I don't think it is a matter of finding a company to make the sensors. That would be Sony, or Tower, or a hybrid of the two. It is just getting the numbers up to an acceptable level in a difficult manufacturing enviornment.

Yes, speculation is the right word to use in describing what we are doing here.


Thanks for speculating Steve



Feb 27, 2023 at 12:59 PM
tctmp
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p.4 #18 · p.4 #18 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


If it's 40-50MP stacked sensor from Sony, whether it's a different sensor from Z9 is a moot point. Sensor technology has plateaued for a while and I doubt this one will be much different if from the same manufacturer. It's pretty common to give almost identical chips different names anyway.

The question is what's the resolution and if it's stacked or not.

If it's 30+ stacked, then it means Nikon is taking a different direction and targeting sports for this model name instead of general all round performance of past D8** models.

If it's 40+ stacked, then it's just the baby Z9 people are hoping for, and depending on the price point, maybe with some spec/features dialed back somewhat. This will be my guess, and if so, they probably just reuse the Z9 sensor and be done.

If it's 60 non stacked, then it's taking the same approach of Sony A7RV by trying to squeeze out the last bits of usability out of it.

I do wish it's sourced from someone other than Sony. That can put some fire under Sony. But I'm not holding my breath until I see it.



Feb 27, 2023 at 01:02 PM
RoamingScott
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p.4 #19 · p.4 #19 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


tctmp wrote:
I do wish it's sourced from someone other than Sony. That can put some fire under Sony. But I'm not holding my breath until I see it.


Cameras across all brands are by and large putting out 99% similar images thanks to Sony's influence. The overall market is quite boring as a result, as most CMOS sensors generate the same looking images. It's why a lot of people who want a "different look" are moving to film and CCD sensor cameras.

The one exception to this is the pixel arrangement of the sensor and in-camera processing that Fuji does with their X cams, which renders quite a different looking file than you would normally get shooting RAW on Bayer and processing later.

And you're right, it makes zero difference who fabs the sensor. The output will be functionally identical to every similar sensor on the market. The only thing that matters is the stack.



Feb 27, 2023 at 01:20 PM
1bwana1
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p.4 #20 · p.4 #20 · Latest Nikon Rumors - March 25th!


caverunner17 wrote:
I don't fully understand the Z8 concept. Canon seems to sell plenty of R5 and R6's to wildlife folks without a stacked sensor. So does Sony with the A7IV and A7RV. Is Nikon's market share really big enough to support what would essentially be a gripless Z9 without cannibalizing sales from either the Z7III or Z9 itself?


---------------------------------------------

tctmp wrote:
If it's 30+ stacked, then it means Nikon is taking a different direction and targeting sports for this model name instead of general all round performance of past D8** models.


The D850 was the best "all arounder" DSLR ever made in many people's (including mine) opinion. The Z8 will be compared to the D850 in this role. It's release will be touted as another D850 moment. Performance benchmarks have changed significantly since the D850 was released. I think only a stacked sensor can give the equivlent/relative user experience in a mirrorless World as tha D850 did in the DSLR World. This is not all about super fast frame rates, I can see the Z8 having slower frames rates than the Z9 thus perserving its dominance as the pro sports/wildlife/action camera. Still the Z8 would be very competent in those areas.


tctmp wrote:
I do wish it's sourced from someone other than Sony. That can put some fire under Sony. But I'm not holding my breath until I see it.


I think the imaging layer would likely still be a Sony wafer, and have a Sony part number. But it is possible that that the memory/locig/processing layer could be done by Tower. So, it would then more accurately be called a hybrid manufactured sensor. Do know that this is the case, but there is whispering in the wind on this.




Feb 27, 2023 at 01:30 PM
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