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Archive 2020 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?

  
 
M_XG1_82
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p.1 #1 · p.1 #1 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


I saw a blurb on NikonRumors regarding a possible D500 update that may consolidate the D500 and D7500 lines. Any thoughts?

D500 update wishes:
1) Same pro body, features, and layout.
2) No removed features! (I want a vertical grip, dual card slots, 1/8000, etc).
3) 28 MP, BSI, NO AA filter. (scaled down 60 MP Sony sensor?).
4) 12 fps.
5) Dual CFex or Dual SD, UHS-II acceptable. Dual slots a must.
6) AF Improved a bit and Z 6 type LV focus upgrades.
7) No crop 4k.

Basically dump the D7500 and upgrade the D500 heavily. I'd pay mid $2k for this camera in a second. Include a vertical grip and D5 battery & charger at launch and I'd pre-order at $3k pricing.


----------


Also saw in the same short rumor that 600mm and 800mm PF lenses are a possibility. The 600mm has been patented and long speculated, but the 500/5.6 PF shipped instead. Nearly everybody would have preferred a 600/5.6 PF over the 500mm but c'est la vie. If you bought a 500 would you also want a 600mm? Would you sell the 500mm and pickup the 600mm. If you own the 500mm would an 800mm, say at f/6.3 (NR comments section suggested f/6.3, makes sense), get you excited.

Pricing? I'd say a 600/5.6 PF would be at least mid $4k, and possibly $6k'ish? With the huge demand on the 500mm PF it was under-priced. Nikon should under-price the 600 PF as well.

Pricing on an 800mm PF would be tricky. The 800/5.6E is $16.3k. How many does Nikon sell? One or two a month? "Killing the 800/5.6E market with a "cheap" 800/6.3 PF would probably be worth it, if you sell 4, 800PF lenses vs one 800E. So $8k for f/6.3? $10k if it's f/5.6! Center sharpness close to 800E levels with edges obviously trailing the 800E to differentiate lenses. The 800 PF would probably have to be pretty close to a 600/4E + 1.4x TC (center only), but not quite there to again differentiate lenses. An 800/6.3 PF that $4k less than a tele-converted 600/4E would be compelling? Maybe?

Your thoughts?






Jan 04, 2020 at 07:42 AM
chambeshi
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p.1 #2 · p.1 #2 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


Nothing to add on a D500 upgrade....except to agree that the burial of the D7500 is overdue, while OTH there are few DSLR cameras that qualify to be upgraded. But the D500 lineage deserves a longer life. It is a wonderful instrument

All three are Interesting ideas and the PF hopes have been discussed several times here and on DPR. The speculation is that factory challenges - quality control (?) have caused the shortages of the 500 PF. Apparently these centre around producing sufficient Phase-Fresnel elements at the wider diameter ~95mm. A 600 F5.6 pf needs a 108mm dia. element, while it is the 160mm for a 800 f5.6 PF! Both these lenses might also still need a fluorite element to tamp down the overall weight of the telephoto. So not only technical challenges but also higher costs....

So they will be sure to cost more for the buyer. I agree they both should be wonderful optics :-) And many avid wildlife photographers would flog a kidney to own either (Even both ?!?) if the IQ matches the 500 PF

Please share the NR links

thanks

Edited on Jan 04, 2020 at 09:32 AM · View previous versions



Jan 04, 2020 at 09:03 AM
this is me
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p.1 #3 · p.1 #3 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


Bury the F mount body already!


Jan 04, 2020 at 09:15 AM
chambeshi
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p.1 #4 · p.1 #4 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


Just spotted this article by Thom Hogan... if the D550 has these features, there will be upgraders!

https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/63490208

Edited on Jan 04, 2020 at 09:33 AM · View previous versions



Jan 04, 2020 at 09:17 AM
Gary Irwin
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p.1 #5 · p.1 #5 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


Thom Hogan indicates the D500 has been a poor seller for Nikon, so I don't think we're going to see an upgrade, especially since it's still top-of-class.

As for the PF's...we may yet see a 600/5.6PF, but no chance for an 800 of any sort IMO -- far too specialized in this era of shrinking markets.



Jan 04, 2020 at 09:21 AM
suteetat
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p.1 #6 · p.1 #6 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


I certainly would sell my 500PF for 600PF



Jan 04, 2020 at 09:28 AM
OwlsEyes
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p.1 #7 · p.1 #7 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


I'm a D500 lover... I think that my affair with the D500 relates to how nicely it pairs with my 200-400mm f/4VR. The combo gives me the field of view and light gathering capacity of a 300-600mm f/4 lens. This is the sweet spot for someone who shoots mammals and wildlife landscapes. Thus, I'd be interested in a higher res body... but I won't hold my breath.

