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Archive 2019 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

HelenaN
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p.2 #1 · p.2 #1 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

Even if smart phones in future would somehow give better image quality than a more advanced camera (like the ones we have now from Sony, Nikon etc.) I'd still prefer the advanced camera because I want a proper tool with dedicated buttons, manual focus, viewfinder etc. Hope I'm not the only one and that they will still be there in future and not cost a fortune.

Apr 10, 2019 at 01:18 AM

sflxn
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p.2 #2 · p.2 #2 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

I'm not at all surprise. We've all predicted this. The camera makers are the least innovative companies in tech. All these cameras are essentially the same and have been for years. I read an interview with Sony recently where they said they need to learn more about computational photography. How out of touch was that guy? Sony kicked off the consumer computational photography years ago in their DSLT and then didn't take it any further. Most of those software engineers are probably at Google now. Yet, that Sony guy says they need to learn more about it. These guys don't know a good thing when it hits them in the face. Sony, for all their aggressive tech innovation is way too conservative to fend off Silicon Valley. That makes all the other guys, *cough* Canon, Nikon, look like they're stuck decades back.

If they dwindle down to 3 companies in the future, it won't matter. Photography is bigger than the traditional camera makers. Even if all of them disappears, photography will continue on. It'll just be other players (e.g. phones, etc). I don't really care if I shoot P&S, DSLR, mirrorless, or smartphone, as long as the images comes out in a way that pleases me. I think most camera forum contributors are still tied to the traditional camera format but the world moves on with or without them and eventually dinosaurs go extinct and end up in the pages of history books.

Apr 10, 2019 at 01:18 AM

charles.K
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p.2 #3 · p.2 #3 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

I love the tactile approach to capturing images and it is why the Leica RF style is still so popular.

Apr 10, 2019 at 01:33 AM

vdo1
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p.2 #4 · p.2 #4 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

I see you pretty much equate “tech” with “software”. Using the later term would make things more clear though.

What would Silicon Valley do? “Cloud photography”? Some subscription scheme with annoying ads and siphoning of personal data on top of it?

sflxn wrote:
I'm not at all surprise. We've all predicted this. The camera makers are the least innovative companies in tech. All these cameras are essentially the same and have been for years. I read an interview with Sony recently where they said they need to learn more about computational photography. How out of touch was that guy? Sony kicked off the consumer computational photography years ago in their DSLT and then didn't take it any further. Most of those software engineers are probably at Google now. Yet, that Sony guy says they need to learn more about it. These guys don't...Show more →

Apr 10, 2019 at 01:47 AM

chambeshi
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p.2 #5 · p.2 #5 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

vdo1 wrote:
I see you pretty much equate “tech” with “software”. Using the later term would make things more clear though.

What would Silicon Valley do? “Cloud photography”? Some subscription scheme with annoying ads and siphoning of personal data on top of it?

Consider how many owners of Canikon etc are more than happy with 25mp. Sensor performance is levelling out; as Thom Hogan keeps arguing the market is stabilizing. The very good times to sell lots of digital cameras are gone. The market began its decline a few years ago. Yes, the smartphone is one reason but the ILC industry has been squeezed by its own resounding successes at blending traditional concepts of photography with new Tech.

Besides getting out even better performance in low-light - ie high IQ at high ISO (the final frontier of sensor R&D), autofocus is the last frontier to conquer. This is where AI and pattern recognition etc demands top end, nanotech computational photography; the challenges are to get trainable software recognizing images very rapidly and feeding it to the ILC algorithms, namely AF. Sony are correct and Nikon have been quietly working at this since before the D3 (at least). Their key industry lead in the best AF is plain to see in the triumvirate [D5, D500, D850]. The allied challenge is to integrate super fast AF algorithms into ILCs. see this article posted here some time back :-
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/12/how-computers-got-shockingly-good-at-recognizing-images/

This advanced image recognition on-the-go will sell quite a few upgrades. But the market for super fast AF ILC is in niche genres . We know who will buy these top end cameras. Only the GAS afflicted geek will buy one for families' photo albums

Apr 10, 2019 at 02:04 AM

chambeshi
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p.2 #6 · p.2 #6 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

