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Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead

  
 
dolina
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p.4 #1 · p.4 #1 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


Bacalhau wrote:
Q3 before year's end? Leica still milking the special editions - just releasing the "Dawn" by Seal - special edition....likely a couple more sp's to get rid of old stock (after all they are just changing the shell)


45 month product cycle

- Jun 2015: Leica Q
- Mar 2019: Leica Q2
- Dec 2022: Leica Q3




Sep 21, 2022 at 12:07 PM
Bacalhau
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p.4 #2 · p.4 #2 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


PicGuy wrote:
The laws of physics don't have to change. It will come down to something similar to what happened with smartphone screen resolution. Smartphone screens kept getting higher and higher in resolution until they hit a point where more resolution didn't matter to the user because the human eye could no longer perceive any difference between HD and 3k/4k on such a small screen. The same thing will happen with camera gear as time passes and smartphone tech advances. The small devices that we will be using will provide more than sufficient image quality and this will make the large, expensive
...Show more

sure - what about sensor size, and will assume printing to paper it's over...and then movie makers/directors will be just using a smart phone for the next Star Wars saga



Sep 21, 2022 at 03:45 PM
Bacalhau
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p.4 #3 · p.4 #3 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


dolina wrote:
45 month product cycle

- Jun 2015: Leica Q
- Mar 2019: Leica Q2
- Dec 2022: Leica Q3


Well, and Leica has been so reliable as far as delivery dates with everything else...
Gopro still going strong it seems, and actually there ar ealternatives now
Missing are waterproof cameras
either way won't affect coming sooner or later - 28mm fixed lens for color it's too narrow for me
Missing is the fully waterproof cameras, but it was always a niche market - maybe a underwater able smartphone still coming in the future (who uses the phone to actually make phone calls these days? lol)



Sep 21, 2022 at 03:54 PM
PicGuy
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p.4 #4 · p.4 #4 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


Bacalhau wrote:
sure - what about sensor size, and will assume printing to paper it's over...and then movie makers/directors will be just using a smart phone for the next Star Wars saga


Into the foreseeable future there will always be high end gear. At some point it will be unaffordable for 99.9% of the population though.



Sep 21, 2022 at 04:11 PM
dolina
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p.4 #5 · p.4 #5 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


Bacalhau wrote:
Well, and Leica has been so reliable as far as delivery dates with everything else...
Gopro still going strong it seems, and actually there ar ealternatives now
Missing are waterproof cameras
either way won't affect coming sooner or later - 28mm fixed lens for color it's too narrow for me
Missing is the fully waterproof cameras, but it was always a niche market - maybe a underwater able smartphone still coming in the future (who uses the phone to actually make phone calls these days? lol)


COVID messed up everyone's supplychain. So I wouldnt be that hard on them.



Sep 21, 2022 at 08:48 PM
dolina
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p.4 #6 · p.4 #6 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


PicGuy wrote:
Into the foreseeable future there will always be high end gear. At some point it will be unaffordable for 99.9% of the population though.


If you compare the 7.85 million 2022 forecasted worldwide shipment of digital still cameras vs 8 billion people by Nov 2022 then it comes out as roughly top 0.1%.

Smartphone worldwide annual shipments are nearly 20% of the worldwide population.



Sep 22, 2022 at 01:45 AM
snegron7
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p.4 #7 · p.4 #7 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


I find it ironic that my 80 year old mom called me yesterday to help her set up a new point & shoot camera she just purchased for an upcoming trip. She got it at a local retail store but told me there were pretty much no point and shoots anywhere.

I decided to cgeck online to see if I could get her a better option than what she purchased (a flimsy Polaroid point and shoot), but there were very limited options available online as well! I was hoping to get her an inexpensive Panasonic T series point and shoot, but it looks like they have been discontinued!



Sep 22, 2022 at 05:56 AM
Jesse Evans
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p.4 #8 · p.4 #8 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead



snegron7 wrote:
I find it ironic that my 80 year old mom called me yesterday to help her set up a new point & shoot camera she just purchased for an upcoming trip. She got it at a local retail store but told me there were pretty much no point and shoots anywhere.

I decided to cgeck online to see if I could get her a better option than what she purchased (a flimsy Polaroid point and shoot), but there were very limited options available online as well! I was hoping to get her an inexpensive Panasonic T series point and shoot,
...Show more

Our elders always use outdated technology so itís not that ironic. My mom can barely operate her iPhone much less figure out how to take a photograph with it. My brothers 2 year old on the other hand can use one just fine and will have little use for a point and shoot.



Sep 22, 2022 at 08:45 AM
PicGuy
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p.4 #9 · p.4 #9 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


dolina wrote:
If you compare the 7.85 million 2022 forecasted worldwide shipment of digital still cameras vs 8 billion people by Nov 2022 then it comes out as roughly top 0.1%.

Smartphone worldwide annual shipments are nearly 20% of the worldwide population.