I have a 500PF lens and would NOT be interested in a longer lens. In fact, I would actually prefer a 400mm f4.5 PF rather than any lens being developed. The size reduction and added light paired with a D500 would be my ideal. I could then carry my 70-200E on a second D500 and do all of the shooting I need.

As for the 500PF... long enough for me, but I am not a small bird specialist. I'll shoot vireos, warblers, etc... but more opportunistically than with purpose.



Jan 04, 2020 at 09:30 AM
ilkka_nissila
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p.1 #8 · p.1 #8 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


this is me wrote:
Bury the F mount body already!


So you don't want Nikon to stop at being 85% smaller than they were on their best day, but try to kill enough products to become 97%-98% smaller? I imagine the stockholders would love that.



Jan 04, 2020 at 09:43 AM
ilkka_nissila
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p.1 #9 · p.1 #9 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


Gary Irwin wrote:
Thom Hogan indicates the D500 has been a poor seller for Nikon, so I don't think we're going to see an upgrade, especially since it's still top-of-class.


How do you make that out? Counting serial numbers for D500 at Roland Vink's site, while the D7200 sold more copies than the D500 and D7500 combined, the D500 still sold more than the D7500. If there is a failed product among these, it would have to be considered the D7500. Or maybe I am not seeing the complete picture.

Personally I think rather than update the D500 at this point, Nikon should update the D7500 and restore the cut-off functionality (Ai metering, second card slot, vertical grip, and high-resolution sensor) and add OSPDAF from the Z series, UHS-II support, and if at all possible, introduce a new high-resolution sensor to compete with Canon's 32MP 1.6x crop sensor from the 90D.

I think the D7x00 family was the best bang for buck of the whole Nikon DSLR lineup and stripping it from important features was a mistake that should be rectified.


As for the PF's...we may yet see a 600/5.6PF, but no chance for an 800 of any sort IMO -- far too specialized in this era of shrinking markets.


But the market for these isn't shrinking. What is shrinking is the market for dedicated cameras for casual users who are not photography professionals or enthusiasts. The enthusiast/pro market is staying more or less the same size it has been for many years. This is reported by both Nikon and Canon.

The market for an 800mm is definitely small, but a PF implementation could increase this substantially. The main problems with 800mm use are
* cost
* physical length
* atmospheric degradation of image quality

The PF could address the second point. However, PF adds flare and would probably reduce the quality of long-distance photographs e.g. of larger mammals. For small birds I think it could do reasonably well.




Jan 04, 2020 at 10:42 AM
arbitrage
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p.1 #10 · p.1 #10 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


If an updated D500 had 28MP or more than I'd look at it.

I see no chance at all for an 800PF, be it 5.6 or 6.3.

If you'd asked me 1.5 years ago I would have probably said I'd ditch a 500PF for a 600PF without question. But I'm not sure I would anymore. I have a bit of an idea what a 600PF would be like for size and weight having owned the 400DOII (similar sized front element and DO). A 600PF would be longer (based on patent) and front element a little larger so weight would likely be similar at best. The magic of the 500PF for me is how light it is and that I can hold it up to my eye for mins on end waiting for a bird to do something or take flight. With the weight of the 200-600 Sony (same weight as 400DOII and probably 600PF) I can't do that as long as I'd like to sometimes. Also I continue to reduce the size of my cameras and lenses and the 600PF would be going back in the wrong direction.

So I'd like to see a 600PF come out just so I had a full understanding of exact size, weight and cost but I'm not so sure I'd spring for it and dump my 500PF.




Jan 04, 2020 at 10:45 AM
Gary Irwin
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p.1 #11 · p.1 #11 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


ilkka_nissila wrote:
How do you make that out? Counting serial numbers for D500 at Roland Vink's site, while the D7200 sold more copies than the D500 and D7500 combined, the D500 still sold more than the D7500. If there is a failed product among these, it would have to be considered the D7500. Or maybe I am not seeing the complete picture.

Personally I think rather than update the D500 at this point, Nikon should update the D7500 and restore the cut-off functionality (Ai metering, second card slot, vertical grip, and high-resolution sensor) and add OSPDAF from the Z series, UHS-II support, and
...Show more

I can't recall the exact wording he used but I recall Thom writing that D500 sales were never as strong as Nikon hoped they would be -- no where close to the number of D300's sold for example. Whether that's because of a lack of DX lenses (a pet peeve of Thom's) I don't know.

Anyway, I can understand why Nikon chose to update the D750, but can't see why they'd bother with the D500.



Jan 04, 2020 at 11:03 AM
cpe1991
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p.1 #12 · p.1 #12 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


arbitrage wrote:
If an updated D500 had 28MP or more than I'd look at it.

I see no chance at all for an 800PF, be it 5.6 or 6.3.

