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Archive 2019 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

dolina
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p.1 #1 · p.1 #1 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

Looking at the last transition from FD to EF (EOS) gives us an idea how the transition from EF to RF systems may play out.

Timeline
1981 - "New F-1" was introduced
1985 - Four FD lense models were introduced
1987 - EF system was introduced
1989 - New FD200mm f/1.8L: Last FD lens was introduced
1990 - Canon T60: Last FD body was introduced. This is a consumer body equivalent to a EOS Rebel
1992 - Last New F-1, top of the line FD body, was manufactured. This a pro body equivalent to a EOS 1D
1994 - New F-1 body was discontinued
1995 - Last batch of FD lenses was manufactured
2004 - New F-1 body factory support ends

It appears to me that we can only look forward to at best 1 last round of EOS bodies from Canon. Per CR's Buyer's Guide these are the possible timeframe of release if we base the product cycle on average days between releases.

March 2019 - 1D X Mark II replacement
September 2019 - 7D Mark II replacement
February 2020 - 5Ds R replacement
April 2020 - 5D Mark IV replacement

Note: List isnt exhaustive of Canon bodies.

I expect all of these bodies to be refreshed before July 2020 for the Tokyo Summer Olympics.

With Canon devoting all their, now very limited, resources to the RF mount leads me to believe that new EOS bodies by 2024 or 2025 will not happen.

Feb 02, 2019 at 08:37 AM

jcolwell
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p.1 #2 · p.1 #2 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

I think the FD to EF transition is a poor forecasting model for the current EF to RF situation. When Canon shifted from FD to EF, all FD shooters were out of luck. No FD lens could be used on an EOS camera, barring a special adapter (with optics) for FD super-telephotos. In the current situation, all EF lenses can be used on the new R-series bodies. If an existing EOS DSLR breaks, it can be seamlessly replaced by a new R-series camera (as seamlessly as any move to a different body).

I'm confident that the past, continuing support for FD cameras was for those shooting pros that did not make the move to EOS, in the hopes that they would eventually make the move. There's no way that Canon will introduce a new top-level EOS/EF DSLR body five years after the R-series was introduced. I think the only significant EOS/EF body that Canon will introduce in the future (ever) will be the 1DXIII, and only then if they can't juice-up the R-series to that performance level, in time for the 2020 Olympics.

Feb 02, 2019 at 08:57 AM

ggreene
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p.1 #3 · p.1 #3 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

I hate to say this but unless they have something exceptional in the works the home turf Tokyo Olympics will be embarrassing for them. Does anyone think they are anywhere near a 1DR? Yet another incremental update to the 1DX2 DSLR is going to look awfully antiquated going up against a Sony A9II. Hell, with the new FW coming out it's going to have troubles against the A9 original.

I have no idea where Canon is in their development cycles but I hope they are speeding up the process as best they can especially for body tech. They look woefully behind.

I can easily see that Sept 2019 7D3 happening and then a couple days later Sony announces the A7000 that blows it away.

Feb 02, 2019 at 09:19 AM

TeamSpeed
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p.1 #4 · p.1 #4 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

The 5DS DSLR line is dead, its replacement will be in the mirrorless lineup.

I do expect a 7D2 replacement or 80D replacement, perhaps one that brings them together and replaces them both, and then a Rebel or two.

I am on the fence on what to expect for a 1DXIII. I think Canon would instead be putting all their effort into a pro mirrorless to replace that, and it might be announced at the end of the year, or the start of 2020.

So perhaps 2-3 DSLRs and that will be it. Henceforth, all RF and M lenses, and mirrorless bodies, with an occasional super duper cheap DSLR Rebel to clear out parts bins and get consumers willing to buy a camera kit at a wholesale club to buy those.at lower prices. We saw low end Rebels with the 18Mpx sensor years after all the crops went to 24Mpx, so I suspect they will find a way to make money on all DSLR parts while getting rid of them.

Feb 02, 2019 at 09:21 AM

gdanmitchell
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p.1 #5 · p.1 #5 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

I don't think anyone knows for sure how this will play out — I suspect that even Canon's plans could be flexible enough to react to how the market responds.

My hunch is that there may be another 1D-series DSLR body, but not another 5D-series DSLR — I feel that those will be mirrorless. If there are any more new cropped sensor DSLRs, they would possibly be low-end "Rebel" series models.