The next big hit to ILC sales is the boomer generation dying off and/or not buying gear like they did before they retired. Gen X is the next shoe to fall. Young people aren't interested much in ILC cameras. MILCs have given ILCs a temporary boost in sales. This technology is plateauing quickly and there will be less and less incentive for people to upgrade. Plateauing technology is a big part of the reason for DSLR sales to drop like a rock over the past 5-10 years. The same is occurring with smartphones with the exception of their imaging components which are advancing at a very fast pace.



Sep 22, 2022 at 10:59 PM
 


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dolina
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p.4 #10 · p.4 #10 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


PicGuy wrote:
The next big hit to ILC sales is the boomer generation dying off and/or not buying gear like they did before they retired. Gen X is the next shoe to fall. Young people aren't interested much in ILC cameras. MILCs have given ILCs a temporary boost in sales. This technology is plateauing quickly and there will be less and less incentive for people to upgrade. Plateauing technology is a big part of the reason for DSLR sales to drop like a rock over the past 5-10 years. The same is occurring with smartphones with the exception of their imaging components
...Show more

The market is now returning to the pre-1999 users

- professionals that make a living offer photo recording services

- enthusiasts with discretionary $$$ spend

This was mentioned by a very observant FM user about half a decade ago. Many boomers disagreed with him.

The plateauing of tech has more connection with lack of totally foreign & obvious innovation such as

- affordability of hardware that can be had with a 1-4 year phone contract. You can split the payment of a $1k smartphone over 12-48x within that contract

- after contract is done the telco will "push" you a new offer for your next smartphone. 1-Series bodies gets renewed within 6-9 months prior to Olympics that occurs every 4 years and you cannot pay for it over 12-48x within a 1-4 year period

- value proposition in terms of increased utility. Other than a camera I can use it to do emails, browse the web, message and calls through data, etc.

- simpler & fewer steps workflow to take photos and share them. No need to involve a Windows or macOS

- some aesthetic qualities like bokeh can be simulated and is being approved upon every ~12 months

Right now there's moves into periscope lenses that allows for longer focal lengths. One day I would not be surprised to see that tech and computational photography be able to simulate a 1200mm or 2400mm focal lengths within this decade. Why do that? Because Apple, Samsung and other brands need new features compelling enough to get people to return to a near 2 year replacement cycle. Typically replacement cycle now has lengthened to 3 years or longer.

Camera makers are making strides to address the cons of using ILCs like

- size

- weight

- $$$

Examples

1200mm: 1993 vs 2022 (29 years apart)

- $120k 1993 EF 1200mm f/5.6L USM 16.5kg

- $20k 2022 RF 1200mm f/8L IS USM 3.34kg

800mm: 2008 vs 2022 (14 years apart)

- $13k 2008 EF 800mm f/5.6L IS USM 4.5kg

- $6.5k 2022 Z 800mm f/6.3 VR S 2.35kg

Sure, they're an f-number slower but the body compensates for it. Previous flagship is now replaced with a relatively cheaper one.

An indicator that makers are focusing on new growth for cameras is the R&D spend on AF specific for animals & birds.

I've seen examples made by the R5, R3 and Z9 and I am seeing images being shared by owners that would have taken a lot of tries or very good luck to get certain birds in flight and animals moving erratically to be captured.

Back in 2017, a year before the RF mount was announced, I was approached by a start up photo studio owner wanting to buy the relevant parts of my EF system in a single lot. I havent been photographing much since 2015.

What I'd have left would be the birding lenses.



Sep 22, 2022 at 11:14 PM
dolina
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p.4 #11 · p.4 #11 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


Jesse Evans wrote:
Our elders always use outdated technology so itís not that ironic. My mom can barely operate her iPhone much less figure out how to take a photograph with it. My brothers 2 year old on the other hand can use one just fine and will have little use for a point and shoot.


Buying out of date tech has more to do with cost.

Old tech also show a limited button selection.

That's what they grew up with and that's what they will expect in the future.

People like the illusion of choice but prefer being presented with the 2-3 best options



Sep 22, 2022 at 11:49 PM
PicGuy
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p.4 #12 · p.4 #12 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


dolina wrote:
The market is now returning to the pre-1999 users

- professionals that make a living offer photo recording services

- enthusiasts with discretionary $$$ spend

This was mentioned by a very observant FM user about half a decade ago. Many boomers disagreed with him.

The plateauing of tech has more connection with lack of totally foreign & obvious innovation such as

- affordability of hardware that can be had with a 1-4 year phone contract. You can split the payment of a $1k smartphone over 12-48x within that contract

- after contract is done the telco will "push" you a new offer for your next
...Show more

Computational photography will eventually bring in a whole new genre of photography. This will put tremendous pressure on dedicated camera makers and take a big cut out of their market share. "Dedicated cameras" will not be what people want which will be one device that takes the photo, processes it, stores it and shares it with whomever they choose. Smartphone tech already has 10x optical zooms, ultra high resolution sensors, multiple camera with optical zoom lenses and software that is leveraging this hardware to get amazing results. Plus, this tech is just starting to develop and in 5-10 years will provide amazing results for very low investment of time and money. They will also eliminate the need for an expensive computer and software to process images along with the inconvenience of doing post processing.

