mawz Offline Upload & Sell: Off
|
Frogfish wrote:
I'm pretty sure that 4K is has already supplanted 1080p worldwide. In fact your own stats prove it with 44% 4K penetration in the USA meaning the consumer does indeed care about 4K (marketing).
I bought a new TV last month, spending a month researching and going to view multiple models (Sony, Samsung, Phillips, TCL etc. etc.) before buying. Not a single TV's resolution was less than 4K with maybe 20% 8K (bear in mind I live in Shanghai). We ended up buying a Hi-Sense 4K simply because we could afford a much larger panel buying 4K than if we'd bought an 8K. All of the newer content, whether it be films, TV series et al are all broadcast in 4K.
It's only the likes of YouTube & torrents etc. than remain mostly 1080p (or 720) and that's likely because the majority of their stock is at 1080p and because they are viewed on computer monitors and phones where 4K is a less obvious improvement, and because download speeds need fast cable or WiFi and higher computer specs to replay them or send to a TV.
The big advantage with all of these new TVs though is their ability to upscale 1080p to 4K (and the 8K models upscale 4K to 8K) even though, from my sample viewing it was not quite the same as genuine 4K, it was still impressive.
As far as cameras go I absolutely agree - there is a reason Sony's best video camera is 12MP and there is no way they are not going to create a degree of separation between models or allow their stills cameras to intrude on to video cam territory.
...Show more →
Note that’s 44% of households with A 4K TV, not 44% of TV’s. Since households often have more than 1 TV, the actual penetration is worse. Growing, but still not really great.
I agree that what you can buy today is almost completely 4K, the growth of 4K today isn’t about content, but simple replacement of old TV’s. There was a big boom on HD sets a decade ago and those are aging and getting replaced with 4K sets. That’s why upscaling is such a big deal, one of the limiters on 4K sales for a long time was that HD content looked worse on 4K than on a good HD set. While the average consumer is very insensitive to IQ (which is why HD was in the same position as 4K is today for a long time), they also don’t tend to buy less quality and all their content is HD.
Most content is still HD, by an absolutely massive margin. The amount of available 4K broadcast stuff remains fairly low (the limiter is more cable boxes than the broadcast quality, it leaves the studio in 4K and arrives at the house in HD), and again, 4K cable boxes are growing more as an attrition item than anything else. The only real bastion of 4K content outside of live sports broadcasts (which were 4K long before anything else ways, hardcore sports fans were the driver for 4K more than anything else) is actually streaming content, if you have the connection for it and that’s still a poor bet for the average consumer.
4K is still a few years away from market dominance in terms of penetration. It’s actually getting there, but again largely because you can’t actually buy anything else anymore and people do eventually need to replace their TV’s.
I’d bet that somewhere around 2024 4K will break 60% penetration and really be there on the consumer end (the growth rate is accelerating, but note it’s also accelerating at exactly the same point where we are a decade after the last big boom in TV sales, and that says attrition is driving it more than anything else).
I will note that one of the other drivers of upgrading TV's today is the availability of the PS5 and Xbox One X, having real 4K game consoles does drive upgrades to 4K TV's in a way that broadcast content (aside from Sports) simply has never done.
|