Going forward, I don't expect many if any new EF lenses, aside from possibly minor updates to existing designs. In other words, it will be some time before Canon stops selling EF lenses, especially since people buying DSLR cameras now will still form a market for them! But development and introduction of new EF lenses isn't likely to continue much at all.

Feel free to come back in three years and either congratulate me for my foresight or mock me for my blindness! ;-)

Feb 02, 2019 at 11:02 AM

technic
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p.1 #6 · p.1 #6 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

TeamSpeed wrote:
The 5DS DSLR line is dead, its replacement will be in the mirrorless lineup.

I do expect a 7D2 replacement or 80D replacement, perhaps one that brings them together and replaces them both, and then a Rebel or two.

I am on the fence on what to expect for a 1DXIII. I think Canon would instead be putting all their effort into a pro mirrorless to replace that, and it might be announced at the end of the year, or the start of 2020.

So perhaps 2-3 DSLRs and that will be it. Henceforth, all RF and M lenses, and mirrorless bodies,...Show more →

They will make the 90D and label it 7D3 with matching price, for those who stick to Canon DSLR whatever happens. It is difficult to see them putting real effort into a final top level APS-C DSLR camera, given how much they are behind the competition (e.g. D500 and possibly soon A7000/mini-A9) and also given the usual two steps forward, one step back (or worse ...) policy with new Canon models. I agree that they will be dipping into the Rebel parts bin for at least some other years; these cameras are so cheap to produce (the low end models) that in the near future no decent APS-C ML camera can compete on sales price. A 1DX3 makes sense irrespective of how much innovation there is - again for those (Pro users) who want to buy a new Canon DSLR irrespective of how big the upgrade really is.

Let's see what materializes for that rumored 1.8/50 RF lens to get more clues about future direction at Canon. More nifty-fifty, or a $500 entry model that weighs 2x more than the 1.8/50STM? All innovation directed at RF lenses to try to lure users to the new R cameras?

Feb 02, 2019 at 11:11 AM

mogul
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p.1 #7 · p.1 #7 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

If they follow Sony's example, I would expect another round of top of line DSLR's...Sony released the 77II & 99II after the major switch to mirrorless.

Feb 02, 2019 at 11:32 AM

M. Best
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p.1 #8 · p.1 #8 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

My guesses for future DSRL bodies
1Dx3: I think for sure that this will happen. I don't think they have the technology to make it into a mirror less body.
5D5: My crystal ball says no
6D3: Also a no. For the most part, this is what the EOS M is
5Ds/5DsR: Dead. I think this would be an easy mirror less body to make. High MP with decent FPS. This would also take advantage of the RF lens lineup.
7D3: This idk about. Being a crop sensor, I can see them being able to use the RF mount and get away with the challenges that FF presents. I'll say a maybe.
90D: Also a maybe
Rebels: Yes, I think there will be a couple, if not several more EOS bodies

Feb 02, 2019 at 01:05 PM

Scoobert
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p.1 #9 · p.1 #9 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

I predict a 1600 dollar mirrorless rp will be next

https://www.sonyalpharumors.com/canon-will-launch-a-new-1600-ff-mirrorless-on-feb-14-and-sony-answers-with-a-200-price-drop-on-the-sony-a7iii/amp/

Feb 02, 2019 at 01:21 PM

TeamSpeed
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p.1 #10 · p.1 #10 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

Well once it is announced, we will know what Canon removed from the EOS R to drop the price this far. For that price delta, I cannot see too many wanting to buy that camera over the EOS R or other options... UNLESS Canon continues playing the game where they reduce the sensor resolution/DR/noise management and burst speeds, but then offers one new thing like IBIS.

If this camera has a 24Mpx FF with IBIS and a more mediocre AF system, then perhaps it will sell. I am curious what isn't there for $600 less over the EOS R.

Feb 02, 2019 at 01:28 PM

Jeff Nolten
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p.1 #11 · p.1 #11 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

I'm in the process of trading my 5D3 for a 6D2 + 24-70 f4 as backup/alternate to my 5D4 + 24-105. Part of my motivation for this, besides weight savings, is all the apocalyptic predictions that EF and optical viewfinders are dead.

So I predict that if EF and OVF are truly dead then I won't be buying any new gears for the foreseeable future.