Sigma CEO sounds upbeat:
"....Your father told you “People take pictures in their happiest and most moving moments. A camera and lens are close to life’s emotions. It a rewarding job”.."

https://www.lenstip.com/143.1-article-Interview_with_Kazuto_Yamaki_-_CEO_of_Sigma_Corporation.html

Apr 10, 2019 at 02:21 AM

vdo1
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p.2 #7 · p.2 #7 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

You are correct that improvements with camera software can still be made and AF is a very good example. However this will be the camera manufacturers task. I don’t see how Silicon Valley would help other than emitting some broad patents that don’t help anyone implementing anything, but would help to extort those that actually managed to make things work.
Call me cynical but I’ve seen this over and over again.

chambeshi wrote:
Consider how many owners of Canikon etc are more than happy with 25mp. Sensor performance is levelling out; as Thom Hogan keeps arguing the market is stabilizing. The very good times to sell lots of digital cameras are gone. The market began its decline a few years ago. Yes, the smartphone is one reason but the ILC industry has been squeezed by its own resounding successes at blending traditional concepts of photography with new Tech.

Besides getting out even better performance in low-light - ie high IQ at high ISO (the final frontier of sensor R&D), autofocus is the last...Show more →

Apr 10, 2019 at 03:22 AM

chambeshi
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p.2 #8 · p.2 #8 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

Apr 10, 2019 at 03:41 AM

1bwana1
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p.2 #9 · p.2 #9 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

vdo1 wrote:
You are correct that improvements with camera software can still be made and AF is a very good example. However this will be the camera manufacturers task. I don’t see how Silicon Valley would help other than emitting some broad patents that don’t help anyone implementing anything, but would help to extort those that actually managed to make things work.
Call me cynical but I’ve seen this over and over again.

I am not so confident that the camera manufacturers will be the driving force for AI technology in imaging. The big uses for AI in imaging will come from autonomous uses in autos, flight, military, industry, medical etc.. These areas of application have R&D budgets that dwarf the photography business. It will be chip, sensor, software based advancements that get ported over to the photography industry. The companies that are working on these technologies at base levels like Sony's sensor division, will be in a much stronger position to benefit, and incorporate the new technologies into photography. This is becoming more and more clear lately.

Apr 10, 2019 at 03:45 AM

RobCD
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p.2 #10 · p.2 #10 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

HelenaN wrote:
Even if smart phones in future would somehow give better image quality than a more advanced camera (like the ones we have now from Sony, Nikon etc.) I'd still prefer the advanced camera because I want a proper tool with dedicated buttons, manual focus, viewfinder etc. Hope I'm not the only one and that they will still be there in future and not cost a fortune.

I think this is similar to the loyal Blackberry users years ago. I think you have a valid reason for preferring the dedicated buttons and other characteristics of a dedicated camera but I suspect that for the majority of users the benefits and advancements with smartphones will overshadow any advantages you get with dedicated P&S cameras. The sheer volume of smartphones being sold allows for so much more R&D, economies of scale, etc. I'm sure some company will continue to try to sell lower end P&S cameras but my prediction is that those cameras will be even less compelling than they are today as smartphones continue to advance which means they will sell even less volume and so will either have to be priced too high or be too limited in capabilities. I just don't see much of a future for the lower end of the camera market.

Apr 10, 2019 at 07:11 AM

chez
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p.2 #11 · p.2 #11 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

1bwana1 wrote:
I am not so confident that the camera manufacturers will be the driving force for AI technology in imaging. The big uses for AI in imaging will come from autonomous uses in autos, flight, military, industry, medical etc.. These areas of application have R&D budgets that dwarf the photography business. It will be chip, sensor, software based advancements that get ported over to the photography industry. The companies that are working on these technologies at base levels like Sony's sensor division, will be in a much stronger position to benefit, and incorporate the new technologies into photography. This is becoming...Show more →

Exactly...in fact even the advances in sensor tech was not developed by the traditional camera companies but by the likes of Sony for the phone market and adapted to the other camera markets. AI is huge right now in many areas...much, much larger than the small camera market. Cameras will get the trickle down affect, but surely will not be the drivers of AI tech by any means.