If you'd asked me 1.5 years ago I would have probably said I'd ditch a 500PF for a 600PF without question. But I'm not sure I would anymore. I have a bit of an idea what a 600PF would be like for size and weight having owned the 400DOII (similar sized front element and DO). A 600PF would be longer (based on patent) and front element a little larger so weight would likely be similar
...Show more

As a long time aficionado of the 400mm DO II and Canon FF DSLRs and now a newbie D500/500PF fan, I fully agree with your view. The lower weight is so much appreciated by me, and I find 500mm just on the edge of FOV on a crop, for following BIF.




Jan 04, 2020 at 11:38 AM
chambeshi
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p.1 #13 · p.1 #13 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


ilkka_nissila wrote:
How do you make that out? Counting serial numbers for D500 at Roland Vink's site, while the D7200 sold more copies than the D500 and D7500 combined, the D500 still sold more than the D7500. If there is a failed product among these, it would have to be considered the D7500. Or maybe I am not seeing the complete picture.

Personally I think rather than update the D500 at this point, Nikon should update the D7500 and restore the cut-off functionality (Ai metering, second card slot, vertical grip, and high-resolution sensor) and add OSPDAF from the Z series, UHS-II support, and
...Show more

Good points. The factors you list restricting sales of the 800 FL are likely correct and in that order. The reach of a longer focal length PF telephoto prime remains to be seen in practice, before IQ takes a penalty. Atmospheric issues are indeed too often a challenge in the tropics.

Nevertheless, the majority of wildlife photographers need more reach ie with a 600 and often more. A 800 opens up more possibilities with tighter portraits etc on confiding subjects.

Demand for high quality telephotos at (relatively) affordable prices will be a big factor in selling more new primes/zooms together with the top end cameras for sports and wildlife. Smart phones are certainly chewing into the ILC market but interest in wildlife photography seems to be growing - just ask Sigma.

If Nikon could prune production costs of their exotics substantially they could sell far more units.

But the PF Nikkor that would be the biggest hit? 300-600 f3.5/5.6E FL PF It is surely not impossible in concept/prototype but production may remain the bottleneck.

Also agree the D500 has been and still is a big hit for Nikon, especially compared to the D7500 that's emasculated in comparison. Adding features along the lines of these recently argued for will make a D500 even better
http://dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon-2020-news/january-2019-nikon-canon/can-a-better-dslr-exist.html



Jan 04, 2020 at 12:03 PM
technic
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p.1 #14 · p.1 #14 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


ilkka_nissila wrote:
How do you make that out? Counting serial numbers for D500 at Roland Vink's site, while the D7200 sold more copies than the D500 and D7500 combined, the D500 still sold more than the D7500. If there is a failed product among these, it would have to be considered the D7500. Or maybe I am not seeing the complete picture.

Personally I think rather than update the D500 at this point, Nikon should update the D7500 and restore the cut-off functionality (Ai metering, second card slot, vertical grip, and high-resolution sensor) and add OSPDAF from the Z series, UHS-II support, and
...Show more

I would like either an improved D7500 (slightly higher price acceptable) or an improved D500 with at least much faster Liveview AF, because in Liveview the D500 isn't suitable for moving subjects. I like the smaller size/weight of D7500 and if they could add D500 level PDAF and tracking capabilities to that body I would be very happy with it and I'm sure the same goes for many other wildlife hobbyists; higher res sensor is nice but only if High ISO performance doesn't suffer. Given the lower price it is easier to accept some compromises in a D7500 upgrade (e.g. if you want fast Liveview AF you could buy D7500 plus additional Z50 body for less than a D500).

I don't see a major upgrade on D500 that would make it far more attractive to a large audience. D500 is still quite expensive over here so if it isn't selling very well now, slightly upgrading spec/features at current price level will not help sales. It really is at the price level of many FF bodies nowadays making it a niche product.

Still the question remains if Nikon will bother upgrading these APS-C DSLRs with anything more than some options that were previously removed, or keep people waiting a bit longer and go straight to mirrorless APS-C alternatives like a Z70 (most likely as D7500 successor).



Jan 05, 2020 at 07:12 AM
M_XG1_82
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p.1 #15 · p.1 #15 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


Sorry to bump this older thread but a D500 (and possible/improbable update?) has been on my mind.

Some Fuji patents where posted on Fuji rumors showing a 300 f/4 DOE & 500 f/5.6 DOE (Diffractive optical element) aka PF lenses.

I think the Fuji XT4 would be a decent, if not excellent (albeit mirrorless) update to a D500. If Fuji actually gets those tele prime DOE lenses to market, I'd strongly consider a XT4 over an un-updated D500.

Any thought, suggestions or comments? Thanks.



Mar 28, 2020 at 09:45 PM
cvrle59
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p.1 #16 · p.1 #16 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


I would lie, if I wouldn't admit, if Fuji makes it, my dream would come through.
The real issue above that is, how we're gonna get out of all this C-19 mess.



