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Archive 2019 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

1bwana1
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p.25 #1 · p.25 #1 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

There is a good potential for the industry to go through an M&A phase as revenue and profits continue to drop pushing some companies share price down. The currency for M&A is stock valuation.

Canon is setting 5 year lows

Nikon is testing 5 year lows (within $1)

Sony is within $1 of setting a 5 year high

Sony camera division is showing decent profits, but is in the electronic group that is a big money loser.

Sony has already taken big stakes in the Worlds biggest lens maker (Tamron 12%), and in Olympus (about 5%).

Sony has good currency for M&A because of its high share price. If everyone else's shares continue to fall, and Sony continues to rise, the financials of M&A become too powerful to resist. Activist investors inside of Sony are already putting intense pressure on management to do something along these lines to maximize shareholder value.

Sony loves to grow through acquisitions, that often start as taking stakes in companies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_acquisitions_by_Sony_Corporation

Now how this will play out is a black box at this point.

What would you guys like to see happen?

Edited on Aug 18, 2019 at 12:40 AM · View previous versions

Aug 18, 2019 at 12:34 AM

hans98ko
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p.25 #2 · p.25 #2 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

It is not selective and you did confirmed that when they couldn't compete, they moved out. Just like in the computer business.
So, how can anyone confirm what it would be like in a couple of years, since both of the major old timers in photography, Nikon and Canon are getting into the mirrorless game now?
Another good example you brought out is hp, they didn't get into the computer business until much later when many of the initial companies quit their business. I would call that a smart move.

Aug 18, 2019 at 12:40 AM

hans98ko
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p.25 #3 · p.25 #3 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

Yes, Sony is a much bigger company than Nikon, but would Mitsubishi a much much and bigger company than Sony willing to sell it off? Mitsubishi is the most important company in Japan because they supplied a lot of equipment to the Japanese government and their SDF. One must remember that optical elements are used everywhere, be it in aircrafts, missiles, radars, satellites, ships... 😇

Edited on Aug 18, 2019 at 01:01 AM · View previous versions

Aug 18, 2019 at 12:59 AM

1bwana1
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p.25 #4 · p.25 #4 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

I don't recall bringing up HP?

I am not suggesting that Sony will buy either Nikon, or Sony. I think it just as likely that Sony will spin off the imaging and separately the camera divisions possibly combining with one of the others. A combination with either Nikon, or Canon's camera businesses under whatever structure would create the largest camera company in the World. A very powerful presence in the industry, and a big value add for shareholders.

Have a look here to see what some of the biggest shareholders are thinking. These people have 1.5 billion in Sony stock.

https://www.astrongersony.com/

Notice that in their letter Sony cameras got one small mention. Not even on the radar as an important segment of the business.

Aug 18, 2019 at 01:01 AM

hans98ko
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p.25 #5 · p.25 #5 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

It wasn't directed at you, but was replying to GSP_
Yes, I do agree with you that the Japanese government might do something like what the Korean government did to their electronic and auto industries.

Aug 18, 2019 at 01:04 AM

1bwana1
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p.25 #6 · p.25 #6 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

hans98ko wrote:
Yes, Sony is a much bigger company than Nikon, but would Mitsubishi a much much and bigger company than Sony willing to sell it off? Mitsubishi is the most important company in Japan because they supplied a lot of equipment to the Japanese government and their SDF. One must remember that optical elements are used everywhere, be it in aircrafts, missiles, radars, satellites, ships... 😇

Mitsubishi owns less than 5% of Nikon shares. The Mitsubishi Group will do whatever is financially beneficial to them. We have no way of knowing what that is.

Aug 18, 2019 at 01:21 AM

hans98ko
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p.25 #7 · p.25 #7 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

Don't just look at the %tage of ownership, feel the underlying force of all those who own a %tage of the company as a whole to their national security. 👹

Oh! Did I bring up something that resemble Trump talk? 😋

Aug 18, 2019 at 01:26 AM

Two23
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p.25 #8 · p.25 #8 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

hans98ko wrote:
Don't just look at the %tage of ownership, feel the underlying force of all those who own a %tage of the company as a whole to their national security. 👹

Oh! Did I bring up something that resemble Trump talk? 😋

ALL politicians like to twist things around. I dislike political crap on the forum BTW.

Kent in SD

Aug 18, 2019 at 09:09 AM

hans98ko
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p.25 #9 · p.25 #9 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

I am with you on disliking political crap, but realistically, what is not political crap nowadays? Almost everything is.
I was introduced to political science as one of the prerequisite course in the United States when I took my degree decades ago. 😁

Aug 18, 2019 at 10:08 AM

snapsy
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p.25 #10 · p.25 #10 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

My running CIPA ILC shipment chart, updated with July 2019 data:
https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-pHqSSZK/0/42e9abf6/O/i-pHqSSZK.png

Sep 08, 2019 at 11:50 AM

1bwana1
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p.25 #11 · p.25 #11 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

Snapsy,

Interesting that unit volume, and unit value seem to be inversely correlated especially in the last 1/2 of the year. Could this be because we are looking at shipments from manufacturers to resellers, who must stock up for the Holiday season by October, and that those larger retailers selling mass markets are mostly buying lower end offerings? Or are high priced cameras usually released during the last quarter? Or some of both?

Sep 08, 2019 at 12:15 PM

snapsy
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p.25 #12 · p.25 #12 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

1bwana1 wrote:
Snapsy,

Interesting that unit volume, and unit value seem to be inversely correlated especially in the last 1/2 of the year. Could this be because we are looking at shipments from manufacturers to resellers, who must stock up for the Holiday season by October, and that those larger retailers selling mass markets are mostly buying lower end offerings? Or are high priced cameras usually released during the last quarter? Or some of both?

The unit volume increase for the Christmas inventory build appears to be concentrated in Aug/Sep, and the corresponding ASP appears about constant in that area, so it looks like sales are pretty balanced between lower and higher priced offerings in those two months. Unit volume drops significantly in Nov/Dec, whereas ASP increases - I'm guessing this is because shipments for Nov/Dec correspond to non-seasonal demand, which perhaps is more weighted to enthusiasts/pros than average consumers. There may also be some correlation to the historical release dates of new prosumer/pro models.

Sep 08, 2019 at 12:31 PM

1bwana1
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p.25 #13 · p.25 #13 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

Exactly as I was thinking.

Sep 08, 2019 at 12:39 PM

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