Apr 10, 2019 at 08:16 AM

LBJ2
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p.2 #12 · p.2 #12 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

HelenaN wrote:
Even if smart phones in future would somehow give better image quality than a more advanced camera (like the ones we have now from Sony, Nikon etc.) I'd still prefer the advanced camera because I want a proper tool with dedicated buttons, manual focus, viewfinder etc. Hope I'm not the only one and that they will still be there in future and not cost a fortune.

I agree(many of us advanced photographers agree) We do need the control of an advanced camera and lens for many applications.

Not a popular opinion, but I think the Zeiss ZX1 concept is the only camera pointed to the future. Maybe the ZX1 isn't the camera to get us there, who knows. But the concept is certainly on the right track IMO. Most professionals need the ability to quickly/almost immediately upload images. Many clients of all ages expect this. Even large events with lots of images many will ask for at least a few to upload and share immediately.

Personally I don't want to upload anything until I've had a chance to tweak. Right now I have to transfer to a mobile device load app, edit, then upload to whatever platform requested. Lot of fumbling even when it works as expected 😉 I typically don't do a lot of advanced editing in general so something like the ZX1/Adobe sliders are good for what I described. Otherwise I sit down and break out the big machines.

I would prefer an ILC instead of the fixed lens like the ZX1. But the ZX1 concept IMO is long overdue and am really happy somebody is thinking about it. I just never expected it would be Zeiss !

Apr 10, 2019 at 02:46 PM

1bwana1
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p.2 #13 · p.2 #13 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

chez wrote:
Exactly...in fact even the advances in sensor tech was not developed by the traditional camera companies but by the likes of Sony for the phone market and adapted to the other camera markets. AI is huge right now in many areas...much, much larger than the small camera market. Cameras will get the trickle down affect, but surely will not be the drivers of AI tech by any means.

Well, I just got a whole bunch of new features with Sony's free upgrade to my a7RIII this morning. Much of them AI driven including more advanced Eye AF, and the new Animal AF. Did a little testing on the neighbors dog and on all kinds of animals with video on the screen. So far it is looking to be amazing. This may bring to wildlife photographers the benefits the people photographers have enjoyed with Sony for the last few years. An a9 with silent shooting at 20 frames a second, realtime tracking, and Animal Eye AF, may be a game changer. Between this, and the other features it is like getting a new camera in some areas.

I am very pleased with the direction mirrorless cameras are taking the industry.

Apr 11, 2019 at 11:34 AM

chez
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p.2 #14 · p.2 #14 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

1bwana1 wrote:
Well, I just got a whole bunch of new features with Sony's free upgrade to my a7RIII this morning. Much of them AI driven including more advanced Eye AF, and the new Animal AF. Did a little testing on the neighbors dog and on all kinds of animals with video on the screen. So far it is looking to be amazing. This may bring to wildlife photographers the benefits the people photographers have enjoyed with Sony for the last few years. An a9 with silent shooting at 20 frames a second, realtime tracking, and Animal Eye AF, may be a...Show more →

Yes it's nice to see Sony release more advanced capabilities via firmware...keeps existing gear current.

But object detection and tracking AI has been around for a while already in other fields and it's finally trickling down to the cameras.

Apr 11, 2019 at 12:29 PM

1bwana1
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p.2 #15 · p.2 #15 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

Yes, the DJI drone line has had active tracking for a while now. Not only can it keep the camera on a moving object, the drone can follow that object, maintain distance, and avoid crashing into obstructions.

The technology behind this is Sony sensor based. Another reason that the other camera companies will have trouble keeping up. Sony is learning so much from all the other application that their sensor division is supporting.

https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video;_ylt=Awr9CWw8fK9c2dwAyAdXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTE0cmlhNmxrBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjY4MjFfMQRzZWMDcGl2cw--?p=dji+active+tracking&fr2=piv-web&fr=yfp-t

Apr 11, 2019 at 12:42 PM

technic
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p.2 #16 · p.2 #16 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

vdo1 wrote:
I see you pretty much equate “tech” with “software”. Using the later term would make things more clear though.