Mar 28, 2020 at 09:59 PM
Steve Spencer
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p.1 #17 · p.1 #17 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


M_XG1_82 wrote:
Sorry to bump this older thread but a D500 (and possible/improbable update?) has been on my mind.

Some Fuji patents where posted on Fuji rumors showing a 300 f/4 DOE & 500 f/5.6 DOE (Diffractive optical element) aka PF lenses.

I think the Fuji XT4 would be a decent, if not excellent (albeit mirrorless) update to a D500. If Fuji actually gets those tele prime DOE lenses to market, I'd strongly consider a XT4 over an un-updated D500.

Any thought, suggestions or comments? Thanks.


I don't see the XT4 as having nearly as good of tracking AF as the D500. Nor are the patents suggesting lenses that have any better specs than the 300 and 500 PF lenses. Neither do we know if Fuji will ever build them. I think the most likely scenario is that the D500 won't get updated, but if it does I think the best one could hope for is an update like the D780. Much the same camera as the D500, but with better video capabilities and a few tweaks and improvements in performance. But the price is going to probably be much the same as the D780 as well. Not sure that a D500 for $1,500 isn't the better option and that is why I don't expect an upgrade.

Oh, and the scaled down version of the Sony 60 MP sensor in the A7r IV is a 26 MP APS-C sensor. I don't think going from 21 MP to 26 MP is enough to warrant the switch. The sensor in the D500 is still a state of the art APS-C sensor and nothing out there in APS-C land is really better in any meaningful way, IMO.



Mar 28, 2020 at 11:02 PM
bs kite
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p.1 #18 · p.1 #18 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


I don't think you'll ever see an 800PF

500PF and 600Pf were both patented, and at the time I think I would rather have seen the 600PF.

But cannot be certain of this now ...... not having it to evaluate. It might well be too big.

The 500PF sure got it done: quick, lightweight and sharp!

Only disadvantage of my 500PF is that I cannot reduce the focal length if the subject is too tight in the frame; i.e. i sometimes miss the zoom feature and I kept my 200-500.

In fact, I would like to see a lightweight 200-600 with internal focusing, but only if it was as sharp as the current 200-500..

Isn’t a new D500 a long shot? Never can tell what they will do until you read it on NR. Anyway, the existing D500 is a great camera!



Mar 28, 2020 at 11:42 PM
Chris Dees
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p.1 #19 · p.1 #19 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


bs kite wrote:
......Only disadvantage of my 500PF is that I cannot reduce the focal length if the subject is too tight in the frame; i.e. i sometimes miss the zoom feature and I kept my 200-500.

In fact, I would like to see a lightweight 200-600 with internal focusing, but only if it was as sharp as the current 200-500..

Isn’t a new D500 a long shot? Never can tell what they will do until you read it on NR. Anyway, the existing D500 is a great camera!..........


I have a 300PF on my Z6 for when my D500/500PF is too tight.

There's a 200-600 Z-lens on the radar within 2 years (according Nikon's roadmap), but I think it will be something like the 200-500 (no internal focusing). The max aperture is not know yet and I guess it'll be 6.3 (or even 7.1 like Canon's).

I rather have a Z70/90 with the qualities (or better) of a D500 and until then my D500 will stay.



Mar 29, 2020 at 04:28 AM
technic
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p.1 #20 · p.1 #20 · D500 update. 600mm & 800mm PF lenses? Speculations?


Steve Spencer wrote:
I don't see the XT4 as having nearly as good of tracking AF as the D500. Nor are the patents suggesting lenses that have any better specs than the 300 and 500 PF lenses. Neither do we know if Fuji will ever build them. I think the most likely scenario is that the D500 won't get updated, but if it does I think the best one could hope for is an update like the D780. Much the same camera as the D500, but with better video capabilities and a few tweaks and improvements in performance. But the price is
...Show more

Competition for PF/DO lenses would be great and if Fuji really makes those lenses I would give them a serious look - the lack of such tele primes has ruled out Fuji for me despite the fact that they are making really nice APS-C ML cameras. Note that the Fuji designs have the PF element on the front which probably means less weight/size savings; on the other side, if the 300mm is designed for APS-C and lack of IS (?) could keep size/weight down.

Still wondering if Nikon is going to make a D550, a D7800 (D7500 with D500 AF and D780 Liveview options) or a Z70... D550 indeed looks least likely because of the high price and the supposedly disappointing sales (of course D7500 sold less, it is much younger and had to compete for a long time with D7200). All three options are fine with me but I don't want to wait too long, and for me the D500 is too expensive (still around EUR 2500 with 16-80 kit zoom, too high entry price IMHO given that it is now four years old).



Mar 29, 2020 at 05:04 AM
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