Imaging tech is about the only area left where smartphone makers can differentiate themselves from one another and this is driving innovation in this area at light speed. At some point they will offer devices that have a modified form to allow more robust imaging capability and this is when we will see the next transformation into a new era of photography. IMO, this will have an impact similar to going to digital from film and possibly a even a much larger impact because the hardware will be greatly transformed along with software.



Sep 23, 2022 at 07:10 AM
dolina
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p.4 #13 · p.4 #13 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


PicGuy wrote:
Computational photography will eventually bring in a whole new genre of photography. This will put tremendous pressure on dedicated camera makers and take a big cut out of their market share. "Dedicated cameras" will not be what people want which will be one device that takes the photo, processes it, stores it and shares it with whomever they choose. Smartphone tech already has 10x optical zooms, ultra high resolution sensors, multiple camera with optical zoom lenses and software that is leveraging this hardware to get amazing results. Plus, this tech is just starting to develop and in 5-10 years will
...Show more

Puts into perspective that the RF, Z & E system we stockpiled this decade may be rendered redundant by the 2030s.

It may even result in a consolidation of digital still camera brands to just 2 players that each may only sell no more than 1 million MILCs a year.

So instead of 99.9% use smartphones it becomes 99.99% use smartphones



Sep 23, 2022 at 09:16 AM
lighthound
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p.4 #14 · p.4 #14 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


I can easily see ILCs transforming via implemented software that allows them direct and seamless interaction with all current and future social media platforms such as Twitter, Instagram, crackbook and such. I don't see this as being very difficult to implement, but then again I'm not a software guy.

I would imagine it to be a simple extra menu screen dedicated for just such a thing where it looked and smelled exactly like our cell phone apps. The software could automatically grab a Jpeg and size it to whatever the output platform requires. And of course a cell phone style keyboard so you could quickly interact with the given platform.




Sep 23, 2022 at 09:57 AM
AmbientMike
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p.4 #15 · p.4 #15 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


I've pretty much quit posting to fb since IG can sell your photos. About the last thing I want is connection to social media or the internet. Really don't like tech that much to begin with


Sep 23, 2022 at 10:08 AM
PicGuy
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p.4 #16 · p.4 #16 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


lighthound wrote:
I can easily see ILCs transforming via implemented software that allows them direct and seamless interaction with all current and future social media platforms such as Twitter, Instagram, crackbook and such. I don't see this as being very difficult to implement, but then again I'm not a software guy.

I would imagine it to be a simple extra menu screen dedicated for just such a thing where it looked and smelled exactly like our cell phone apps. The software could automatically grab a Jpeg and size it to whatever the output platform requires. And of course a cell phone style
...Show more

The integration you referenced could be done. IMO, the biggest liability to ILC systems going forward is cost, size and weight. If/when the current camera makers integrate smartphone technology it will probably be due to them having to compete with new devices that have already come to market. If they are reacting to the competition then I think they will be too late coming to the party. Besides, putting smartphone tech into a current ILC isn't going to attract many people. The main draw the new devices will have is that they are less expensive, smaller, lighter weight, much more feature rich and will be far closer to working like a smartphone from a software aspect. Their ease of use will make them much more popular with the generations that grew up using smartphones. I hope that the current camera makers are at least doing some amount of R&D regarding these devices that are going to show up eventually so they aren't caught flat footed in reacting to them.



Sep 23, 2022 at 01:24 PM
dolina
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p.4 #17 · p.4 #17 · Point and Shoot Cameras are Basically Dead


lighthound wrote:
I can easily see ILCs transforming via implemented software that allows them direct and seamless interaction with all current and future social media platforms such as Twitter, Instagram, crackbook and such. I don't see this as being very difficult to implement, but then again I'm not a software guy.

I would imagine it to be a simple extra menu screen dedicated for just such a thing where it looked and smelled exactly like our cell phone apps. The software could automatically grab a Jpeg and size it to whatever the output platform requires. And of course a cell phone style
...Show more
Consumer ILC, yes. They got wifi and bluetooth before the higher-end models.

But consumer cameras are largely extinguished.

I wanted wi-fi, bluetooth or USB3 connectivity as early as

- 2008 5D Mark II
- 2009 7D
- 2010 1D Mark IV

So I could send bird photos to Facebook for immediate ID by my ornithologist friends via 2008 iPhone 3G & later.

I even shot in RAW+ Small JPEG so that I could push the small JPEG that was compliant to the then smaller Facebook max image size without additional Facebook compression.

Canon and other digital still camera brands were either out of touch with the needs of their customers, slow to change or are limited by the tech of the time.



Sep 23, 2022 at 02:42 PM
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