What would Silicon Valley do? “Cloud photography”? Some subscription scheme with annoying ads and siphoning of personal data on top of it?

Agree, and besides I think the interview makes it clear that the Sony representative has a background in this area and knows the hardware isn't quite there yet to support this "computational" vision. Seems to me he is very honest and sees the potential opportunities, but also the practical limitations of the current hardware. We need huge improvements in processing power, batteries, cooling etc. to make this happen (and not just for e.g. very fast AF like in A9). Smartphones have a big advantage in this area due to numbers and different type of use; with the ongoing decline in ILC camera sales the gap will probably become even bigger. But if anyone can do it, it is Sony.

I would like more "computational" options in an ILC like those in the Nokia Pureview 808 from many years ago, or some of the functions of current top smartphones. But I sure hope we never get the invasive, distracting, vulnerable and exploitative (software) technology of current smartphones in our cameras.

Apr 11, 2019 at 02:25 PM

Steve Spencer
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p.2 #17 · p.2 #17 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

technic wrote:
Agree, and besides I think the interview makes it clear that the Sony representative has a background in this area and knows the hardware isn't quite there yet to support this "computational" vision. Seems to me he is very honest and sees the potential opportunities, but also the practical limitations of the current hardware. We need huge improvements in processing power, batteries, cooling etc. to make this happen (and not just for e.g. very fast AF like in A9). Smartphones have a big advantage in this area due to numbers and different type of use; with the ongoing decline in...Show more →
The decline in ILCs is small, just 1.5% last year in dollars, but the decline in point and shoot cameras is huge, 35% last year. The market has stabilized for ILCs and except for the very low end I think will remain pretty stable.

Apr 11, 2019 at 02:50 PM

sungphoto
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p.2 #18 · p.2 #18 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

The smartphone has killed the point and shoot for sure, but it's also put a camera in more people's hands than ever before in history, with more images taken in a single day than the entirety of images in existence 150 years ago, and estimates of over a trillion photos taken each year.

What that means for camera makers in industry terms are feeder markets that are larger than ever before, so it makes sense that camera makers seem to be popping up with new models or revivals of old brands all the time.

The fact of the matter is that the only real trend that can be gleaned from the last few years of CIPA data is that change is a constant. It's fun to throw around theories, but if there's someone in this thread that can actually make accurate predictions from questionable aggregate data sets (CIPA is a for-profit company that sells research back to retailers and manufacturers so its in their best interest not to point out flaws with their data collection and analytics methods), then they shouldn't be hanging out on forums - they should be charging companies millions for being able to tell the future.

Apr 11, 2019 at 04:02 PM

technic
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p.2 #19 · p.2 #19 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

Steve Spencer wrote:
The decline in ILCs is small, just 1.5% last year in dollars, but the decline in point and shoot cameras is huge, 35% last year. The market has stabilized for ILCs and except for the very low end I think will remain pretty stable.

That remains to be seen because the trend is smaller sales numbers but more expensive ILC cameras; I doubt things will stay like that especially when the current "easy money" climate changes and/or the real economy becomes relevant again.

Apr 11, 2019 at 04:07 PM

charles.K
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p.2 #20 · p.2 #20 · Latest CIPA February 2019 report trend

sungphoto wrote:
The smartphone has killed the point and shoot for sure, but it's also put a camera in more people's hands than ever before in history, with more images taken in a single day than the entirety of images in existence 150 years ago, and estimates of over a trillion photos taken each year.

What that means for camera makers in industry terms are feeder markets that are larger than ever before, so it makes sense that camera makers seem to be popping up with new models or revivals of old brands all the time.

The fact of the matter is that the...Show more →

Totally agree! The smart phone revolution combined with social media has made image/video taking within the reach of everyone. Growing up I remembered taking shots and then waiting a week for them to be developed. We would then cull the images and send them via mail to family and friends and place the better shots in an album. The process was very strung out and the ability to share was only as good the mail service.

In spite of the CIPA data, image/videos capturing and sharing has never been so strong!

Apr 11, 2019 at 04:28 PM

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