Feb 02, 2019 at 02:02 PM

robinlee
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p.1 #12 · p.1 #12 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

Scoobert wrote:
I predict a 1600 dollar mirrorless rp will be next

https://www.sonyalpharumors.com/canon-will-launch-a-new-1600-ff-mirrorless-on-feb-14-and-sony-answers-with-a-200-price-drop-on-the-sony-a7iii/amp/

I predict continuity of crippling by Canon

Feb 02, 2019 at 04:58 PM

Lauchlan Toal
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p.1 #13 · p.1 #13 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

I'd say there's still some room for DSLRs for another generation or two. 1D, definitely - one or two more, depending on how good the next one is. 5D and 6D will likely merge into one single pro workhorse body, and that could have another couple generations in it. 7D feels like it could have a couple more generations since many people still trust DSLR AF more and may not be able to afford the 1D, but it feels like Canon's given up on that line considering that it still hasn't been updated despite having lagged behind competition for what seems like ages now. On the low end there's still room for a Rebel and xxD I think, even if upgrades are incremental at best. They really need to get 4K into the xxD before giving up on it at least, as Canon's video AF advantage isn't too useful if no one wants the video.

Feb 02, 2019 at 05:31 PM

ggreene
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p.1 #14 · p.1 #14 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

TeamSpeed wrote:
I am on the fence on what to expect for a 1DXIII. I think Canon would instead be putting all their effort into a pro mirrorless to replace that, and it might be announced at the end of the year, or the start of 2020.

I hope you are right. I'm quite sure Sony will have an A9II ready by then and if they let Nikon use the A9mk1 sensor Nikon will be ready with a ML pro D6.

Feb 02, 2019 at 05:37 PM

luminaire
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p.1 #15 · p.1 #15 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

Given the recent updates to make the Mk III Big Whites I reckon there's one more iteration left in the 1DX, and then it'll go mirrorless in time for the new RF DO lenses ( 2021? )

Rebels: as sugested, clear-out the parts-bins and then push that market segment to EOS M. Drop EF-S ASAP.

7D3 and the 90D crowd: So many airshow shooters I know are crying out for a 7D3 whilst stockpiling 7D2s, just in case it's the end of that line. A tiny number of other very rich ones went to 1DX, some other money-bags went to 5D4, a few cheapskates to 80D. I have a suspicion that'll be Canon's strategy, segment the market and discontinue the 7D.

Edited on Feb 02, 2019 at 05:41 PM · View previous versions

Feb 02, 2019 at 05:39 PM

smmokan16
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p.1 #16 · p.1 #16 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

TeamSpeed wrote:
UNLESS Canon continues playing the game where they reduce the sensor resolution/DR/noise management and burst speeds, but then offers one new thing like IBIS.
.

So you think they'll release a camera that shoots 1 frame per second? That's about the only way it'll get slower than the EOS R.

Feb 02, 2019 at 05:40 PM

johnvanr
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p.1 #17 · p.1 #17 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

Where do you get the idea that Canon now has limited resources?

If anything, all these companies are pouring resources into the medical and security fields first. We reap the benefits in terms of tech they develop for those moneymakers.

I wouldn't be surprised if we've seen the last DSLR from Canon, except maybe the 1DX series if they haven't matched Sony's AF yet for mirrorless.

Feb 02, 2019 at 06:15 PM

sirimiri
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p.1 #18 · p.1 #18 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

Canon might just produce mirrorless EF bodies?

Feb 02, 2019 at 06:57 PM

TeamSpeed
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p.1 #19 · p.1 #19 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

sirimiri wrote:
Canon might just produce mirrorless EF bodies?

Canon already stated that they wouldn't do this. There are a few reasons they don't want to make new EF lenses or bodies that use them.

Feb 02, 2019 at 07:06 PM

TeamSpeed
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p.1 #20 · p.1 #20 · One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

johnvanr wrote:
Where do you get the idea that Canon now has limited resources?

If anything, all these companies are pouring resources into the medical and security fields first. We reap the benefits in terms of tech they develop for those moneymakers.

I wouldn't be surprised if we've seen the last DSLR from Canon, except maybe the 1DX series if they haven't matched Sony's AF yet for mirrorless.

We haven't seen the last of the DSLRs, Keep in mind they had multiple R&D branches going, and several cameras are quite old in their life, and their replacements would have already been in the works. There will be a handful that come out.

Feb 02, 2019 at 07:09 PM

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