PicGuy
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dolina wrote:
The market is now returning to the pre-1999 users
- professionals that make a living offer photo recording services
- enthusiasts with discretionary $$$ spend
This was mentioned by a very observant FM user about half a decade ago. Many boomers disagreed with him.
The plateauing of tech has more connection with lack of totally foreign & obvious innovation such as
- affordability of hardware that can be had with a 1-4 year phone contract. You can split the payment of a $1k smartphone over 12-48x within that contract
- after contract is done the telco will "push" you a new offer for your next smartphone. 1-Series bodies gets renewed within 6-9 months prior to Olympics that occurs every 4 years and you cannot pay for it over 12-48x within a 1-4 year period
- value proposition in terms of increased utility. Other than a camera I can use it to do emails, browse the web, message and calls through data, etc.
- simpler & fewer steps workflow to take photos and share them. No need to involve a Windows or macOS
- some aesthetic qualities like bokeh can be simulated and is being approved upon every ~12 months
Right now there's moves into periscope lenses that allows for longer focal lengths. One day I would not be surprised to see that tech and computational photography be able to simulate a 1200mm or 2400mm focal lengths within this decade. Why do that? Because Apple, Samsung and other brands need new features compelling enough to get people to return to a near 2 year replacement cycle. Typically replacement cycle now has lengthened to 3 years or longer.
Camera makers are making strides to address the cons of using ILCs like
- size
- weight
- $$$
Examples
1200mm: 1993 vs 2022 (29 years apart)
- $120k 1993 EF 1200mm f/5.6L USM 16.5kg
- $20k 2022 RF 1200mm f/8L IS USM 3.34kg
800mm: 2008 vs 2022 (14 years apart)
- $13k 2008 EF 800mm f/5.6L IS USM 4.5kg
- $6.5k 2022 Z 800mm f/6.3 VR S 2.35kg
Sure, they're an f-number slower but the body compensates for it. Previous flagship is now replaced with a relatively cheaper one.
An indicator that makers are focusing on new growth for cameras is the R&D spend on AF specific for animals & birds.
I've seen examples made by the R5, R3 and Z9 and I am seeing images being shared by owners that would have taken a lot of tries or very good luck to get certain birds in flight and animals moving erratically to be captured.
Back in 2017, a year before the RF mount was announced, I was approached by a start up photo studio owner wanting to buy the relevant parts of my EF system in a single lot. I havent been photographing much since 2015.
What I'd have left would be the birding lenses....Show more →
Computational photography will eventually bring in a whole new genre of photography. This will put tremendous pressure on dedicated camera makers and take a big cut out of their market share. "Dedicated cameras" will not be what people want which will be one device that takes the photo, processes it, stores it and shares it with whomever they choose. Smartphone tech already has 10x optical zooms, ultra high resolution sensors, multiple camera with optical zoom lenses and software that is leveraging this hardware to get amazing results. Plus, this tech is just starting to develop and in 5-10 years will provide amazing results for very low investment of time and money. They will also eliminate the need for an expensive computer and software to process images along with the inconvenience of doing post processing.
Imaging tech is about the only area left where smartphone makers can differentiate themselves from one another and this is driving innovation in this area at light speed. At some point they will offer devices that have a modified form to allow more robust imaging capability and this is when we will see the next transformation into a new era of photography. IMO, this will have an impact similar to going to digital from film and possibly a even a much larger impact because the hardware will be greatly transformed along with software.
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